Poll / Playoff Prediction for Tuesday (Week 10)
Doing this mostly due to inability to sleep for a few more hrs.
I am going to go with the playoff "poll" rather than AP as it's more interesting and less prone to just moving teams up who don't lose.
Predicted biggest movers up: OK State
Predicted biggest fallers down: TCU, MSU, Memphis, Toledo (LSU will fall but maybe only 5-6 spots)
A bunch of teams around UM lost: FSU, Ole Miss, A&M
- Clemson 9-0 (not a great win but over #16)
- Bama 8-1 (jumps meh OSU - yes Cardale not Barrett but Bama beat #2)
- OSU 9-0
- Notre Dame 8-1 (ugh)
- OK State 9-0 (maybe #4, depends on how committee views destruction of TCU)
- Baylor 8-0
- LSU 8-1 (loss but loss to #2)
- Iowa 9-0 (Big 10 West disrespekt)
- Stanford 8-1
- Florida 8-1 (Stanford had barely win last week, this week UF)
- Utah 8-1
- Oklahoma 8-1 (been killing people last month)
- MSU 8-1
- TCU 8-1
- UM 7-2
- Miss State 7-2
- NW 7-2 (I know right? But only losses - albeit turrible ones - are to #8 / #15 plus win over #9)
- FSU 7-2
- UCLA 7-2
- Temple 8-1
November 8th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
I'm surprised MSU would only drop that much. I see them getting the Ole Miss treatment and dropping to the high teens. Or maybe that's what I hope for.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
That seems possible, given Nebraska is very bad at football this year. They lost to Purdue.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:54 AM ^
Losing to Purdue should be grounds for relegation
November 8th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^
Dreaming of RMCB after this happens. Delish.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^
But just need too much help.
Run the table the rest of the way and beat an undefeated OSU and an undefeated Iowa.
That dropped punt will haunt us. Still a NY6, but we'd need serious help to get into the playoff.
- LSU would have to lose again
- Notre Dame would have to lose again
- Baylor would need to beat TCU
- Bama over Florida in the SEC Championship (or FSU over Florida)
- Oklahoma would need to lose again
- Oklahoma St. would need to lose...maybe twice
- Utah would need to lose again
- Stanford would need to lose again
If all this happens...
Clemson, Bama, Baylor, Michigan
Much more likely is win out and you're in the NY6 Bowl, which in Harbaugh's first year...awesome. Just sucks that the punt would keep us out of being a 1 loss team in the Playoff.
--------------------------------------------------
Anyway...here's mine.
- Clemson
- Bama
- OSU
- Notre Dame
- Baylor
- Oklahoma St.
- Iowa
- LSU
- Stanford
- Florida
- Utah
- Oklahoma
- TCU
- MSU
- Michigan
November 8th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:01 AM ^
For example...Michigan and LSU win out. Does Michigan really jump LSU? Especially if Bama wins out too?
We're not jumping ND unless they lose, that's for sure.
We'd probably jump TCU, but if TCU beat Baylor...that could mess us up, that's why I said we need Baylor to win. Because a TCU win knocks Baylor out, but it's another 1-loss team to jump.
Florida will lose, no problem there.
The OK teams need a loss, we're not jumping Oklahoma if they win out...to many big wins.
Utah, we'd lose the head to head. Stanford would be in the same spot as us...if they win out they get more good wins including the Pac 12 Championship game. We're not jumping that.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:13 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:14 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:19 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 5:38 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
amazing what ND is getting out of wins over Temple and Navy. If they win out, they're in. And that'll mean two power 5 conf champs won't make it, and a two loss Mich would be hard pressed to make a case not to be one of the teams left out. We'd need them to lose again.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:53 AM ^
- Bama jumps OSU because they crush LSU and look like the 2nd best team right now. They played someone and OSU hasn't all year.
