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VCU and Turnovers - How to Beat the Rams

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:24 PM
#1
gwkrlghl
gwkrlghl's picture
Joined: 04/13/2012
MGoPoints: 71
VCU and Turnovers - How to Beat the Rams

So we play VCU Saturday. I had heard somewhere recently that when VCU wins the turnover battle, they win and when they lose the turnover battle they tend to lose. I have nothing super insightful but I did gather up the data for you all to see and discuss so we can judge for ourselves. Behold:

      VCU TO Opp TO
1-Nov Virginia Union W, 94-44 12 22
9-Nov Fla. Gulf Coast W, 80-57 14 25
13-Nov Wichita St. L, 53-51 15 13
17-Nov at Winthrop W, 90-54 13 21
22-Nov vs. Memphis W, 78-65 19 22
23-Nov vs. #5 Duke L, 67-58 10 8
24-Nov vs. #13 Missouri L, 68-65 8 14
28-Nov Stetson W, 92-56 8 22
1-Dec Belmont W, 75-65 15 24
7-Dec at Old Dominion W, 83-70 12 15
15-Dec Alabama W, 73-54 11 18
18-Dec Western Ky. W, 76-44 11 32
21-Dec Longwood W, 93-56 12 27
29-Dec Fairleigh Dickinson W, 96-67 15 34
2-Jan at East Tenn. St. W, 109-58 14 24
5-Jan Lehigh W, 59-55 12 22
9-Jan Dayton W, 74-62 12 26
12-Jan at St. Bonaventure W, 72-65 15 16
17-Jan Saint Joseph's W, 92-86 5 20
19-Jan at Duquesne W, 90-63 12 19
24-Jan at Richmond L, 86-74 13 13
26-Jan La Salle L, 69-61 12 14
30-Jan at Rhode Island W, 70-64 19 18
2-Feb Fordham W, 81-65 8 22
9-Feb at Charlotte W, 68-61 10 17
14-Feb Massachusetts W, 86-68 8 24
16-Feb George Washington W, 84-57 16 25
19-Feb at St. Louis L, 76-62 10 8
23-Feb at Xavier W, 75-71 11 22
2-Mar Butler W, 84-52 8 23
6-Mar Richmond W, 93-82 6 15
10-Mar at Temple L, 84-76 14 13
15-Mar vs. #10 Saint Joseph's W, 82-79 13 17
16-Mar vs. UMass W, 71-62 8 24
17-Mar vs. St. Louis L, 62-56 13 18
21-Mar Akron 11:03 left 1 15

In wins VCU sports the following:
VCU TO: 11.3 per game
Opp TO: 21.7 per game
TO Ratio: 1.92

In losses VCU does this:
VCU TO: 12.1 per game
Opp TO: 14 per game
TO Ratio: 1.16

So win or lose, VCU turns the ball over at about the same rate, but if they can't get you to turn the ball over, they struggle. With Trey Burke as the helm, that's a good matchup for us. That may cause you to say 'duh' but I found it interesting that there was such a stark contrast between wins and losses

Michigan is currently #1 nationally in turnovers at just 9.2 per game (ncaa.com). Go blue

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:29 PM
#2
Rather be on BA
Rather be on BA's picture
Joined: 08/29/2010
MGoPoints: 1515
VCU looks very good, Shaka

VCU looks very good, Shaka Smart is an amazing coach and I really enjoy VCUs style of play.  We will need a better peformance out of Burke than tonight in order to defeat them.  I think he is up to the task, but it should be a good battle.  Go Blue.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
Michigan Eaglet
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Joined: 02/20/2013
MGoPoints: 8572
To be honest,

with the way we were able to beat a good team tonight without trey making a field goal for the first 27ish minutes of the game, I feel more confident in our next game then I did before today. I think Trey got a little bit too caught up in his match up against Wolters and didn't run the offense as much as he should have. That being said, VCU is still a good team and shouldn't be taken lightly, but I still feel good about how we're playing as a team right now, especially McGary.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 4:08 PM
(Reply to #7) #4
Blueph
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Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 12756
We will need Burke againt VCU

We will need Burke againt VCU far more than we did against SDSU.  We have lots of guys who can create offense in the half court, but Burke's ability to take the ball up the floor against the VCU press will be extremely valuable.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:49 PM
(Reply to #2) #5
bo_lives
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Joined: 04/10/2011
MGoPoints: 4290
I think it's far more important that GR3 and THJ

keep it going than that Burke racks up points. Other than 2-12 shooting he had a decent game (7 assists and 2 TOs). We're not going to win if we have to rely on that stupid high ball screen crap they always run. But if GR3 and THJ get hot look out.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:13 AM
(Reply to #15) #6
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: -74930
I agree

Trey's #1 job is to beat VCU's press.

