Texas to allow spectators at outdoor sporting events
The kicker, of course, is the limit of 25% of capacity:
https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29235637/texas-let-fans-attend-pro-sports-events-25-capacity
Expect this to be the standard going forward.
Going to be a shit show, I would guess. But we'll see soon enough.
Agreed. I don't know how much letting 20,000 fans would increase the risk at a Michigan football game, but considering it's more than 0% and the season already looks dicey at best, I don't want any fans.
A lot of people here just want to open things up anyway, so I'd be curious what they think the response should be if a college coach dies of covid19 because that is not at all unlikely. Hard to put a confidence level on it, but I feel like a coach being hospitalized due to covid19 is practically guaranteed. A lot of them are in the age range where death itself is basically a 25% chance.
LOL a lot of downvotes but no answer. If it's fine that some coach dies, then just say that. It doesn't make you evil. A lot of people seem to be living in magic fairy land where we just go back to normal but people don't die. As if a coach dying is some crazy idea.
Even 100 year olds dont have a 25% chance of dying if they catch Covid
Wow it's garbage made up stats like this that has many unfortunately scared.
I know this is difficult for people to wrap their minds around, but the goal should NOT be to prevent any chance that anyone dies ever.
The goal should be to mitigate spread so as to keep the virus from overwhelming the health care system and subsequently causing panic such that people won’t go to work and send their kids to school.
This is a similar dynamic to the issue of big data. On the individual level, there’s no huge benefit to having your data (purchasing, travel patterns, what causes you to post on a political topic). But having the data of Millions of people leads to the Cambridge Analytica and FB situations. There’s no number of grains of sand that, greater than that, you have a beach. Less than that, you don’t.
"I know this is difficult for people to wrap their minds around, but the goal should NOT be to prevent any chance that anyone dies ever."
This. It's an insane and unworkable standard to say that we stop doing things to avoid some people dying. We can limit things to avoid an overwhelming number of people dying. Once the lockdown rationale moved from "we must avoid overwhelming the hospital system"- which had almost unanimous backing from people- to "we must continue lockdown to stop people dying"- that's the moment where large numbers of people started to disagree.
The problem is, we need to maintain a low enough infection rate to avoid another (or 1st in most parts of the nation) explosion in infection rates. That's a very fine line to naviage b/c it's a run away feedback system (not a negative feedback system that wants to return to stability). As soon as we go too far, case rates will likely accelerate such that another shut down is needed. No one really knows how far is too far, hence the slow gradual openings.
Keeping R_0 below 1.1 is probably necessary. Keeping it below 0.8 probably requires too much of an indefinite shut down.
It's a really interesting discussion. I'm involved in helping hospitals accommodate and procure facilities for covid while being able to complete elective procedures and manage ortho trauma at the same time. Most hospitals can now handle a major 2nd wave and be ok. The thing I keep hearing from physicians and executives that while they agree things should opened slowing to spread the 2nd wave there will be a 2nd wave and 100,000,000-150,000,000+ are going to end up getting covid over time. Many healthcare providers I've worked with across the nation don't really understand why the administration isn't telling people that. Right now it's like every day people watch the news are are surprised more people are getting it.
I was at stony book in long island and the today show popped on each day and that Hodie Kotb lady or whatever acts shocked every day when cases go up. We were sitting in an office area and the two doctors I was with were asking "why is everyone so f*^&ing stupid 1/3 of america is going to get this".
None of these are really political statements and recently a lot of my time has been in NY and WA so overwhelmingly liberal but the general vibe I get is doctors wondering why the general public doesn't understand how many people are going to end up getting this.
I find these types of discussions enjoyable (well, maybe interesting is a better word)...not so much the political stuff.
Thanks for your post. My daughter works in the ER as a paramedic in triage, and says similar things. I'd add another blindness of the media (and it's almost unforgivable IMO because they should be helping get the correct information out) on this that also supports your point: Testing has gone up, depending on the state, 100%, 200% even 300% in some instances versus six weeks ago. That guarantees an increase in positive cases, but they literally never once, that I've seen, mention that fact. It's only "we've seen an increase in cases in these states" and no context whatsoever.
Except that case numbers are dropping in many states that have dramatically increased testing.
Yes, but both are true
So here's an anecdote - in NYS we can't play softball outside until 7/5 at earliest. Fields are shuttered, no practice no games. I've been a pretty vocal proponent of allowing small gourps of 10-25 to be outside with SDing for reasons I'm tired of explaining - but it's the right thing to do.
SO anyway, a different team posts photos on FB of 3-4 girls practicing while SDing at a local field. Township Rec Dept shuts down access to the field and people are going apeshit in the comments about "you could infect another family" and we're never getting out of this if people are going to be selffish like these people using the field."
