Roundup of various Championship Game Predictions

Submitted by oriental andrew on January 8th, 2024 at 2:53 PM

After reading/watching various random previews and predictions, thought I'd summarize the predictions. 

One thing I noted, though, is that Michigan played one of their sloppiest games of the season against Alabama and barely won. Washington played one of their cleanest offensive games of the season against Texas and barely won. This was oft-mentioned in the previews. 

The video previews and predictions I watched: 

Written previews and predictions:

  • CBS Sports writers: 8 of their 13 writers pick Washington to win. Michigan avg MOV = 7 points. Washington avg MOV = 4.6. Higher confidence in the Michigan picks than the UW picks. 
  • Fox Sports writers: 3 of 4 picked Washington to win. 
  • College Football News: Michigan 38-Washington 20 (I knew I always liked that Pete Fiutak)
  • ESPN writers/personalities: 32 of 48 pick Washington. How credible are these guys? Some jackass from the SEC Network predicted that Washington would win 63-14. Get a brain morans. Oh did I forget to hyperlink this? My bad...
  • USA Today writers: 4 of 6 pick Michigan to win. 
  • The Athletic writers: 11 of 20 pick Michigan to win. 

Why does it make me feel good that all the "writers" are picking Washington? B/c they're paid to be contrarian and provocative. And b/c they also all picked Alabama to win. 

What, you expected me to work today?

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oriental andrew

January 8th, 2024 at 4:05 PM ^

Was listening to Jim Rome today and Stewart Mandel was on. Stewart picked Michigan to win.

The writers for the Athletic didn't all explicitly make a pick, but I put Mandel in the Washington camp after reading this:

Stewart Mandel: I’m done picking against Penix. He is the Joe Burrow of the 2023 season. Texas was able to pressure QBs all season but couldn’t get to him. Michigan does have an even better pass rush, as it showed against Alabama, but the Huskies have allowed sacks on just 2 percent of their pass attempts. The Wolverines will be able to run the ball, but so did Texas. And I’m not sure McCarthy can keep up if it becomes a shootout.

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Blau

January 8th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^

I mean, they’re not entirely wrong. Wash’s offensive output from their semifinal game is driving a lot of love nationally and rightfully so to a degree. The question to ask is if this can be replicated against Michigan’s defense? We’d have to see some highly uncharacteristic collapses but we will not have been challenged like this since Maryland who did have some success pushing the ball down the field. It’s ok to acknowledge great teams and great players and Washington has earned the right to be picked to win in some circles.

That said, I don’t see lightning striking twice and if Penix only gets limited chances with the ball in his hands to succeed, as most of us predict, he’s going to have to make every one count.

If Penix drops dimes and his receivers are constantly open, tip the cap. But this defense is no joke and Minter should have new wrinkles to limit the damage.

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carolina blue

January 8th, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^

I liken it a bit to Alabama in that the pundits were so hyper focused on the Georgia game that it was as if the previous games didn’t happen, don’t count, and were somehow not indicative of who they were. Turns out, Bama was more who they were the previous few games. 
similarly here, they’re focused on what Washington did against Texas, but that’s not been their norm. Maybe they will repeat that performance and, if so, then good on them. 
 

if both teams return to their respective mean performances, Michigan wins by 2 touchdowns. 

Joined: 02/12/2014

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Blau

January 8th, 2024 at 4:25 PM ^

I’d also say predictions usually don’t, or can’t, take into account 2nd half adjustments which is something Michigan has been great with all year long. Hypothetically Wash could have a lead going into halftime and I’m not sure I would be so worried. If the offense sustains drives, scores TDs (not FGs), and doesn’t turn the ball over, I don’t think Wash has another trick up their sleeve besides the jump-ball pass. Tighten up in the red zone and use the boundary to your advantage, and make them kick FGs.

Unless the intangible stuff like turnovers, penalties, and sheer luck are taking over this game, I think a manageable 7-10 point lead going into the 4th Q is not far fetched. 