That might lead to a lot  of easy baskets for GR3 & THJ.

VCU plays pesky & small.  I think a three-guard lineup of Spike & Trey could push the ball to THJ & GR3 and cause all sorts of problems for VCU (e.g. alley-oops). Or open threes for Stauskus in place of either THJ or GR3.

 

 

 

Game Statistics
Player GP MIN POS HT PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Treveon Graham 34 27.7 G 6'5" 15.5 6.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 .450 .728 .364
Juvonte Reddic 34 28.1 F 6'9" 14.4 8.3 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.6 .561 .711 .167
Troy Daniels 34 26.2 G 6'4" 12.1 3.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.9 .417 .720 .406
Rob Brandenberg 33 24.3 G 6'2" 10.4 2.7 1.4 1.3 0.2 1.3 .403 .684 .348
Darius Theus 33 26.9 G 6'3" 7.1 1.6 4.9 2.5 0.3 1.9 .461 .667 .341
Melvin Johnson 33 17.0 G 6'3" 7.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 .418 .767 .291
Briante Weber 34 21.1 G 6'3" 5.4 2.9 2.8 2.8 0.3 1.2 .418 .785 .225
Jarred Guest 33 10.4 F 6'8" 2.2 2.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 .471 .474 .000
D.J. Haley 29 8.0 C 7'0" 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 .571 .400 .000
Teddy Okereafor 30 8.2 G 6'3" 1.3 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.8 .351 .750 .250
Justin Tuoyo 24 7.0 F 6'9" 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 .212 .625 .188
David Hinton 23 4.4 F 6'9" 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 .444 .667 .000
Totals 33 -- -- -- 78 35 15 12 3 12 .452 .701 .356

 

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:30 PM
#7
A Lot of Milk
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Joined: 02/17/2013
MGoPoints: 9823
We play them Saturday, not

We play them Saturday, not tomorrow.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:37 PM
(Reply to #3) #8
gwkrlghl
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Joined: 04/13/2012
MGoPoints: 71
Thanks fixed it

Thanks fixed it

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:02 AM
(Reply to #3) #9
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
Well, it's tomorrow now.

(Who thought it was a good idea to start Syracuse-Montana at 11 then have what felt like a 45 minute halftime?)

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:47 PM
(Reply to #21) #10
Nothsa
Nothsa's picture
Joined: 10/07/2008
MGoPoints: 1059
Yeah, but look at what the Griz were able to do after the half!

Oh, wait. It was 55-17 a couple minutes into the second half.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:32 PM
#11
aSconnieWolverine
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Joined: 01/27/2013
MGoPoints: 56
Games not over yet.

Games not over yet.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:36 PM
(Reply to #4) #12
JimBobTressel
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Joined: 11/28/2010
MGoPoints: 4235
Its like 82-40, let's move on

Its like 82-40, let's move on

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:34 PM
#13
The Truth Hurts
Joined: 03/30/2011
MGoPoints: 647
what to do is not turn the

what to do is not turn the ball over which we hardly do.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM
#14
jmscher
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1269
Missouri

VCUs loss to Missouri bodes well. They are a very guard oriented team that is too say the least defensively challenged. Basically a worse version of us.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:35 PM
#15
clarkiefromcanada
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Joined: 11/21/2008
MGoPoints: 37504
hmmmmmm...

Saw my Temple Owls handle VCU a couple weeks ago in Philly.

VCU will struggle with Michigan's athleticism and outside shooting. Book it.

 

 

Liacouras Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Sunday, March 10, 12:00 PM (ET)
VCU
Rams
(24-7)
 
Temple
Owls
(23-8)
 
76 - 84
Final
 
  1 2   Total
VCU 41 35   76
Temple 36 48   84

 

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:36 PM
#16
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
Don't get the flu

Don't get the flu

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:39 PM
#17
TheGhostofYost
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Joined: 04/20/2011
MGoPoints: 2971
In many ways, the diamond

In many ways, the diamond press plays right into Michigan's biggest strengths.  No doubt it will be a big challenge, but I like the matchup.

