VCU and Turnovers - How to Beat the Rams
So we play VCU Saturday. I had heard somewhere recently that when VCU wins the turnover battle, they win and when they lose the turnover battle they tend to lose. I have nothing super insightful but I did gather up the data for you all to see and discuss so we can judge for ourselves. Behold:
VCU TO | Opp TO | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1-Nov | Virginia Union | W, 94-44 | 12 | 22 |
9-Nov | Fla. Gulf Coast | W, 80-57 | 14 | 25 |
13-Nov | Wichita St. | L, 53-51 | 15 | 13 |
17-Nov | at Winthrop | W, 90-54 | 13 | 21 |
22-Nov | vs. Memphis | W, 78-65 | 19 | 22 |
23-Nov | vs. #5 Duke | L, 67-58 | 10 | 8 |
24-Nov | vs. #13 Missouri | L, 68-65 | 8 | 14 |
28-Nov | Stetson | W, 92-56 | 8 | 22 |
1-Dec | Belmont | W, 75-65 | 15 | 24 |
7-Dec | at Old Dominion | W, 83-70 | 12 | 15 |
15-Dec | Alabama | W, 73-54 | 11 | 18 |
18-Dec | Western Ky. | W, 76-44 | 11 | 32 |
21-Dec | Longwood | W, 93-56 | 12 | 27 |
29-Dec | Fairleigh Dickinson | W, 96-67 | 15 | 34 |
2-Jan | at East Tenn. St. | W, 109-58 | 14 | 24 |
5-Jan | Lehigh | W, 59-55 | 12 | 22 |
9-Jan | Dayton | W, 74-62 | 12 | 26 |
12-Jan | at St. Bonaventure | W, 72-65 | 15 | 16 |
17-Jan | Saint Joseph's | W, 92-86 | 5 | 20 |
19-Jan | at Duquesne | W, 90-63 | 12 | 19 |
24-Jan | at Richmond | L, 86-74 | 13 | 13 |
26-Jan | La Salle | L, 69-61 | 12 | 14 |
30-Jan | at Rhode Island | W, 70-64 | 19 | 18 |
2-Feb | Fordham | W, 81-65 | 8 | 22 |
9-Feb | at Charlotte | W, 68-61 | 10 | 17 |
14-Feb | Massachusetts | W, 86-68 | 8 | 24 |
16-Feb | George Washington | W, 84-57 | 16 | 25 |
19-Feb | at St. Louis | L, 76-62 | 10 | 8 |
23-Feb | at Xavier | W, 75-71 | 11 | 22 |
2-Mar | Butler | W, 84-52 | 8 | 23 |
6-Mar | Richmond | W, 93-82 | 6 | 15 |
10-Mar | at Temple | L, 84-76 | 14 | 13 |
15-Mar | vs. #10 Saint Joseph's | W, 82-79 | 13 | 17 |
16-Mar | vs. UMass | W, 71-62 | 8 | 24 |
17-Mar | vs. St. Louis | L, 62-56 | 13 | 18 |
21-Mar | Akron | 11:03 left | 1 | 15 |
In wins VCU sports the following:
VCU TO: 11.3 per game
Opp TO: 21.7 per game
TO Ratio: 1.92
In losses VCU does this:
VCU TO: 12.1 per game
Opp TO: 14 per game
TO Ratio: 1.16
So win or lose, VCU turns the ball over at about the same rate, but if they can't get you to turn the ball over, they struggle. With Trey Burke as the helm, that's a good matchup for us. That may cause you to say 'duh' but I found it interesting that there was such a stark contrast between wins and losses
Michigan is currently #1 nationally in turnovers at just 9.2 per game (ncaa.com). Go blue
March 21st, 2013 at 11:29 PM ^
VCU looks very good, Shaka Smart is an amazing coach and I really enjoy VCUs style of play. We will need a better peformance out of Burke than tonight in order to defeat them. I think he is up to the task, but it should be a good battle. Go Blue.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM ^
with the way we were able to beat a good team tonight without trey making a field goal for the first 27ish minutes of the game, I feel more confident in our next game then I did before today. I think Trey got a little bit too caught up in his match up against Wolters and didn't run the offense as much as he should have. That being said, VCU is still a good team and shouldn't be taken lightly, but I still feel good about how we're playing as a team right now, especially McGary.
We will need Burke againt VCU far more than we did against SDSU. We have lots of guys who can create offense in the half court, but Burke's ability to take the ball up the floor against the VCU press will be extremely valuable.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:49 PM ^
keep it going than that Burke racks up points. Other than 2-12 shooting he had a decent game (7 assists and 2 TOs). We're not going to win if we have to rely on that stupid high ball screen crap they always run. But if GR3 and THJ get hot look out.
