Unverified Voracity Defeats A Virus Comment Count

Brian September 30th, 2011 at 4:27 PM

What was up with Roh. Mike Rothstein has more details on Craig Roh's fall camp malady:

Before Michigan's fall camp started, Craig Roh went back to Arizona and spent time with his family. His brothers had mononucleosis over the summer, but Craig returned to Michigan feeling fine.

Three days into camp that changed. He was tired. By the end of the day, he ended up in bed with the chills.

Was it possible? Could he have contracted it, too?

He didn't know. What he did know, his father, Fred, said, is he was in bed and uncomfortably sick. The next day, Craig woke up with fever of 102 degrees. He went to the doctor searching for answers, and received antibiotics. Doctors had diagnosed him not with mono but a respiratory infection.

He skipped one day of practice and began to feel a little better. Cleared by doctors, even though his energy level wasn't at 100 percent, Roh returned to practice of his own volition. The sickness, though, had done its damage.

Coaches started dogging him, Roh got down on himself when he didn't play that well the first couple games, but he had his epiphany and now he's picked it back up. Hopefully we see him hit the level of performance everyone was projecting before the season.

Hatchdate. Austin Hatch is a few days away from returning home:

Per Caterbury HS head coach (and close friend) Dan Kline… Michigan recruit Austin Hatch will come home Oct. 9. Kline said rehab went amazing.

FCOA costs. The Bylaw Blog breaks down the full cost for full cost of attendance scholarships:

Q: How much would it cost?

Because the proposal covers all sports, cost depends on how many sports an institution sponsors. Stanford’s associate AD of business strategy and revenue enhancement estimated it would cost the school $750,000. Stanford runs the largest athletic department in the country, so that number might be considered to be something of a maximum.

To figure out a rough estimate of cost, we need to figure out the average athletic department. The NCAA’s membership report has the average number of men’s and women’s sports sponsored by FBS, FCS, and non-football institutions. The NCAA’s sport sponsorship and participation report lists which sports are sponsored by the most institutions. So combining the two, we can figure out an “average” athletic department and estimate the costs based on scholarship limits. And those costs are:

  • FBS: $504,400
  • FCS: $436,400
  • Non-Football: $282,400

Obvious in those figures is the effect of football. An FBS football team can expect an increased scholarship bill of up to $170,000 while an FCS program should set aside $126,000. The range for athletic departments that fully fund all their teams would probably be somewhere between $200,000 and $750,000.

Good by me; any schools sponsoring sports can hack a small amount out of administrative and coaching salaries to cover that. And if you can't, the rule is conference-based. Not everyone will have to adopt it. Those that do will have to do it for all athletes.

This won't have much of an impact for Michigan's bottom line or recruiting prospects in major sports since everyone they're recruiting against will immediately adopt the FCOA proposal. It will help a bit in hockey, especially if schools in the NCHC can't make that decision without making it for their entire athletic department. Is the MAC going FCOA? What about whatever conferences North Dakota and UMD are in?

BONUS: The Bylaw Blog shares my skepticism that the four-year scholarship proposal is anything more than window dressing unless the same restrictions on revoking scholarships mid-year are applied for the period.

Break even? I what aah? The Mathlete's numbers on the Hoke fourth and two:

Brian is in love with it, but how much was it worth? Punt from 48 gets to the 17. Team down 14 with the ball around the 17 with 2-3 minutes left in the first half win about 8.0% of the time. A successful conversion gives Michigan a 93.2% chance of victory where a failed attempt drops your chances to 88.2%. To break even, Michigan would need to have a confidence that they had about a 75% chance of conversion. National average on 3rd and 2 is about 58.5%. Michigan has been a top 25 level 3rd and short team so the decision was probably about a break even if you account for Michigan’s offense.

This case is a bit closer than I expected, but if you believe our offense was bound to score, which it obviously did, a 21 point half time lead is good for a 97.1% chance of victory. Even if Michigan can get a field goal and run out the clock, an average conversion rate makes the decision break even

If this seems like a weird result given the other Mathlete chart…


…it is an effect of being up 14-0. If the score was tied the win percentage effect would be a landslide in favor of going for it. If you're measuring by projected margin in the final score it's a large +EV decision, but if all you care about is having one more point than the other team it's about break-even for average teams going up against each other. At the time it seemed like the defense could fall apart at any time, which still swings the decision to an easy go-for-it to me.

