Poll / Playoff Prediction for Tuesday (Week 10)

Submitted by alum96 on

Doing this mostly due to inability to sleep for a few more hrs.

I am going to go with the playoff "poll" rather than AP as it's more interesting and less prone to just moving teams up who don't lose.

Predicted biggest movers up:  OK State

Predicted biggest fallers down:  TCU, MSU, Memphis, Toledo (LSU will fall but maybe only 5-6 spots)

A bunch of teams around UM lost: FSU, Ole Miss, A&M

  1. Clemson 9-0 (not  a great win but over #16)
  2. Bama 8-1 (jumps meh OSU - yes Cardale not Barrett but Bama beat #2)
  3. OSU 9-0
  4. Notre Dame 8-1 (ugh)
  5. OK State 9-0 (maybe #4, depends on how committee views destruction of TCU)
  6. Baylor 8-0
  7. LSU 8-1  (loss but loss to #2)
  8. Iowa 9-0  (Big 10 West disrespekt)
  9. Stanford 8-1
  10. Florida 8-1 (Stanford had barely win last week, this week UF)
  11. Utah 8-1
  12. Oklahoma 8-1 (been killing people last month)
  13. MSU 8-1
  14. TCU 8-1
  15. UM 7-2
  16. Miss State 7-2
  17. NW 7-2 (I know right? But only losses - albeit turrible ones - are to #8 / #15 plus win over #9)
  18. FSU 7-2
  19. UCLA 7-2
  20. Temple 8-1

UMForLife

November 8th, 2015 at 6:06 AM ^

To be honest, how many of us really thought NEB will beat MSU. Well, we all wanted it, but most of us were not very hopeful. Then that happened yesterday. I do not expect all the chips to fall in place correctly. That is a lot of things to go our way. Playoff chances are very very slim. Again, this is Football and anything can happen. That is what makes this season exciting.

I loved the fact that we put up 49 points on Rutgers. We should have done that earlier this year. We need to have big wins in the next two games with wide margins. And a good win against OSU. Rest, we will see what happens. This is already a great year for us. Go Blue!

BlueCube

November 8th, 2015 at 6:56 AM ^

If they look closely at the MSU loss they could discount it not just for the fluke play at the end but all the bad calls that kept MSU in the game. Also a factor could be ratings and the Harbaugh name would help with that. Michigan has to do it on the field and how we play the rest if the year will have much more to do with it than anything else. The above factors may help if it's a close call and would require the committee to do its job which is a long shot.

late night BTB

November 8th, 2015 at 7:00 AM ^

Just do a top 5. Season after season we see that pollsters dont know shit about teams and there are wild movements throughout the year. That, and there arent many good CFB teams.
LSU and MSU are good but not great teams, BU and TCU are stat factories. It takes till late Oct or Nov till they finally play someone with a pulse.



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Perkis-Size Me

November 8th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^

1) Clemson - they won closer than they'd like, but FSU is still a good team loaded with talent that has had their number the last few years. And they're still undefeated.

2) Bama - looked good against LSU, and their defense completely shut down Fournette last night. Hard not to peg them here, especially now that they once again control their own destiny. That Ole Miss loss looks kind of bad now, but so what? If Alabama wins out, they're in.

3) OSU - looked sloppy again, but I think that's more a product of having Cardale Jones temporarily back as your QB. A win is a win, and they're still undefeated and the reigning champs. They can afford to sleepwalk through games until the final two weeks.

4) ND - their only loss is against the #1 team on the road by 2. They're banged up but they keep winning. They'll still need to beat Stanford on the road to get in, but for now, I'd peg them here.

First out - OK State, but if they win out, I think they leapfrog ND. They'd have some very quality wins in beating TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma, all potentially top-10 teams when they play. ND would only have Stanford and a non-P5 Temple team. But OK State will need to win out for sure w/o having that conference title game.



