UM Alum Jane Coaston on the new style of QB; does it apply to JJ?

Submitted by DaftPunk on February 12th, 2023 at 1:03 PM

Multi-topic writer Jane Coaston, who cut her journalistic teeth writing for The Daily has an article in the New York Times (This Super Bowl Is the Start of Something New) about how the new style of mobile, run threat quarterbacking embodied by Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (she name checks Denard) represents the college game influencing the NFL, and the end of the era of the pocket passer.

It made me wonder about how NFL scouts look at JJ, who might be able to have the same kind of game (second half v. TCU,) but whose talents in that style of play are sidelined by the Harbaugh smashmouth run it up the middle, throw to tight ends style (first half v. TCU.)

I think we'd all like to see a fully weaponized QB run threat, and I don't know that we ever will.  Will we need to see his NFL career to fully know how JJ embodies this style of play?  Will scouts grade him on what he could do, instead of what our offense lets him do? The QB position is notoriously hard to scout, and it would be awesome if we're still mentioning JJ's name in comparison to these MVP caliber players five years from now.

Jordan2323

February 12th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^

I don’t think we can answer this question fully until this upcoming year. JJ now has all kinds of weapons, a ridiculously deep oline, a complete grasp of the playbook and now has the requisite game experience (good and bad) for Harbaugh to trust him, but time will tell whether he’s let loose more or is he still held to be conservative and ball control oriented. 

UM85

February 12th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^

Harbaugh let Andrew Luck run 50 - 60 times a season at Stanford.  That worked out pretty well for balancing the Cardinal's offense (and yes, Andrew Luck was a stud and JJ still has to improve to get to that level - but is capable of doing it).  Harbaugh is willing to allow situational running by his QB's.

Jordan2323

February 12th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^

I’m not just referring to running the ball, I’m also talking about waggles and rpo’s that utilize his mobility. Mahomes doesn’t run the ball like Michael Vick did but he uses his mobility to make plays. That’s what I want to see more of and would expect to see more of in his second full year as a starter. 

ERdocLSA2004

February 12th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^

I agree.  Mahomes may be considered a mobile qb when compared with the statues of the game.  However, I think he does an excellent job of keeping the defense honest and taking what the defense gives him.  He’s not making cuts, or doing anything flashy.  He really is doing what all qbs for all of eternity should have been doing by making the defense account for him as a runner.  JJ could easily do this, the question is whether or not he is being coached to do this.

JonnyHintz

February 12th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^

Problem is, over the course of a 13 game season that’s 3.8 - 4.6 carries per game, including sacks. “Let” him run also ignores the times the QB scrambled on his own to avoid pressure. That’s not Harbaugh “letting” his QB do anything, it’s his QB improvising. 
 

Theres also the fact that JJ ran the ball 70 times this season. More than Andrew Luck did in any single season. We’re still left with the need for more QB runs to operate this offense at maximum capacity.  JJ should receive ~7-8 carries a game to compliment this offense. Nothing overboard, but keep defenses honest and punish when they over pursue. 

Derek

February 12th, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^

It seems pretty clear that JJ fits this new school of QB play given the impact he's had so far as both a passer and runner. Hopefully he'll be more consistent this year, but it's not really fair to measure a true sophomore and first-year starter against one of the best ever on the one hand and a former Heisman finalist and current MVP candidate on the other.

BTW, the "throw to tight ends style" bit is funny because Mahomes loves throwing to his tight end.

Bluesince89

February 12th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^

I honestly can't remember and I don't care enough to look it up in depth, but if someone knows off the top of their head/knows football more in depth, how different is what Harbaugh is doing now versus with her with Kaepernick? I get Kaepernick was probably more of a true run threat - especially in college just glancing at his stats - than JJ probably is/will be, but it's not like Harbaugh isn't accustomed to playing with that style of QB. Hell, Alex Smith wasn't exactly a statute either. He played under Urban Meyer. 

