Snowflake: an optimistic theory of the AD's strategy
WARNING ⚠️⚠️⚠️ SNOWFLAKE POST
***
Pretend inferiority and encourage arrogance
-Sun Tzu
Do not trust a hope, it has forsaken these lands
-Eomer
I know that we have been conditioned to think that, until proven otherwise, the athletic department is doing the very worst thing possible to improve things. However, I believe that there is a chance that what we are seeing here is a master chess move by Warde.
Think about it: let's say that Harbaugh has already told Warde he intends to resign and move on after the season. That means that Warde needs to be working behind the scenes to find another coach. By telling the media that they won't be discussing a contract until after the season, that gives him a distinct advantage in pursuing, say, a Matt Campbell or a Luke Fickell. He can do it under the radar, without suspicion from other ADs, or flight tracking bloggers.
While leaks are all over the media that Texas is out there going after a new coach like Urban Meyer, Michigan appears to be sitting in a holding position doing nothing. And the media is not constantly asking about Harbaugh's future.
I know we have been hurt in the past by arrogant incompetence from athletic directors, sipping daiquiris on their yacht while out of cell range, or designing killer Facebook ad campaigns and Coca-Cola partnerships to build a Brand with a capital "B". But there is reason to hope.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:40 AM ^
Awesome if true, but ...
"He can do it under the radar ..."
That doesn't seem realistic these days.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:15 AM ^
"I believe that there is a chance that what we are seeing here is a master chess move by Warde."
Also awesome if true, but a happy outcome is more likely due to a "Forrest Gump" effect than a "Queen's Gambit" one.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
Queen's Gambit. Great show - highly recommend!
December 9th, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
'Tis the season for snowflakes.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
I agree w OP. The alternative is beyond stupid and hamstringing Michigan like what Dave Brandon did in 2011 w Rich Rod.
Letting Harbaugh go with his own volition while simultaneously saving cash w his buyout and conducting the coaching search in the background is the best way to treat a fellow alum and not scare away other coaches who are still in season working. The recruiting class will take a hit, which is true in any type of coaching carousel year.
6 assistants have their contracts expiring next month. It makes no sense to keep Harbaugh and just not tell everyone. There is zero upside to do doing that.
Hopefully I just didn’t talk myself into some Hanlon/Occam razor type of situation and the most likely scenario is Michigan’s AD just being incompetent.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
I tend to agree with this. If we don't see a series of "Coach X turns down Michigan" reports (during a 'non-search' period), that will be good. Hopefully, we suddenly get a "Coach X to be next Michigan coach" report moments after Harbaugh goes to the NFL.
The likely outcome is our assistant coaches all of sudden start changing their Twitter profiles away from Maize and Blue references. Then, the cat's out of the bag.
December 9th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Watch out for Kirk Herbstreit getting in the way .
December 9th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
Exactly my thought. He made up a source to torpedo hiring Les Miles and he made up stuff to try to pressure Michigan into playing the game. He will do whatever he can to torpedo Michigan. As a reporter he is a liar and a fraud.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:25 AM ^
Some people seem to be living in a fantasy world where Warde can fire Harbaugh and announce the new coach immediately. Simultaneously making a coaching change and giving recruits certainty. This cannot happen. Even if the new coach is lined up via back channels, he is almost certainly still in season and can't be officially signed/ announced for a while.
The other way to give recruits certainty is to extend Harbaugh now.
Warde only botched this if he knows he wants Harbaugh back. Even if Harbaugh gets extended later it could Warde's primary plan to get replacement coach X didn't work out.
Seems to me like firing Harbaugh now or leaving it it limbo should not make much of a difference for a recruit. If anything, firing Hatbaugh now makes it certain the recruits that Harbaugh lined up won't be playing for Harbaugh.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
^^ this guy gets it.
December 9th, 2020 at 4:25 PM ^
I get it but I kinda disagree this year...covid changed that. No ones flying, all zoom meetings and those can be scheduled on a whim while eveyone is at home...with very little knowing.
I am a loaner on this, but I think Warde has done a good job here and Im confident he is making the right moves now. He is not dumb and I trust him
December 9th, 2020 at 7:42 AM ^
Hope is usually built on some semblance of proof. I have yet to see any proof of Warde doing hope-inducing things.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
Honestly, what has Warde done other than hire Juwan Howard that has you feeling like this. He hired the hockey coach, kept Bakich and probably some other coaches in some sports no one knows about, but i think he has done a pretty good job. I think the OP has a legitimate point, although I believe Harbaugh will be back.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:38 AM ^
I’m kinda torn on Warde.
For the reasons you state, he has done well, most notably getting the #1 best possible replacement for Beilein. He also seems to have given Juwan whatever tools he needs for success, as Juwan is killing it on the recruiting trail.
On the other hand, and perhaps this is driven by media and feelings-ball type stuff, he just doesn’t seem to be on top of the football program. It’s not just that we aren’t winning; he doesn’t seem to be there passionately fighting for our program to succeed, or demanding that his head coach do such simple things as modernize the recruiting approach (whatever that means). As I write this, I can’t really point to a single thing that he hasn’t done well (and losing football games is on the coach, not the AD). Just seems like he isn’t a “strong” AD (which, again, feelings-ball type stuff).