You need to get another MBA. Angelique Chengelis put up a story on In The Big House, which everyone hates, that included this quote from our new Chief Marketing Officer:

"It's gaining traction," Lochmann said. "We know there are people who love it and some people who hate it, but our core customers — the players — they want to hear it."

This sentence displays a lack of knowledge about public relations, marketing, economics, taste, and common sense. The "core customers" are your customers, who hate In The Big House.

Meanwhile, the Defilement is hinted at further in a caption:

“We’d love to get into the Big House and play it,” says Pop Evil lead vocalist Leigh Kakaty, who grew up in Grand Rapids.

Let's murder our brand for WWE entrance music.


Yay. This debacle will go down as Dave Brandon's halo.

More Trouba. Local hockey expert Jim Lahey on Michigan's newest commit:

Trouba is a total package defenceman with elite ability. Looked like a man among boys in AAA, and that pretty much continues in the USHL. Has excellent size, will probably grow an inch or so and end up somewhere in the range of 6'2 215lbs as a pro.

Trouba makes a clean, smart first pass out of his zone and plays with perfect position on breakouts. Stays calm, never panics, and consistently loses the forechecker completely behind the net to create odd man rushes. This won't happen at the next level as often, but he shows the poise needed to create good breakouts at the next level.

Takes care of his own end, does not allow himself to get pushed around in front of or behind the net. Superb zone awareness.

And the United States of Hockey:

Jacob Trouba already has four assists on the young season. The recent University of Michigan commit is going to do very well against USHL competition thanks to his tremendous strength and toughness. The big test will come against the college teams where there’s going to be less time and space, forcing Trouba to make quicker decisions. The first major test for Trouba and his teammates comes right away as the U18s will take on Trouba’s future school Monday at Yost. The fellas from The Pipeline Show caught up with Trouba about his recent college commitment and the way he plays.

Another note on Trouba: TPS brought up that some have compared Trouba to former NTDP defenseman and current Anaheim Duck Cam Fowler. If you know me, you know I hate comparison scouting reports. While it may give people a basic picture of what a player might play like, they are often taken as gospel by those that read it and that’s pretty unfair to the prospect.

Trouba and Fowler are similar in these ways: They are American, played at the NTDP, are good offensive defensemen. That’s it. Trouba plays with an edge and brings an important physical element to his game. He has good offensive instincts and a powerful shot. Fowler is a heady defenseman that makes plays with his skills, defends with good positioning and is a pure puck mover. I’ve seen both play multiple times and I just don’t get the comparison. Jacob Trouba plays like Jacob Trouba. /dismount soap box.

Is it just me or does Michigan have a much better track record of reeling in elite, top-ten-pick defensemen than forwards? Michigan's last top ten pick at forward was Eric Nystrom, and even at the time people thought that was a huge reach. Trouba, JMFJ, and Mike Komisarek were all top ten picks.

Etc.: Hockey exhibition preview from somewhere in Canada mostly notable for naming the opponent the "UOIT Ridgebacks." We have declared Minesota a "Maize Out." RIP Maize Outs. Holdin' the Rope takes stock a third of the way through the season.



September 30th, 2011 at 4:42 PM ^

I have to be honest, Brian: you're completely wrong if you think the core customer isn't the players. The athletic department knows that people will continue to donate money and buy tickets and merchandise no matter how much bitching is done on the Internet. A majority of their focus is on determing how to convince 17 year olds with very fickle tastes to come to Ann Arbor.


September 30th, 2011 at 5:08 PM ^

Enh, they have to keep the fan base placated too.  There are other schools with 100k+ stadiums that don't sell out when the tomato cans come to town.  Michigan is the only school that can get a multidecade streak of "largest crowd watching a football game" going.  If they alienate us too far, they're only going to get 90k for the tomato cans.


September 30th, 2011 at 5:25 PM ^

Not at all.  However if going to watch us kick in Umass's head for 4 quarters involves:

Ads on the jumbotron, random pop music being blasted, weird anti homophobia PSA's, getting frisked to make sure I don't have a water bottle, Curly Fries dancing around on the sidelines, etc.  