Goblueman

February 12th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^

JJ has the speed to be a dual threat NFL QB but his forte is his passing ability..Dual threat QB's Hurts,Mahomes,Fields,Trey Lance and Lamar were all injured this season,Mahomes the only 1 who didn't miss a game. 

bronxblue

February 12th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^

But so did Matt Stafford, Mac Jones, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, Tua, and a number of other QBs who aren't necessarily run threats.  Justin Herbert dealt with an injured shoulder most of the year.  QBs get hurt largely because they are smooshed by 260+ lb guys with 10% body fat running at close to 20 mph.  It's just physics, and while some guys stay healthier than others my guess is there's some survivor bias in that moreso than an actual proclivity to getting injured because you run around a bit.

viewfromalbany

February 12th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^

My thought is injury risk.  UM has won 2 straight v OSU with a healthy QB.  Lost several without - always remember O’Korn game. Would like to see JJ run 6-8X / game, especially when it matters.  Remember Super Bowl QB’s suffered late season injuries. In summary, mobility has become imperative at QB, but has to be managed given injury risk.

bronxblue

February 12th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^

I thought it was a really interesting article but I don't get this argument that McCarthy last year was being "held back" by the offensive gameplan.  It felt just as much that the gameplan was in place to take the pressure off McCarthy and not ask him to do too much because he was, as is expected for a first-year starter, inconsistent.  

For example, everyone remembers the first half of the OSU game where McCarthy threw for 200 yards on 2 TDs on 2 huge chunk throws; less well-remembered was the second half where he threw a TD (and ran one in) but also completed 40% of his passes for 58 yards, none in the 4th quarter.  McCarthy was much more dangerous on the ground in that second half than in the air and that was seemingly the gameplan.

The second half against TCU was points-y but that was largely because McCarthy played really poorly in the first half, throwing the pick-six, running into some sacks, and generally looking a bit overwhelmed.  He settled down a bit and played better but still threw another pick-six on a bad read and some of his biggest throws were as much due to TCU defensive breakdowns than steely-eyed offensive exeuction.

I absolutely believe McCarthy will take a step forward this coming year and will be on NFL radars, but he's still got to develop as a downfield passer (he absolutely struggled for long stretches at that this year) and in making quicker decisions against better defenses.  Those two picks against TCU were lazy throws that he telegraphed from the snap, and against Illinois he repeatedly struggled to hit guys who were open because he didn't pull the trigger on open throws or waited too long for guys to break open instead of leading them.  that isn't an indictment of him as a player or a future pro but just to push back against the idea he'd be a Mahommes or Hurts if only Harbaugh would "let" him.  

DonAZ

February 12th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^

I don't really watch the NFL much, so a question: to what degree do either Mahomes or Hurts really put themselves at risk?  Do they risk their body for that extra yard, or do they get what they can and then either run out of bounds or slide?

I will never forget that game where Dylan McCaffrey took off on a run, got a good chunk of yards, then decided he wanted to go for even more.  Trouble is, there was a safety in his way.  So he lowered his shoulder, popped the safety ... and broke his collar bone.

Hence my question about balancing the risk/reward of QB runs.  How do Mahomes and Hurts manage that?

1VaBlue1

February 12th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^

They don't.  They don't necessarily get designed carries like Michael Vick or RGIII did.  Yeah, they get plays that have them running, but it's intended to look identical to a rollout, or something like that to mess with the defense.  You won't see them going through the middle, or trying to make a LB miss.

maquih

February 12th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^

> I think we'd all like to see a fully weaponized QB run threat

Not me. McCarthy averages like 5 yards a carry and 8 yards per attempt.  Yes the running threat is a great change up that opens up the offense but how much more do you want him to run when passing is so much more efficient for him?  And, every run you call for McCarthy is one taken away from Corum and Edwards who are both excellent running backs.  I think it's pretty perfectly balanced as it was against ohio for example, though clearly early in the season playcalling was extra conservative since there was no need to make things complicated against wholly overmatched opponents.

