NotADuck

November 4th, 2019 at 9:33 AM ^

Minnesota sneaks in with some top 10 votes as well.  Indiana got some votes in the top 25.  OSU with multiple votes to be number 1 overall.  The Big Ten is getting a lot of love.

NeverPunt

November 4th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^

Indiana has no wins over teams with a record over .500 - they have no business getting top 25 votes IMO.  Indiana's record in order of opponent record (in parentheses) :

  • L: 51-10 vs OSU (8-0)
  • L: 40-31 vs MSU (4-4)
  • W: 34-24 vs Ball State (4-4)
  • W: 38-31 vs Nebraska (4-5)
  • W 34-28 vs Maryland (3-6)
  • W: 35-0 vs Rutgers (2-7)
  • W: 38-3 vs UConn (2-7)
  • W: 34-3 vs Northwestern (1-7)
  • W: 52-0 vs EIU  (0-9)

oriental andrew

November 4th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^

On the other hand, I don't care who you're playing. It's tough to limit your opponents to 6 total points in 4 games, even with a craptastic schedule. Of the top 10 in defensive efficiency (per ESPN), the best 4 game run of opponent scoring is 23 points allowed by Utah (13 vs WSU, 7 vs OR St, 3 vs ASU, 0 vs Cal). 

Indiana is doing what it's supposed to against the bad teams after starting out slow. They'll likely fall back to earth after their bye week and taking on psu and Michigan back-to-back, but it's still a dangerous team and they have to be feeling really good about how the season is going. 

MH20

November 4th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^

That isn't a chronological ordering of their schedule. It's ordered by opponent record from best to worst. Chronological ordering is as follows:

  • W: 34-24 vs Ball State (4-4) [neutral site]
  • W: 52-0 vs EIU  (0-9)
  • L: 51-10 vs OSU (8-0)
  • W: 38-3 vs UConn (2-7)
  • L: 40-31 at MSU (4-4)
  • W: 35-0 vs Rutgers (2-7)
  • W 34-28 at Maryland (3-6)
  • W: 38-31 at Nebraska (4-5)
  • W: 34-3 vs Northwestern (1-7)

EDIT: On second read of your post I'm pretty sure you knew that wasn't their schedule in order of game played. My bad.

Unicycle Firefly

November 4th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Big Ten is fake news this year. Not buying PSU as a top 5 team, and I think OSU's offense gets a major reality check against LSU, Bama, or Clemson. 

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part.

username03

November 4th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^

I can never tell who the response is meant to be to but if this is for me its based on the fact that anOSU's offense is very good and will cause problems for even the best defenses while they have yet to encounter an offense with a pulse. They may still succeed but I'll want to see something first. PSU will be a good test. 

Bodogblog

November 4th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^

Clifford is a better quarterback than Patterson.  Their defense is excellent - very talented and very tough.  They have a decent OL, good running backs, and a superstar WR in Hamler.  

Michigan's defense is a little better I think.  But yeah catch that ball in Happy Valley (Bell is awesome and not the reason they lost), and win in OT - a huge assumption in that environment, and Michigan would be Top 5.  

I think Michigan clubs Florida at a neutral site, beats Georgia or Auburn (would love to see either in a NY6 bowl), and plays PSU even.  Oregon and Utah not sure, but close, good games.  Thus ends the list of teams in the discussion for Top 5* (Baylor and Minny incomplete, but probably not Top 5 good).  So yeah, Michigan in that area isn't ridiculous. 

*Wisconsin probably beats Michigan at a neutral site, but at the moment no one thinks of them as Top 5. 

M-B Devil Dog

November 4th, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^

I've seen Auburn play this year and your assertion that we would beat them on a neutral site is no where near or close to reality. They have one of the top D lines in the country and would limit our running significantly, SIGNIFICANTLY, They also have some really really good DB's. While I think Bo Nix and Shea are at the same level, Auburn plays one of the quickest up tempo offenses I've seen in years and it is one that will wear a defense OUT. we aren't beating Auburn, sorry.

Bodogblog

November 4th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^

I will DISAGREE.  Because capitalizing letters in a debate makes one more CORRECT in a BRADY HOKE world.  I have also seen THEM play this yeAR. 

They were in a tight game with 3-6 Ole Miss, at home, just this weekend.  Michigan's game against Army was early, and they're a much better team now.  Auburn lost to a Florida team I think Michigan would crush.  Michigan played quite well against a PSU team who I think is a tier above, on the road at night in a white out.  Yeah I think Michigan wins.  Their D is good, but so is Michigan's, and their QB is a FRESHMAN.  Against Don Brown.  That and Michigan's WR would be the edge. 

Bodogblog

November 4th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^

Disagree with this.  I think OSU is as good as LSU, Alabama, Clemson.  PSU is in the next tier, with Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma.  A bunch of teams are at the third tier: Georgia, Florida, Michigan, ND, Auburn, Wisconsin.  Baylor and Minnesota get an incomplete. 

Difference between top two tiers and the third tier is one thing: quarterback.  No I don't buy Jake Fromm as elite.  Trade any of the QB's in tier 1 or 2 with a QB in tier 3 and they'd swap positions (and when Jack Coan played at an elite level, they would have been in tier 2).  Yep, including Clifford at PSU.  Turns out Franklin made the right call on that kid vs. Tommy Stevens. 

tspoon

November 4th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^

Interesting that there are two ND-affiliated voters.  (To be fair, there are a couple of other programs with two as well ... but none so prominent as ND.)

xtramelanin

November 4th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^

interesting and thank you for posting.  looking at our rankings, a lot of #14 at the top half, but lots of variation, almost all of it higher ranking for us, in the bottom half.  i note that the maryland writer has us at #9 - recency bias!  the ND guy has us at 12.  

UMmasotta

November 4th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^

Interesting that Wisconsin is voted as high as 11 and as low as 25. Unfortunately for UM, that loss isn't aging too well. UW could end up 8-4 by the end of the year. 

Bodogblog

November 4th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^

They have Iowa at home this week, if they lose they're out of the Top 25, but then can beat Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota to end up 9-3 and ranked in the teens.  

And if Iowa wins that game, they would have Minnesota at home and Illinois and Nebraska remaining.  They could easily finish 10-2 and ranked in the top 12 or so.  A very high quality win is better than an average quality loss (were Wisconsin to go 8-4 as you suggest).  And it's very possible Iowa ends up 10-2 and Wisconsin ends up 9-3.  

Conclusion: no worries 

Jon06

November 5th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^

I think it could help our ranking if UW loses again. Right now, a lot of voters are ranking us just under them. But if they keep looking worse over time, that might convince voters to put them way below where we could plausibly be. That game would still be an anchor on our ranking, but a different kind of anchor, since it wouldn't be setting a hard ceiling for where some voters would rank us anymore.

Of course, the only thing that really matters is winning out. If we do that, where UW gets ranked will be irrelevant as everybody will have us far above them.