Recruiting with the Heavyweights (300+ final class rankings on 24/7)

Submitted by Heptarch on

First time as OP.  I’d say “Be gentle”, but I know this board well enough by now to know that if you find this post worthwhile I won’t need the admonition and if you don’t… well… no amount of pleading will save me. 

Since 2002 only 14 teams have finished with a final class rating over 300, an average of one a year.  In 6 of those 14 years NO team cracked 300.  So historically, that’s a relatively high bar to clear and a good sign of recruiting at the highest level.  

I was spending some time this morning looking at how good our 2017 class might be when all is said and done.  If we get all of the kids we expect to get (Singleton, Anthony, Collins, Filiaga) and a handful of others we’re not sure about (Harris, Solomon, Tufele, Gay, Slaton), we’ll finish with a 24/7 composite class ranking over 300.  

Obviously Alabama and Ohio State are killing it this year and both are pretty much guaranteed to finish 300+ as well.

That got me to wondering how many times three teams have finished 300+ and the answer is… zero.  It’s never happened in the 24/7 composite era which extends back to 2002 (I'm ignoring 2000-2001 because the numbers don't seem comparable).

What’s also interesting is that there is a fourth team, Georgia, who could join that particular party this year as well.

Below is the projection I saw using the 24/7 class calculator based on recruits with heavy Crystal Ball leans to each given school:


OSU:  318.52 (adding Jeffrey Okudah, Darnay Holmes and Jaylen Harris)

Alabama:  313.64 (adding Labryan Ray, Jarez Parks, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs… losing Najee Harris)

Georgia:  301.43 (adding DeAngelo Gibbs, Nate McBride, Tray Bishop, Leonard Weaver)

Michigan:  300.43 (adding Harris, Solomon, Singleton, Filiaga, Collins, Anthony)



Michigan is also in the thick of it for Jay Tufele, Willie Gay and Tedarrell Slaton.  Adding any one of those would leapfrog us over Georgia.

Also of note… a lot has been made of OSU’s class this year.  If they finish according to the projection above, that will make for the fourth best class ever (behind 2010 Florida, 2014 Alabama and 2013 Alabama).  The Class Calculator doesn't give average player rating, but I suspect that's where OSU would be the top class in history.  Right now they're at 95.72 which is well above the previous high of 93 and change.

While I recognize that cracking 300 would take a lot of things falling our way, I think the fact that we have a realistic shot at it two years into Harbaugh's tenure speaks eloquently about how firmly the trajectory of the program has changed under his leadership and how bright the future is for our beloved Wolverines.

Go Blue!  

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NowTameInThe603

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^

This is a good question and one that I've been thinking about since Alabama started getting these mega classes. Before that you could say USC was getting mega classes but they were cheating and in California with a huge talent pool and no real competition(UCLA sucked and still sucks).

I never understood the appeal. Winning championships I get. Getting drafted I get. But if you are a crazy talent you are getting drafted either way. If you are on a super team do you develop over your college career? There have been plenty of Bama players who have flamed out in the NFL. Is that partially because the team overmatched every opponent that they themselves were never pushed?

I think its the "super team" mentality that has lead to these ratings. 5 stars going with 5 stars.

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Slippery Monkey

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

Very true, all your work is done during the week. Saturday is just a day to show off what you can do. Not a lot of development during the game, save for reviewing film for errors, or what you did right. Often times what you do in a game, good or bad, will go unnoticed by the coaches, but the eye in the sky doesn't lie.

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denardogasm

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^

Sounds like Slaton is pretty much out of the picture.  Kai Leon Herbert recently removed Michigan stuff from his twitter.  Those will affect the overall numbers.  I'm optimistic about the rest of the uncommitted guys though.  Should be an interesting finish.

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Real and Spectacular

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^

What I want to see moving forward is for us to rank among the top 3 or 4 based on player ranking. I think we get hung up on where the class finishes up overall. Next year we might only take 17 or 18 and therefore we probably won't finish top 10. That won't mean it's a bad class though. If our average player rating is say 92, that would be pretty awesome. Right now it is 90.40 which I believe is 8th best. I think consistently getting top 5 classes in terms of player rating is what we should hope for. What OSU is doing this year with a 95+ avg is absurd, but I don't think that will continue.

