OT: The Sturgis Rally and COVID

Submitted by JamesBondHerpesMeds on September 8th, 2020 at 10:29 AM

TL;DR - Sturgis is estimated to be responsible for over 25%(!!) of cases in the month of August. 

Should we bill the governor?

 

New @SDSUCHEPS paper by Dhaval Dave @FriedsonAndrew @Drew_McNichols & Joe Sabia ("Contagion Externality of Super-spreader") finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B

See: https://t.co/uByz9ja6hL pic.twitter.com/jdLlLkwRek

— CHEPS (@SDSUCHEPS) September 6, 2020

ChuckieWoodson

September 8th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

Probably not an "attack" on XM in particular, but I have seen this more and more on here; adding comments that one knows will get upvotes but yet, doesn't really add anything to the conversation. This does happen to be a classic example. 

Sure we've all done it from time to time, but it's happening more frequently now it seems.

BoFan

September 8th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^

They did do contract tracing. And you didn’t hear about it because it wasn't big news.  It was in the news, but they weren’t nearly the super spreader events many suggested or perhaps hoped for.  

It’s also not surprising to notice in photos of the BLM and White House protests vs Sturgis and even the Lansing anti government protests that the first have a high prevalence of masks and the other has none. 

blue in dc

September 8th, 2020 at 7:10 PM ^

Many of the places that had large protests (NYC, DC, Minneapolis) did not see large increases in cases after the protests.    If no big spike was caused and there were large protests, we don’t need individual contact tracing to answer the question, did protests cause large spikes.   The absence of large spikes itself proves it.    In other places where there were large spikes (Houston, FL, etc.) there were clearly other things happening in addition to the protests.   Here it is much harder to tease out how much of each activity is to blame, but there is significant evidence that indoor events like packed bars are a prime contributor.   Protests may have exacerbated it, but as many other places showed, protests alone are unlikely to cause a large surge,

M Go Cue

September 8th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^

I suspect XM was less trolling for upvotes than simply predicting the outcome of the thread.  And he is correct.

Pointing out the inevitability of the thread becoming one of the many daily feces slinging episodes between Michigan fans seems like a relevant and reasonable comment.

Maybe I’m wrong but I doubt XM cares all that much about his MGoSchrutebucks total.

ChuckieWoodson

September 8th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^

1. Never said he was wrong.  He's certainly one of the least trollish guys out there for sure.

2. Yes, but it's tiresome when it happens in almost each and every thread.

3. The majority of us don't care and the fact that I'm even talking about it now breaks the first rule of mgopoints... but that's not the point.  If not for points it's for general acceptance/positive reinforcement from a peer group but adds no actual thoughtful content to the site.

oriental andrew

September 8th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^

Probably not an "attack" on XM in particular, but I have seen this more and more on here; adding comments that one knows will get upvotes but yet, doesn't really add anything to the conversation. This does happen to be a classic example. 

Sure we've all done it from time to time, but it's happening more frequently now it seems.

I think it's because of the nature of the posts. There are obviously many more OT and pandemic/politics related posts than ever before. 

As for the quippy/meme/one-liner type comments, that's been a staple of pretty much any message board since the inception of message boards. For me, at least, that goes back to the IRC (internet relay chat) days as a freshman at Michigan in '94. 

RIP NUBS

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^

the problem with the board for months has been the toxic discussions about an important topic.  if we could stick to facts and positions without the sniping and pettiness, maybe something could be accomplished.  you and a handful of others are poster-boys/girls for the problem.  i can't fathom what goes on in your melon to make you both hyper-sensitive and bitter to all things that don't line up with your thoughts.  it is genuinely sad. 

if you want a substantive answer, i would mirror nittany's post, downthread, about how when you actually pull the threads of the rope apart it looks like a sensational article that is based on meadow muffins - an infection rate that is really no different than most places.  a non-story used to push a position.  not helpful. 

and one other important point - counting infection numbers without context is at best misleading and at worst being used as a dishonest weapon.  if we keep testing there will always, repeat: always be covid infections.  and that's besides the countless stories about how inaccurate the real numbers are, including the CDC's confession of numbers problems last week.  

 

 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^

it is and it isn't, if that makes sense.  i don't take that report to mean only ~9800 covid deaths.  what i do take that report to mean though is two things: 1. that comorbidities are so critically important in the context of how we should be addressing the virus that without that qualification no numbers are worthy of use for planning purposes.  2. based on a large number of anecdotes, both personally and numerous other articles, i highly doubt that 180K (or whatever number is used) died b/c of covid.  covid is serious, no doubt, but those numbers are being used as political weapons and skepticism is an absolute must. 

Bergs

September 8th, 2020 at 1:15 PM ^

1.) You're right, comorbidities are critical in contextualizing the dangers of COVID. That said, over 50% of US adults have at least one comorbidity. For those who do not, they frequently interact with those that have comorbidities. Protecting these people is a lot more difficult than simply telling grandma and grandpa to stay inside.

2.) I'm curious why you think citing nearly 200K deaths is a "political weapon" but questioning the validity of that number is not?

