Reasons to be optimistic in 2014
With only a handful of bowl games left to finish off the 2013 college football season and so many fans feeling disappointed and panicking about the future of Michigan football. I figured I'd share some of the reasons why I'm optimistic about the 2014 season and beyond.
1. We'll have real competition at the QB position. For the first time since ... God knows when, We'll have alegit competiton at the QB spot. It's Devin spot to loose but we'll have 4 scoloarship QB's gunning for the starting job. 3 of the 4 have college game experience!
2. The Offensive line will play better as a whole. I heard all the doom and gloom about how can they possibly improve with losing two NFL caliber tackles. They are right in a way the tackles position will be downgraded next year. The major point is with so much pressure coming up the middle, we could have had Tony Boselli and Jonathon Ogden as tackles and not done much better. Point is there will be competition on the line as well. These guys want to win championships, they are hungry, young and talented. They'll push eachother this off season because nobody is guarenteed a starting job.
3. The running backs as a whole will improve. Green and Smith both played better later in the season even with the offensive line problem and when they played more pass protection looked ALOT better ( sorry fitz but you cant block very well). Denard was an extremely talented college football player but the guy we missed most after Denard had to be Vincent (bang-bang) Smith. Running touissant as an every down back when he couldn't block to save his life got Devin killed most of the time. De'veon smith seemed like a better over all back as far as blocking/ running goes. I'm also not forgetting Drake Johnson was the number 2 back before he got injured.
4. Key players and possible key players coming off major injuries. Jake Ryan came back mid season after tearing his ACL in the fall. It's hard to imagine he was 100% jake Ryan. Countess had a major injury last year, Wormley too. this Year Pipkins went down, Darboh, Drake Harris, Chris Bryant, Chris Fox and Gardner was beat up all year, I wouldn't believe you if you told me Touissant was 100% all year after that fracture. Hopefully these guys are all healthy enough to play their best football next year.
5. Funchess and Butt are the real deal! Funchess had the dropsies a bit this year but, he was a sophmore and honestly didn't get targeted enough as a freshman. When you drop a 1-2nd down pass yea that sucks but when you drop a 3rd down pass that kills a drive. If Funchess can correct the drops he is a great receiver... Tight end. Jake Butt had an awesome freshman year and physically he and Ian Bunting are very similar. If bunting comes in and plays like Butt as a freshman and Jake improves from his freshman year they are going to be 3 guys who are crazy hard to cover. I'm not even going to mention all th other WR's, someone coming back has got to be good atleast. I mean Darboh was the 2nd coming of Jerry Rice before he messed up his foot... right
6. The defense is what it is. This is the same staff that turned around one of our worst defenses ever and made them servicable. They get a pass from me, so i'm expecting the defense to play a lot better as a whole. We played 3 freshman in the secondary. 2 where true freshman. Part of the season we played a true freshman Linebacker, and our D line had mutiple true freshman and red shirt freshman getting alot of play time. I'm not worried about next year.
Now I admit i'm one of those guys who looks at the schedule and says 10-2,11-1 every year. I've been a fan for a long time and thats usually how it went with one head scratcher (why the hell did we lose that game) a year. So 9-10 wins season are what I am used to. I look at our 2014 Schedule and I see 2 really good teams , 2 good teams and 6 teams we should roll. Ohio state and MSU are really good teams and should be really good next year. They are our best chances for a loss. Everybody else tho, come on you have got to like our chances against. We play well at Notre Dame who loses their 2 best defensive players and even when play like crap they can barely beat us. We had 13 turn overs in our last 2 losses to Notre Dame. Utah plays terrible away from home and everbody else is a home game or mediocre. We usually beat mediocre teams on the road. I'll call us 10-2 and 3rd place in our division. If we finish any worse atleast you guys will see some staff changes, so there is another reason to be optimistic!
January 2nd, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
January 2nd, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^
Question for Magnus and other coaches. Actually multiple questions but along the same theme.
