Revisiting Preseason Predictions & Definition of Successful Season

That's what my daddy said, so it must be true.

I have a sneaky feeling that the OSU game this year is where we swing the rivalry back into our direction.  People forget we were one possession away from winning probably half the games since 2005.  All we need is a good, healthy quarterback and it's looking like we're going to have that until at least DMac leaves.

I was confident in UM beating MSU at home but it’s hard to win with 5 turnovers. Maybe they win with Speight but O’korn over Peters was the right call after his performance against Purdue. If it hadn’t for the MSU loss I think this team would be right on schedule with my 9-3 preseason prediction. Hopefully they can pull one out vs Wisconsin or better yet Ohio State.

Just beat OSU. I want to see Peters progress within the offense as well and begin taking command, but seriously, just beat OSU. 

That's probably the only thing that can make up for the disgusting travesty that was this year's MSU game. 

Basically have to beat OSU to make up for MSU. It would be nice to win a tough road game in Madison, but winning out is asking a lot. I don't care about the bowl game.

Honestly had we not lost to MSU everyone on this board or at least most people would be perfectly fine with the season so far. The offense has been very inconsistent but Boone would b freaking out had they not lost to MSU. If we beat OSU I hope everyone will stop shitting their pants. Until then the season has been disappointing

I had losses to PSU, WI and OSU.  I also thought we would lose one of the following: UF, IU, MSU or MN. I now think we  have a chance of beating WI on the road and play a close game against OSU. Maryland on the road could be a tough game. So, it possible we could win 9 or 10 games.

IMO finishing the regular season 8-4 is totally acceptable. Anything greater than that would be a surprising pleasant development at this point. Getting 2 more victories could be a challenge with a RS Freshman QB at the offensive helm. (I started the year expecting 9-3 for the regular season, directed by a healthy 2016 pre-Iowa version of Speight.)

Beat Wisky because I'm driving 9 hours to see it in person. But mostly, beat Ohio State.

Going into this year, almost everyone thought that this season was a rebuilding one and that next year would be THE YEAR. So, a successful season means that one could still realistically believe in next year. So far, the results of this season don’t support that belief at all. But, the offense is improving, and good showings against Wisconsin and OSU could go a long way. That is why I frankly don’t give a damn about our record.

In my book. Thought Michigan was a 8-4, 9-3 team. Thought at worst we’d lose FLA, PSU, Wisc, OSU. But I honestly thought we’d be 7-1 at this point, with losses still coming against Wisc and OSU. I didn’t see MSU coming within 10 this year, so that was a major letdown. I guess at this point, continue to improve, and definitely don’t lose to Minny and MD. 9-4 with a bowl win I’d accept. Next years schedule is a bitch, but I still think we have a great season next year, probably taking off in 2019.

Thought defense would be issue and offense would be good with Speight. Still thought a 11-2 season with losses to PSU and OSU. Win of course in Bowl. Still can be 11-2. Just have to do it hard way now. :-)

Yes. I thought 9-3 going in to the year. The only surprise was MSU’s resurgence (relative to last year). I think the game in Wisconsin is a coin flip. 10-3 would be fine.

I don't judge bowl game additions to the record at this point until I know the opponent/situation. 

 

The way I see it (this is in line with what I thought before the season):

• 10-2: Great/successful season given the youth
• 9-3: Solid season, meets expectations without exceeding them. 
• 8-4: Disappointing, but not bad season. If we wind up here losing to UW/OSU, the reason it'll be disappointing is that we should not have lost to MSU at home. 
• 7-5: Bad season/failure. If we lose to both OSU/Wisconsin, AND to one of Maryland/Minnesota, this season will be a failure in my book. 

Before the season I was expecting 9-3 with a victory over Florida, a loss to Penn State, and a victory over one of OSU/Wisconsin. The MSU loss is a pretty big letdown. At this point, 9-3 is possible, but I think 8-4 is more likely, with that close MSU loss being the difference between meeting expectations and underachieving. 

Beating Ohio is a successful season. I don't care about the rest this go around. Wouldn't mind watching an Auburn match up in the Outback bowl though...

Unless we beat Ohio State. This season has been a failure. Losing to a mediocre MSU team does not make a successful season.

 

There will be deluded Michigan fans talking about how we were slated for 8-4 but nobody predicted we would lose to a 3-9 Michigan state that got blown out by Northwestern, needed to come back 2 scores against Indiana, and lost to Northwestern.

 

Beating Rutgers and Maryland means nothing to me.

 

we should have a mid-week snowflakes thread.

An overall record 10-2 is a solid standard deviation above most preseason estimates of Michigan's record for 2017, which IMHO qualifies as being a homer. Here's the rundown of preseason predicted conference / overall records from FPI, S&P+ and the Power Rank:

FPI:      6-3 / 8-4

S&P+:  6-3 / 9-3

PR:       6-3 / 8-4

The only significant difference in terms of the game-by-game breakdowns is essentially a swap of Michigan State for Florida, and of course, all of these presumed that UM had its returning QB for more than 3 games.

and I see no reason to deviate

My hope every season is 10 wins, including wins vs OSU, MSU and ND*.

This season I expected 9-3, splitting the big four (FLA/PSU/WIS/OSU) and losing one we shouldn't. We are right on track for that. Yes it sucks that the one we shouldn't was to MSU, but it is clear that Dantonio renewed is contract with the devil to get all the luck in that game.

Win the minnows and split the Wisconsin/OSU games and it will be what I expected. I'd like the OSU to at least get to one of my goals.

 

*When we play them

 

Continuing to build confidence along the offensive line and QB position are what I'm looking for. Solid showings against higher quality teams will build confidence for the team going into next season.

Minnesota, Maryland, and Wisconsin are all beatable teams. With Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin all slated for bowls ahead of Michigan at the moment, that should result in a manageable bowl opponent. A bowl victory could be crucial for momentum into the off season.

I said 9-3 or 10-2 at the start of the season, leaning toward 9-3. That's still doable.

7-5 or 8-4 decent chance for a bowl win...really depends on the OL and Peters hold up to a ferocious D from W and OSU

Going into the season I predicted a 10-0 start, but losses to Wisc and OSU for a 10-2 finish.

I obviously underestimated Penn State.  I expected MSU to do much better than 3-9, but I still thought M would blow the doors off them.

I thought Speight would be better than last season, he was worse.  I still thought he'd eventually come around if he'd stayed healthy, but that didn't happen.  I also expected more out of our WRs--especially Kekoa Crawford.  And while I knew the RT position would be a weakness at the outset of the season, I thought it would improve quickly.  While the defense overall has played better than I expected, it hasn't been enough to offset the areas in which the offense was worse than I anticipated.

Now I am expecting an 8-4 record, with a good chance at 9 wins either by stealing one from Wisc or OSU or by winning a bowl game.  I'd be okay with 9-4.  I'd be ecstatic with 10-3.  An 8-5 finish would be kind of a disappointment, but I feel like the program is in good hands so I'd remain optimistic heading into the off-season.

I thought 8-4 or 9-3. I didn't expect the MSU loss and I thought they lose 3 of the difficult games (UF, PSU, Wisc, and OSU). I also thought they may lose one we don't expect because of the young team thing. I did expect the o-line, WRs, and Speight to be better and didn't anticipate the injuries to Speight and Black, but I'd say the QB and o-line and projecting upwards, so all is still as expected.

Maybe?  Sorta?  

I mean, I just wanted to enjoy a season of college football.  I have thus far.  So it's a win in my book.