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^

to number 2 - one person questioning the validity isn't a political weapon, period.  it's a healthy skepticism born of experience, data input and good faith which all of us exercise throughout every day.  and don't tell me you don't think the virus hasn't been politicized.  i know you know that's true.  so there's your answer.  this isn't counting marbles. 

Bergs

September 8th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^

I mean, that argument can very easily be turned around on you. One person citing 200K deaths isn't a political weapon, either. I believe the virus has been politicized, but I do not believe that politicization is one-sided, nor do I think it detracts from the seriousness of the virus. If you can claim to read my mind then I can claim to read yours - you cannot tell me that you are blind to the fact that second-guessing the numbers has become a "political weapon" for those who want to gloss over the fact that the United States has had, at best, a below average response to the greatest public health crisis of our lifetime. 

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^

What about number 1? 

And as to the other thing, Trump was the one to politicize it. If you don't recognize that, there is no point in continuing any discussion. The only way to not see that, is to not want to see that. Now, yes the left has certainly used it politically as well, but only one side has blatantly lied at every opportunity, repeatedly. Not just a little manipulation of information. Flat out, bald faced lies. 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^

the report comes out at 2.6 comorbidities on average, right?  that's what i think.   i think they are a big deal.   

and trump and the left politicized it, absolutely no doubt about that so i guess we can agree on that.  i don't know the blatant lies left or right.  i have seen all manner of foolish things said but don't keep track.  in fact, this convo and thread is the most communicating about it i've done in months.  

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^

The coronavirus would weaken “when we get into April, in the warmer weather—that has a very negative effect on that, and that type of a virus.”

The outbreak would be temporary: “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”

 “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down.”

The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away.”

The pandemic is “getting under control.”

 “99%” of COVID-19 cases are “totally harmless.”

 “We now have the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World.”

 Mexico is partly to blame for COVID-19 surges in the Southwest.

Children are “virtually immune” to COVID-19.

 The U.S. has “among the lowest case-fatality rates of any major country anywhere in the world.”

“launched the largest national mobilization since World War II” against COVID-19, and America “developed, from scratch, the largest and most advanced testing system in the world.”

 “The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing,” Trump said.

 The Obama White House’s response to the H1N1 pandemic was “a full scale disaster, with thousands dying, and nothing meaningful done to fix the testing problem, until now.”

 The Trump White House “inherited” a “broken,” “bad,” and “obsolete” test for the coronavirus.

The Obama administration left Trump “bare” and “empty” shelves of medical supplies in the national strategic stockpile.

 Referring to criticism of his administration’s response, Trump tweeted: “Compare that to the Obama/Sleepy Joe disaster known as H1N1 Swine Flu. Poor marks ... didn’t have a clue!”

 “Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. We—they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful” and “If somebody wants to be tested right now, they’ll be able to be tested.”

Google engineers are building a website to help Americans determine whether they need testing for the coronavirus and to direct them to their nearest testing site.

America has “developed a testing capacity unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close.”

The United States has conducted more testing “than all other countries together!”

 “Cases are going up in the U.S. because we are testing far more than any other country.”

“If an American is coming back or anybody is coming back, we’re testing,” Trump said. “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested … We’re not putting them on planes if it shows positive, but if they do come here, we’re quarantining.”

 “We stopped all of Europe” with a travel ban. “We started with certain parts of Italy, and then all of Italy. Then we saw Spain. Then I said, ‘Stop Europe; let’s stop Europe. We have to stop them from coming here.’”

“I’ve always known this is a real—this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic … I’ve always viewed it as very serious.”

This kind of pandemic “was something nobody thought could happen … Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.”

At a press briefing with his coronavirus task force, Trump said the FDA had approved the antimalarial drug chloroquine to treat COVID-19. “Normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that, and it’s—it was approved very, very quickly and it’s now approved by prescription,”

Trump was being “sarcastic” when he suggested in a briefing on April 23 that his medical experts should research the use of powerful light and injected disinfectants to treat COVID-19

 The coronavirus is “going to go away without a vaccine … and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

Taking hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 is safe and effective. “I happen to be a believer in hydroxy. I used it. I had no problem. I happen to be a believer,” Trump said on one occasion. “It doesn’t hurt people,” he commented on another.

Trump “didn’t say” that governors do not need all the medical equipment they are requesting from the federal government. And he “didn’t say” that governors should be more appreciative of the help.

Hospitals are reporting an artificially inflated need for masks and equipment, items that might be “going out the back door,” Trump said on two separate days. He also said he was not talking about hoarding: “I think maybe it’s worse than hoarding.”

Asked about his past praise of China and its transparency, Trump said that he hadn’t “talk[ed] about China’s transparency.”

 Joe Biden wants to institute a national shutdown.

 

There is a lot more. 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 5:53 PM ^

and you are brave and wise, as revealed by your post.  timmmaay and i were having a respectful discussion but you are so courageous and insightful you thought it would be a good idea to insult someone.  man, i wish i had that kind of brain power.  how about some questions for you, since, you know, you're not ignorant

1.  do you think someone can only be politically astute if they stay on top of every utterance of every important thinker or leader in a given situation?

