OT: Ohio extends stay-at-home order until May 1
Ohio Governor DeWine just extended the stay-at-home (shelter in place) order until May 1. He had already ordered schools closed (universities remote operation) until that time, but now non-essential businesses are closed for that duration as well (the new order also provided greater clarity on which businesses can stay open and how, since many were not following the spirit off the order).
I think most of us are going to end up there. At the least, the states that are high in cases will.
I think most of us are going to start there. It's going to be Stay at Home until mid-june / july.
Fauci was talking yesterday about basically wait until there is a vaccine or we have achieved herd immunity even as we shelter in place. That basically means this goes on for over a year. I don't actually know how that's possible, but that's what that means.
That's definitely what it should be. I just don't see it realistically lasting as long as it should last.
EDIT: Regarding the downvotes, I'm talking about the actual length of the lockdown, not the need for the lockdown. I don't think the states / fed gov't will do what is actually necessary and shut down for as long as we should.
I'm going to get philosophical here.
The actual mortality rate for this, per a lot of academics, is <1%.
(the ACTUAL rate ---- total deaths divided by confirmed cases is not the actual mortality rate)
I believe in God. If I were God and I saw humankind shutting itself down for 18 months because of that, I would be angry. God gave us the gift of life. He want us to enjoy that gift, as much as possible. He doesn't want us taking that gift but living in freaking fear.
And shutting down life itself because of a 1 in 100 chance of dying - that's living in fear.
Risk is a part of life.
Congrats, this is the dumbest thing I've read on the board through this whole ordeal.
This is the the first post of yours I've thought was total nonsense. If the infections scaled up, the "actual rate" wouldn't scale linearly. There would also be tons of ancillary deaths due to an overwhelmed health system.
To clarify myself - I was talking about the concept of an 18-month lockdown (which a surprisingly non-insignificant amount of folks seem to be in favor of).
Taiwan has shown us how to handle this situation. We need to gear up mask production and testing, take your temperature every day (I do this now,) and start tracking people. If we can figure out how to do that in 2-3 months, maybe we can start opening up some of these "non-essential" businesses, but the big crowd things (football games, concerts, sports in general) are likely done for 2020. Physical distancing will be the new normal until a vaccine and/or a cure are developed, tested, and approved for widespread use.
nittany, they will never understand.
i only wish all the folks who are so rabidly worried about life in this discussion would be even 1% as concerned about life in some other contexts.
I just have to follow this up. Jesus, man, people are now talking shelter in place until a vaccine?
We were flattening the curve, correct? Wasn’t that the goal? Now we are sheltering in place until a vaccine, that is what people are asking for?
This is starting to take on a real ominous tone. There is no fucking way that is going to happen. That is insanity. People start talking like that and it isn’t going to matter all that much because we will be in the midst of an actual civil war.
Anyone who believes we can or should shelter in place for 18 months is so far removed from reality it’s spectacular. We need to flatten the curve and we need to get back to work.
Agreed.
The actual rate is the actual rate.
There's a difference between CFR and IFR - it's been discussed numerous times over the past weeks.
CFR = (total deaths)/(total confirmed cases) <> IFR = actual rate.
Right. But, when it's all over, the IFR will be the CFR, no?
No. The CFR for H1N1 in America was 3.0%. The IFR (as estimated by the CDC, serology testing helped estimated this number) was 0.02%.
That is a huge difference. A factor of 150.
I'm not saying it will be a factor of 150 for Coronavirus, but nearly everything I've read indicates the factor will be 10+ for Coronavirus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#Terminology
Thanks for the info. Apparently I was dumb in thinking that the total number of people who end up dying from the virus vs the total number of people who end up getting the virus is the important number.
It's the number who get the virus that is being under-counted. There is an assumption in epidemiology that some number of people who have an illness don't get counted during the outbreak. It's only afterward, based on testing for antibodies, that an estimate of the actual number of infections as known. That's essentially what is assumed with SARS-CoV-2 as well.
Believe me, the estimates of 1% or less didn't make sense until that was pointed out to me. It's certainly not obvious.
Taking this musing to its logical conclusion, you're talking about a scenario where everyone can get tested at a hospital checkpoint. Then employing a lottery system for positive cases or telling everyone over a certain age that they're SOL because personnel and PPE capacity is rationed.
It's an intriguing thought, but it wouldn't even be floated publicly until after the election, regardless of outcome.
I propose everyone who believes in the let's all get exposed and the chips fall where they may approach pick one location and do it all together so you're not increasing exposure risks for those trying to flatten the curve. There's plenty reason to believe death rate can be in error on the high side but I with out health care workers, perhaps it gets worse than 1%. If everyone gets sick the same month a lot people won't be able to receive care. Risk reduction is also part of life, that why cars come with seat belts. People who can work from home should do it as much as possible, and people need act like adults and avoid social gathering until the virus is contained or testing is wide spread enough for people to know where or not they are carrying it. I you fail to do so you could be killing others, if I recall correctly god was against that.
This was an interesting article....if we all stay in place, we will never get herd immunity. And none of our vaccines work all that well, even the lowly flu, so having an expectation that we all stay in place for anything approaching 6 months is just not doable: https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
Also, average death here is 78years old .... If you quarantine the elderly, that would take 80% of the hospitalized cases out of the equation and the rest of us can get the herd immunity we need.
The idea that only the elderly are hospitalized needs to be dispensed with. Yes, most of the people who die are elderly, but quite a few younger patients are spending time in hospitals as well. Seniors are not 80% of COVID-19 hospital patients.
