The road ahead

I'm more nervous, if anything. As awesome as the running game was, I want to see some balance out of our offense.
 

Someone is eventually going to stop the run (likely Wisconsin) and I'd like to have a QB and WRs who have had extensive in-game reps. 

Being so single dimensional isn't good. 

I haven’t watched MSU at all. How does their DLine look? 
 

If I’m an opposing coach I load up the box and dare Michigan to beat me via the air. I’m not sure our WR corp is good enough to make other teams pay for that.

I just cannot see us in a close game with MSU after last year’s debacle.  That will be a comfortable win.

Looks a lot like a Harbaugh coached Michigan team to me....

Nothing has changed. I still think we’re 8-4, and I am not quite ready to pass judgement until Wisconsin now. The lack of willingness to throw downfield is a bit concerning

If we can't find a downfield passing game, 9-3 is the ceiling, not the average. We'll drop another 1-2 games if we can't throw for more than 4 yards or threaten deep.  Wish we would have hired Joe Morehead. I can't tell if this is Harball constraining Gattis, or Gattis lacking the creativity to optimize decent athletes on the outside. But we've seen quite a few seasons like this under Harbaugh, where we look way too physically powerful against weak competition, but then slam our heads into a wall against the real teams. Funny, I remember when we first hired Harbaugh, a 49ers fan got on this board and said to get ready for this exact same exasperation as a fan. 

Looks pretty accurate to me. I was in the 7-5, 8-4 range all of preseason but the team looks better than expected.

I think we beat Wisconsin and lose to PSU though.

Hot takes.  I'll tell you after next game.

I think NIU is more of a trap game than NW. Michigan is coming off a big night game and NIU has best Georgia Tech and almost made a big comeback last week against Wyoming. Sure Michigan can roll over them, but if they’re looking ahead or still basking from Washington game, NIU can scare them

Sorry, can't see past the next opponent and don't care.  BEAT THE OTHER HUSKIES.

What is the obsession with doing these?

I think it's pretty amazing to post that we'll be tied 17-17 at HT in a game played in 2 and a half months. You must never lose any sports bets with that ability to forecast.

Before the year it seemed very difficult to evaluate where the team is given the abridged season last year and the major changes since then. I was thinking anything between 5-7 and 9-3 seems possible. The "worst case scenario" thinking usually included a loss to Washington.

Now we've won that, and regardless of whether Washington is considerably worse than anticipated or not, that's a W in the bag that we couldn't pencil in before the season. So my thinking is that we'll probably be toward the better end of the possible range - and 8-4 seems like a decent possibility though naturally there's still a range.

I'll have to see us do more in the air offensively and the D stop an offense that's more explosive than either WMU or UW to adjust expectations upward further.

As I've said all OT season - I don't really care what the record looks like, so long as I see a better team.  One that looks organized, competent, and will FIGHT.  So far, I see those traits in this team.  They look good, they're organized, they're hitting hard and playing harder, they don't seem to give up on plays, and they're having fun.  The coaching staff also seems to be hitting on all cylinders, so far.

I will say that the offense needs to get better in the pass game (no passing game will kill them), and that the defense needs to improve its pass coverage (was UW's 2nd half pass game actually good, or was it going against backups for the most part?).  But if going back to the 2015, 2016, and even 2017 (if a QB existed) offenses is what's best for the team, then I'm on-board.  Those were competent teams that actually competed at the highest level.

This isn’t me trying to be a homer or anything (especially since I watch every Wisconsin game too; family obligation) but they absolutely can beat Wisconsin. This is a “Down” Wisconsin year. They can get to Penn State undefeated if they keep playing last night I.e. shoot to kill. Find opponents deficiencies and run it into the ground. Defensively PSU is better that Wisconsin but by that point in the season the variations on schematic themes will be opening up. This team can press for double digit wins and most importantly set itself up for deep runs this year and next.  

We'll be between 7-5 and 9-3, just like every other year Jim's here. 

DNR. Just negged. OP is a well known fountain of bullshit.

9-3 or 8-4, about as predicted pre-season. 
 

is this progress?
 

Probably a correct assumption.

