Predict the Top 5 for MBB this weekend

Submitted by BoFan on November 30th, 2019 at 12:02 AM

1.  Louisville 

2.  Kansas

3.  Maryland

4.  Virginia

5.  Michigan

 

5v1 on Tuesday

SeattleWolverine

November 30th, 2019 at 12:55 AM ^

I'd buy Louisville, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, and Kentucky ahead of us and I wouldn't be shocked if we were #5 or so after this week. If we win at Louisville, who will be #1, and tack on a home win over Iowa I don't see how we wouldn't be #1 at that point with 3 top 10ish type wins and none at home coming off of an @Louisville win. Nobody else more than 1 quality except maybe Duke if they win @MSU and with a Kansas win. 

outsidethebox

November 30th, 2019 at 8:33 AM ^

Objectively Michigan is #1. This "rating thing" is at the bottom of the "concern list" of the Michigan coaches and players.  This is entertaining for the fans but registers a solid "zero" for the people that matter. 

For this "fan" what interests me is that this team has great room for improvement. I am most intrigued to see how high they can elevate their play. What Coach Howard and his staff has done here is stunning...and the measures they are employing to acquire this level of play are most pleasing. ( I consider Jay Wright to be the best coach in college basketball-love, love, love how his players play with joy, with discipline and with reckless abandonment-all at the same time.) I love how the Michigan coaches are framing the playing of this game-similar to Wright. Congratulations to all. 

mi93

November 30th, 2019 at 12:33 AM ^

1. Louisville (because they will)

2. Virginia

3. Michigan (because they should since the won't put M higher)

4. Kansas (didn't they lose to Duke?)

5. Maryland (hasn't beaten anyone)

And, by the way, Creighton is threatening to improve M's strength of record if they can finish the win over TT in OT.

J.

November 30th, 2019 at 1:16 AM ^

This is silly and shows a complete lack of understanding of the way that the polls work.  A grand total of one (one!) team has gone from unranked to the top five in the AP Top 25 era (since 1989-90).  It. Just. Doesn’t. Happen.

The reason is twofold:

  1. The teams are not being ranked based upon their résumés, and
  2. There is a ton of inertia in the poll.

Voters are absolutely reticent to change their opinions much until they have absolutely no chance.  The idea that they will say, “eh, yeah, I thought Michigan was about the 30th best team in the country last week, but, man, now that they beat two top ten teams, they’re obviously one of the top five teams” — it just won’t happen.

Posts like this make the Michigan fanbase look delusional.  Post better.

BoFan

November 30th, 2019 at 1:53 AM ^

You are no fun.  This was meant to be a “fun” post. People can post their predictions no matter how delusional. 

And by the way, your comment about a  “lack of understanding” is instead your “void” of any sense of fun.  So I “call” your lack of understanding and I raise with two degrees in math from Michigan and a Stanford masters degree to say drop the logic and the reference to historical statistics which have no meaning. I wouldn’t normally do that except for the BS “silliness” of your post.  

By the way, media pundits are already saying Michigan should be number 1.  

J.

November 30th, 2019 at 2:39 AM ^

“Calling” and then “raising” constitutes a string raise and is not allowed anywhere except on television. ;)

Given your pedigree, you should know that this is an occasion when past performance is likely indicative of future results, because it’s hardly unprecedented for an unranked team to win a couple of high-profile games.  The fact that this rarely leads to the kind of jump that you’re positing is absolutely relevant, and it’s a systemic issue: the pollsters don’t reevaluate their ballots from scratch every week, but rather they start with last week’s ballots, move teams down who played poorly, and moved teams up who played well.

The fact that some media pundit says that Michigan should be #1 just shows that the role of media pundits is to be controversial.

Mr Miggle

November 30th, 2019 at 8:14 AM ^

Your list of reasons sucks. You left off the biggest and most obvious one.

3. Unranked teams very rarely, if ever, have had a week like Michigan just had. While still being undefeated, btw.

Other reasons Michigan should make a big jump.

1. Michigan was already receiving votes and is a high profile team who spent the week playing on ESPN. 

2. A major reason they weren't ranked was because of uncertainty about Juwan Howard's ability to go to head to head with the big name coaches. That's something easy to change one's opinion about.

FrankTheTank

November 30th, 2019 at 5:30 AM ^

You're delusional. No way Michigan is top five after those two wins. Top 15, yes. After Louisville gut punches them they'll be top 20. On the football side: after OSU removes Michigan's uterus today, UM will fall back to 20.

Matte Kudasai

November 30th, 2019 at 6:20 AM ^

I think we will be around 10th, whereas we probably deserve top 5.  Not only did we beat 6 & 8, we blew them out.  What's gonna happen when Franz hits his stride?  Beat Louisville in their gym and they have no choice to put us #1.  Wouldn't that be crazy?

xgojim

November 30th, 2019 at 6:35 AM ^

I agree about the #10 position, though KenPom puts them at #12.  There is just too much momentum in these polls -- it's hard to climb far and easy to drop.  M doesn't get enough credit either since it isn't Kentucky, Duke, or MSU (etc, the "basketball schools").  But a #10 cannot be denied, given the wins over "blue bloods" UNC and Gonzaga.  I wonder how far they will drop.  You would think M would be voted above either of them, given the blowouts endured at M's hands.

It was crazy to see that Gonzaga was favored by 4 to win the game yesterday, even though almost all the stats favored Michigan.  

It was impressive to watch San Diego State (Brian Dutcher coach with Steve Fisher in attendance) beat Iowa last eve.