A Rowboat Approaches...

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 27th, 2022 at 6:03 PM

Why, that sneaky farging bastage!

The Rower's Lunch by Pierre-Auguste Renoir

At least she's paying attention...

Some conventional and fancy stats about the Ole Boat-Rower's current squad have me thinking, "I'm glad they've got MSU and PSU as their crossovers!"

Total Offense: #3
Total Defense: #1

S&P+ Overall: #7

FEI Offense: #6
FEI Defense: #8
FEI Overall: #6

FPI Offensive Efficiency: #6
FPI Defensive Efficiency: #1
FPI Overall Efficiency: #2

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minnesota golden gophers
S%26P+; Bill Connelly; Football Outsiders; Advanced Stats; FPI

Blue@LSU

September 27th, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^

They've played NM State, W. Illinois, Colorado, and MSU so far. I think Minny might have a good team, and probably favored to win the B1G West, but it seems that some of these ratings are a bit inflated.

OP, any chance you'd bring back the occasional B1G Expectations? I enjoyed those.

Joined: 11/04/2016

MGoPoints: 80329

NittanyFan

September 27th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^

If one looks at FEI (https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-fei/): it grades Minnesota's schedule thus far as comparable to Michigan's.  

A good team (defined by FEI as a team 1 standard deviation above average) would have 3.7 wins (on average) against Michigan's schedule to date.  A good team would have 3.68 wins against Minnesota's schedule to date.

That's comparable.

FEI also is still factoring in pre-season ratings: so Minnesota being number 5 (OP said 6 but my link has 5) at this point, that's meaningful and indicative of just how well they have played against their admittedly less-than-elite schedule.  Michigan is #4 in FEI, FWIW --- considering pre-season rankings this would imply Minnesota has been even more dominant than U-M on an opponent-adjusted basis.

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Net net: I think Minnesota is legit, and the advanced metrics provide support for that.  They aren't going to be the typical West opponent in the B1G title game (should they get there), especially given their defense.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43166

Blue@LSU

September 27th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^

I'm not gonna disagree about Michigan's schedule, but then again I didn't say anything to boost Michigan either. Just saying that Minnesota's early season stats may be a bit inflated (just as I'm pretty sure Michigan's are as well).

Michigan is #4 in FEI, FWIW --- considering pre-season rankings this would imply Minnesota has been even more dominant than U-M on an opponent-adjusted basis.

I just browsed through the play-by-play tracks for Minnesota's games on ESPN. It looks like Fleck had a tendency to keep Morgan in the game well into the 3rd quarter after they already they had a very comfortable lead. And Ibraham already has 89 carries on the year when none of their games have been even close. It seems like Fleck is a bit more willing to keep his starters in longer against creampuff opponents, which might explain why they are even more dominant than M against weak opponents?

But again, like I said, I think Minny is a good team this year. I'm just suspect of these early season stats. 

Joined: 11/04/2016

MGoPoints: 80329

TrueBlue2003

September 27th, 2022 at 9:07 PM ^

Their raw stats are "inflated" / better than they would be if they had played a more difficult schedule.  But to Nittany's point, they still hold up when adjusting for SoS, similar to Michigan.  Meaning that they're beating the bad teams on their schedule so thoroughly, they're still likely a top 10ish team.

FWIW, FPI has them as the 14th best team.  That takes into account recruiting, past seasons, etc.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

1VaBlue1

September 28th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^

They get Purdue this weekend, which will be a test for them similar to how UMD was for us - a comfortable win with some moments of thought against your first opponent with a pulse.  (No - MSU does not count as having a pulse.)  We'll see how well UMinn handles Purdue's offense, which can be explosive when it gets hot.  The question is, what causes Purdue's offense to get hot?  I mean, it's so random that nobody knows...

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127325

Harlans Haze

September 28th, 2022 at 3:15 PM ^

Yes, any caveats placed on UM's schedule should be applied to Minnesota's (those non-conf foes are 1-12 combined). Plus, they have one of the most experienced rosters (if not the most), as I think was covered on the board before, as well as 6-year man Morgan at QB. Doesn't mean they won't have success the rest of the year, but they were built for the success that they've experienced so far. That experience should provide them with a good shot at winning at psu. Without osu on their schedule, they year could conceivably break right for the Flecktones. Obviously, they would have to avoid their yearly gag-job. 

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