My biggest fear is how the freshman can handle the pressue.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:38 PM
#18
The Truth Hurts
Joined: 03/30/2011
MGoPoints: 647
the last time we played a

the last time we played a pressing team like this was Clemson who smart use to coach with.  We only had 13 turnovers that game with cj lee and david merritt running the point so i feel comfortable with trey burke

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March 22nd, 2013 at 9:59 AM
(Reply to #13) #19
Cville-Blue
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Joined: 04/12/2010
MGoPoints: 233
Don't forget Arkansas

We played Arkansas in 11'/12' and this year. They were super pesky both years. Last year we looked like a deer in headlights... this year they hung around and made a tough game of it. I worry that VCU is a lot stronger than Arkansas. Should be a doozy tomorrow!

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:43 PM
#20
Lazer with a Z
Lazer with a Z's picture
Joined: 07/13/2011
MGoPoints: 1844
Akron

I think the VCU/ Akron game says as much about Akron as it does about VCU. Akron looks pretty bad, apparently due to injuries and illness. They didn't have anyone to handle the ball against VCU. Ball handling is not an issue for us. 

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:49 PM
(Reply to #14) #21
TheGhostofYost
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Joined: 04/20/2011
MGoPoints: 2971
On numerous occasions, they

On numerous occasions, they actually had a SF trying to singlehandedly beat the press.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:04 AM
(Reply to #14) #22
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
Where was this Ohio MAC double digit seed

LAST year?

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:32 AM
(Reply to #23) #23
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 16387
DJ Cooper happened

no one could stop him yet Michigan was a shot away from not getting upset.  Got to give credit to Ohio for beating Michigan and making it to the Sweet 16.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:00 AM
(Reply to #14) #24
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15753
Akron

Akron's starting point guard got the boot not to long ago.  One of their other players injured his back in practice yesterday and couldn't play and they had 2 guys in the hospital overnight with the flu who didn't play.  Akron had 4 players out.  This game tells you almost nothing about Akron or VCU.

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:53 PM
#25
UMichClass2017
UMichClass2017's picture
Joined: 02/12/2010
MGoPoints: 316
Akrons starting PG was

Akrons starting PG was arrested for selling dope as I recall. Tough to beat a press without a point guard.  

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March 21st, 2013 at 11:55 PM
#26
randyfloyd
randyfloyd's picture
Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 3562
It looks like

JB needs to study the St. Louis film a lot.

Thanks for the info.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 7:19 AM
(Reply to #18) #27
Blue boy johnson
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 6350
It al starts with defense.

It al starts with defense. According to St. Louis Billikens coach, Jim Crews, 2-0 vs VCU this season, the way to beat VCU: "get stops". VCU can't press if they don't make shots.

Michigan has played well against this type of team in the recent past. M beat Arkansas this year, narrow loss on road to Ark. last season. M also beat Memphis pretty good last season, and destroyed Tennessee 2 years ago.

I think Beilein, with his young team, would much rather play a team like VCU, as opposed to a grind it out, milk every possession, half court oriented defense, Wisconsin like team

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:01 AM
#28
jml969
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Joined: 12/21/2008
MGoPoints: 1705
I say you hold them

To one bad shot and get the rebounds

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:01 AM
#29
snoopblue
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Joined: 11/11/2009
MGoPoints: 2126
It's not just about Burke.

It's not just about Burke. How comfortable is everyone else rushing/handling/passing the ball up the court under pressure of VCU's press and the 10 second clock? Burke is going to need some help. Very interested to see how prepared this team will be for this press.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130211/vcu-pr...

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March 22nd, 2013 at 9:27 AM
(Reply to #20) #30
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
What a great breakdown. Luke

What a great breakdown. Luke Winn might be the best basketball analyst out there. He can really explain how teams attack and why things happen. It's either him or Zach Lowe for Grantland, who writes about the NBA.

From that tape, it looks like the three keys are: 

1. whomever has the ball has to keep their head up (not so concerned about Burke, but worried about everyone else) because that trap is coming from somewhere and if you don't have good vision with your head up, it'll be trouble.