Michigan next year will have a young unit on the OL, but they will be together as group for 2 - 3 years (glasgow only has 2 years left)
Given the above:
1)Michigan ran a lot of zone read with Gardner in the game and other QB run type plays. If Morris is the starter ( he won't be, but I do think he will push Devin). how does that change the base offense and the blocking schemes?
2) Does MIchigan go to it's supposed "smash mouth" offense with a drop back passer and adjust the base offense and line blocking accordingly? ( I am no OL guru, so I don't know if they even adjust the OL with the two different schemes, but it seems as if they should)
3) If they do this, do they stop the zone read and other spread type plays? Morris and Speight ain't Denard or Devin. So at some point don't Hoke/Borges have to change the base offense anyway, why not now?
4)I know the pressure to win is enormous and Devin is the bread and butter, but can they have a more conventional style of QB run plays into a West coast type offense?
January 2nd, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
Point is there will be competition on the line as well. These guys want to win championships, they are hungry, young and talented. They'll push eachother this off season because nobody is guarenteed a starting job.just comes off as silly talk to me. Nobody gets better by "competition" or "hunger". Competing against other iffy players doesn't help and I'm sure they were plenty "hungry" this year. That's all coach speak. I'm certain the O-line is going to be a gigantic tire-fire next year and there's really no reason to suggest it won't be.
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^
You honestly don't think it might help a guy improve if he knows he's got to work hard to keep his job?
A guy who has to fight for his job is probably going to work a lot harder than one who pretty much has it by default. That's not just true in sports. That's pretty much human nature.
January 2nd, 2014 at 7:58 PM ^
you get a slightly-better-than-mediocre OG as the winner. You don't suddenly become an All-American or someone even capable of run blocking effectively just because there is competition or "hunger"
January 2nd, 2014 at 9:03 PM ^
The least player recruited into a D-1 college football program was in the top 0.75% of all graduating high school senior football players in his class. Do you really believe that any of those athletes are mediocre?
When these young men get to college they face an entirely new situation. To a man they were all studs in high school and now they are faced with learning to play against players who were also studs, many of whom are both more talented, older and more experienced. So their advancement depends not just on their innate talents but also on their work ethic. Many, perhaps most, of these young men with the right coaching and enough work have it within them to break out. Some do some do not.
His point is valid. Competing for a position is one of the things that can motivate a player to work hard enough to break through a plateau and no longer perform at the level you deem "mediocre". This is not a "sudden" process but one earned by hours of focused intense repetitions over many months. The player may not become an all american, but they can become capable of effective run blocking, or any other basic skill required of a position.
Have you never been the position where you had to compete for something you wanted? Where you had to decide if getting that thing was worth extra effort? To push yourself beyond your norms? To sacrifice other aspects of your life to provide time and space to devote yourself to achieveing a goal? To risk putting every thing you have into that challenge and being willing to face falling short?
If you haven't then you probably lack the context to understand exactly how profoundly that type of competition can improve one's performance.
January 3rd, 2014 at 5:25 AM ^
January 2nd, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
We'll be picked to finish 3rd in the East, MSU and OSU will be #1 and #2.
There's a lot to be optimistic about, but there's also a lot to be worried about, mainly the coaching, if they are a bad staff, we're not going to imrpove.
January 2nd, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
Indiana could be picked ahead of us. If they find even an average defense they could make some noise.
January 3rd, 2014 at 5:26 AM ^
January 2nd, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
Anyone willing to be optimistic and attempt sound reasoning gets an upvote from me. But I'm still going to rain on your parade a bit:
- Yes, we'll have four scholarship QBs, but one is a true freshman and another (Bellomy) has not demonstrated an ability to be an effective college QB. The media would like to stir-up a QB controversy, because that's just the fantasy of fans who think the back-up QB is always the answer and the media that wants people to read their stories. Not one person on the Michigan coaching staff believes there is a QB controversy, and I seriously doubt that anyone inside the Michigan locker room believes there's a a QB controversy. Devin Gardner put-up some of the best numbers in school history behind maybe the worst O-Line performance in school history. He is, and should be, the starter, and anyone who says otherwise is trying to sell you something. All that said, it's nice to feel like we have capable back-ups and a bright future at the position.