 

 

 

snarling wolverine

February 12th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^

I’m fine with using JJ in the regular season like we did in 2022.  Save his legs for the big games.  Having a healthy QB against OSU has been a nice change.

Just don’t be afraid to run him in the first half of the Playoff.

MGoCarolinaBlue

February 12th, 2023 at 5:44 PM ^

This is the ticket. It's amazing how quickly people can forget that QB injuries have been brutal on Michigan in recent memory.

Michigan should have a vast talent advantage in all but 3-4 games per year, including post-season, and should minimize QB runs in all but those games. Call no more than 1-2 per week to keep the kids fresh on the concepts and execution and let the James Franklins of the world continue to fall into the trap of thinking Michigan won't break tendencies. Even the national media types that don't follow Michigan specifically have started to catch on that this has been Michigan's approach with QB runs all along.

As for TCU, yeah we should have gone to JJ's legs sooner but that philosophy on the QB run game just needs a very small amount of fine-tuning, not to be thrown out entirely. And FWIW, we still should have beaten TCU with the gameplan we had.... Michigan got absurdly, ridiculously unlucky in that game, in a very specific mathematical sense that refers to your "good luck" happening in low-leverage situations that don't impact the scoreboard, and your "bad luck" happening in high-leverage situations that take points off the board and spot them to the other team instead.

To add to that, Michigan's players came into the game cold and made tons of uncharacteristic mistakes, which is on them for blinking in the big moment, and I think a lot of people are also not properly evaluating the impact of Schoonmaker's early injury on Michigan's gameplan. Colston Loveland is very talented but he is still a true freshman and he is not yet on the same level as Erick All or Luke Schoonmaker in the ground game. Being down to our 3rd option who is also a true freshman is a nerf to our run game with 11 personnel, and basically takes those multiple TE sets out of the playbook entirely.

So, should they have gone to McCarthy's legs in the first quarter? Yes. But like I said, fine-tune the approach, don't scrap it.

stephenrjking

February 12th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

There's some conflation going on here. 

Mahomes and Hurts are not the same guy, and it's kind of unfair to suggest that they are. Mahomes is mobile and does damage with his legs, but very little of what he does with his legs is designed. He's an elite improviser. Hurts, in contrast, is much more integrated into the running game, much like Lamar Jackson. 

I am delighted that guys like Hurts and Jackson in offenses that fully utilize the full breadth of their talent. It's great for the sport. Finally, after decades of running types getting shunted into bad offensive fits or dismissed for not fitting into one-size-fits-all styles, there are different offenses available for guys with different tools. This contrasts with someone like Michael Vick, who was wedged into a West Coast offense that was completely wrong for what he is as a QB (West Coast is built on short throws, timing, and accuracy, all from the pocket; Vick was electric with his feet, great at improvisation, and equipped with a Howitzer for an arm--West Coast could not have been more wrong) and for whom there really was no offense that was designed to utilize what he was. 

Now there are such offenses, and Hurts QBs one of them. The QB run threat is integral to how they build their running game. It's good.

It's also different than KC; the QB run option is *not* integral to how they build their run game. It doesn't mean they don't use it, but the offense is just fine without that. Rather, Mahomes does damage with his legs by working beyond the designed action of the play. He's great at it. Both he and Hurts change how the offense functions, but they do it in different ways.

JJ can do damage with his legs, and the offense is designed to use him as a run threat a bit. But he's not a guy that's going to be a Hurts/Jackson type. And Michigan would be unwise to try to use him that way. Give him a few keeps to keep the defense honest, but use his passing to do most of the damage. I'd like to see him get better at the improvisational stuff, but he's not actually that great at it yet; some of that may have to do with the receivers, too, it's hard to tell. But there's a whole offseason to work on that stuff, something he didn't even have last year. 