2. Don't abandon the ballhandler in the backcourt if you think it's a man press, because they're still bringing the trap

3. Don't let them force you into the half-court corner on the offensive end, push the ball to the middle of the court.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:03 AM
#31
mdoc
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Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 5858
so

To expand on Mr. Berenson's chart, if VCU's opponent commits 15 or more turnovers, VCU wins. If the opponent commits 14 or fewer turnovers, VCU loses. This is excepting their last game against St. Louis. 

Michigan has only committed more than 14 turnovers twice - at MSU and at PSU. So if VCU mugs the shit out of Michigan and nothing is called, or they start chucking no-look arm-punt threes with a hand in their faces that subsequently hit nothing but net, then we should all worry. Otherwise, I feel okay about the chances. Anything can happen, but I like our guys.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:11 AM
#32
TaiStreetsMyHero
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Joined: 08/08/2012
MGoPoints: 27807
Watching VCU's defense...

They didn't seem to do anything special on D. Akron was just lost with all their scrubs on the court. If Burke plays his average game we should be in good shape

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:16 AM
#33
Dantana
Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 137
I think Burke will be fine

I think Burke will be fine handling the press.

My two biggest concerns are:

1) if VCU forces the ball out of Burke's hands, how do THJ, LeVert, Stauskas and GRIII handle the pressure. Timmy is known to be careless with the ball at times and the other 3 are freshman.

2) How tired does Burke get if he has to constantly break the press by himself. Stamina could be a big issue late in the game.This is what teams like VCU thrive on. They dont necesarily force turnovers all game long, but they wear you down to where you are physically tired and thus more mistake prone in the second half. Saginaw High is a team that does this to perfection at the high school level.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 AM
(Reply to #25) #34
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: -74930
I think we should try Spike & McGary inbounding the ball

who then get the ball to Burke cutting upcourt who then leads a 3 on 1 alley oop to THJ/GR3 or a wide open three to Stauskus.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:16 AM
#35
ThWard
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 4327
UM doesn't turn the ball over a ton

But let's be honest; VCU's turnovers are largely created by their fierce press, and UM hasn't face much like it.  Not sure saying "UM doesn't turn the ball over much in its halfcourt offense" is the same as "UM won't turn it over against a nonstop press."

WIth that; VCU's got a lot to worry about WHEN UM breaks its press.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 AM
(Reply to #26) #36
Gulogulo37
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Joined: 03/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11548
True

Good point, but being a good ballhandler period should certainly mean you're more likely to perform better even against a nonstop press. Yes, VCU does it better than anyone, but it's not like Michigan hasn't broken a press this year.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:14 AM
(Reply to #26) #37
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
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UM hasn't faced much like it because

the B1G took note of Michigan's first two B1G games and concluded, "Don't do that" (let Mich play in space)

 

Jan 3
  • @ NW
  • W 94-66
Jan 6
  • vs IOWA
  • W 95-67

 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:17 AM
#38
TheLastHarbaugh
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Trey Burke is going to cut

Trey Burke is going to cut through them like a hot knife through butter. As always, the outcome of the game will come down to whether Michigan makes their outside shots. VCU gives up a lot of easy buckets, and if we are the offensive juggernaut that we think we are, we ought to be fully capable of taking advantage of that. Michigan matches up extremely well with VCU.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:03 AM
(Reply to #27) #39
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15753
I'd also say

another key is how well UM finishes near the rim.  If UM is breaking down the press, they're going to get a decent amount of shots near the rim.  They need to convert those easy chances.  Over the course of the year all most everyone but Burke seemed to have stretches where they have trouble finishing near the rim.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:26 AM
#40
Wolverine Devotee
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Joined: 06/29/2009
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I imagine Bacari will mention

I imagine Bacari will mention something about going out and having a Rams Horn dinner in the pregame locker room speech.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 7:26 AM
(Reply to #28) #41
HarBooYa
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Joined: 06/22/2011
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So true!

Bacari's metaphorical magic land.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:36 AM
#42
mi93
Joined: 11/15/2008
MGoPoints: 6371
For old guys like me

I'm hoping we don't have another Loyola Maramount on our hands, based on what I saw tonight.  VCU got to bump with the body and Daniels couldn't miss from deep.  That 1990 track meet was painful.

I like our chances given our ball handling capabilities.  And with any luck, they used up some mojo tonight.

