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|6 weeks 4 days ago||Thank you! You'll always be||
Thank you! You'll always be remembered for your TREMENDOUS blocks and those sweet throwback screens!
|16 weeks 6 days ago||News like this demands||
News like this demands muppets!
|23 weeks 3 days ago||It seems like you'd see a||
It seems like you'd see a bump (over the team average at least) this whenever your worst rebounder shoots, assuming that getting your own rebounds (a la McGary) is rare.
|23 weeks 3 days ago||Couldn't these teams also||
Couldn't these teams also just be the ones for which your method is the least accurate - for whatever reason? You're essentially saying that teams that won more than you expected got "lucky", but what if your model is just plain wrong for some teams?
|27 weeks 2 days ago||31 - 17 Michigan||
31 - 17 Michigan
|27 weeks 5 days ago||Thanks for all your work BISB||
Thanks for all your work BISB - especially in the (ever chaotic) liveblog!
|28 weeks 2 days ago||25-15 Michigan||
|29 weeks 2 days ago||This is obviously better than||
This is obviously better than the straight numbers, but the problem with this approach is that different teams schedules can have very different levels of difficulty. For example, if team A plays a very difficult schedule, they're not going to change those strong teams offensive output as much as team B, who plays nobody but cupcakes.
|29 weeks 2 days ago||Mich 9 Minn 3||
|30 weeks 2 days ago||45-30 M wins||
45-30 M wins
|31 weeks 2 days ago||20 - 12 M||
180 yards rushing.
State moves the ball but can't get in the endzone. Turnovers keep Michigan's point total down.
|31 weeks 6 days ago||Exactly, forward progress was||
Exactly, forward progress was clearly stopped, end of story.
|1 year 10 weeks ago||I actually used pagerank a||
I actually used pagerank a few years ago to pick my bracket. It did well, especially in the first round or so, but only ended up getting 3rd in my bracket pool.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||You can't draw conclusions||
You can't draw conclusions from data with such low R2. The R2 is telling you that the percentage of the variation you're accounting for with this variable is 2-3%. So of all the wild outcomes that can occur on the basketball court, the 3pt attempts can explain less than 3% of the result.
Don't get mislead by the fact that the conclusions line up in a way that you can rationalize - this data isn't conclusive at all.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||Its been fun to watch Ace's||
Its been fun to watch Ace's writing style improve so much over the last few months. The only problem now is that he sounds just like Brian. Given another year and he's going to be among the best sportswriters in the sports blogosphere.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||I just read about it on the||
I just read about it on the internet.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||Exactly. Reductio ad||
Exactly. Reductio ad absurdum: QBs have higher PAN than offensive guards, so we should stop recruiting so many linemen. Clearly this is wrong.
There is a tradeoff between defending the run and defending the pass. Teams that sell out to stop one open themselves up to the other. I think its reasonable to say that one reason Russel Wilson's numbers look so good is precisely because Wisconsin's running game was so dominant.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||For a "meta stat" post, this||
For a "meta stat" post, this is very light on data. Instead of debating the merits of EV vs SR, why not just show some data on which one is more predictive of wins?
I'm looking forward to the case study.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||I must be a super football||
I must be a super football nerd, but when I read the bit about the inside zone minutia my first thought was: "I hope Brian turns that into a post".
|1 year 18 weeks ago||The play-by-play breakdown||
The play-by-play breakdown adds depth that isn't available from summary statistics but I think everyone understands that this is a busy recriuting season, and you're looking for a break after football. Maybe you could focus on ufr-ing "interesting" games (like this one), probably games where something either went really well or horribly wrong, on either side of the ball.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||This is really great - stick||
This is really great - stick with it!
|1 year 27 weeks ago||No discussion of 3rd and long?||
I was expecting some praise for the defense on the 3rd and long plays. At one point during the game I found myself saying "I love watching this defense in 3rd and long".
|1 year 27 weeks ago||Smart football has a pretty||
Smart football has a pretty good list (though not all are strictly football related):
"The Inner Game of Tennis" is a classic with lessons that extend beyond tennis.
|1 year 27 weeks ago||He's a baller. The coaching||
He's a baller. The coaching helps.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||I've can't shake the bad||
I've can't shake the bad feeling I have about this game. Homefield is huge (see Ohio vs Wiscy) and they're going to be out for blood after an embarassing loss. . .
|1 year 35 weeks ago||Happy Birthday Denard!!! On||
Happy Birthday Denard!!!
On my 21st I purchased and drank a six-pack of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. It was literally at 12:01 when I bought it, and the cashier did a double-take when she saw my id.
Good god, I'm such a dork.
|1 year 43 weeks ago||talent / experience||
With the previous coaches we saw a tendency to play an upperclassman over a less experienced play with more innate talent. I remember a quote about the coaches preferring to know where a player's deficiencies were, and scheming around those as opposed to being surprised (Example: Moundros starting over Demens). How will the new coaches weigh experience vs raw talent - i.e. what do the young guys need to do to get on the field?
|2 years 1 week ago||Yeah, that makes a lot of||
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Football Outsiders actually breaks down defensive performance into passing and rushing, but I think the responsibilities are too intertwined to split the team's talent / experience into pass and rush.
One thing I might do is to look at the standard deviation of talent on the field - that might get at your point in a round-about way.
|2 years 1 week ago||Yeah, you're absolutly right,||
Yeah, you're absolutly right, I shouldn't have worded that statement to imply causation.
|2 years 9 weeks ago||That is a shame. I'll always||
That is a shame. I'll always remember that (game saving?) tackle on Leshoure in the Illinois game.