Trey's #1 job is to beat VCU's press.
That might lead to a lot of easy baskets for GR3 & THJ.
VCU plays pesky & small. I think a three-guard lineup of Spike & Trey could push the ball to THJ & GR3 and cause all sorts of problems for VCU (e.g. alley-oops). Or open threes for Stauskus in place of either THJ or GR3.
Game Statistics | |||||||||||||
Player | GP | MIN | POS | HT | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
Treveon Graham | 34 | 27.7 | G | 6'5" | 15.5 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | .450 | .728 | .364 |
Juvonte Reddic | 34 | 28.1 | F | 6'9" | 14.4 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | .561 | .711 | .167 |
Troy Daniels | 34 | 26.2 | G | 6'4" | 12.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | .417 | .720 | .406 |
Rob Brandenberg | 33 | 24.3 | G | 6'2" | 10.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | .403 | .684 | .348 |
Darius Theus | 33 | 26.9 | G | 6'3" | 7.1 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 | .461 | .667 | .341 |
Melvin Johnson | 33 | 17.0 | G | 6'3" | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | .418 | .767 | .291 |
Briante Weber | 34 | 21.1 | G | 6'3" | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | .418 | .785 | .225 |
Jarred Guest | 33 | 10.4 | F | 6'8" | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | .471 | .474 | .000 |
D.J. Haley | 29 | 8.0 | C | 7'0" | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | .571 | .400 | .000 |
Teddy Okereafor | 30 | 8.2 | G | 6'3" | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | .351 | .750 | .250 |
Justin Tuoyo | 24 | 7.0 | F | 6'9" | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | .212 | .625 | .188 |
David Hinton | 23 | 4.4 | F | 6'9" | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | .444 | .667 | .000 |
Totals | 33 | -- | -- | -- | 78 | 35 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 | .452 | .701 | .356 |
March 21st, 2013 at 11:30 PM ^
We play them Saturday, not tomorrow.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:37 PM ^
Thanks fixed it
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:02 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
Oh, wait. It was 55-17 a couple minutes into the second half.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:32 PM ^
Games not over yet.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:36 PM ^
Its like 82-40, let's move on
March 21st, 2013 at 11:34 PM ^
what to do is not turn the ball over which we hardly do.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM ^
March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM ^
Saw my Temple Owls handle VCU a couple weeks ago in Philly.
VCU will struggle with Michigan's athleticism and outside shooting. Book it.
1 | 2 | Total | ||
41 | 35 | 76 | ||
Temple | 36 | 48 | 84 |
March 21st, 2013 at 11:36 PM ^
Don't get the flu
March 21st, 2013 at 11:39 PM ^
In many ways, the diamond press plays right into Michigan's biggest strengths. No doubt it will be a big challenge, but I like the matchup.
My biggest fear is how the freshman can handle the pressue.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:38 PM ^
the last time we played a pressing team like this was Clemson who smart use to coach with. We only had 13 turnovers that game with cj lee and david merritt running the point so i feel comfortable with trey burke
We played Arkansas in 11'/12' and this year. They were super pesky both years. Last year we looked like a deer in headlights... this year they hung around and made a tough game of it. I worry that VCU is a lot stronger than Arkansas. Should be a doozy tomorrow!
March 21st, 2013 at 11:43 PM ^
I think the VCU/ Akron game says as much about Akron as it does about VCU. Akron looks pretty bad, apparently due to injuries and illness. They didn't have anyone to handle the ball against VCU. Ball handling is not an issue for us.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:49 PM ^
On numerous occasions, they actually had a SF trying to singlehandedly beat the press.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:04 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:32 AM ^
no one could stop him yet Michigan was a shot away from not getting upset. Got to give credit to Ohio for beating Michigan and making it to the Sweet 16.
Akron's starting point guard got the boot not to long ago. One of their other players injured his back in practice yesterday and couldn't play and they had 2 guys in the hospital overnight with the flu who didn't play. Akron had 4 players out. This game tells you almost nothing about Akron or VCU.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:53 PM ^
Akrons starting PG was arrested for selling dope as I recall. Tough to beat a press without a point guard.
March 21st, 2013 at 11:55 PM ^
JB needs to study the St. Louis film a lot.
Thanks for the info.
It al starts with defense. According to St. Louis Billikens coach, Jim Crews, 2-0 vs VCU this season, the way to beat VCU: "get stops". VCU can't press if they don't make shots.
