Updated S&P: Michigan 67% to win @ OSU, 98% to win @ MSU
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-michigan-advanced-statistic….
Also #1 in rush and pass defense, of course. ALL THE DEFENSE.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
Someone (Ace maybe) pointed out before the Illinois game that teams with our S&P+ projection against MSU have an all-time record of 1500-6.
And then our probability increased.
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October 24th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^
So, wait, the first game in our series was played in 510 AD???
October 24th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^
Of course, why else would they be called Spartans?
October 24th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
or clothing...
Hold still while I create this statue
October 24th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^
That's how linemen hoisted running backs when then didn't want their danglies to touch.
October 24th, 2016 at 8:33 PM ^
Only guys with a middle name Lollipop use the word danglies.
October 25th, 2016 at 4:54 AM ^
sumpthin sumpthin pad level...
October 24th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^
Projected margin of 35.5 against State. This would please me.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^
I hope Northwestern enjoys their 2 week reign as the highest scoring visitor in Spartan Stadium history.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^
be a B+ in my book, and very nice showing at a rival's field. I'm still hoping for an A+ after the past few years, and especially last year.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^
I know a win is a win, but I would certainly enjoy the thorough sort of stomping that sends a message of dominance. And here's the thing - Harbaugh can do that without it being personal or petty, because he's always trying to win with cruelty against everyone, so this would simply be like stacking MSU's corpse on the pile and saying "You're just like them now. Get used to it."
October 24th, 2016 at 8:09 PM ^
I love this thought and I also love that it's true.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
I'd be more then pleased, especially since to win by 35.5 we would need to find a way to score half a point, which I do not believe has ever been done before. I wouldn't put it past Harbaugh to find a way though.
October 24th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^
Scoring points, Section 12:
If the kicking team's extra point is good and a member of the kicking team catches the ball in the endzone, then runs back into the field of play and back into the endzone the team will be awarded an additional half point.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
...but worse.
Unlike other people on this blog that would prefer to beat an undefeated Michigan State team, I am of the mindset that we kick them when they are down, but kick them so hard that they can't get back up.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^
Win with character.
Win with cruelty.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:27 PM ^
I don't think anybody will complain about beating them down at anytime, most were saying it would benefit us more if they were good and we ended up blowing them out.
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October 25th, 2016 at 12:32 AM ^
Rutgers may have had 200 recruits there, but how many of those did we want? Isaiah Wilson, and he was there to see us, not them. There are going to be a lot of state of Michigan recruits at the game and Harbaugh is going to make sure we give the Spartans a stomping that no one in attendance, and no one watching on tv, will ever forget. This shit ends now.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
58% Chance at finishing 12-0?
37% Chance of finnishing 11-1?
In other words: it's more likely that we go undefeated than we lose a game.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^
. . . . we have a 95% chance of finising either unbeaten or with 1 loss.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
Yes, and a 37% chance of ending up in Finland...
October 24th, 2016 at 1:34 PM ^
Please let this be the blowout it looks to be on paper. I know that MSU will play as though their lives depend on the outcome, but Harbaugh knows that and will exploit that.
I want the "W" but also want it to be done with requisite cruelty and character.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
They blitz, we screen, we score, repeat.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
Then we can talk about beating MSU again!
October 25th, 2016 at 12:37 AM ^
Maybe his meltdown last Saturday is an indication that they're crumbling and won't even be able to get up for the game. He's a captain. They look too frustrated to pull it together.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:35 PM ^
Way too high. Anybody else here that would take a one point win over both right now?
October 24th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^
Why win by 1 when you can win by 30?
October 24th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^
Of course. Who wouldn't?
October 24th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
I would rather let the game play out than "take" a one-point win guarantee over Michigan state right now. Why? Because I just don't think there is any way their sorry group can handle Michigan in all three phases this year. I expect the crowd to turn on them at some point late in the game (or simply be overtaken by M fans).