- Baylor stays on top of Okie St. because voters wanted to see that QB...they saw him
- Iowa rides unimpressive undefeated up the polls
- Stanford and LSU are a wash for me...LSU's has the better loss, they're higher
- Florida's ugly win keeps them alive and over Utah
- MSU slightlhy over Michigan because of the "win" on the road. But that's it. A loss to OSU and they're toast.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:53 AM ^
I just want to go to the rose bowl
So I think it requires us to run the table and beat Iowa (and then OSU beat MSU).
Honestly I dont want to see this team play Bama right now - next year ok.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:55 AM ^
A Rose Bowl win would be awesome...Michigan vs. Stanford would be an intriging matchup for obvious reasons.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:07 AM ^
Question is can the rose pick us over 1 loss Iowa if OSU wins out to go to playoffs. Or must they take 1 loss Iowa over us.
Because it would just make heads explode in EL if that happened. :)
November 8th, 2015 at 1:11 AM ^
We'd have 2 conference losses and be ranked lower than everyone else except maybe MSU who could be lower than us if OSU waxed tem and our loss was a close one.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:24 AM ^
Ok I didnt know if it was a "firm" runner up or not - what if Iowa had 3 losses? They'd technically still be the Big 10 runner up but in that case wouldnt the rose go take the 2nd team out of the East?
In theory the West winner in any year could have 4 losses while the East winner is undefeated and 2nd place East has 1 loss so I was just thinking how the rose is contracted to pick in those yrs. To that end Iowa losing today would have been better.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:32 AM ^
It's not a firm runner up deal, I think they could take UM over Iowa in that situation it's just really unlikely
November 8th, 2015 at 5:44 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:07 AM ^
LSU: @ Ole Miss, vs. TAMU
Notre Dame: @ Stanford
Baylor over TCU
UF: FSU and (likely) Bama
Okla: vs. Baylor, vs. TCU, vs. Okie St.
Okie St.: vs. Baylor, Okla
Utah: @Arizona, vs. UCLA, Pac-12 Championship
Stanford: vs. Cal, vs. Oregon, (BEAT ND), Pac-12 Championship
November 8th, 2015 at 1:08 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:20 AM ^
If Jake plays like today we have a great chance. Problem is he has had like 2 games like this all year and today was vs the 98th ranked D playing 3 freshman in the secondary.
I've also come to the conclusion that home field is worth much more than 3 pts in college (that's a rule for NFL but home field seems to mean much more in college for whatever reason) so meh PSU on road is still difficult PSU at home.
It would just be convenient if JT could return for MSU game and then go on a drinking binge again to celebrate so we get Cardale.
November 8th, 2015 at 4:00 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 2:49 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 4:03 AM ^
Mr. Yost wrote above:
That dropped punt will haunt us. Still a NY6, but we'd need serious help to get into the playoff.
- LSU would have to lose again
- Notre Dame would have to lose again
- Baylor would need to beat TCU
- Bama over Florida in the SEC Championship (or FSU over Florida)
- Oklahoma would need to lose again
- Oklahoma St. would need to lose...maybe twice
- Utah would need to lose again
- Stanford would need to lose again
Teams will eliminate themselves.
- Notre Dame at Stanford (11/28) = loser will have at least 2 losses.
- Stanford / Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game (12/5) = = loser will have at least 2 losses.
The Big 12 schedule is backloaded.
- Oklahoma at Baylor (11/14)
- Baylor at Oklahoma State (11/21)
- Baylor at TCU and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (11/27)
SEC Championship loser will have at least 2 losses. So that will eliminate either Alabama/LSU (SEC West) or Florida (SEC East).
tl; dr: Michigan's hopes of making College Football Playoff are very much alive and got a huge boost with Nebraska's upset of Sparty.
November 8th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
if Stanford beats ND and then loses to a three loss USC in the PAC 12 title game. (with Utah losing @AZ or ULCA). That would eliminate ND and the Pac 12. Which would put us in if we go 11-2 for sure. Seems weird to root against Utah at this point, but it would be best to get them out of the way.
