Undefeated Iowa shut out of CFP?

Submitted by Vivz on

The possibility of Iowa winning the Big Ten chugs along with each week. This combined with ad nausem discussions of the Playoffs and rankings has led to a number of hottt taeks.

Many want to say an udefeated Power 5 Champ should be an automatic participant.  Should this always be the case?

Forgive the hypotheticals but I can easily see Iowa not making it being justified.

Top 4 can be

1) Undefeated SEC (LSU this year)

2) Undefeate ACC (Clemson this year)

3) Undefeated Big 12 (Either Baylor or TCU)

4) Undefeated Big 10 (For this scenario a weak Iowa)


Who could conceviably jump past Iowa?

A non power 5 undefeated:

Memphis: Beat Ole Miss and Houston

Houston: Is next weekends tilt with Memphis enough without a victory like Ole Miss?

A "sexier" PAC12 one loss teams:

Stanford: Overcome an early bad loss to NU but finishes strong over ND and Utah

Utah: Fell flat vs USC but has a victory over HARBAUGH

Most likely:

ND: Lost by 2 points on the road to Clemson (#1) 

What does all this come back to? The committee doesn't know what they are ranking on, and no rankings should occur before the season. Real hope is to see Okie State win out and have the Big 12 left out again.

/I wanted an excuse for a Friday drinking thread after seeing everyone say how they do not drink very often.



 

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kevin holt

November 6th, 2015 at 6:44 PM ^

If Iowa has beaten the Big Ten East champion, they won't be jumped by a 1-loss team (and not by Memphis/Houston, hopefully for reasons I need not get into). The answer to your Houston question is "no," and a win over OSU [edit: fuck] is better than a win over Ole Miss. Also, winning an actual conference.

Edit: Fuck me, I apparently have assumed OSU is winning the Big Ten East. Well, might as well leave my shame rather than run from it.

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turd ferguson

November 6th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^

I'm not so sure.  Compare Iowa's resume to Stanford's, for example.  Stanford lost to Northwestern, obviously, but here are the teams that each would have beaten (using current Sagarin ratings).  I'm skipping the championship games because we don't know who they'd play, but they'd each probably get a top opponent.

Iowa
19 Wisconsin
39 Pittsburgh
41 Northwestern
54 Nebraska
61 Iowa State
67 Illinois
69 Minnesota
73 Illinois State
80 Maryland
84 Minnesota
88 Purdue
176 North Texas

Stanford
7 USC 
8 Notre Dame
22 Washington 
26 UCLA 
29 California
32 Oregon
55 Washington State 
62 Arizona 
87 Colorado
95 Oregon State
148 UCF

That's a huge difference.  If I were a committee member, I'd have a hard time picking a Big Ten champion over a Pac 12 champion when they have these profiles.

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doggdetroit

November 6th, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^

The committee would take Iowa over Stanford. The four data points that the committee weights heavily are: championships won, strength of schedule, head to head (if applicable), and comparative outcomes of common opponents.

Both would have championships, Stanford may have the edge in strength of schedule, and head to head wouldn't come into play. However, both played Northwestern on the road. Stanford lost by 10 and Iowa won by 30. I find it hard to imagine the committee choosing Stanford over Iowa knowing this fourth data point exists.

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gwkrlghl

November 6th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^

Iowa will have precisely zero quality wins when the regular season ends. However, they would have to likely beat Ohio State in the B1G championship game and it would be hard to keep them out if they did that.

Then again, if Iowa is fighting for #4 with a one loss Alabama I think Iowa might be on the outside looking in. Alabama's wins vs. Iowa's SOS will probably cut them out

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B-Nut-GoBlue

November 6th, 2015 at 7:46 PM ^

Well you got Pitt, but add Northwestern and Wisconsin. Nothing amazing, but Bama is using Wiscy as a SOS measure so Iowa can, too. But way to cherry-pick the North Texas (style) team that many others have/will have.

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Vivz

November 6th, 2015 at 6:52 PM ^

I think those are the teams that have arguments against Iowa at that point. The only one I buy would be Notre Dame. 

Iowa's best win would obviously be the Big Ten title game, but that would be one game not a whole schedule.  

I don't see Iowa winning out; this will all be moot. We are a Northwestern victory over Stanford from having a possible undefeated team to represent all P5 leagues.

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doggdetroit

November 6th, 2015 at 8:56 PM ^

I would argue that Notre Dame outplayed Clemson and should have won.

ND put up over 400 yards of offense and held Clemson to under 300. It was a close game because ND had 4 turnovers. One of these turnovers came on a kickoff return fumble, giving Clemson the ball on ND's 30 yard line leading to 7 Clemson points . ND also had a shanked punt that gave Clemson the ball on ND's 40 yard line, leading to another 7 Clemson points. Another turnover occured on Clemson's goaline the drive before ND's almost game tying drive. Kelly also went for 2 when ND was down 24-9 and failed, requiring the 2 point conversion on the final drive.  If he goes for 1, it is 24-10 and the game eventually goes to OT after ND scores its final touchdown, despite all the turnovers.

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JohnnyV123

November 7th, 2015 at 1:16 AM ^

Yep, Notre Dame maybe SHOULD have won. The problem is, they didn't win. Just like we should have beaten MSU but did not. Turnovers, fucking up special teams, and coaching decisions are all part of the game and affect the final result.

This is why I like the committee and was happy with their choices at the end of the year last year. Conference championships matter. Wins and losses matter despite who on paper is better. 13 games played and 1 loss is better than 12 games played and 1 loss. SOS matters.

I sort of don't see how Notre Dame gets in unless you're picking 1 loss Notre Dame vs. 1 loss Big 12 champion. I guess we will see though how much credit they get for having a rough schedule.

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Doctor Wolverine

November 6th, 2015 at 7:33 PM ^

I guess it's possible, but for all practical purposes, no. An undefeated Iowa will go to the playoffs. If they are able to win the B1G championship (and I don't think they are), then they can compete with anyone in the country.

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doggdetroit

November 6th, 2015 at 8:03 PM ^

Iowa has three wins over current teams that are at least fringe top 25 teams (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pitt). Two of these wins came on the road. They would likely face another top 5 to top 15 opponent in the B1G title game (Michigan, OSU, MSU or even PSU). A 13-0 Iowa would have a very good resume and a B1G title, which the committee strongly values. They would be in the top 4 easily.

 

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