Michigan has played well against this type of team in the recent past. M beat Arkansas this year, narrow loss on road to Ark. last season. M also beat Memphis pretty good last season, and destroyed Tennessee 2 years ago.
I think Beilein, with his young team, would much rather play a team like VCU, as opposed to a grind it out, milk every possession, half court oriented defense, Wisconsin like team
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:01 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:01 AM ^
It's not just about Burke. How comfortable is everyone else rushing/handling/passing the ball up the court under pressure of VCU's press and the 10 second clock? Burke is going to need some help. Very interested to see how prepared this team will be for this press.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130211/vcu-p…
What a great breakdown. Luke Winn might be the best basketball analyst out there. He can really explain how teams attack and why things happen. It's either him or Zach Lowe for Grantland, who writes about the NBA.
From that tape, it looks like the three keys are:
1. whomever has the ball has to keep their head up (not so concerned about Burke, but worried about everyone else) because that trap is coming from somewhere and if you don't have good vision with your head up, it'll be trouble.
2. Don't abandon the ballhandler in the backcourt if you think it's a man press, because they're still bringing the trap
3. Don't let them force you into the half-court corner on the offensive end, push the ball to the middle of the court.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:03 AM ^
To expand on Mr. Berenson's chart, if VCU's opponent commits 15 or more turnovers, VCU wins. If the opponent commits 14 or fewer turnovers, VCU loses. This is excepting their last game against St. Louis.
Michigan has only committed more than 14 turnovers twice - at MSU and at PSU. So if VCU mugs the shit out of Michigan and nothing is called, or they start chucking no-look arm-punt threes with a hand in their faces that subsequently hit nothing but net, then we should all worry. Otherwise, I feel okay about the chances. Anything can happen, but I like our guys.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:11 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:16 AM ^
I think Burke will be fine handling the press.
My two biggest concerns are:
1) if VCU forces the ball out of Burke's hands, how do THJ, LeVert, Stauskas and GRIII handle the pressure. Timmy is known to be careless with the ball at times and the other 3 are freshman.
2) How tired does Burke get if he has to constantly break the press by himself. Stamina could be a big issue late in the game.This is what teams like VCU thrive on. They dont necesarily force turnovers all game long, but they wear you down to where you are physically tired and thus more mistake prone in the second half. Saginaw High is a team that does this to perfection at the high school level.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 AM ^
who then get the ball to Burke cutting upcourt who then leads a 3 on 1 alley oop to THJ/GR3 or a wide open three to Stauskus.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:16 AM ^
But let's be honest; VCU's turnovers are largely created by their fierce press, and UM hasn't face much like it. Not sure saying "UM doesn't turn the ball over much in its halfcourt offense" is the same as "UM won't turn it over against a nonstop press."
WIth that; VCU's got a lot to worry about WHEN UM breaks its press.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 AM ^
Good point, but being a good ballhandler period should certainly mean you're more likely to perform better even against a nonstop press. Yes, VCU does it better than anyone, but it's not like Michigan hasn't broken a press this year.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:17 AM ^
Trey Burke is going to cut through them like a hot knife through butter. As always, the outcome of the game will come down to whether Michigan makes their outside shots. VCU gives up a lot of easy buckets, and if we are the offensive juggernaut that we think we are, we ought to be fully capable of taking advantage of that. Michigan matches up extremely well with VCU.
another key is how well UM finishes near the rim. If UM is breaking down the press, they're going to get a decent amount of shots near the rim. They need to convert those easy chances. Over the course of the year all most everyone but Burke seemed to have stretches where they have trouble finishing near the rim.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:26 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:36 AM ^
I'm hoping we don't have another Loyola Maramount on our hands, based on what I saw tonight. VCU got to bump with the body and Daniels couldn't miss from deep. That 1990 track meet was painful.
I like our chances given our ball handling capabilities. And with any luck, they used up some mojo tonight.
GRIII should have a huge game. The pace and spacing will suit him.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:41 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:49 AM ^
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:52 AM ^
HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL!
Trey should stay and return punts.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:52 AM ^
We all knew it would be VCU or us in the end.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:53 AM ^
no guarantee, but we are good (if not incredibly well-practiced) at beating the press, and there are not a whole lot of teams that can put a hurt on you in transition in very short order like we can. If Burke can get clear or a double-team, the ball is going to move quickly to the hoop or to the perimiter for a good look at a three.
than the VCU players.
March 22nd, 2013 at 12:59 AM ^
Winner of Michigan - VCU will end up in the Final Four.
JB's teams have handled the press pretty well in the past (the few times I've seen them face it). He likes to pass his way out of it, quickly up the court. McGary is a great outlet passer so I look for him to a play role.