GRIII should have a huge game.  The pace and spacing will suit him.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:06 AM
(Reply to #30) #43
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: -74930
I'm thinking we will see a Loyola Marymount like game from 1990

versus UNLV, which the superior athletes of UNLV won 131-101.

http://lmureview.com/loyola-marymount-basketball/schedule/1989-1990

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:49 AM
(Reply to #31) #44
Indonacious
Joined: 01/03/2012
MGoPoints: 7451
They did clobber butler.

They did clobber butler.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:52 AM
#45
Gulogulo37
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Joined: 03/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11548
HOLD

HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL!

Trey should stay and return punts.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:52 AM
#46
BlueDragon
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Joined: 11/14/2010
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We all knew it would be VCU

We all knew it would be VCU or us in the end.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:53 AM
#47
SF Wolverine
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Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 9101
Bad Matchup for VCU

no guarantee, but we are good (if not incredibly well-practiced) at beating the press, and there are not a whole lot of teams that can put a hurt on you in transition in very short order like we can.    If Burke can get clear or a double-team, the ball is going to move quickly to the hoop or to the perimiter for a good look at a three.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:07 AM
(Reply to #36) #48
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
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Not only Burke, but I'm betting THJ & GR3 are faster

than the VCU players.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:59 AM
#49
TheLastHarbaugh
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Winner of Michigan - VCU will

Winner of Michigan - VCU will end up in the Final Four.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:04 AM
#50
AlwaysBlue
Joined: 11/23/2008
MGoPoints: 7854
JB's teams have handled the

JB's teams have handled the press pretty well in the past (the few times I've seen them face it).  He likes to pass his way out of it, quickly up the court.  McGary is a great outlet passer so I look for him to a play role. 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:44 AM
#51
somewittyname
Joined: 05/15/2009
MGoPoints: -2510
15 Turnovers

Interesting that they've lost every game where they forced fewer than 15 turnovers and won every game, save one, where they score more. Looks like we have a magic number.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 10:06 AM
(Reply to #46) #52
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 5687
Interesting that they've . .

Interesting that they've . . . won every game, save one, where they score more.

 

It's not that unusual to win games where you score more, but dear god, how did they lose one?

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March 22nd, 2013 at 2:09 AM
#53
bobdgil
Joined: 03/05/2012
MGoPoints: 76
St. Joseph's

In which parallel dimension was St. Joseph's ranked #10 on March 15?

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March 22nd, 2013 at 2:26 AM
#54
Gameboy
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Joined: 11/28/2010
MGoPoints: 5096
I just don't get all the

I just don't get all the confidence against VCU... First, we haven't faced too many full court press this year. And when we did (like MSU early), we didn't do that hot. You do not break full court press with a single player. Trey is going to have to give it up and THJ and Stauskas is going to have to be careful with the ball. From what I have seen this year, that could get dicey. I still think we will win, but this is not going to be easy... AT ALL.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 9:30 AM
(Reply to #48) #55
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
I agree. Even Penn State gave

I agree. Even Penn State gave us fits with their press both games. And the absolute keys are the secondary ball handlers, particularly Stauskas who can play too flashy with the ball.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:10 PM
(Reply to #48) #56
gwkrlghl
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Joined: 04/13/2012
MGoPoints: 71
I would mostly agree

It makes me nervous thinking about Spike, THJ, or Caris bringing the ball up against their press but my main thought is that statistically we're one of VCU's matchup nightmares: an elite PG and lots of good 3-point shooters and dunkers

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:35 PM
(Reply to #69) #57
oriental andrew
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19793
honestly

the only one of the bunch you mentioned I'm really worried about is LeVert.  Spike has pretty decent handles, although he needs to be careful he doesn't get too aggressive and stuck or out of control.  THJ's handles are much improved from last year.  LeVert seems to think his ball handling is better than it is, and I was pretty disappointed in his performance last night.  He is just a freshman and maybe he was over-excited about being in his first tourney game, so perhaps he'll calm down tomorrow. 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 5:20 AM
#58
graybeaver
Joined: 03/30/2012
MGoPoints: -700
On paper this game should be

On paper this game should be a easy win for M. Who has more NBA prospects? Michigan has at least five and a POY PG to handle the press.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 6:32 AM
(Reply to #51) #59
SalvatoreQuattro
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Joined: 11/30/2010
MGoPoints: 39920
WTF is this crap?

Is that you spam?

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:42 PM
(Reply to #52) #60
Anonymosity
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2480
Politics, religion,

Politics, religion, pornography, and/or excessive disrespect towards college athletes can [rightfully] earn one the banhammer...