Joined: 01/23/2014

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Brodie

January 8th, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^

People picking Washington are hyperfocused on baby-brained "QB uber alles" analysis, about to see what happens when one team decides defense is optional

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EGD

January 8th, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^

Although Washington "barely" won, in fairness they took control of the game in the fourth quarter and would have punted to Texas with only about 18 seconds on the clock, had it not been for an unexpected injury timeout called when their running back went down. But for that happening, it would have been unlikely for Texas to have gotten anywhere near the red zone on their final possession. And then of course Washington stopped them anyway.

I don't think any of this contradicts the larger point that Washington was never blowing Texas out, as Michigan might conceivably have done to Alabama without multiple special teams gaffes and dropped passes. But it's not as though Washington got lucky or won despite being outplayed.

Joined: 09/16/2009

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denardogasm

January 8th, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^

Looks to me in general like people who actually pay attention to college football as their primary job are all over Michigan, and people are are just here for the SPORTS! are enamored with the shiny QB because they think that's all that matters. These games are about breaking tendencies, and I don't even know that Washington is capable of doing that because they're so pass game dependent (across both offense and defense). Just hope our players aren't having as much trouble as I am not getting overconfident. The TCU attitude is the only way we lose.

Joined: 09/11/2011

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Durham Blue

January 8th, 2024 at 4:03 PM ^

Being a sports bettor, the over/under line is usually pretty damn close.  The over/under is currently at 56 points so if your score prediction total is 56 points then you are a little closer to guessing the actual final score.  That said, here is my prediction for the game tonight.

Michigan 31

Washington 25

Joined: 10/09/2008

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PopeLando

January 8th, 2024 at 4:32 PM ^

I hope you’re wrong: if we’re up by 6 points at the end of the 4th quarter and Washington has the ball, I’m definitely going to have a heart attack.

I’ll relax when we have a 9+ point lead, the scoreboard shows 00:00…and even then, I’ll wait 3 seconds to make sure there’s no flags

Joined: 08/01/2015

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MMBbones

January 8th, 2024 at 4:05 PM ^

Speaking of Roundup, I spent my formative years spraying Glyphosate at length on the family farm in Michigan. I should have non hodgkin's lymphoma, but so far, so good. 

Or perhaps I am seeking anything to distract me from the intolerable wait for this game....

Joined: 08/28/2008

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Perkis-Size Me

January 8th, 2024 at 4:07 PM ^

ESPN picking Washington on a two out of three basis? Sounds about right for the organization that took every possible opportunity to blow Sign-Gate up into something more than it was. 

Washington may very well win this game. The minute you think you've got it in the bag is the minute you get sent home with your tail tucked between your legs with a loss. But the fact that there are that many ESPN writers ready to crown Washington is....telling. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

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Booted Blue in PA

January 8th, 2024 at 4:15 PM ^

Michigan 30-20

 

I might be the one person that honestly doesn't think Jim is leaving.    In the last year he's made the comment several times that he's reached a point in his life that.... he doesn't care about the achievement for him, its for the players, their families, his family....  not him personally.   

I think that's why he's decided to be the standard barer for player compensation.  Michigan will offer him a chance to be on of the highest paid coaches in the NCAA (showing him the love he said he wanted).....  The media talk about "mutual interest" "several conversations" between him and SD or LV ..... I'm not buying.   I don't think he'd be talking to these teams while preparing for a National Championship, that would be a slap in the face to his team, I don't see him doing that.

 

maybe i'm naive.....  I take him for his word, I did last year and I do now.   

Finish the job!

Onward, GO BLUE

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LabattsBleu

January 8th, 2024 at 4:39 PM ^

i wonder if the same recency bias has affected these picks just like they did for the Bama/Michigan game.

Bama looked great versus Georgia - that that wasn't who Bama was consistently through the season. Same with Washington: they looked tremendous versus Texas. However, if they looked like that all year, they would not have had the marginal victories that they did and Penix would have ran away with the Heisman.

Washington is absolutely capable of beating Michigan, however, I don't think they will hang a 70% completion rate on this defense.

Michigan wins it by confusing Penix on coverages and limiting Washington's possession. 31-24 Michigan

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lilpenny1316

January 8th, 2024 at 4:51 PM ^

I think Washington has a real shot, but I feel like most of the people picking UW are going based on recency bias and not paying attention to the regular season.

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