UM vs MSU: Does the better team usually win?
It's rivalry week and there has already been much discussion on this Saturday's game. Here's some more. Does the better team (as measured by the overall records that season) usually win?
In the 21st century there have been only four instances where the "lesser" team won. All four of those instances were Sparty wins. But, in all four instances Michigan's season record was only one game better than MSU's. Also, for all four there was something memorable about the season:
2001: Spartan Bob ( https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/spartan-bob-10-year-anniversary )
2011: Brady Hoke's "pooping gold" year
2020: COVID-19 (and no Nico, no Ambry, etc.)
2021: Spartan Ref (a missed safety)
There haven't been any cases of an average team (again, as measured by season record) beating a good team. If the teams were 7-0 and 6-1 (or 6-1 and 5-2, etc.) now I could see getting nervous. But, Michigan is currently 7-0 and MSU is 3-4. If Sparty wins on Saturday we'll be witnessing a bad kind of history.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan%E2%80%93Michigan_State_football_rivalry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Michigan_Wolverines_football_seasons
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Michigan_State_Spartans_football_seasons
October 24th, 2022 at 7:53 AM ^
I swear to God if we get upset. I am looking back on THIS post as the jinx...
Have a good day!
October 24th, 2022 at 8:14 AM ^
:) Do not listen to Sam Webb this week.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:38 AM ^
I was listening to him last week, and in his prepping for MSU segment, he said if you’re not willing to talk smack during the week, then you shouldn’t have the right to talk smack after the game, either, because you (paraphrasing here) “didn’t invest anything” into the game or the spirit of the rivalry. You didn’t put anything on the line.
I personally think that’s a load of crap, and while he does have some good content with the folks he brings on the show….. dude, you’re a radio host. You don’t have any true skin in this game, either, so it’s easy for you to sit there and talk crap because you don’t really have to face the media or be accountable for the result on the field if it goes sideways. Don’t pretend like you have anything truly invested in this like the players and coaches do.
What’s wrong with just wanting to do your talking on the field? Having some respect for the fact that MSU shows up and plays its A-game against Michigan every, single, time? I’d personally rather not open my mouth because MSU has a really bad habit of shutting Michigan up. He should know that by now.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:51 AM ^
Then, why are we all on this blog and talk smack? Just have serious talk all the time. Come on. It is fun. I know a lot of spartys. My boss is a sparty. It is fun. I am not going to tell you to have fun, but I am going to talk smack. I don't play either. Have a great serious week. Geez...
October 24th, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
I'm not telling you to not talk smack. I don't care if you, Sam Webb, or anyone does. Go for gusto, pal. You do you.
But where I was kind of scratching my head with his segment is that if I don't talk smack before the game, then apparently I have no right to talk smack after the game. I don't think there's anything wrong with just not wanting to say anything until the final result is in. Like it or not, MSU has won this game more times than not in the last 10-15 years.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
I didn't mean to put you down. That is not my thing unless it is a sparty this week. :) Yes. He did say that and said that about both MSU and UM fans who are afraid to talk before the results in and called them soft. It is his spiel. He was mainly talking about sparty not talking and he is saying don't talk if you end up winning. He included UM fans at the end. Just clarifying his stance. I am having fun still listening. It is just his opinion and we do not have to agree with everything he says. But, it is hilarious. For me. Go Blue!
October 24th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
No offense given, and none taken!
Everyone has a right to do their own thing with how they treat this week. But for me, I came into my Michigan fandom in 2008, my freshman year. Which, coincidentally, was riiiiiight around the time when this rivalry started going south for Michigan. So my memories and experiences with this rivalry have involved pain and heartbreak more often than not. I didn't get to experience JLS slapping himself, Braylonfest, and the many other years of utter dominance Michigan exerted in this rivalry.
I'm just more pre-disposed to nervousness of this game than many others because outside of 2019, I've never witnessed a good MSU beatdown. Even the wins in 2012, 2016 and 2018 were games that Michigan had to grind through and earn.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
The alternative is to not talk at all and enjoy yourself and throw barbs for the next year based on your team's performance.
In my case, as a former semi-serious jock, if someone talked smack it was motivation for me. I chose a path where I would not want to give any possible advantage to my opponent. I am also from the camp where your performance on the field was smack talk in its purest form.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
weird.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:05 AM ^
Sam seems like a good guy and I appreciate much of his information reporting. But he says plenty of stupid stuff too. The player and coach in me has no understanding of "Hate Week".