But spam is A-OK

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March 22nd, 2013 at 6:55 AM
#61
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 35030
I'm more worried about us

I'm more worried about us making our shots. We haven't had a game with everyone "on" since Jan. UM shooting effectively will decide the game.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 8:01 AM
#62
Swayze Howell Sheen
Swayze Howell Sheen's picture
Joined: 10/05/2008
MGoPoints: 14684
thanks

thanks for the data.

Here is a plot of point differential (y-axis) vs. turnover margin (x-axis).

The x-axis shows the margin of turnovers (VCU's minus opponents); the y-axis shows point difference (VCU's minus opponents).

Thus, VCU's losses are anything below the zero line on the y-axis, wins above, and games where VCU wins the turnover battle are towards the right.

As you can see, if you keep the turnover differential down, you have a much better chance of winning; specifically, in 11 games with a TO margin of +4 or less, VCU was 5-6; in 24 games with a TO margin of +5 or more, VCU was 22-2.

Also plotted is the best fit line.


 

 

 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 8:02 AM
#63
Zok
Joined: 03/24/2009
MGoPoints: 582
People don't know squat about a press

You don't beat a press (at least a good one) with just your PG. Too many people here saying Burke will handle the press.

Burke is going to be passing the ball before he gets past the FT (on OUR end). Its going to be up to our 2 and 3 and probably McGary to pass their way out of it.

THAT is what should make us nervous. 

I'm sure Burke will come off a few curls and will be able to sneak up court but for the most part its going to take 2 or 3 passes to get it up court for a good look.

It's going to be on Spike, Stauskas, and THjr to avoid the TOs. Burke will be fine but we won't be brining it up much. Thank God GR3 got warm...he's going to have a lot of looks once we break the press. We need to fnish with DUNKS or 3s.

 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 8:25 AM
(Reply to #57) #64
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
You could mix it up and

You could mix it up and inbound to the 2 or 3 and then use Burke on the wing, so he's the guy that brings it across halfcourt (or makes the pass that crosses halfcourt). 

Your point is correct - it's a team effort to beat the press.  We did decently against it when we played Arkansas in January. 

 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 9:32 AM
(Reply to #58) #65
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
Given McGary's size and

Given McGary's size and passing ability, he could be really effective flashing to the middle of the diamond and then making the diagonal pass to the cutter on the opposite side. You get worried about him getting over-excited, but his passing from other parts of the court, particularly the outlets, has been stellar.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 10:12 AM
#66
MGoManBall
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Joined: 10/27/2012
MGoPoints: 12251
I loved watching how active

I loved watching how active McGary was the entire game. With him down low and a better performance from Burke, Michigan will be in the sweet 16.

 

MCGARY SMASH

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March 22nd, 2013 at 10:23 AM
#67
JClay
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Joined: 09/14/2010
MGoPoints: 13751
Anyone know the kenpom

Anyone know the kenpom prediction for the game? Tried going to his site and I think I have to pay $20 to get it...

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:37 PM
(Reply to #65) #68
oriental andrew
oriental andrew's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19793
patience grasshopper

Brian and Dylan will both include it in their upcoming game previews.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 10:40 AM
#69
trueblue262
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 8071
I know one way to beat VCU

Make sure 1/2 your team doesn't have the flu at tip off

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March 22nd, 2013 at 11:20 AM
#70
El Jeffe
El Jeffe's picture
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 19400
One thing I noticed from the

One thing I noticed from the Akron game is how effective some shot fakes would be. VCU plays with surprising discipline but are prone to freaking out from time to time. Would be nice to pick up a couple of cheap fouls on them early, not to get them in foul trouble (going 12 deep after all) but to get some shooting fouls for Burke and Stauskas especially.

I desperately want Nik to learn to give a hard shot fake from the left corner and then just plow into whoever is leaping at him so he can get 3 free throws. Too often I see him sidestep someone who is closing out too aggressively.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 11:49 AM
#71
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
When Albrecht's in, and I

When Albrecht's in, and I expect he'll see significant minutes to get another ball handler on the court, he has to remember not to overdribble, which is his tendency. Raftery even noted it during the game. It seems, from looking at the tape, that VCU really attacks any small guards they see dominanting the ball. 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:11 PM
#72
Zok
Joined: 03/24/2009
MGoPoints: 582
The more I think about it the uglier its going to be

I don't see how UM keeps it under 15 TOs. Really.

