Stats comparison between Mich and MSU

Submitted by Duval Wolverine on

Through 7 games so far this season Michigan as a team has passed for 1581 yds with 14 TDs and only 2 ints; while MSU as a team has passed for 1645 yds wiht 12 TDs and 8 ints.  With a number of blowouts this season, Mich has taken its foot of the gas in the second half of games and is only 64 yds behind MSU with 2 more passing TDs and 6 less ints.  

In terms of rushing, Michigan as rushed for 1800 yds and 28 TDS, while MSU has rushed for 1087 yds and 8 TDS.

Michigan is only 200 yds away from passing its rushing mark from last year with 5 games to go!

Brhino

October 25th, 2016 at 10:22 AM ^

There is no statistical, factual, or otherwise logic-based reason to suspect MSU has any chance of winning on Saturday.  That's why, if it happens, I'm going to burn the world.  Just... all of it. 

reshp1

October 25th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^

This cuts both ways. Hoke had plenty of talent in most position groups. Hoke was terrible at getting the most out of his teams week in and week out. But, Ohio was always circled on the calender and, sure enough, Michigan consistently out performed in that game relative to the rest of the season. 

Harbaugh's every week is championship week means we are more or less the same team week in and week out.

Now, on the State side, they definitely have this game highlighted as make or break for their season, so yes, I can see them outperforming their statistical profile to date. But with the fancy stats having us up by the margin that's just too wide for feelingsball stuff like motivation to cover.

Plus, State's got the same staff as last year, so it's not a matter of underperforming due to coaching like it was with us. Issues of just not having the talent are much harder to paper over for one, all-in game.

dragonchild

October 25th, 2016 at 12:51 PM ^

An upset is invariably a combination of only so many factors:

  1. The underdog is underrated
  2. The favorite is overrated
  3. The underdog outplays expectations
  4. The favorite plays like crap
  5. Luck favors the underdog

MSU isn't a snakebit team; they're every bit as bad as their record.  Conservatively, Michigan is a ranked team, having beaten Wisconsin and Colorado and literally everyone else they've played so far.  And while MSU had huge, HUGE luck last season, and may get more of it this Saturday, it's unlikely Michigan arrives in East Lansing overconfident.  The emotional situation just doesn't have the trappings of an upset.  It's not like Michigan's going "we got this y'all" and will spend the night partying and show up hung over.  If anything, they're champing at the bit to make up for 2015 and return things to their natural order.  They're repping like they're the underdog.

MSU only has control over #3.  That won't be enough.

Gentleman Squirrels

October 25th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^

We couldn't have done that. Our defense couldn't stop them and Gardner was already playing injured. There was no way he would hold out for much longer. I get what you mean about trying in overtime. I was there at that endzone and pretty much cried because I thought we'd pull off that upset. It was heartbreaking but probably still the right decision.

What was infuriating was that they played a perfect 2 point conversion at the BWW bowl that would have worked. Ugh Borges




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TheRonimal

October 25th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

I 100% agreed with that call to go for it. They weren't going to survive overtime. So according to you, they should've passed up the opportunity to win it on a play that they only needed a few yards on, and instead go to overtime where they'd need to score from 25 yards out and stop OSU on offense? Seems like they made the right call. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Gardner was injured and pretty much had nothing left in the tank for OT. 

AA Forever

October 25th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

and a team like Illinois, for example, is that Dantonio has instilled in State a winning culture and a winning attitude, even when their talent level is not so great. Even though they're on a losing streak, their roster is full of guys who are used to winning and who expect to win. You can bet that the Illinois players went into our game pretty much expecting the result they got. State will not go in expecting to get whipped. Just the opposite. That's not trivial in a game like this.

Ali G Bomaye

October 25th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

Well, Stanford ran 37 times for 111 yards per game (3.0 avg) in his first year there, and 41 times for 200 yards per game (4.9 avg) in his second year there. And the 49ers ran 31 times for 128 yards per game (4.1 avg) in his first year there, and 31 times for 156 yards per game (5.1 avg) in his second year there. Last year we ran 38 times for 158 yards per game (4.2 avg), and this year we're running 47 times for 257 yards per game (5.5 avg). So there might be something to that.

father fisch

October 25th, 2016 at 10:36 AM ^

Exactly.  Last year just prior to The Horror, the guy behind me said "well, we won!"  I said to him that we still had to get the punt off and then we were good.  Grr, I still cringe at that!

The Kahki Jesus has it right: play every game as if it were a championship game because it is.  Work hard, respect your opponent, don't take yourself too seriously, and then go and win it!  And then you can enjoy it for 24 hours.  :-)

MGoblu8

October 25th, 2016 at 10:57 AM ^

Exactly! One of my buckeye friends texted me right before the play, "big win for you guys!" I replied "I'll celebrate when it's over." Of course, well, you know. Funny thing is, this same guy texted me during Galarraga's perfect game that wasn't, the MSU game, and a game where the Lions lost on a Hail Mary. He's the master of the jinx, and I don't communicate with him after a certain point in games.

michfan23

October 25th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

You may very well be right, but I'm worried about every game Michigan plays in until the decision is final. I know I'm a fan and I don't have to be like this, but I'm always nervous in rivalry games. I mean, I was worried against Rutgers for about 5 minutes. Thank goodness this one is at noon.




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MGoGrendel

October 25th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

Sparty just doesn't have the horses to keep up with us.  Even if we turn the ball over 3 times, we have the D to hold them and they don't have the D to stop us.

Plus, I don't think they have the heart to compete this year.  They will come out all fired up in the first quarter, try their "four quarters of personal fouls", but they won't stand up to Harbaugh's "win with cruelty" approach.

Hab

October 25th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^

The better comparison is 2013 where Toussaint had 20 yards and Gardner -46.  This is the kind of D line that is coming to MSU this weekend. 

No first downs for the Spartans this week.  No positive yards.  Win with cruelty.

Sparty is Rutgers bad.

ska4punkkid

October 25th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

Quit acting like sissies! I can't believe you all are scared and nervous, even a little. We are going to DESTROY them! There is nothing they can do against our defense.  Our whole team is pissed from last year and we will be all over them from the beginning. No mercy

Jeff09

October 25th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^

Their bile and spittle and anger can only fuel them so much. Even if you assume that's worth a whopping 14 point swing, S&P has us winning by 35 (iirc). Even add in a fluke (say, pick six or kick return for a touchdown) and we 'only' win by 14. This MSU team is one of the worst in recent memory and this Michigan team is one of the best. My irrational side worries but just looking at the facts there's no realistic way they can take this game from us.

Here's some more advanced stats context: MSU is 2 spots behind Eastern in S&P, 2 spots ahead of Central, and 4 spots ahead of Illinois. They are a whopping 10 spots ahead of Hawaii. They are a full 21 (!) spots behind UCF. Which is all to say they'd be projected to have competitive games against teams we've blown out and would be clear dogs against UCF. This MSU team does not belong on the same field as Michigan; the only real question is how crisp we execute and how much Jimmy decides to run up the score.

Speice56

October 25th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^

Sharty lost there teeth when narduzi left e.l.
Having that kind of coach leave has shown exactly how good states coach dantonio really is
From the top down sharty is in deep shit
They may never recover in e.l. and dantiono may end up leaving sooner then later