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LSAClassOf2000

November 8th, 2015 at 8:29 AM ^

We are now 13th overal on Sagarin at 86.75 - only Ohio State is higher (shocker) among the teams remaining on our schedule at 90.21. When you consider HFA and do the math for the predicted line, it is 0.70 in Ohio State's favor. I like the idea of walking in there a good each-way bet by some of the algorithms anyway. 

HarbaughToKolesar85

November 8th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^

It's nice to think about The Game as a coin flip this year. We still have to take care of business the next two weeks to earn the right for it to impact the conference title drought though. I know PSU can look sloppy but they are a much better team at home now than they were early and still are on the road. Here's hoping we take care of business and the buckeyes do, too, in the next two weeks. That way The Game is for the B1G Ten East division title. Harbaugh!

goblueUM2012

November 8th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^

I hope ND's "we're too good for a conference" attitude and lack of a conference championship bites them in the ass. 

Maybe a 1 loss ND getting left out of the playoff over a 2 loss Michigan finally forces them to conform to the new college football. 

funkywolve

November 8th, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^

Could nitpick here and there but there's a lot of football still to be played, and it's kind of crazy to think how many games are still left between teams in the Top 20.  It'll start sorting itself out.   

SMart WolveFan

November 8th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

1) BAYLOR!

I hate politics but politics where it dosen't belong is even worse. If men and women wearing suits from the CFP want to send a message to other men and women wearing suits from the B12 that's their business but, me personally, I want to reward players. Baylor has executed the best even if its distroying the weakest teams around and if they continue to play the way they are playing through the B12 gauntlet they will prove to be one of the best teams.

FWIW, since their defense is so suspect, I don't think they are one of the 4 "best" nor do I think they will go undefeated. And yes I agree the B12 should get of their ass and get a championship game AND play higher ranked teams in non-conference, but I won't disrespekt players because old people in suits can't get it right.

 

2) (really 1a and 1b) Clemson

No question they seem to be the best 'team" right now on the field in all 3 phases. I only put Baylor slighlty ahead because Clemson let ND back from a 21 - 3 4th quarter deficit which scares me some.

 

3) OSU

 

 

OKLAHOMA St. that is! They have the biggest, most shocking, most recent actual meaningful victory. Again not into politics.

 

4) Iowa

Straight up think their ball control complimentary offense plus good defense would beat teaOSU if the game were played today (Barrett still drunk right?)

 

5) teaOSU 

Fine, have it and I hope you choke Herbz!

 

6) BAMA

Undefeated should mean SOMETHING!? Right??

Plus it was a horrible loss to a team that yesterday forced us to think about Bret Bylema having sex with his wife; Bama's gotta lose style points for that right?

 

7) Stanford

NW still just a 2 loss team and that loss seems like it happened last year.

 

8) ND

"Best" loss but a couple of suspect wins.

 

9) Utah

A "bad" loss to a very talented team and some very good wins.

 

10) Temple!

Yeah I said it, they almost beat ND if you guys want them in the Top 5, they need to be in the top 15.

 

11) Oklahoma

Better balance than LSU plus trending up acutely.

 

12) LSU

How many other defenses in the top 15 could "take away" Fournette? That seems to be how many "losses" they would have. One demensions are no good.

13) Michigan

They have 1.5 losses but to teams combined with only two losses. Trending up as well.

14) Florida

Only one loss and it's a "good" one but E Carolina, Kentucky and Vandy performances dock them more than a half a game. Stop Vandy disresepkt if you aren't gonna earn it by dominating.

15) TCU

They still have Boykin and a scedule that could get them back in it but the loss is a "bad" one.

16) FSU

2 losses but one of the "good" variety.

 

17) MichSU

No special teams or D and 1.5 losses. Ouch for the Sparty's; that's a lot of broken fingers in East Lansing this moring, cuz that window closed quick!

 

18) Northwestern

2 "good" losses and one of the better defenses.

 

19) MissSU

"Good losses"

 

20) NAVY BITCHES!

1 "good loss"  give those servicemen some "non disrespekt"