I think the difference is UM will make them pay with just enough 3s to get the W (I hope).

I just don't see how Spike, THjr, and Stauskas won't have 12 TOs between them. Seriously. Not feeling good about that. Doesn't help that Spike and Burke are short and will have VERY long players on them.

McGary and the bigs are going to be huge. They are going to post up mid court as the safety value while Spike and Burke pass and cut to get the ball back. Frankly, I want Stauskas and THjr to touch the ball in the back court as little as possible.

I know when we break we will make them pay with the 3 ball though. There will be lots of open looks. Hopefully McGary and Horford crash the boards hard.

 

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March 22nd, 2013 at 3:39 PM
(Reply to #70) #73
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
I think you may be selling

I think you may be selling our ballhandling abilities a little short.  Remember, we have the lowest turnover average in the country.  Burke obviously has been spectacular but it's not just his doing.  Albrecht has only 10 turnovers all season (against 25 assists) and LeVert has just seven (vs. 22 assists). Stauskas, Robinson and Hardaway all have positive assist/turnover ratios on the year.  If we really had a glaring weakness handling the ball, we'd have seen more teams try to press and trap us.  Hardaway is the one guy (65 turnovers in 33 games) that is a little loose with the ball, but otherwise our perimeter guys have taken good care of it.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 12:48 PM
#74
Jimmyisgod
Joined: 01/24/2012
MGoPoints: 4017
fatigue

Their press is good, but it's a means to an end.  The fact that they have 11 guys that get at least 7 minutes a game tells you what their strategy aims to do.  They want to take a team's legs.  The key to this game will be Beilein using a deep rotation and giving Hardaway, Burke, GRIII, and Stauskus longer blows than usual, especially in the 1st half.  Spike needs to be able to bring the ball up against this press or Burke won't have much left at the end of the game.

Also, take the layups and dunks when you break the press, but don't get caught up in taking every open 3, they may fall early, but with tired legs eventually they won't fall as often and VCU lives off the fast break off from long rebounds.  I want to see us run, but run smart, cannot get into a helter skelter game with these guys.  The teams that beat them generally were able to slow it down some.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:11 PM
#75
goblue81
goblue81's picture
Joined: 10/02/2010
MGoPoints: 1560
As a Butler Alum, I watched a

As a Butler Alum, I watched a lot of A10 games this year (particularly VCU, SLU, & Butler).  VCU's havoc D is more an important part of their Offense.  

They score well off the turnovers they generate in the press.  They have good on the ball defenders, and while breaking down the full court press give opponents plenty of break opportunities, they are actually very good at rotating back and playing D in the half court. 

A primariy weakness is they can struggle in their halfcourt offense.  If a team doesn't turn the ball over and limits their fastbreaks, its almost a guaranteed loss for VCU if the opponent has anything resembling an efficient offense.  SLU pretty much dominated VCU with solid D and efficient O.

I'll absolutely shocked if Burke and Co struggle with the pressure.  The real challenge will be consistent O since lots of D rebounds gives VCU break opportunities.  Also, the UM bigs will handle the ball more than usual, and do not underestimate VCU's ability to double down in the post to generate steals.  They have extremely quick hands on D.

We'll know after the first 5 minutes whether or not tomorrow is a drinking early and often day....

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March 22nd, 2013 at 1:40 PM
#76
Jimmyisgod
Joined: 01/24/2012
MGoPoints: 4017
Akron beat Penn State

I know Akron was short handed last night, but they blew out Penn State by 25, also beat Ohio by 14 and 7.  Akron is a good basketball team.  Just not sure if they were anywhere near close to full strength, regardless, VCU absolutely dismantled them like a #1 seed would do.

Like our chances, but this is going to be a tough tough game.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 3:29 PM
(Reply to #77) #77
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
Yesterday, Akron's starting

Yesterday, Akron's starting PG was suspended and three other guys were either out or weakened by injury/illness.

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March 22nd, 2013 at 9:15 PM
#78
GotBlueOnMyMind
Joined: 03/01/2012
MGoPoints: 1623
Betting Line: Alley Oops

Over/Under 4 alley oops in this game. Given the way they play, it seems like there will be plenty of opportunities alley oops. Not saying it will be easy to get through, but when we do, there will be opportunities. (I almost put the over/under at 5, but that seemed excessive)

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