December 9th, 2020 at 8:53 AM ^
Do other ADs do this? Other than some comments here and there, I don't hear much about other schools ADs. Seems to me their job is to make sure the right person is running the football program and then let that person run it. I'm not sure many coaches would want to come to Michigan to have an Athletic Director tell them how to recruit.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
I've heard of AD's actually sitting in film reviews and trying to push ideas like who should start. Could you even imagine?
December 9th, 2020 at 9:33 AM ^
Hmm, yes. That happened here, in fact.
There was a rumor circulating that Kevin Sumlin turned down an interview for this very reason.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
I think you may want to tune your sarcasm meter
December 9th, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^
I think your perception of him is tied to the football program and not his actual job. What should he do? He's given his coaches every chance to succeed. He's not going to know more about the day-to-day of modern recruiting than a HC will. I don't need an AD out there trying to be the face of the university like Dave Brandon tried to do. I don't need him visiting the football program on a daily basis. He hires and fires the coaches, tries to get them the resources they feel they need to be successful, address any structural or personnel issues within the AD, talks with the donors and sells them on the directions of our sports and the department. I can't tell that he's failed in any of these. If Harbaugh waits to sign his extension til after signing day, that will be his first major failing IMO. But I'm hoping that he's just giving Jim an opportunity to save face. We wouldn't be able to hire a coach til after the 19th anyways.
December 9th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Would like to know what the issues are that Harbaugh has with the administration that keeps him from being more successful. Have heard this in a couple of posts.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:08 AM ^
Maybe he is / does, but it's behind closed doors where any respectable AD would do it. It seems people want our AD to be out in public bashing the program or coach. Do you know what that would do to potential coaches? Who wants to be a part of a program where the AD publically questions and criticizes his coaches?
December 9th, 2020 at 9:58 AM ^
"demanding that his head coach do such simple things"
This sounds a lot like a Dave Brandon type AD. No thanks.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:21 AM ^
Warde openly pursued Cooley which drew my ire, who didn't seem qualified... but it could have been a smokescreen.... so far Warde, to me, has done a great job... I don't see a single thing one could point at that is questionable...
December 9th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^
You're torn on him for the same reasons we're all unsure of him - his start in 2016 wasn't all that good, PR wise.
- He gave ND everything they wanted to get them back on the schedule, at a disadvantage to us
- He did nothing to back up Harbaugh with the camps, the tweets, or - especially - after the OSU game, when the league fined Harbaugh and Warde also chastised him.
- He admonished Harbaugh for defensive tweets to other coaches and (mostly) Gene Smith.
- He refused to even try to get MSU back on a 'normal' schedule
First impressions die a hard death. But otherwise, his management of the AD, the budget, staff (coach decisions), and facilities upgrades have been pretty darn good. And largely in the background, where they should be.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:55 AM ^
BPONE. It's all-consuming. I often forget about Howard (though at first is was an underwhelming hire) and I don't follow hockey closely enough though I know he probably hired the right coach. It's our flagship sport that casting shadows over the entire AD that makes me feel this way about Warde. I know he didn't hire Harbaugh but he's responsible for everything since.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:51 AM ^
Lmao Juwan Howard was only underwhelming if you’re older than 50.
Anyone could see the potential w Howard given his resume, “cool” factor and reputation.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
Underwhelming may have been the wrong choice of words. I was an impressionable 10-year old when the Fab 5 played. I love all of them and loved that era. But it was a risky hire, because he had zero HC experience and zero recruiting experience. Sure hindsight is 20/20. We're getting in on guys we never would have with JB. Short sample group, but the coaching doesn't seem to have dropped off from JB's level either. In fact, it may have gotten better. That remains to be seen as Juwan gets more years under his belt. But to say we knew we would get 5 stars and wins with him when he was hired would have been a guessing game. JB left the AD in a terrible spot with his timing, but now I'm glad we got Juwan and I think most fans are as well.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:57 AM ^
Juwan Howard an underwhelming hire? Michigan is now a player for 5-star recruits. That hasn't been true since last century.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
He also hired Turner Gill at Buffalo and Kevin Ollie at UConn after Jim Calhoun retired. Yes, Ollie was fired due to NCAA infractions and had a down season or two, but he did win an NCAA title. Warde's track record of hires is outstanding.
Yes, he played at Michigan and is a "Michigan man", but this is a guy who spent two decades in other ADs so he's not incestously inbred in the bad parts of the Michigan AD culture. Having been at a place like UConn and seeing what it takes to have such successful basketball programs, I think you can't just assume he'll be like the incompetent Michigan ADs of the past.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
IMO, Biggest mark against Warde is hiring Rhonda Faehn as women's gymnastics coach and then firing her less than a week later because of her connection to USA Gymnastics & the Nassar scandal. I don't know whether or not Faehn's accounting of events is true or not (that she notified the President of USAG of the complaints about Nassar immediately but was told to stay silent so as not to jeopardize the investigation) but that's a hiring where you have to have your ducks in a row. Either the AD did its due diligence before it hired Faehn (in which case Faehn was unfairly railroaded) or it didn't (which is very bad).