I'm not suggesting that younger people aren't be affected but their outcomes are much better if they are affected. Not so much for the elderly. So if you take the elderly out by forced quarantine for 90 days or more would take them out of hospitals so the rest who are young and need hospitalization, can get the treatment they need.
This was an interesting article....if we all stay in place, we will never get herd immunity. And none of our vaccines work all that well, even the lowly flu, so having an expectation that we all stay in place for anything approaching 6 months is just not doable: https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
I hadn't seen this nor anyone talk about it. No one seems to be admitting that flattening the curve now will only delay the inevitable and the other option is keeping people shut down long term. I think people and small businesses might be less accepting of that if they knew the original 2 weeks would turn into 2 years.
To be clear, flattening the curve was not exactly about people not getting sick. It was intended to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. As soon as the peak is past, that will be the goal: keep outbreaks contained to the degree that hospitals are able to deal with the number of patients.
Maybe....but once we let everyone go out and about we will be faced with another round of quarantines because we can't handle another spike....it's a rinse and repeat scenario for years on end unless we get herd immunity.
Yeah! Fuck science! Let’s just pray on it. God will protect us.
The magic man in the sky will save us all.
It appears he only takes the ones he loves. The rest of us are left here on earth to defend ourselves from the idiots.
People are too fixated on what the “true” mortality rate for COVID-19 is. It’s trying to hit a moving target. A lot will depend on when and where someone gets sick - is their local hospital still doing OK, or is it getting slammed? It also could depend on what sort of treatment they get (Hydroxychloroquine? Remdesivir? Nothing?). And obviously there is the question of their risk factors. Someone from the inner city who hasn’t seen a doctor in years might be at greater risk than a suburbanite who’s gone regularly for checkups.
We will finally have a number long after the outbreak is over, but it’s just going to be a general figure, not applicable to every context.
The mortality rate isn't even the most important number, its the need for ICU beds and infection rate. When hospital systems get overrun its not just about picking who to save and who not to save for Covid patients, its also impacting mortality rates for heart attacks, strokes, gun shot wounds, etc. As long as the severity remains in place where allowing the spread overwhelms health care systems the actual mortality rate when receiving proper care could be .1% and it would still be bad policy to let it run.
I agree 100%. We are destroying our economy over a virus out of fear and panic. People need to get a grip and get back to life.
If someone gave you a bag of 100 Skittles and told you one would kill you, would you take the chance?
Most people would say no, but you're obviously a fucking idiot, so that's a serious question.
Nice analogy, shows that you're the fucking idiot.
Suppose if you reached into the bag of skittles and picked one out of one hundred and ate it. And if you lived you would be given $10 million bucks and a night with Emily Ratajkowski? Now that’s a choice.
Sorry, coronavirus isnt turning you into jason statham..
What if someone gave you a second bag of 100 Skittles and told you that 30 of them will make you lose your job, the business your poured your life savings into, your home and not be able to feed your family for an extended period of time? That would at least make you think.
I would not pick from that bag.
That’s a very interesting comment. Philosophical you say? Some philosophers believe there are two types of people, the “we” and the “me”. Which one would you be?
As far as God, there are two different gods in the Bible. There is the God of the New Testament and the God of the Old Testament. Which one do you believe in?
I don’t believe in the philosophical separation of we or me, I don’t believe you are one or the other. I’d also rather believe in the New Testament. I do also believe as a human species we evolve in ways that are much different then the animal kingdom and these viruses that are only out to survive.
That human evolution comes from exposure. Exposure to people with different backgrounds, ethnicities, and chronic conditions. Exposure to the realization that everybody’s the same, they want free will and a happy life with maybe a spouse and kids, a home and a good job. And after they have done that all that hard work, they want a safe and long retirement. What they don’t want is for their fate to be determined by some asshole politician or worse some statistician.
Put your immediate family in a room with approx 80 other people. One will die, would you do it?
While I don’t think that hunkering down for 18 months would make the top ten list of things god might be pissed off at us over, I also agree that sheltering in place for 18 months is not a plausible path forward. I say this as a 50 year old in the high risk population who has two high school daughters, so I understand at least some of the challenges to the idea that isolating the 40% of the US population who is in the high risk group is remotely easy.
I think we are going to have to find a middle ground. Not sure what it is, but I thank god that Fauci is around to help design it.
Not negging you.
Not putting down your faith.
But that's really not how God works.
I just can't figure how we can shut down the country for that long. I doubt that happens
Agree. At some point, economic activity has to resume, otherwise there is a likely depression unlike the world has ever seen. And IMO, the risk of that is too much to keep the lockdown going indefinitely. I think by late spring we'll see a marked decrease in new cases and few deaths by then.
I agree at some point the economy needs to ramp back up and probably long before a vaccine is available. I think the best hope is to ramp testing up dramatically, I'm sure there are statistical models better than my guessing... But I won't be surprised if we need tens of millions of test run a week, and high exposure people like police and medical staff tested multiple times a week. Perhaps we could need over a billion tests performed??? Maybe that's far more than necessary, South Korea has done a lot but nothing close to that and their active case numbers are declining
The reason S.Korea is so successful is because the force the quarantine on people. I don't think we can do that here, though.
Um, aren't we doing that though, at least to some extent? My cousin was in Germany last month. When she got home she had to quarantine for 14 days.
Jesus, dude. What's happening in Michigan now is already way more severe than anything Korea did. There was never a quarantine in Korea except on people who are actually infected (and maybe now new arrivals to the country even if not infected). There have literally been traffic jams of people on some narrow passes when I've gone hiking the past 2 weekends in Seoul. My friend has been going to bars and clubs every weekend. We've never had a shortage of toilet paper in Korea either.