It's bullshit, IMO. We're in phase 1 of 4 in NYS and it's a min of 2 weeks between. Thing is, there is NO effective difference b/t SIP and phase 1 - like some construction. Retail can open in Ph2 for carryout only, recreation in phase 4. Summer camps are closed all summer. Public parks are not allowing any gatherings. Little leagues cancelled. I'm all for opening slowly and carefully but you have to give people their lives back. Allow small groups outside, masks and SDing if having extended contact with people (esp indoors). Hospitals can handle this to a much greater extent than in March. Not that we should expect Hospitals to "just deal with" 150% traditional capacity. Ban concerts and large gatherings; promote Masks, SDing as much as possible. Hygiene.
This kind of phase system is just extending the SIP for another month.
Unless there is a vaccine within the next few months, at least half of our population will catch the virus. There is literally nothing we can do about it. The social distancing and masks have helped to slow the infection rate down so that we can ensure that our medical system is ready to address a significant second wave. I am of the belief that if you are young (less than 60 years old) and in relatively good health, we need to sensibly get back to normal. If you are predisposed to have a truly serious consequence of catching the virus, quarantine yourself and allow the government and others to help ensure that you stay healthy until a vaccine is ready (and yes, I am 100% convinced that we will find a vaccine relatively soon!).
It's not just a matter of finding a vaccine (there are dozens currently under trial around the world), it's sufficiently testing the vaccine to ensure that it's safe for general use. That takes time.
I know this is difficult for people to wrap their minds around, but the goal should NOT be to prevent any chance that anyone dies ever.
Exactly right. Moreover, Covid-19 is just the topic du jour. Meanwhile, the death rate in men from cardiovascular disease actually increased from 2011 to 2019. It now kills 650,000 people in the U.S. each year, but people are going to keep eating their cheeseburgers and lasagna, washed down with a pail of soda (or "pop," if you will) anyway. People come to terms with the risks, and move on. I suspect that the same will be happening (and probably soon) with Covid-19.
"but people are going to keep eating their cheeseburgers and lasagna... People come to terms with the risks, and move on."
If I sit inside a crowded restaurant for an hour and the guy at the table right next to me eats a gigantic cheeseburger with onion rings and fries, and washes it down with four Diet Cokes, do I catch his cardiovascular disease while he eats?
No, but you get the pleasure of judging and commenting on someone.
Of course not, and I thought about qualifier as I was making my comment. But it still applies - different people are going to come to different degrees of acceptable risk. If you don't want to sit next to someone in a crowded restaurant because you don't want to take the chance you might be infected with an infectious disease, that's up to you. Other people will draw different conclusions.
I don't eat cheeseburgers, lasagna, or drink Cokes because cardiovascular disease is something I *do* have, and I'm not going to risk increasing my odds of death from it. Likewise, I probably wouldn't sit inside a restaurant right now, but would consider it if I'm sitting outside on a nice summer afternoon.
It really is extremely hard to predict the exact set of interventions that will prevent the virus from overwhelming the healthcare system.
Pandemics grow exponentially.
Also, I'd caution you from assuming that people who disagree with you don't understand the issues.
I haven't stopped working or traveling since CV19 started and most of the time I'm in hospitals...flying home and heading straight to the basement and doing the best I can to quarantine away from my wife and child. It sucks. There are philosophical discussions like that going on all over the country, however, it's more pleasant and practical in the setting of doctors and healthcare executives than with our marble mouth politicians. Below is the reality that doctors from evergreen hospital in WA to stonybrook in long island have said from their mouth to my ears...
100,000,000+ people will get this. That's just reality. Embrace it and expect it...our hospitals can now handle it. Take the emotion out, this is cold hard reality. Most believe the administration should be informing people.
To your question...what do we say? Nothing except that it sucks. The reality is college coaches, players etc will get it. All of these coaches and players should be given flexibility by their employer to adjust as needed. If you have a high risk coach maybe that coach really shouldn't be in the locker room or in close quarters as often with players. That's just one small adjustment. I mean if paterno is still coaching maybe he isn't doing any interacting at all with the team unless it is outdoors.
At the end of the day it's still just basic economics. Americans want to see sports so sports will exist. If every season ticket holder cancels all their tickets, all alumni stop giving, and we all in unison don't tune in to any sporting event I promise that sports will go away. That's probably a long shot so people are going to come back and there IS going to be risk. There are not any grand speeches to shout from the rooftops.
100,000,000+ people will get this. That's just reality.
Or we get a vaccine. Either way, the disease will continue progressing until 70+% of the population has been exposed in some way, shape, or form.
What I find interesting is that, assuming the number of confirmed cases is only 10% of total infections, and that rate is constant (more or less) then it will take more than 3 years to reach 70% in the U.S. absent a vaccine. If, on the other hand, testing has expanded to the point where we are now confirming most cases, then it will take more than a decade to reach 70%.
