Playoff Calculators: ESPN's vs Playoff Status'

Submitted by wildbackdunesman on November 26th, 2023 at 9:08 PM

ESPN's Playoff Predictor

Georgia >99% beats Bama, loses to Bama 76%
Michigan beats Iowa >99%, loses to Iowa 50%
Washington beats OU >99%, loses to OU 6%
FSU beats Louisville 96%, loses <1%
Oregon beats UW 86%, loses to UW <1%
Alabama beats UGA 32%, loses UGA <1%
Texas beats Okie State 29%, loses <1%
Ohio State 58%

Seems unrealistic - Ohio State with a 58% chance and a better chance at 11-1 than a hypothetical 12-1 Michigan if they lose to Iowa (50%)?

Playoff Status' Predictor

Georgia 100% beats Bama, loses to Bama 100%
Michigan beats Iowa 100%, loses to Iowa 52%
Washington beats OU >99%, loses to OU 3%
FSU beats Louisville 100%, loses 0%
Oregon beats UW 100%, loses to UW 4%
Alabama beats UGA 59%, loses UGA 0%
Texas beats Okie State 27%, loses 0%
Ohio State 3%

Seems more realistic than ESPN's. Georgia likely will get to defend their back to back titles even if they lose, but I could see a scenario where they fall to 5 if there are 3 undefeated teams and Bama then gets the benefit of the doubt or Texas.  They are a lot more down on Ohio State's chances.

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RobM_24

November 26th, 2023 at 11:18 PM ^

I think Washington is ahead of OSU regardless. They've said in the past that playing in a conference championship won't be a penalty -- so the comparison between OSU and Washington stops with their regular season resumes. Washington is ahead (Oregon is a better win than PSU, and they're undefeated). The only significance of that game is whether or not Oregon jumps ahead of Washington, while Washington stays ahead of OSU. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

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three_honks

November 26th, 2023 at 9:24 PM ^

On top of that, if Oregon beats Wash (Ducks are favored by 7.5pts, or maybe a tad under 70% likely to win), then 

  • Wash: one-loss non champ; 12-1; played in CCG
  • FSU:  one-loss non champ; 12-1; played in CCG
  • OSU:  one-loss non champ; 11-1; sat at home

Which of Wash or OSU would the committee choose? 

  • If they go by the principle that you don't punish a CCG participant while the alternative sits home, then it's Wash
  • If they go by TV ratings, numerical rankings (e.g. SP+), and the eye test, then it's OSU

If afraid the committee would choose the latter, but the potential of the choice itself lowers OSU's odds.

Joined: 11/13/2023

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umfan83

November 26th, 2023 at 9:16 PM ^

Yeah I have no idea why Ohio State is 58%, it makes absolutely no sense that they would have better odds of making it than Texas. Gotta be something wrong with the formula. It can’t be due to them rating OSU a lot higher because that literally can’t help them, their resume is final. 

Joined: 03/10/2012

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Darup

November 26th, 2023 at 9:20 PM ^

I don't see how Georgia could be 100% even with a loss. If Michigan, FSU, and Washington win there would be three undefeated locks. The remaining spot would be between 1 loss Sec champ Bama, 1 loss Big 12 champ Texas, or Georgia. I don't see how Georgia could be ahead of either champ and since Texas beat Bama they should be in.

Ohio State could only get in if Georgia wins, Texas loses, and FSU loses. 

Joined: 12/17/2015

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ca_prophet

November 26th, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^

The scenario they're envisioning is that FSU gets booted for Georgia because they no longer have their best player and hence are no longer the same team that posted the 12-0 record.

Which is, of course, BS to the "mountain of skulls" proponents, and probably to the committee as well.

I strongly suspect that OSU can only get in if Georgia beats Alabama, Louisville beats FSU and Oregon beats Washington.  Then Georgia, Michigan, Oregon all go, and OSU would have to outdo Texas and Washington.  That would be easier if Texas lost too, but even the scenario above can't be 58%.  It's a three team parlay with at least two underdogs.