Then I'll go dump the UMass ticket on stubhub, buy some beer, and settle down to watch the game in front of my TV.  It's more of a death by a thousand cuts type of thing.


September 30th, 2011 at 6:07 PM ^

While I see this hurting ticket sales, I don't think it will hurt as much as losing football games, which is caused by losing 17 year old recruits. Besides, in your scenario, you've already given your money to the athletic department for your ticket, why do they care if you dump it on stubhub?


September 30th, 2011 at 9:04 PM ^

It's hard to move the lesser games at face value though.  I've never scalped a ticket, but I hear people are lucky to get face for a tomato can.  If it reaches the point where I'm selling half my tickets for under face, I stop buying season tickets, I'll switch over to 2 or 4 game packages.  Or if I can't sell the tomato can tickets I just write them off and don't go.  


September 30th, 2011 at 11:24 PM ^

I don't think any of that would actually depress ticket sales.  Let's face it, we're a captive audience - we love Michigan football enough to pay several hundred dollars a year to go to the games.  Extraneous stuff isn't enough to move our decision meters.  Only an unsuccessful team is.


September 30th, 2011 at 9:48 PM ^

This is the truth.  How many of the "old guard" would've been supportive of someone with dreadlocks playing quarterback before Denard?  And now he's the main focus of national attention.  Life moves on, I agree the dog groomers suck (except for that inital "Wolverines!" which echoes Red Dawn), but this will help recruiting.

L David Goes Blue

September 30th, 2011 at 4:53 PM ^

If pop Evil plays at the big house; call me crazy, but I think everyone should boo them the entire song.  If its vs. Nebraska, I'll certainly try to get that going (because that's the game I'm tripping up to AA for this year, Nebraska Rivalry is going to be un real).  Go Blue.



September 30th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^

Pop Evil is awful.  There are absolutely right and wrong answers when it comes to "is this music good?"  Anyone who likes Nickelback is wrong.  Anyone who doesn't hate Pop Evil is similarly wrong.  


September 30th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^

I don't listen to Pop Evil or Nickelback either, but musical taste seems relative to me.  I'm not sure there is a right and wrong when it comes to music and the arts. A person enjoys what a person enjoys.

But your comment may be sarcastic.  I can't tell anymore.

Greg McMurtry

September 30th, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^

I think it all comes down to the "pop" part. A lot of people like pop songs because they are catchy. Pop=popular. The amount who like it is greater than the amount who prefer songs that aren't written strictly to make money selling to the largest audience. If you introduce pop music you alienate those who dislike it, but you're generally pleasing a larger audience.


September 30th, 2011 at 7:02 PM ^

    Why would you get depressed because someone else doesn't like the same music as you? Would you rather we were all clones and no one ever had a varying opinion?" I don't like rap but I don't complain when someone else does, that would be a monumental waste of energy, I respect them for thier musical tastes and move on.


September 30th, 2011 at 7:01 PM ^

    Why would you say such a closed minded thing. I am sure whatever your musical tastes are there are probably alot of people around who don't like it. What makes your opinion on music the only one that counts? That said, if the majority of people don't want to hear a song in the big house then it should not be played, unless the players like it and it gets them pumped up. By the way, most of the people I have asked like the song.


October 1st, 2011 at 4:25 PM ^

You forgot "entertain". That's their main job; or else no one cares about their art. Most artists are rocket scientists or philosophers. A lot are just plain dumb. I don't want them to try and "enlighten" me. Most of the stuff like this is usually self-important drivel, or depressing just to be depressing.


September 30th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^

When would they play? Before the game? At half? Both of those options imply the MMB's involvement. Would the band actually go along with this? Do they have any say? Are they subject to what the marketing arm of the AD tells them is happening or do they have creative control over those portions of gameday? 

I honestly don't know the answers. Any band folk know?


September 30th, 2011 at 4:55 PM ^

At gameday before they started the 10AM segment, Chris Fowler was talking to the crowd and asked if we liked "this song" and they played Pop Evil. The Crowd boo'd. He asked Should we play that or the band? Asked that, loud boos. Band? Loud cheers. The band played the victors for the intro. 'Nuff Said. Get your head out of your ass Marketing team.


September 30th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^

I'm no fan of "In the Big House" becuase I think it is lame and unoriginal, but at the same time, I don't think that just playing the standard marching band list is what a younger audience (myself included) wants for our game day atmosphere.  Playing recorded music enhances the atmosphere for a lot of people and gets people pumped up.