- Do you promise? Do you pinky swear? Look man, I want to believe this...but how can we be sure? If Hoke/Borges/Funk really aren't good at coaching the O-Line at a high level, isn't it plausible that the O-Line is bad again next year? I completely agree that losing the tackles is an overblown issue, but it's also a real issue. And how much will our still ridiculously young interior improve? What I do know for certain is that if there isn't major improvement here, we'll have a new coach and a new staff soon.
- Yes. I agree. No doubt here. But without blocking, does it matter?
- Yes. I think JMFR will be back, and expect Countess and Wormley to take another step forward. I also expect Darboh to make an impact. But this could be offset by other injuries; it's hard to guarantee there will be a net benefit on this front, since it's almost completely random. Just ask Georgia.
- I agree that Funchess and Butt are the real deal. We'll see what the staff does with Funchess in the off-season. Ian Bunting, however, is more Funchess than Butt, and I hope he redshirts. I don't see him making much of a contribution as a freshman.
- If the defense doesn't take a big step forward, we're not getting to 10 wins. I think they can. But will they? Not if Hoke is a bad coach.
While I like your optimism, after 2013, it's hard to lock in any of these six.
January 2nd, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
On the first point, I don't think anyone seriously expects the QB position to be open next fall - Gardner's certainly still the first-stringer. But I do think practices are going to be a little more intense, now that we have two guys with starting experience. Morris has gotten a taste of being a first-string QB and it's not going to be easy for him to go back to being second string. He earned some credibility with the staff (which started calling more difficult passes as the game went on) and in the huddle. Gardner knows this, I'm sure, and it will drive him to have an excellent camp to quiet any doubt whom the starter is.
January 2nd, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
Bump Elliot had some good years too: 9-1 (won the rose), 8-2. Just too many 6-4, 5-4, and worse kinds of seasons.
I am always optimistic about next season - what is the point otherwise? - but will really become positive when we become consistently good. If that is going to happen, I bet it really really needs to start next year.
p.s. did you know Bump is still alive? I wonder if he reads mgoblog...
January 2nd, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
First off, Manball is the way to go...Wisconsin has represented the B1G the last 3 years, MSU this year and Tressel's version of Manball before...Therefore, at least Hoke knew that manball was how you win the B1G. Step 1 accomplished.
Second, to do manball recruit OL and DL especially because the previous coach didn't care about OL and DL. Step 2 accomplished.
Step 3, get Dropback QBs who can process data quickly and take pressure off your OL and help your RB by not alowing 8 or 9 in the box...accomplished
4 - BIG receivers and TEs to beat man to man...accomplished
5 - Skill guys in the secondary who are big as well...accomplished
I could go on and on...but unfortunatley, the missing link is that this "stew" needs time to cook...Dantonio was 5-7 his 3rd year!!!, I will be shocked if we do not go at least 9-3 next year and basically dominate in 2015....
January 2nd, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
I like this comment a lot, I am just worried about the incompetence of the coaching I witnessed this year as far as controlling the team against low grade opponents like akron, uconn, NW, nebraska, penn state, and iowa. However I think everyone's concerns are just going to take time, Hoke in my mind gets next year to show improvement. 9-3 is a huge improvement next year because its not going to be easy with all 3 rivalry games on the road. In my mind, i'll allow Hoke 8-4 as long as the losses are closely contested and they destroy the teams they should destroy on paper. If they struggle with teams like utah, rutgers, maryland, indiana(at home again), then Im done with him.
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^
but I thought I heard that Wisconsin's senior class never won a bowl game. If true ... so much for Manball in the B1G as compared to the nation.
Go Blue!
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^
defeated "spread option extraordinaires" Ohio for the Big Ten title. Isn't MSU and their walrus co-OC running a "testes ball" offense over in EL?
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
I'm pretty sure all four of UW's bowl losses were close games, and three were in Pasadena.
January 2nd, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^
And I think they win handily yesterday if Stave doesn't go down.