 

Joined: 09/07/2010

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McSomething

November 26th, 2023 at 10:14 PM ^

OSU shouldn't get in over a team that went 12-0. An 11-1 shouldn't get to leapfrog a 12-1 team that lost the "extra game" OSU didn't even qualify to play in. So, regardless of CCG weekend, Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State should all remain ahead of OSU. The only teams that should be capable of jumping any of the 4 undefeateds are Oregon, Texas, and Alabama. In that order. And Alabama is a longshot stretch by my logic.

Joined: 09/29/2010

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ppToilet

November 26th, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^

ESPN numbers are trash. Debating why the garbage stinks is pointless, it just stinks.

OSU could theoretically make it in but I don't think the committee will really want to do this unless it absolutely has no other choice. And if Michigan loses to Iowa, honestly I don't think we deserve to get in. 

Joined: 04/18/2011

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MGoVictory

November 26th, 2023 at 9:35 PM ^

Ohio State (58%) has a better chance than if Michigan loses to Iowa (50%)?

Makes no sense. That's basically punishing Michigan for playing an extra game in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Joined: 10/07/2010

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Qmatic

November 26th, 2023 at 9:38 PM ^

Michigan, Washington, and Florida Staye all win; those are 3 Power-5 undefeated champions. They have to all be in. Now, if Alabama bears Georgia, and Texas beats Okie St, how do you put Alabama in over Texas? The committee said they value conference champs and head to head in direct conflicts of who makes it. How can you put in a team over another 1 loss team that lost to that other one loss team AT HOME. 

The committee is begging for Florida St to lose, because it’s not like them putting Bama over a lesser brand name like TCU or Baylor (ala 2014 for OSU), this is Texas. 

I for one, am all for it. 

Joined: 01/09/2013

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MacaroniParty

November 26th, 2023 at 9:50 PM ^

My biggest concern for next weekend is Bama beating UGA and both getting in. Bama would probably be 2 or 3 vs the PAC champion. That would put 1 Michigan vs 4 Georgia. Not ideal.

Joined: 07/28/2012

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DelhiWolverine

November 26th, 2023 at 9:50 PM ^

ESPN has 5 teams from different P5 conferences (who don’t play each other) with a 100% chance of making the playoffs if they win their next game.  ESPN sucks and they also suck at math. 

Joined: 11/26/2017

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RibbleMcDibble

November 26th, 2023 at 9:54 PM ^

Given the TCU precedent last year (TCU ranked ahead of Ohio State, despite losing their final game), I cannot imagine a scenario where Ohio State gets in over a:

1 loss Alabama (CFP is not leaving out the SEC champ for non-champ OSU)

1 loss Georgia (CFP is not not punishing Georgia for losing championship game)

1 loss Washington (CFP is not punishing Washington for losing championship game)

1 loss Texas (CFP is not leaving out Big 12 champ for non-champ OSU)

1 loss Michigan (CFP is not leaving out the team that beat OSU and has a better record)

1 loss FSU (CFP Is not punishing FSU for losing championship game)

Ohio State's chances are 0% based on what the CFP has done in the past. 

 

I hate saying it, but you can bank on three teams: Michigan (because I just cannot see how Iowa can win that game. No offense to Iowa, it just doesn't seem possible without some massive outlier events), winner of SEC championship, winner of Pac-12 championship. From there, you would have one loss teams that all follow the TCU model from last year.

 

 

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SF Wolverine

November 26th, 2023 at 9:55 PM ^

There is a path for OSU, but it's pretty slim.  It's a hell of a lot closer to 3% than 50+%.  Someone at ESPN wants to make book on OSU "more likely than not" getting to the CFP, and I will take as much action as they want to offer.  Lay half of that off in Philly and head for early retirement.

Joined: 10/04/2010

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MichiganiaMan

November 27th, 2023 at 4:16 AM ^

ESPN is just doing the same crappe that cable news does with the early vote counts from non competitive states - just creating suspense to juice viewership. ESPN knows darn well that OSU is out.

Joined: 12/10/2014

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maquih

November 27th, 2023 at 7:28 AM ^

None of this matters.  The committee is literally going to go into a room make some deals and announce their decision.  There's no point trying to predict any of this.

Joined: 11/04/2010

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rice4114

November 27th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^

Two undefeated teams combined have a 3% chance to get in if they lose? Wow. 

That is pretty extreme. Can those numbers be right?

3% for two teams going in undefeated and their supposed replacement is 3%?

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