November 8th, 2015 at 7:18 AM ^
...If Michigan beats OSU (and in this scenario OSU has also beaten MSU, that would be a win over a top 3 team. Plus, on this scenario, Michigan beats an undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten CCG.
That would probably be enough to get the 4th spot in the playoffs. Two wins over undefeated top ten teams. That would be a very impresume record
It would probably be between Michigan and Stanford (which has to beat ND in order for Michigan to jump ND).
Anyway, just win the next game.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 5:55 AM ^
I hope it happens. We will see.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:54 AM ^
loss to a tire fire of a Nebraska program, even in Lincoln, confirms the eye test -- Sparty is not a top ten team right now.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^
Rose Bowl in year 1 would be pretty impressive especially since we went 5-7 last year.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:00 AM ^
I think we'd rise quite a bit in the polls with back to back wins over Ohio and Iowa.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:17 AM ^
To that angle, only the Big 12 teams and OSU play multiple top "15ish" teams the rest of the way in regular season
i.e. OK still plays OK State, Baylor, TCU.
If any of those 3 Big 12 teams runs the table or even goes 2-1 it will be very good for them as it would be 2 wins (or 3) vs top 15 quality.
UM can do similar but obv it would require more than regular season. We only have 1 high quality opponent left in reg season. Big 12 teams have 3.
OSU has 2 (us and MSU).
Stanford and ND likewise have 1 each (each other). Utah has none (UCLA is not top 15). Iowa has none.
As with last year the rub comes if 2 Big 12 teams have 1 loss (11-1) and then have no chance for a 12th win while P12, B10 teams do.
The one team that could really make a run which has 1 loss now is Oklahoma - they still have 3 huge games ahead of them and have the blue blood name that would drive them into the top 4 if they take out OK State, Baylor and TCU.
November 8th, 2015 at 5:58 AM ^
You are right. Hope that does not happen for OK.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:03 AM ^
OK State definitely deserve credit for an impressive win but I still have a hard time with that much of a jump in one week with little to no previous credentials.
MSU should drop a long way since Nebraska still has a losing record even with the win over State. (Yes, Nebraska has had terrible luck this year until this weekend.)
I think that we could possibly play for the B1G title if we win out. To do that in year one of Harbaugh would be some awesome foreshadowing on the plot of future seasons of Michigan football. I let the playoff dream go for this year when... THAT happened. Regardless of our final ranking we should play in a New Year's Six game if we win out.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:08 AM ^
we arent going to the playoff, and I honestly don't think we are good enough to belong in the top 4 this year anyway. We do have a chance to win the B1G, and in Harbaugh's 1st year that would be an amazing accomplishment. I really want the Big 10 title drought to end.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^
If Clemson and Bama are 2 of the top 4 now, it doesn't appear as if either will be dropping any of their remaining games, so that's 2 spots sewn up. The last 2 spots are likely the winner of ND/Stanford & whichever team makes is out unscathed between OSU and Baylor.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:28 AM ^
Baylor still has their 3 toughest opponents ahead of them. They could hhave 3 losses in a month. Dont concede anything to them yet. If Baylor or OK State win out they are in. If Oklahoma wins out they are prob in IMO. But if any of those teams lose (and they all play eac other plus TCU next 3 weeks) they probably all eliminate.
November 8th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:30 AM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 7:17 AM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^
Even with a loss, I would put Alabama at #1. No team has more quality wins at this juncture.
OK State is too high (in my humble opinion). I think the Big 12 is overrated and TCU was the first domino to fall. It's only a matter of time before Baylor loses. I'd probably put OK State somewhere around #10 for now. Sidenote: Big 12 probably comes down to Oklahoma and OK State.
I would drop LSU behind Iowa and Stanford, and possibly OK State. A lot of teams would have lost to Alabama, but LSU lost decisively and they need to be treated accordingly.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:03 AM ^
Have you been paying attention at all? Bama has one win over a ranked team.
November 8th, 2015 at 8:01 AM ^