Michigan could stand to use JJ as a run threat just a bit more in certain spots, but they will never turn him into a Hurts/Jackson type. They would have already, frankly; no staff is better equipped to replicate what Baltimore does with Jackson than Michigan. They haven't, because they're gunshy about him getting hurt. And with how recent years have gone, I don't blame them. 

treetown

February 12th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^

That a is crucial distinction.

A QB that runs to avoid sacks, prolong plays and to move the pock to lessen the pressure on an OL and who can pick up a first down on a busted pass play (e.g. everyone is covered, but mostly man-to-man so there is an open 7-12 yard lane) is what we may see more of.

A QB that is carrying the ball on designed run plays with or without some sort of run/pass option or spread option with the running back is a risky proposition - these franchise QBs after their rookie contracts are eating up a huge amount of the salary cap space and every running play is a risk of  season ending injury. NOW, if teams and coaches are willing to play more than one QB then this second sort of running by the QB becomes a viable option. (this idea was floated in the past and roundly derided). We've seen this year teams if they are strong in general can go far with their 2nd and 3rd QB.

Look at how baseball pitching has moved away from the idea that one guy should go all 9 innings or the staff needs 3 pitchers who can go all 9 innings - laughable now, but once this was the standard.

Blarvey

February 12th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^

It seems guys like Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Josh Allen were/are a sort of third hybrid category in that gives you the QB run option if nobody is open plus the pass to set up QB run which works well with 240+ pound guys that can scoot. JJ isn't that guy physically, at least right now.

trueblueintexas

February 12th, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^

Here are this seasons stats to support your comments:

Mahomes

Carries: 61

Yards: 358

Yards/Game: 21.0 (17 games)

Hurts

Carries: 165

Yards: 760

Yards/Game: 50.6 (15 games)

McCarthy

Carries: 70

Yards: 306

Yards/Game: 21.8 (14 games)

 

McCarthy and Mahomes basically have the same stats but accumulated them very differently. MacCarthy's rushing yards mostly came on designed runs. Mahomes primarily came from scrambles on broken passing plays. 

Hurts is in a completely different category. 

 

 

njvictor

February 12th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

I don't really think I consider Mahomes as a "mobile run threat" QB. Can he pick up some yards if they're there? Sure, but he's not a Hurts, Murray, or Jackson level runner and it's not really a defining facet of his game. QBs these days are just better athletes

Willstud99

February 12th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

If I’ve learned anything about NFL scouts it’s that they will bend over backwards to look at a QB in the juuuuuuuuust the right light so that he’s draftable. I think JJ will be fine

turtleboy

February 12th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^

Not saying that she doesn't raise a good point, but I feel like I've spent my entire football watching life with NFL quarterbacks who could also run, including superbowl winning Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Steve Young, just to name a few. 

SalvatoreQuattro

February 12th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^

Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert exist.

Also this isn’t a new style. Up until  the 80’s or 90’s statues were the norm in the league.

Staubach, Tarkenton, Young, Elway, Graham, Layne, Montana…all guys who could move and weren’t stationary like Bradshaw or Brady.

tigerd

February 12th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^

Running quarterbacks are great until they run and get crushed. The greatest qb of all time may have been one of the worst runners ever but he knew how to keep his body healthy. Do you really want the bulk of your franchises salary allotment putting himself at risk time and time again.

MgoBlueprint

February 12th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^

I think that JJ will be fine at the next level. He’s a faster and more mobile Joe Burrow.  Both are about 6’3”. JJ has a ~top 10 NFL arm. Burrow runs a 4.9 and I think JJ runs about a hair under 4.6

Eng1980

February 12th, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^

How do NFL scouts/organizations look at any QB?  What is the definition of the new style of mobile as in how do you measure it and how do we know it is new or even exists?  

mgoja

February 12th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^

If a somewhat sturdier JJ shows up in September (~10lbs heavier) and there's more on field evidence of a solid backup behind him by early October, maybe the coaching staff will utilize JJ's legs a bit more.