October 24th, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
I don't take any issue with him as a person. I'm sure he's a great guy, and frankly I have no real issue with him as a radio host, either. He's an entertainer, he's got to find a way to entertain his listeners and keep bringing them back. Sometimes you say some more inflammatory things to ruffle some feathers. I get that.
All I was disagreeing with him on is that people who don't talk crap about Sparty before the game don't have any right to talk smack after the game, should Michigan win. Apparently that is reserved for the select few who opted to talk beforehand as well.
I don't buy that at all.
Doesn't mean I'm going to stop listening to his segments. He puts some really good stuff out there with the MGoBlog Roundtable, Friday segments with John Bacon, etc. I just personally choose not to talk crap about MSU because I'm reasonably confident in that how they've played up until now is not going to be indicative of how they play on Saturday. I'd personally just rather see how this all plays out before I start talking. But I don't think that excludes me from being able to talk after the game, should it go well for Michigan.
October 24th, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^
Sam's comment about Kenneth Walker rushing for a lot of "Cotton Candy" yards was a real winner.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Maybe I'm overly humble / not aggressive enough / too "nice," but I'm the exact opposite. In everything. I'm usually pretty quiet beforehand. I'm not afraid to say if I think myself or my team is the better half of the matchup and most likely will win, if that's what I honestly believe I'll say it, but that's typically as far as I go. A mix of just being respectful but also knowing almost anything can happen, and I simply feel people who run their mouths and then lose, look like fools.
I'm also a gracious winner, unless you talked shit beforehand. In that case I am actually pretty merciless, probably worse than the people who just talk shit all the time.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
They do?
All time record is 71-38-5 so if their bad habit is doing something once every 3 games I guess you’re right.
Michigan is home, healthy, pissed and rested. We also have a MUCH better team. We always get their best shot but this year it won’t be nearly enough.
Michigan 34-10. Tuck goin.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^
And we're 4-11 in the last 15.
Historically, yes, Michigan absolutely owns MSU. But that's not the story its been over the last 15 years. That's not what the narrative of this rivalry is at this current moment in time, or what the scoreboards have said of late.
That said, I largely agree with your second points. All indicators point to Michigan winning this year, and everything on paper is massively to Michigan's advantage. I have to believe they are locked in and laser-focused after what went down last year, and Kenneth Walker is not walking through that door for MSU. I'm just more hesitant to start talking smack about them before the game than most others, I suppose. My fandom didn't start until I went to UM, right in RichRod's first year in 2008, so I didn't get to bask in all the glory years that a lot of others around here did.
I came in right as MSU starting flipping this rivalry on its head, so maybe that's why I'm a little more pre-disposed to being worried about MSU.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
And your slice of history discounts the 30-8 advantage that Michigan enjoyed before Rich Rod / Hoke / Dantonio era.
So you only need to ask yourself, is Tuck Dantonio? Is Harbaugh Rich Rod / Hoke?
Answer those question and you should feel much better about where this game is headed to.
Bottom line:
Tuck <<<<<<<< Dantonio
Harbaugh >>>>>>>> Rich Rod / Hoke
October 24th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
And we're 4-11 in the last 15.
Not that it disproves your point, but you're giving them an extra win. We were 0-3 against them under RR, 1-3 under Hoke and are 3-4 under Harbaugh. Prior to that. Carr finished on a six-game winning streak in the series.
October 24th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
Touche.
But still, as you alluded to, 4-10 really isn't much better than 4-11.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Wow what a SHIITAKE!!!
October 24th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
I do not think you need to adhere to his advise but I think Sam has a point. If you are not willing to talk shit before the game out of fear that MSU will continue their habit of "shutting Michigan up" than you probably shouldn't talk shit afterwards.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
i was unaware there were guidelines about shit talking
October 24th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
I can understand a bit of what he’s saying. MSU fans go silent when they’re team is bad and become the most insufferable pricks after the game if they win. They’re totally front runners. Have pride in your team before the game and engage in friendly smack talk/banter. We’re not players, we have no effect on the game.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
At least he's consistent
October 24th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
Sam Webb is a dumb ass and is especially unbearable around this game
October 24th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Worst week of his show. It should be beneath him but alas, it’s not. Someone with the least amount of skin in the game should not talk so much shit. It’s embarrassing.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
And he's missing 2015.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
I will put it right up there with 15 years of "Weve got nothing to worry about the Spartans are trash" and I dont mean their bad years I mean every year.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:13 AM ^
That was my first thought when I saw and started reading.
