Revisiting Preseason Predictions & Definition of Successful Season

Nobody thinking clearly expected MSU loss.  It made sense that we were not going to win at both PSU and WI, so now we need to beat WI. If we can then beat OSU, I would call it a great season., especially with a qb now in the fold.

Not putting down Speight, but he was never taking us to any promised land.

I said 8-4. I still believe it's gonna be 8-4. If nothing changes they've met my expectations. Does that mean successful?? Not sure but it's not disappointing...

Loss is still disappointing; they are not good. Just very frustrating. I'd like to see wins vs Minnesota, Maryland, and a win vs Wisconsin. Be competitive against osu and win a bowl game.

as long as everyone has fun its a success.

If the regular season finishes 9-3, I'm thrilled. The strange psychology here is that 9-3 feels like relief but 8-4 feels far more severe than a 1-loss difference.

Man do I wish the MSU game were scheduled anytime after...now, rather than back then, in a derecho with a flailing back-up QB who is irrelevant to our future.

People predicting that or better were fooling themselves. We were 10-2 last year with more talent and experience and an easier schedule. And Harbaugh always loses a game he absolutely shouldn't. We're looking at 8-4, and a third or fourth tier bowl that we will hopefully win. So maybe 9-4, which is only one game worse than last year. Not horrible, but well below where we want to be.

I posted my preseason presiction of 8-4. I said the new receiving corps, new D, and unknowns on the OL did not feel like a 1- or 2-loss team. Obv the QB issues, borne by injury, are contributing but srsly would Speight have changed the outcome v PSU?

So, "I told you so."

If MSU beats PSU. If OSU loses to Iowa. OSU beats MSU. Michigan wins out. Will be 4 teams with 2 losses. Who gets the node to Indy?

(including whatever bowl game we have) I will consider it a successful season.

If and it's a big if, Peters gives us a legit passing game, I still think we can win out. I don't think Wisconsin is everything they're cracked out to be. OSU is a game that they can win, it'll be difficult. I hope Peters can get comfortable these next 2 games before we finish out the season.

8-4 is the most likely scenario for Michigan given where we are and the likelihood of winning at Wiscy and at home against the Slime of Humanity.  Sorry, but those mountains are just too high to climb for this team with a new QB and questionable ability to score in the red zone against top competition.  I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

We knew the O line was going to be completely reshuffled. We knew Speight was nothing more than a game manager. Everybody else is YOUNG.

From my perspective, getting this team in winnable situations with plenty of playing time for the young ones makes it a successful season.

Losing to MSU was probably the most damaging to the season. We should have won that game and the team knows it. Period.

PSU and OSU were going to be the high achievements of this year if we could get it done. But probably not.

Wisky was the wild card I thought maybe we could win if we had enough momentum going into the game. But I no longer think this is realistic.

If we win Minny, Mary and our bowl game then I consider it a successful season. 9-4 is not appetizing. But shit, this IS a young team.


If, a big fucking if! If we beat OSU, I’m going streaking through that quad and into the gymnasium! Now that I can hang my hat on this year!

i was an 8-4/9-3 guy like many.  but when we beat florida on the road (neutral, i know) and our D was outstanding we all thought 'that's it!  straight to the moon!'   so the subsequent games have been mostly let downs even in victory.  very few of us gave much chance at all of losing to sparty and that tweaked the equation too. 

...we just take it one week at a time, and then reflect on the season after the OSU game?

The thing is, we're currently counting on our 3rd string QB because our second string QB was so ineffective (we were tied with Rutgers 7-7 midway through the second quarter and had just gone three-and-out). So nothing is certain and anything is possible, good or bad.

that fan expectations have any impact on how the team performs?

Do chronically loser programs lose because their fans don't have high enough expectations?

Did Michigan suffer losing seasons under RR and Hoke because fans didn't have high enough expectations?

Preseason I thought we'd go 9-3, with 8-4 more likely than 10-2. I liked that we had a ton of talent coming in, but I worried about the right side of the OL, the young secondary and our lack of depth on the DL (which meant that the starters would need to play many more snaps than last year's starters). I also worried that youth would lead to dumb penalties, fumbles and other DERPs--costing us at least one otherwise winnable game. On the other hand, I felt like the defense as a whole would be good and that the offense would improve as the season went along. I expected us to lose to Florida (because of their DL and our inexperience) and OSU, and go 1/2 against PSU and Wisconsin.

This wasn't far off the mark. I underestimated our secondary and overestimated our WRs and what we'd get out of the QB position. The OL problems have been very close to what I imagined, and the lack of depth on the DL did hurt us in the second half against PSU. The game we lost when we should not have, MSU, was lost in part because of our 5 (5!) turnovers, and the dumb penalties we keep racking up have kept opponents in games we should have run away with. 

At this point, I'd say we are likely to go 8-4 with 9-3 more likely than 7-5. It breaks down like this:

• Minnesota: 0.80 chance of winning
• Maryland: 0.80 chance of winning
• Wisconsin: 0.40 chance of winning
• OSU: 0.25 chance of winning

That's an estimate of 2.25 games won among the remaining games, or 8.25 on the season. 

In terms of what would make the season feel successful to me, well, since I never expected us to CCG, my bar is probably set lower than it is for a lot of people. If we win 9 games with this young roster, and given all the problems we've had, I'd call that a success. We have only won 9+ games in 3/9 seasons since Carr retired (2011, 2015, 2016). In fact we have as many losing season over that stretch (2008, 2009, 2014). So winning 9 games in an obvious rebuilding year, to me, signals that we've stabilized the program at a similar level to where Carr had it. It would also signal major improvement over the course of the season, which would bode well for 2018.

If we win 8, which I think is more likely, then it's a less enthusiastic version of the same. I'd still think we are poised for major improvement in 2018, but there would be more lingering questions.   

I would say 10-3 would be succsssful. If nothing else, Harbaugh has developed solid consistency via transfers, freshmen and sophomores, and different coaching assistants. Michigan has longed for 10-3 seasons for a decade. We all expect Harbaugh to take us to the promised land eventually, but we all knew this was not going to be the year. To go 10-3 with predominantly fresh/soph in the most difficult division in all of the P5 conferences would be truly impressive.

If Peters keeps playing and he and the offense show enough signs of improvement to give us some hope for above average QB play next year, I will consider the season a success. If we end the season wondering if Speight might be the starter next year, that will be disappointing. 

There's success, in that I think Harbaugh has brought an identity to the team, recruits well and gives Michigan an opportunity for greatness. In that sense, I'd consider 9-4 or 10-3 successful. But it's just not the same without a win over OSU. By my own feelings about Michigan and close to 50 years as a fan, a successful season ends with a W and an unsuccessful season ends with an L (and then you have your bowl exhibition game).