Personally, I would love to have the music of Eminem / The White Strpies / some other good Michigan artist used for our pre game.  My personal dream is that Jack White (an Ontario / SE Michigan native) would tell Penn State, Ohio State, et. al that they can't use "Seven Nation Army" anymore the way rock stars do with politicians when they use their songs without permission.  We could then keep that little dandy for ourselves. 


September 30th, 2011 at 5:12 PM ^

If Jack White's getting residuals when it's played, that would be a really dumb financial decision. 

And to be sure, every college football stadium using SNA is ripping off the crowds at Euro '08, where it became the unofficial fan anthem of the tournament. 

Blue boy johnson

September 30th, 2011 at 5:08 PM ^

Major props to Craig Roh for battling thru his adversity and being so frank about his struggles.

As far as Roh's play, I am loving the bull rush he is bringing on some plays, collapsing the pocket or in the case of the first drive, knocking the TE back and still being able to pancake Hillman!


September 30th, 2011 at 5:26 PM ^

My mindset for play calling has always been more on the aggressive side.  Granted, I'm sure I wouldn't hold a coaching job very long.

But to me, it makes sense to go for it on 4th and short almost every time when you're over the 50.  Obvious exclusions would be kicking a game tying or winning field goal.  And of course it's situational.  But I just believe that your success rate will be higher when playing more aggressive in certain situations than conventional knowledge suggests.

I have similar feelings against the use of the 'prevent defense.'  (I'll save that rant for another time)



September 30th, 2011 at 5:27 PM ^

Am I understanding this correctly?  There's a chance this "band" will be playing in the stadium?

If we have rock bands playing in the stadium during a game,  then there will be more " special events", as no doubt they'll be called, in the stadium.

Whoring out college football seems to be an unstoppable trend.   And yes, get off my lawn.



September 30th, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^

... whole issue is overblown.  I care about wins, about running a clean program, and about wins.  If this song gets us an incremental 4-star recruit, I'm all for it.  The only tradition that matters to me is being an excellent team that does things by the book.  I will endure many things, but losing and cheating are not two of them.  Most everything else are false symbols to me.   

Pop Evil, meh.


September 30th, 2011 at 6:12 PM ^

I just don't want to see the MMB take a backseat to piped-in music. I may be talking a leap of faith here, but I think that's what everyone's issue is with the Band-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named. Also, a recruit who come to Michigan because of the music is coming for the wrong reasons.


September 30th, 2011 at 9:51 PM ^

It will never happen. No piped in music can top the band coming out of the tunnel, the M-fanfare followed by The Victors, Varsity, and Let's Go Blue. Plus Temptation and everything else during the game.

That being said, I don't want to hear the MMB play Britney Spears, Lada Gaga, Eminem, whatever. 


September 30th, 2011 at 5:46 PM ^

This sentence displays a lack of knowledge about public relations, marketing, economics, taste, and common sense. The "core customers" are your customers, who hate In The Big House.

I'm so sick of the whining about In the Big House. Where is your proof that most people hate it? I sit in a section with plenty of blue hairs most of the time and no one has said any such thing. My 56 year old uncle and 54 year old aunt even like the song. It's played what, for probably a total of 30 seconds each game? Plus the players like it. It's an original song, it's better than Sweet Caroline, Don't Stop Believin', and whatever else we play that isn't original.


October 1st, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^

I read all the pro/anti piped music commentary, found some of it amusing, some even apropos.
But are you REALLY gonna sit ur ass down & write that anything a fly-by-night, now u see em/now u don't, band of poseurs who are at least 12 minutes into their 15... are BETTER than Sweet Caroline or Don't Stop Believin'?!?! for reals ....?

Everyone Murders

October 3rd, 2011 at 2:46 PM ^

Hey Dave, nothing personal, but


[To be clear, I really don't begrudge anyone their right to like a band.  It's just always funny to me to hear/see folks hate on other folks for their taste in music.  Like many others here I find Pop Evil to be Nickelback-lite, which is inherently redundant.  I wish they would not play it, and I wish Angelique hadn't given this band free publicity beyond the pub they're getting at games.  But that's just like, my opinion man.]