The qualifier is important because, if it turns out that the assumption antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 are reactive to IgG and IgM immunoglobulins caused by other coronaviruses (and there is a recent research study still awaiting peer review suggesting that's possible) then we aren't even close to 5% of the population having been infected so far. The implications of that are almost impossible to overstate (for both good and bad reasons).
"A lot of them are in the age range where death itself is basically a 25% chance."
I'm far less sanguine than many here about the prospects—and likely consequences—of trying to have sporting events in the fall with crowds of any size in attendance. Even so, your number of 25% is complete bullshit that's unsupported by any data of the death rate in the US.
I don't mind your POV at all, but I do mind your stat in support, which is a fantasy.
I'm sorry.
Just ignore him, and he will go away. Replies are what he wants, and people just continue to give it to him.
Taiwan’s pro baseball league started this season with no spectators. They increased that from 0 to 1000 at the start of May. More recently, they again raised the limit to 2000. This sort of gradual approach makes a lot of sense to me. There are other things they are doing such as taking temperatures and disinfecting hands upon entry. It should be noted that they have much fewer cases per capita, but are proceeding with extreme caution based on lessons learned from the last pandemic they suffered from.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/05/15/2003736429
"Fewer cases per capita" is doing A LOT of work here. Taiwan has 19 cases per million and that's basically not rising at all. The US is at 5,346. Only 7 people have died in the entire country. Yes, it's a small country, but it'd be the 3rd most populous state.
I did write “much fewer.” It’s been a long week and I didn’t feel like doing math.
CTBC Brothers is my team. Their maize and blue uniforms are just so classy. There’s something about that color combination that is so appealing.
Sure, but people keep talking about the model of places like Korea and Taiwan playing sports without talking about the model of how they're containing the virus in the first place.
Agreed, the initial responses of Korea and Taiwan were so different from our own that it’s very difficult to use them as a model for what we should be doing now. Our genie is out of the bottle.
That’s the kicker. We can’t compare our current/upcoming situation to how other countries are handling it because we haven’t handled it the same way other countries have up to this point.
Just the basic cultural differences between Taiwan/Korea and the US are a staggering and significant difference between approaches.
Both of those cultures place value on their culture and community as a whole, above the individual. The culture in the US on individual freedoms is great - unless you are attempting to get people to universally accept limitations on what they want to do for their own individual purposes.
I drove by Martin Speedway last weekend and it was wall to wall RVs, trailers and people as they were having races last weekend....didnt see a mask on anyone as I drove past (somewhat limited view). It is those actions that will create challenges for everyone if it continues the spread.
N95 masks stop 95% of particles >= 0.3 microns. COVID-19 particles are 0.1 microns. Surgical/cloth masks stop particles ranging from 1 to 20 microns.
The rationale for wearing masks is to limit the spread from infected people to the healthy.
Your analysis only addresses inbound leg and not the outbound.
Wearing masks is effective as seen in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Enforce wearing them in public for three months or so and we would largely put this behind us.
Covid-19 hitches rides on much larger particles, like droplets of water.
It is a product that I sell...so thanks for the clarification...didnt already realize it. /s
There is another massive challenge in that getting N95s in any quantity is not happening for the next several months at a minimum.
And Korea just shut down a bunch of schools because of an outbreak. It's why all this talk about controlling the virus is so difficult.
Korea (population 51 million) is reporting 58 cases today. I'm not sure if we should consider that an outbreak or whether it justifies shutting down their schools.
Except every "successful" country has different treatment--Japan is doing very little testing at all, and little lockdown, with (so far) success
What are you talking about? My wife is Japanese and is now living in a small town in Okayama prefecture and was been on lock down for almost two months -- it's only recently loosened. The difference is they are smarter there and have been wearing masks religiously from the get-go.
There were hordes of Chinese tourists visiting Japan prior to CV - the hotels were brimming with them.
Japan has 126M+ people living in a habitable area equal to 20% the size of California. It is also a very aged society
We met in Kona during the first ten days of March and she was supposed to have flown back to Japan for a few weeks before coming to A2 on 3/28 for our daughter's graduation from UM and an extended visit. When we left Kona the fear was she wouldn't be able to come as CV was an Asian issue. By the end of the month, CV was a much bigger problem in the US than Japan and Delta cancelled her flight.
Japan does an excellent job of contact tracing.
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Haha underrated comment right here.
I also thought he said 25%.
I mean whats the point? I can only imagine scalpers licking their chops at this. All or nothing in my mind.
Not to mention this will be a logistical nightmare for whomever is in charge of the restrictions at the venues.
Do vendors count as part of that 25%?!...
If they cant reach 25% do they cancel the game? Asking for a friend from Ypsilanti.
Considering the state in question, is it okay to say, "OK, cool! Hook em?"
Jerry Jones will have a decision to make regarding filling AT&T Stadium to 25%: 20,000 fans, or his buddy Chris Christie?
but if he opens the roof, is it then considered an outdoor venue?