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Kevin13

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^

and your right this staff has really turned things around. Not only can this staff recruit they can coach these players up like no one else. They will get the most out of every player no matter the ranking. They can turn a 3* into a 5* production wise, which is an even bigger asset.

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Real and Spectacular

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^

One thing I will add is that even though it would be nice to have players with the same ratings as OSU, I wouldn't be particularly concerned by it. Look at some of Harbaughs lower rated recruits and see how they are already contributing. I think Harbaugh has a bit of Dantionio magic where he can find guys that he loves more than the recruiting services. Like how he and the staff had McDoom higher on their board than many guys who were ranked higher. The difference is Harbaugh can sprinkle in the truly elite guys where MSU simply can't get those guys.

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LGenius

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^

Agreed on this point - Hudson is another good example. I am a bit concerned about recruiting the trenches, though. Harbaugh and team are pulling unprecedented talent at the skilled positions, but we've had some big misses on Oline and Dline in the last couple cycles. We will not be an elite team until we consistently bring in elite classes in those two position groups, so I'm really hoping Solomon, Tufele, Filiaga, etc. round out this class. As others have said, those guys are more important than a headliner like Harris (take them all caveats, of course).

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HenneGivenSunday

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^

You've set the bar pretty high for your next post. Awesome job, and that's for putting this up. It'll be a great class regardless, but you're point is well made. Here's hoping we can get above 300!



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A2toGVSU

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^

I'd love to see a continuation where we see just how good each of those teams were 3-4 years after signing these highly rated classes. We have seen a strong correlation between top-5 classes and championships. Is there a stronger correlation between these elite (300+) classes? Great first post, OP. Informative and still left me wanting more.

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Heptarch

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^

I'm admittedly a layman when it comes to this stuff, but from everything I've read I would classify my list like so:

Almost certainly:  Singleton, Anthony, Collins

Probably:  Filiaga, Gay (if his ACT was up to snuff)

Lean:  Maybe Harris?

Coin Flip:  Probably Harris, Solomon

Still a chance:  Tufele, Slaton

 

Do I think we have better than even chances at 300+?  Nah.  At least not until we know for sure what Harris and Solomon's status is.

But if we get one, our chances are reasonable.  If we get both, we will have 300+.

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BoFan

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^

Darnay Holmes

No one has posted about this. Holmes was always rumored to like Harbaugh a lot. He has friends on our team. Recruit analysts thought he was still a lean to UCLA for family reasons. It always appeared to be a UCLA Vs Michigan battle with UCLAs bad season favoring Michigan. But suddenly OSU stepped in after a visit. How did that happen? That is just to much of a complete and sudden flip, since OSU wasn't in it, to not wonder what's behind it. OSU has stolen guys like Weber before from us but they were always tough decisions for the recruit. A complete about face is unusual. What could have been said on his trip. This was right at the same time the Harbaugh to LA rumor came out. Does anyone have any info on this other than the OSU party line. Maybe this should be an OP?

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

with the Adidas sponsorship of Proway training (Holmes family business). Thus the prominence of Nebraska (Adidas) with kids associated to this LA group.

This recruiting scenario is remarkably similar to many of the AAU basketball scenarios with shoe company sponsorships as a factor. It has some "complicated" relationships.

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ak47

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^

It wasn't ever a UCLA v Michigan battle to anyone but Michigan insiders.  He had always shown interest in OSU and got out for an OV to them while never taking one to Michigan.  I think we just got bad info and he always had more interest in OSU. It happens.

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Tecumseh

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

Darnay Holmes visited OSU as sophomore and then again as a junior. There was nothing sudden about OSU getting into the picture. It was the long process of building relationships. No OSU recruiting guy ever had OSU out for Holmes. They always had UCLA in the lead. And, IMO, they still are. But OSU was always in the picture. 

His OV was a knock-out AND Keyshawn Johnson is in his ear about going to OSU.

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ColeIsCorky

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^

If you listen to Sam Webb, he's pretty much told Michigan fans to let that one go. I believe OSU has the momentum right now.

I wouldn't say necessarily that Michigan is completely out of it, but I also think that they are looking at the ND commit Hicks(?) for a reason - that reason is Holmes most likely if not almost certainly is not coming to Michigan.

