Track meet football

Submitted by uofmfan_13 on January 11th, 2021 at 9:40 PM

The game has changed (been changed for a while) and like many astute posters here have noted... Offense wins championships now. Period. Elite offense wins. Beating Iowa 10-3 isn't going to cut it.

Oh, and tempo. Can Michigan under Harbaugh run tempo? Is there any hope of this in the coming year? This is track meet football and Michigan needs to start getting its many athletes in position.

Ajcoss

January 11th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^

While not a Harbaugh fan, it isn’t impossible. Important we hire better OC/DC and a recruiting director that is very buttoned up. Michigan should NEVER be the spot where a guy calls OC plays for the first time. DC if Macdonald will be interesting, more flexibility on the D though in college football these days. Need a guy to try and stop the big play. This is why I love Heacock at isu. (Campbell was great because he’s a 2-1 with Heacock). Saban is a D guy, game has changed and he has evolved to be the Ceo like Dabo. His D gets some stops, but one of his most important  decisions nowadays is who he hires to run the O. Lane was great, Locksley was solid, Sark is great, I bet Bill O’Brien will do well. None of those came w/o a ton of experience. I see Harbaugh just needs to be a better ceo. Hire better guys and get out of way. Gattis as first time guy, Brown as the guy who gives up more big plays due to 1-1 coverage than anyone, and Dudek who is super unorganized and frankly average at best at his job. Dudek needs to go along with Gattis as OC play caller.

 

MGoCarolinaBlue

January 11th, 2021 at 11:43 PM ^

Correct, it's about managing variance. More plays = more opportunities for superior talent to take over / more opportunities for reversion to the mean. (Also more opportunities for players to get injured)

Though if you are running the ball successfully you shouldn't abandon that just for the sake of running more plays.

Ajcoss

January 11th, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^

Two things I notice that’s paramount. Go get the best QB coach in college. Who has been great at developing college QB’s. Keep it simple. We need WAY BETTER QB play. Gotta figure it out. Second, get a play caller on O that has experience in getting his best players the ball. Simple, go get TOM HERMAN or JOE MOORHEAD. We need one of these two this year. 

bronxblue

January 11th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^

I'dl like to point out that Michigan played a pretty close approximation to this Alabama team last year and didn't look out of place.  Bama looked better in the end but Michigan's defense was absolutely putting up more of an effort than OSU's is right now.  Different years and all that, but Michigan can get those athletes to play with the elite teams, they just can't always get them and usually it takes a couple years of seasoning.  Michigan can't reload like Bama or OSU but they also aren't so out of their league that they can't compete periodically.  

ScoutExile

January 11th, 2021 at 9:58 PM ^

This isn’t going to be a popular take, but you’re right. We do have enough talent to compete with OSU and Alabama. Hell, Indiana had enough talent to play OSU within one score this season. 

Everyone likes to point at player development, but the biggest issue we’ve had is retaining talent. We’ve had one of the highest transfer rates in the country, and, when combined with opt-outs, the resulting lack of depth was a big reason why this this past season was such a dumpster fire.  

Golden section

January 11th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^

We have a ton of speed at the WR position. Worthy, Wilson and Jackson all have sub 4.4 speed. We have two 5 stars and a high 4 star at RB and none are even starting. We have talent. We just don't develop it. Braylon Edwards was the last 1ts rounder at a skilled position.

What I'm seeing tonight isn't so much that the talent is so much better but that the play calling is that much more creative.

Devonta Smith has 215 yards 3 tds and 12 receptions in a half. They line him up everywhere. Slot outside inside and runningback. He changes direction all the time. You take you best players and you figure out how to give them the rock as much as you can in different and creative ways. 

There is a much bigger gap in play calling than talent.

 

bronxblue

January 11th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^

I think the transfer rates fluctuate over the years; Michigan had a rash that hit this year in addition to a bunch of guys transferring; there have also been years where they've not lost anyone of real importance.  Guys who are low on the depth chart do leave, and it's always a balancing act for top teams where the guy who's 2nd or 3rd on the chart may well still be a P5-level player.  

I do agree that player retention is big, and that falls on both the coach at the top as well as the position coaches to keep an even temperature of their squads.

trueblueintexas

January 11th, 2021 at 10:11 PM ^

I appreciate the optimistic take, the results simply don’t support it.

2019: Alabama: 35-16, OSU: 56:27

2018: OSU: 62-39

2017: OSU: 31-20

2016: OSU: 30-27

2015: OSU: 42-13

2014: OSU 42-28

2013: OSU: 42-41

2012: Alabama: 41-14, OSU: 26-21

2011: OSU: WIN!!! 40-34

Nine years. 11 games. 1-10 record. Only three games were within 10 points. Average score in the 10 losses 40.7 - 24.6.

If by close you meant at kick-off, I agree. 
God, that was painful Please don’t make me do something like that again.

bronxblue

January 11th, 2021 at 10:29 PM ^

My point is that in 2016 and 2017, the talent was close enough.  The last 2 years defensively the wheels just came off against OSU, but Michigan against Alabama last season gave up about 480 yards of total offense; OSU gave up about 400 yards in a half.  

My point is that Michigan can't go up against OSU year in/year out; they just don't recruit quite at that level.  But they absolutely can compete with the truly elite programs in the country at certain intervals.

trueblueintexas

January 11th, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^

Part of the problem with where Michigan’s program is at vs the elite teams is Michigan has to play a perfect game to even stay close with the hopes of a lucky break to help them win. The elite teams don’t. This puts a ton of pressure on the players and eventually that causes a mistake to happen and a close game spirals out of control quickly. 
I think some this also stems from Harbaugh’s personality and partly explains why Hoke’s teams played better against OSU than Harbaugh’s have. Say what you want about Hoke he was big on competing but still more relaxed. Harbaugh always seems tense like he eats chicken all day.

ScoutExile

January 11th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^

Along those same lines, you could have sat there and screamed about Tesla being a scam and never making a quarterly profit at any time since its founding until Q1 of 2020; however, that sort of lens wouldn’t have set you up for buying their stock and achieving investment success. 

 

Things change and sometimes the past isn’t a good indication of future success at all.

bronxblue

January 11th, 2021 at 11:22 PM ^

Well, using this analogy the Michigan program's current success would be due to them, I don't know, giving away stored-up defensive TDs they get from the NCAA that other schools simply purchase from them in exchange for offensive TDs in actual games.  Honestly, it's hard to find a football analogy to selling pollution credits.

sheepdog

January 11th, 2021 at 9:49 PM ^

Bucks getting a taste of their own medicine getting shredded by speedy fast receivers. They look like us playing them. The game has changed indeed.

MGoStrength

January 11th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^

I don't have a problem with our offensive recruiting.  We just need to do a better job at installing and/or playcalling.  I know we want speed in space.  We just haven't gotten it yet.  The other thing is Mac Jones is hitting his WRs in stride every time.  We miss open WRs like it's nobody's business.  

KC Wolve

January 11th, 2021 at 9:56 PM ^

Agree. Even when UM gets a reception it almost always seems like the WR is flat footed or moving in the wrong direction. Hitting fast guys in stride so they can change direction on their own or keep going in a straight line is huge.