Assuming key players of ours are healthy.

Big Ten teams are not going to let Corum go A gap 150 yards.

They will also have better O-lines and will throw crossing routes.

I see it this way pretty much with the caveat that I think we lose one we’re favored in and win one that we’re not. Also I don’t think Penn State is that good.

8 win floor 9 wins seems right.  I do like how this team is set up to grow and build over the season.  The schedule helps out a lot.

I think the more interesting (and important) question is, does this staff have a coherent plan to make sure we are improving every day.

On offense:

- While frustrated with the play calling so far, I could see a rationale if it is about building to something better (and I don’t mean hiding your best plays for future opponents)

- In the Western game, while we were still run heavy, we were more balanced before losing Bell.   In a game where we lost Bell, the coaching staff had two choices.   The first was: commit even more heavily to giving the team practice at jamming the ball down the opponent’s throats, or focusing on getting the other wide receivers practice, we went with the very Harbaugh approach.    The key question is, was that choice made because it was what we needed to beat Washington, or was it what we need to be a truly good team?

- In the Washington game, it appears that the coaching staff believed that the only way Washington was going to beat us was turning the ball over.    They were certainly proved right in believing that we could beat Washington with almost exclusively a run strategy.

- While Northern Illinois is almost certainly our easiest game of the season, our hopes of a better than 8-4, 9-3 type season rest heavily on whether we use an easy opponent to build confidence in our passing game.   If we rely heavily on the run, we are probably sunk.   If we decide we need to establish the run and build up a lead before opening up the passing game, we are probably sunk.  Next week is the time for Harbaugh to prove that he means it both when he says, “We are not gonna fall in love with”our performance and when he asks “what have you done to beat Ohio State today”.    This team has a long list of things to do to improve their chances of beating Ohio State.   Game plans the next two weeks that revolve around “establishing the run”, or “establishing our identity” as a team that can run, our not the response we need to either of those Harbaughisms. 

Rutgers is decent this year.  Same with Maryland.

Wisconsin and OSU can both can be beaten. PSU looks really good.  MSU is going to be a street fight.  

NW is dog shit this year.

This schedule is pretty grueling.  There are not too many easy wins and plenty of peril.

Michigan has as much or more talent than anyone other than OSU. 

I'll focus on NIU and keep an eye on Rutgers since they will round out September and the 4 game home stand. NIU is another good MAC opponent.

I want to see a better passing attack. Another 300 yd+ ground game wouldn't surprise nor disappoint me against NIU. However, adding 200 yds of passing would be very encouraging.

6 or 7 wins is still my estimate until I see we can throw against teams not in the MAC.

The first test to see if this JH team is different is to win a game you're not supposed to, ie probably going into Madison and winning. 

That's pretty reasonable logic.

Don't sleep on NIU or Rutgers.  I think they will be closer games than anticipated.  NIU can move the ball on offense.  And Rutgers under Schiano appears to be reborn.  Neither team has the talent that Michigan has so they both should be wins.  But I am not about to bet the house on Michigan ATS in either game.

I was ok with the ground and pound (especially when I heard that Washington’s LBs said “you won’t be able to run like that on us” During the week) especially with the chance to get more linemen game experience - which is good for building quality depth. Bo and Woody must have smiled from football Valhalla on those 20+ straight runs  

Or at least I was until I went back to look at when we did pass the ball. Cade missed WIDE open people, choosing instead to make the more difficult throw. They have me hives about what will happen when someone is able to stop our run game OR can put score us our defense.

Depends on whether or not we can get the passing game going. While losing Bell hurts, it’s not an insurmountable loss. On another board, an apt comparison was made between Cade and Jake Ruddock, who improved as the season went on.

Yeah I’m right with you. They win the games they should and lose the games they should lose (on paper, referring to psu/uw/osu) with the potential of dropping one they should win. 

This is quite literally lined up to prove if it’s “same old same old” or not. 

I think I can look positively on this season if they pull of 10-2. That means you beat one of those three above. That means the team will have to “play above” to do that. They will have to improve and show mental fortitude throughout a long, tough season. Can they do that? Dunno…