Never say never, but I wouldn't get your hopes up at all.

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willow

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^

may be expectations here and not there.  

There was a time under Tressel when OSU apparently had a credit course on Football 101 taught by Tressel and open only to football players. I'm fairly sure I was watching a UM/ND football game when the commentators mentioned it and then said something like, "Of course, you would never hear about these two institutions doing such a thing!"

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Heptarch

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:42 PM ^

Fair point.

I had considered that as well, but decommits (at least in this cycle) seem to be even more speculative and context-driven (if X commits, Y will decommit... maybe) than Crystal Balls.

But in the interest of seeing this through... what sort of methodology would you have me employ?  

We've heard a couple names tossed around for weeks, particularly as it pertained to their commitments being contingent on those of others.  We've heard about Dillon and Samuels potentially leaving if we get Harris.  And we've heard that Kai-Leon Herbert's commitment might not be ironclad.

To address the first, Dillon has already left.  So if Harris comes, there is no reason to believe that Samuels leaves.  He certainly hasn't said anything about not wanting any competition.

Herbert is a different beast, since his commitment doesn't seem to be contingent on anyone else's.  At least not based on what we've seen/heard from recruiting insiders.  So let's move forward with the idea that Herbert decommits, just as an intellectual exercise.

If Herbert decommits and we pull the same class I mentioned above (adding Harris, Solomon, Singleton, Anthony, Filiaga and Collins) we drop to 299.92.  Obviously adding ANY recruit at that point will bump us back over 300.

So... if we lose Herbert and add, say, Mekhi Becton (which I consider to be a very reasonable supposition) we go back over 300, landing at 300.07.

Are there any other possible decommits would you like to consider?

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BlowGoo

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^

Interesting post.

But remember, we're trying to assign meaning to a bunch of numbers that ultimately do a very spotty job of predicting ANYTHING at all.

So essentially, we're about all tied with OSU, Alabama, and Georgia. We won't really know anything until three or four years from now.

That said, clearly Harbaugh's crew is getting more talent, limited only by the ability of ANYONE to project out what high school talent means when it gets to the college level.

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Heptarch

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^

"So essentially, we're about all tied with OSU, Alabama, and Georgia. We won't really know anything until three or four years from now.

That said, clearly Harbaugh's crew is getting more talent"

 

I think this is really the takeaway for me.  It's accurate to say that we don't have any idea how the product on the field will be based on recruiting rankings.  What I was saying is that we are now recruiting at a level that, historically, is reserved for the best of the best.

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maize-blue

December 22nd, 2016 at 1:55 PM ^

As long as we can stay within a few recruiting positions of Abalama and OSU, I think we can keep up on the field. I think it will be a rare occasion that we will actually out recruit those schools. The first thing we have to do though is beat OSU.

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LKLIII

December 22nd, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^

Striking distance is key. A front page article or diary a few years ago said it's almost impossible time win a NC without routinely being in the top 5 in recruiting. So a good showing consistently is necessary for a NC, but it alone is not sufficient. Player development, avoiding toxic locker room culture, and good in game play calling/strategy are also required. Looks like Harbaugh is keeping us in the mix recruiting wise.



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jimt1023

December 22nd, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^

I don't follow recruiting too closely, but is this because the top 4 programs you listed are recruiting very well at the expense of the rest of the field or are there a larger number of highly rated recruits this year?

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Heptarch

December 22nd, 2016 at 4:09 PM ^

I'd have to look into it more in depth to know.  I was just looking at this year, which led me to some surface-level skimming of past years.

I can tell you that this year there is only one program who is likely to end within 20 points of 300 and that's LSU who look like they're primed to land somewhere in the mid 280's.  All the others, based on what I was seeing, are going to land 270 or below (though USC has a punchers chance at getting within spitting distance of 280 if they pick up a couple of recruits they're in on who don't have heavy leans elsewhere).

Obvious caveats about 'crootin' apply here, of course.  This is just based on heavy Crystal Ball leans for undedecided recruits added to the existing classes.

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jalenwestman

December 22nd, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^

Need to get chuck! Also, read that Wilson made his mind up to go Georgia two weeks before his official visit there. I believe Harbaugh had an in-house with during that 2 week span and couldn't flip him.

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