December 9th, 2020 at 7:44 AM ^
Sorry EYB. Don't try to lure me into your maze of circular logic.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:48 AM ^
My bet is it's not a current college coach. We're going after another pro football coach. You can't announce anything until pro games are over.
I'm looking at you, Mike Tomlin.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:53 AM ^
Why on earth would Tomlin leave Pittsburgh where he likely has career job security and hasn't coached or recruited at the college level in 20 years?
December 9th, 2020 at 8:06 AM ^
For a job that just destroyed another top NFL coach’s reputation?
December 9th, 2020 at 8:11 AM ^
You 2 seriously think RGard wasn't being sarcastic?
December 9th, 2020 at 8:34 AM ^
simian sarcasm isn't for everyone. and rgard might scare some guys if really was 'looking at you', you know what i mean? .
December 9th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
As a small, flightless bird, yes. I am scared of that creature.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
Now that’s the look of a coach I could play for!
December 9th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
well you better not get caught loafing out there, because that dude would give new meaning to the phrase 'getting your backside chewed'.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^
I was adding a qualifier to his sarcastic question, specifically because I think there are many delusional fans out there who think Michigan can bring in whomever we want without realistically thinking about how that went the last few times.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
For the most part, sarcastic here, because I doubt it would ever happen. That said...
He has a Super Bowl win. Never had a losing season. Another Super Bowl would cement his legacy. They could win it this year.
The Steelers will lose their franchise QB in the next year or two. You can't really compete for championships without a franchise QB in the NFL. There's no guarantee they'll find one immediately. Could be some lean years ahead for the Steeler faithful. Does Tomlin want to deal with that?
Tomlin is a William & Mary graduate so he understands the concept of the student athlete. That was one thing loved about Harbaugh when he called out Michigan years ago for having forced him into a less difficult major. I'm not in the camp that wants us to be a football power at all costs. I'd prefer a football coach who wants the players to succeed in the classroom as well as on the field.
Maybe (and I have no facts to back this up beyond a sense of basic human decency) Tomlin didn't/doesn't like having a sexual predator for his QB? Did Rooney tell Tomlin they had to keep the QB? I grew up a Steelers fan (hard not to being from Pittsburgh) and I do believe in redemption, but Roethlisberger should have sought his redemption in Oakland or some place far away from the Burgh.
Beyond all that, why do folks here think we can only choose from the ranks of college coaches?
December 9th, 2020 at 9:09 AM ^
No shit. He's arguably the second best coach in pro football.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
Lol. It’s beyond foolish to think Mike Tomlin is anywhere near a possibility. Where is this nonsense coming from?
December 9th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
Come on RGard, surely you can't be serious. Matt Patricia's games are already over, no need for Warde to wait before announcing him.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:50 AM ^
Personally, I have not been conditioned to think the worst thing possible from the athletic department.
Sure, performance/results since the Carr era on football hiring have been horrific. And, obviously, the department centers on football. But the department has had successes.
Let's go back in the time machine: RR turns down AL, and MI lands him a year later. MI fans were not exactly calling for the AD's head. (I had assumed all along that Lloyd would pass the keys to Urban at midfield after Lloyd's final bowl game. Boy was I wrong....)
Hoke was a stretch, to say the least. Granted.
JH? Who, if anyone (Other than our enemies and NFL owners), was disappointed?
Outside of Hoke and his boss, who would have expected better? Easy to see now who the better choices were. But then?
I chalk it up to shit happens, life in unpredictable, and sometimes, even smart people doing their best results in things being FUBR.
As far as the epitome of college FB, does anyone really believe a Big Ten team can get there? OSU is still considered a mid level SEC program. ND? This will probably be their best year we will see.
I miss the Lloyd Carr days. At least we had some fun.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:04 AM ^
I went to Pasadena twice to watch the boys suit up in the Rose Bowl.....feelsbadman
December 9th, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^
I agree with a lot of this but to say OSU is a mid level SEC program is just incorrect. OSU would be right up there with Alabama if they played in the SEC.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:51 AM ^
Or, the most obvious answer is....
The AD has a limited budget and Harbaugh says he needs a new staff. Warde gives him extra money to recruit new assistant coaches but has to fund part of this from JH's base which Harbaugh agrees to. Warde puts extra performance incentives in the contract for Harbaugh to claw that money back if he wins.
If Harbaugh wins it stands to reason this will have a positive effect on cash flow.
My 2 cents anyway...I don't think WM is as Machiavellian as many of you think he is.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:09 AM ^
If this has already been agreed to, why not announce it? If it hasn’t, why aren’t you negotiating today? If you are negotiating today, why announce that you won’t even start negotiating until after signing day?
December 9th, 2020 at 8:11 AM ^
Only reason I can think of is to give Harbaugh time to let the staff know they are done and salvage the recruits the staff was working on ?
That's all I got!