But.....it is good to know regardless. And as God as my witness, Michigan will spank Sparty silly on Saturday.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Nah, even if we beat 'em by 20, they'll claim they retained their dignity, were within reach, etc. And Michigan fans, being congenitally insecure, will let it get to them, wear it like a pebble in their shoe until next year, when they'll start biting their nails again. This is VERY rarely a game that you simply "win."
October 24th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
And we will mock their dignity as couches burn.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
This game does not affect our season. We should beat them for the sheer satisfaction of it.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
Except it completely does
October 24th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
Nope. Not to mention the best thing for Michigan has been losing to that program the last two years which resulted in them locking in tucker. We still control our destiny as they drift into further national irrelevance.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
they've currently locked in a coach who "owns Jim Harbaugh". A lot of spartans are ok with that regardless of the rest of their season.
I want to beat them 70 to 0 on saturday. I think Michigan WILL win, but the last 15 years should have chipped away at any rational fan's confidence.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
Rational fan here. Confidence is fine, thanks for the concern. 2020 was completely irrelevant and 21 was a fluke confluence of bad calls and a transfer portal miracle. The whole "owning Harbaugh" schtick is bullshit. The guy is a winner as a player, a coach and a human being. Also a guy who will win this Saturday against a horseshit coach. Bet on it.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
What good does it do to lock Tucker in if he consistently beats M? Won't do us any good, and it's probably good enough for him to keep his job.
Time for Tuck to truly own that 'horseshit coach' comment.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
Big picture:a losing record and no bowl eligibility yearly with a win against us annually would not make all their fans happy and would put that program back in the dark ages where it belongs.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
63% of their fans would. The ones that spend exactly whatever % of the Michigan game they are ahead watching MSU football that year.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:19 AM ^
You shut your whore mouth
October 24th, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^
One thing you have to give Dantonio was he had a pure unfiltered hate for Michigan. His manifested that to his players. Just not sure Tucker and his transfers have the same feelings. So that part is good. 2 yrs ago was a covid scrimmage, last year was KW3. This year barring a monsoon or snow storm I don't see it. Go Blue!
October 24th, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^
Yes, but he also beat Michigan during the lean Rich Rod and Hoke years, aside from the fluke punt game. When Harbaugh beats Sparty, he pounds them.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
One of three Michigan wins against MSU under Harbaugh have been poundings -- 2019 with a 44-10 win. The other two wins were 32-23 and 21-7. Meh, a win is a win for sure but 9 and 14 point victories are not anything to beat our chests about. How about at least beating MSU like we beat a better (than MSU) PSU team? Or how we beat a MUCH better (than MSU) OSU team? I want to see this Michigan team leave it all on the field against MSU, similar to the PSU and OSU games.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
What? Leave it all on the field against Sparty? So we have nothing left for Nebraska and Rutger?
October 24th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Yes. Correct. Leave it all on the field for 2.5 quarters, get up big, then rest your starters up for Nebraska and Rutger. That's the play right there.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Wasn't the 32-23 game the one where Sparty scored with like 1 second left in the game to do exactly what you are trying to proclaim? Defeat with Dignity...
So essentially each of Harbaughs wins have been by double digits...
PS: I looked it up to verify, this game was 30-10 with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, yes a beatdown....
October 24th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
It was 30-17 with 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Two score game and MSU had all three timeouts remaining. The sub-topic here was Harbaugh beat downs of MSU. This game was not one of them. The PSU game just last week was a beat down, a second half beat down but a beat down nonetheless. I just want to make sure we are calibrated here.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
it wasnt a blowout, but it wasn't competitive. taht was the peppers returning a late last second 2 pt try for the 2 points to get us to 32.
30-17 is the legit score. They scored very late and went for 2 to save face, and peppers picked up the fumble and sprinted down for the 2 pt conversion.
Agree, not a blowout, but it wasn't really a competitive game.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
Sparty was never in that game, yes they scored to make it 30-17, but they also were still down 30-17 with 37 seconds left in the game.
Also, Sparty scored on their first drive to start the game (Dantonio's 365 day scripted drive) and didn't score another TD until the 2 fourth quarter TDs to make the score look closer than what the beat down was. I would compare this game closer to this years Iowa game.
Anyone who watched the game knew this was a lopsided win. Yet Iowa scores late and a little bit of paranoia sets in but the better team was having nothing of it.....