2.  do you think that it is possible that people have actually formed opinions, strong ones even, about leaders that have been in the public eye for decades? 

3.  can you tell us a bit about yourself, share what's going on in your life?  the anonymity of the internet makes people think much, much less of a person who pops off like you did.  i'm sure it'll be a treat to learn about you and put some real 'umphf' in your insightful, wise insult.  

JMK

September 8th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^

This is 100% correct. It has been blatant and repeated on one side, the side that has deified a president who demonstrably lies at every turn. Objectively, it’s not even debatable. But hey, these are the guys who brought you “there were good people on both sides of a Nazi rally.” So what do I know? We are so doomed. 

CompleteLunacy

September 8th, 2020 at 6:20 PM ^

It's not a healthy skepticism though. It's twisted reality.

200+K more Americans have died this year than normal.

Notice I didn't mention the virus there. But that's quite a fuckton of extra deaths in such a short period of time - seems like it would have an obvious cause (people don't just die en masse for no reason).

Like, say, I dunno,  a novel virus causing a global pandemic???

 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

i don't have the particulars for the 'rest of the world', do you?  what's going on in zambia?  or viet nam, or the phillipines, etc?   tell me about it and let's discuss.  what are the political dynamics like, what about the media, any bias there, fear of reporting the truth, persecution, state-run, etc? 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 2:09 PM ^

timm

i didn't write that to exasperate you.  i haven't studied them, i don't have a clue what's going on in those countries and, candidly, i'm not going to spend the time to figure it out.  do you have some specific thing about them that is bothering you or you think is important to discuss?  

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^

based on a large number of anecdotes, both personally and numerous other articles, i highly doubt that 180K (or whatever number is used) died b/c of covid.  covid is serious, no doubt, but those numbers are being used as political weapons and skepticism is an absolute must. 

This is what I was responding to with my comment about "the rest of the world", further winnowed down after your reply to the countries I listed above. You still haven't substantively responded, with respect. To put a finer point on it, I'm asking if numbers have been a political tool in those countries? Are they making things up to hurt Trump? 

It's pretty frustrating, when you come in to a thread like this implying that "we" (those of us who are saying some variation of "yes of course this happened") are dumb, or misled, but then don't respond with any real substance when challenged on specifics. I'm sorry, but I don't know how to say that, while conveying full meaning, without sounding a bit offensive. I'd really like an explanation though, I'm trying to understand your thinking, among others. 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^

i try to be generally respectful here (not perfect) but particularly to you, one of my more fav bloggers on here, so if what i'm saying sounds snarky blame the electrons not my intent.    i think i now understand your 'rest of the world' comment.  i don't think there is much connection between the 'rest of the world' and what's going on here in the US in terms of reporting numbers.  we have a political fight here, with opposing sides, and i guess i'd say its an informational civil war.   it's the 'sheep v. conspiracy theorists', if i can give them the labels each side might give the other.  i'm more in the middle, as per my earlier comments.  way more than 9800 people died from covid (including one of my family members), but i also think less than 180K are true covid deaths.  

i have read numerous reports, talked with doctors, heard stories from others, read posts here and triangulated where my opinion is based on that and general life experience including having read way more death certificates than the average bear.  i am not sure if i'm answering your question though.  if i've missed it, let me know.  

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^

I'd say I feel a very similar way, and I'm trying to remain civil and respectful. I don't take any offense to anything you have written. I just disagree with you very strongly. I get frustrated when people on "my side" of the fence distort things as well, but I think the "right" is in another class altogether when it comes to distortions and informational warfare. 

I mean, watch the prime time shows on Fox News, and contrast with MSNBC (the left equivalent of Fox). The intellectual dishonesty, and outright lies are so lopsided it's outrageous to me. I'm constantly gobsmacked that so many people believe what they get from Fox. 

xtramelanin

September 8th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^

i can't tell you when the last time i watched a news broadcast other than a tiny local station for highlights of our kids sports.    maybe a few minutes on election night 4 yrs ago, but even then i went to bed and didn't stay up.  

oh, i glanced at the long post you put above about what i'm guessing are trump quotes?  i really don't pay much attention to him since i consider what is going on a state by state issue.  trump got the ventilators, moved the hospital ships to LA and NY (waste of time, left empty), and after that it's up to the various governors, state legislatures and local gov'ts to take care of things.  when trump tried things like no travel from china he was called a xenophobe by biden and pelosi brought a bill to the house floor called the 'no ban' act to prevent trump from closing the borders.  so much b.s. going both ways, can't keep track of it. 

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^

Yes, trump quotes, or the context of some of his statements. You should dive into fact checking them some time. Even examples you're listing in this comment have been proven false, or at least misleading. It does go both ways, but one side is doing it a whole lot more than the other. 

I don't watch the news, or much tv at all. I read from sources like the AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, and other info wires (not Info Wars).