My biggest worry is the potential that Sparty sends some cheap shots at our most critical players (READ: Jabrill Peppers). Hoping we can build enough of a lead to get our most important players off the field as early as possible.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^
My feelings exactly. I am not worried about the outcome - I can't wait for the ass-whooping. However, I really want this to be an injury free game where the starters have the luxury of enjoying the second half (or better yet, the last 3 quarters) from the comfort of the bench.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:27 PM ^
Yep. Watching Bullough (SP?) this weekend and his complete lack of discipline scared me. It'll only be worse, much worse in this game. Spartan fans claim Dantonio has class, well, if he does he won't let that happen. He'd use that as an example of how not to play. I don't know if I believe that.
October 24th, 2016 at 10:06 PM ^
Dantonio publicly admits to being an Ohio St fan. Ohio St fans have no class.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^
I hate these predictions. How accurate are these predictions really? Is there a stat on this?
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^
Pretty sure the prediction to win last year with 9 seconds left on the clock was about the same as the above.
Sharty looks the part this year but they will be up for this one.
I can't see them pulling this one off tho.
Michigan 38
msu 17
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
Of course it's "their Superbowl" etc. but emotion only lasts until you get hit in the mouth.
Sometimes I think the board is impacted so much by the last eight years that they lose the perspective that Harbaugh/Fisch/Drevno/Mattison/Brown etc. are ridiculously elite. This is a team with Senior leadership and elite coaches. Anxiety can stand down.
I don't see a path for Sparty to score 17.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^
I could see 13. One decent FG drive. One short field FG drive. One brilliant trick play (they always have one). Maybe even a close game a halftime, with State playing for their lives.
But a close game at the end would gen inconceivable. And I highly doubt they get 17 with their offense right now.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
It's not like that helped us when they were good and UM was bad.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
I will frankly be shocked if S scores 17 against us unless Speight has a Demetrious Brown-type game, and that seems highly unlikely.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^
WIN THE GAME.
WIN ALL OF THEM.
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:42 PM ^
I am legitimately worried about our players' safety against MSU, especially if we get up by a few scores.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
I'd rather win by 10 with the second string playing the entire second half than win by 50 but a few starters get seriously hurt.
The frustration and embarrassment will be high in the second half, I'm guessing.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:54 PM ^
after last year's debacle, Dantonio's crowing about "Where are all the Wolverines" etc. does anyone think the Michigan players are going to let up?
I'd be more worried as a Sparty.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^
We need an enforcer. RIP Bob Probert
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^
Last win in the shoe: 2000. I was 16. I'm married,have a kid, and over 30. I'm beyond excited, but still too scared to be confident. Please let this be the year, followed by many more.
October 24th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
This was the last M game I attended. I was 19. I now have 4 children, married and I have gray hair.
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
You are ready too!
October 24th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^
I was just dabbling over on Massey Ratings earlier and building the probability matrix for the next five games and it is encouraging if the predictions hold.
It currently runs as follows:
5 wins - 43.9786%
4 wins - 47.5139%
3 wins - 7.9466%
2 wins - 0.5508%
1 win - 0.0099%
Utter collapse - 0.0001%
I'll take an estimated 91.4925% chance of being at least 11-1 in the regular season.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:09 PM ^
Why is Ohio State so Low
October 24th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^
I'll be that guy:
I'm still expecting MSU's best game on Saturday. This is their last hurrah. Their Super Bowl. Their playoff. Their dignity. Bowl eligibility is almost certainly not in the cards anymore, but pulling off the upset saves their season regardless. If they have anything left in the tank, they're channeling what's left into Saturday. I'm expecting them to make the tackles they don't normally make, and make the catches they don't normally make.
I'm hoping the game is well out of hand by halftime, and on paper, it should be. But an opponent who plays like they have nothing to lose is a very dangerous opponent. And MSU will play like it has nothing to lose.
And then that probability for OSU is likely going to go down as we get closer. I expect them to be 11-1 coming into The Game. Not that we won't have a great shot to win regardless, but Vegas will probably have the game as a coin flip by the time kick-off rolls around. Being on the road at a place we haven't won since Clinton was in office can make people skeptical.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^
Completely agree. Whatever MSU can muster in pride, effort, and focus will be expended this Saturday to beat Michigan.
Dantonio is the master of #disrespect. I expect his kids will be highly, *highly* motivated to win this game.