January 2nd, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^
Ok, this is my main concern after watching this season, as young as the team was and as bad as the Oline was, what was with the coaching?? After the first two seasons I thought the coaching was fine, then I look at this year and Im very worried. Here are some examples why: The team was just lost against akron and uconn, and these 2 opponents combined for 8 wins total, they were scrubs and Michigan fumbled around with them and could barely get themselves together to win close at the end. Then in bigten play the coaches lost control of the team even more when the defense looked dumb founded trying to slow down a shitty penn state, the offense couldnt execute a fundamental play against msu, nebraska, and NW, and the team just failed to even come out after halftime of the iowa game. How you allow a team to perform so piss poor has to be due to coaching. Can someone offer me some optimism to this coaching situation??
January 2nd, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
I'm optimistic because it appears there will be no coaching changes and in my opinion stability over next season is by far the most important factor in rebuilding the program. Ask me all the what if scenarios where recruits lose faith or the lines' problems turnout to be 100% coaching ect. and I'll still stay with stability.
Using the upper classmen who remained largely from Carr's recuiting, Mattison turned the defense around in a single season and using a hybrid offense (and a bit of luck) Borges managed to gen up and offense that with the defense won 11 games. A big reason that Meyer had his success coming in to Ohio was the depth of talent left him by Tressle. The stability that Dantonio has created in MSU program over the last seven years is a big part of their performance this season, and the depth that will remain when their seniors move on. Stability in Michigan football is what is going to provide a large group of talented upper class men in 2015 and 2016.
I happen to believe that Hoke has what it takes to return Michigan to a top five team. I also believe that goal requires a stable program that retains large numbers of talented recruits. I may be wrong about Hoke, but whether Hoke is still HC in 2016 or not I want the players recruited in 2012, 2013, and 2014 available to whoever is head coach that season. From my perspective a good/great coach can turn a team around in a single season if he has the right mix of experienced talent. Turning a program around requires the right mix of experience and talent all through the roster from RS seniors to true freshmen.
I believe that DB places the same value on stability, and that is the reason that I highly doubt, barring an actual losing season, that Hoke won't be HC in 2015 as well.
Don't get me wrong, I would love for the lines to gel and Michigan win ten or more games in 2014, but my optimism is based on a longer term view.
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:13 PM ^
finished 4-8 last year and did not qualify for post-season play.
They did not go 14-1 like they did back in 2006 (ranked #1) and 13-2 (ranked #1) in 2007.
Now if Michigan had scheduled North Dakota State (14-0) or Eastern Washington (10-3), I might feel a little differently about things.
Still, Appy State returns tailback Marcus Cox (1,295 yards) and QB Kameron Bryant next year so WTF knows?
Also I would like to say this: Thanks Dave!
January 2nd, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
January 2nd, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
I really don't see us winning on the road at ND, MSU and OSU. And we will probably lose a game or two we should win. I just hope the team is much better by the end of the season. This staff needs to show player development. Even if we finish with 7 or 8 wins, Hoke will be back for 2015. I'm not really sure if there will be any changes in the coaching staff but I think a favorable schedule may allow Michigan to win 10 games and a BCS bowl game in 2015. This will probably be enough for DB to give Hoke a new long term contract.
January 2nd, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
Borges is a game killer. His bad play calling gives the team no momentum, & even translates into an uninspired D. Look how many on here get frustrated with his moronic calls - you know the players feel it even worse. Stanfords bad playcalling killed their momentum & drives - same happens to us (not that we have their talent level quite yet)
We have some talent, & the O line can play fine when good calls are made in succsession! See OSU & ND games.
Hoke needs to wear a headset to call TO in key situations, if he hears a questionable play call ...see OSU 2 pt play call for example! Or to tell idiot Borges "enough reverses" after the 2nd one. Or to tell him to have Morris throw the ball down the field a few times so we could maybe score a TD & keep in pace w KSU. How the hell could a coach at that stage not want to know what play is being called?? He just waits to watch what going to happen on crucial plays - just like us?? Wtf?
Bring in some of these key D recruits & we will be on the upswing.
The key is getting a new OC ...