OT - Masters Weekend Who Ya Got?

Submitted by wolverinestuckinEL on April 6th, 2022 at 11:50 AM

The best players in the world will tee it up in the year's first major tomorrow.  Practice rounds likely to be rained out today but the Thursday-Sunday forecast looks clear with wind on Thursday and Friday and cooler temps throughout the weekend.  In a stunning turn of events the greatest golfer of my lifetime will be making his return to professional golf at a course that he knows better than most (all?) of his competitors.  Vegas has Woods at +4000 to win the tournament which seems unlikely although a couple competitive rounds that see him playing Saturday will keep eyballs on the tournament for the final rounds.  

Other notable odds:

Cam Smith +4000 alongside Tiger Woods seems like the best play in my opinion.  Cam Smith has been playing great golf for the last 6 months and has finished in the top 10 multiple times at this tournament with a runner up finish in 2020.

Jon Rahm is the favorite to win in Vegas.  Has the all around game to win the Masters but his putting has been subpar so far this year.

Scottie Scheffler is the new World number 1 after winning the WGC matchplay two weeks ago.  He is +2500 but is fairly inexperienced at Augusta making his 4th start in the championship.

I'm all in on Cam Smith to slip on the green jacket Sunday, Scheffler to struggle, and Woods to provide more great memories in route to a top 20 finish.  

What does the rest of the board see happening this weekend?

 

drjaws

April 6th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^

I usually look to who is playing well. Sam Burns has two wins this year and has been playing great golf, but as a first timer I doubt he gets it done. Cam Smith is a good pick. Same with Scottie Sheffler.

Who should be in the mix: Rahm, Shauffele, Finau, Hovland, Koepka, and JT.

I'd love to see Tiger win it but I gotta go with my fellow Cal Golden Bear Colin Morikawa (+2200).

bacon1431

April 6th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^

In the winter, I put money on Hovland to win a major this year. Got an odds boost for the Masters, which made me more comfortable with his odds to win at +2300. 
 

I usually stick with “top 10/20” bets for golf. I’ve got Spieth, Louis, Koepka, Morikawa and Zalatoris for top 10. 

HarmonHowardWoodson

April 6th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^

I have liked top10 and top20 bets in the past...until a few weeks ago when I bet a player to finish top 20, he finished tied for 20, and I lost money on the bet (my "winnings" were only 20% of my initial bet). How do you lose money on a bet that didn't lose? At the LEAST, a bet like that should push.

When the books have the odds advantages everywhere already, I don't think I'll be making those bets any more.

BLUEinRockford

April 6th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^

Always liked Rickie Fowler to win at Augusta, but it seems that might never happen. Rahm has the game but can he make the putts to win. My favorite to win this year is Will Zalatoris. Really like his game. That being said, I probably just jinxed him. JT is a solid pick as is Morikawa. Lots of talented, young players that could win their first green jacket. I will be watching it except during the Meeeechigan Frozen Four game.

BlueKoj

April 6th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^

I like Rahm to find his championship form or Morikawa figure out Augusta and Spieth to play strong. Tiger will play the weekend, but will only thrill a couple of times and not contend on the back-9 on Sunday.

M Go Cue

April 6th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^

I like Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele this weekend.  Both have been sniffing around the top over the last few years and also have played well in some windy conditions.

I just friggin love Masters weekend!

BlueKoj

April 6th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^

I wouldn't say the Masters champion is "likely" to come out of left field who no one predicted had a chance. Most winners are top-25 to 30 players. The Angel Cabrerras and Zach Johnsons are the exceptions. The field is more likely to win over my 3 names but I'd expect some top-30 player to triumph this weekend.

1VaBlue1

April 6th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^

Not sure how you're putting Tiger in the top 20.  He hasn't played in, what, 14 months - except for one exhibition round in a cart a couple months ago.  You think he's physically ready to walk 72 - at Augusta - now?  Add in the mental drain of The Masters...

I don't think he has it back yet, physically.  If I'm wrong, and he's in a late pairing on Sunday, his competitors will melt around him.  Tiger may be physically unable to compete, but mentally he'll still be viable.

wolverinestuckinEL

April 6th, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^

I'd think just based on knowledge and experience a physically limited Woods can finish top 20 at the Masters.  The physical strain of walking 4 rounds is biggest limiting factor for him.  This is a guy who wasn't supposed to be competitive in 2019 and won so if he thinks he's physically able to compete I'm inclined to believe him.

outsidethebox

April 6th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^

I would say it is the other way around. Tiger is a competitor and you never loose that drive. It's the physical part that is in question here.

Edit: Sorry, I somehow misread your post...I agree with you. However, I do not believe he is at much risk for "mental drain"...he gets to play with house money on this one-that can be both a negative and a positive. 

UNCWolverine

April 6th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^

Not sure where you're finding these odds. My two sportsbooks both have Smith and Scheffler at +1400. Can't imagine any book is giving +4000 and +2500 on those two.

s1105615

April 6th, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^

If sports betting would ever come back to FL I’d bet on Tiger.  He wouldn’t be playing unless he thought he could win.

Personally I don’t think he will win, but it’s as good as a bet as any other one person in the field, so why not enjoy it even more if he does?

AlbanyBlue

April 7th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^

Masters bets:

C. Smith -- to win: $3 to pay $27 (+800)

S. Scheffler -- to win: $2 to pay $30 (+1400)

V. Hovland -- to win: $2 to pay $42 (+2000)

X. Schauffle -- to win: $2 to pay $46 (+2200)

C. Morikawa -- to win $2 to pay $46 (+2200)

J. Rahm -- to finish top-5: $15 to pay $53.90 (had a profit boost at DK on this one)

L. Oosthuizen -- to finish top-10: $10 to pay $60

W. "Mulva" Zalatoris -- to finish top-10: $15 to pay $60

These were placed either at DraftKings or FanDuel. Best of luck in your wagering.