OT: Employment/Labor Shortage/Wages question

To piggy back on that a bit, quite a few people used CoVid to retire early. Those early retirees aren’t going to show up on unemployment numbers but represented a comparatively significant number. 
 

Theres also the fact that we’re still experiencing a pandemic that has resulted in the death of a rather large number of people. While most deaths occurred with people who are above the working age, there’s still a greater than 0 number of people who would otherwise be part of the work force that are dead. 
 

Short answer: there are less people in the workforce and that’s where the worker shortage is showing up, but unemployment numbers won’t reflect that. 

I'm not an economist but part of it is lower labor market participation but there are likely more factors involved than pure "I'm not looking for a job anymore".  Like, there has been an increase in retirements and, more notably, people not re-entering the workforce after retiring due to a variety of issues, chiefly health concerns but also just demographics.  We've hit the edge of Baby Boomers hitting retirement age and I assume we'll see lower labor participation from them as a result.

Also, a lot of people who quit moved to other jobs, particularly jobs away from food service/hospitality, and so those sectors are feeling the burden likely more than others at a time when those places also want to re-open more and try to recover.  But at least in November more people came off the sidelines and looked for work; close to 473k did so.

I honestly don't know what's likely to happen going forward but it does seem like wages have risen but the jobs people want to work have changed; it's anecdotal but I know a number of people who moved away from jobs that required more in-person interaction (e.g. retail, healthcare) to lesser ones and that was driven in no small part by competitive wages, fewer risks, and (at least one) a lower chance of dealing with raging assholes in a public space.  I am interested to see how it all looks after the holidays when some of the temporary hiring wears off.

This is how it has been explained to me as well

I have a Masters in HR and Industrial Relations from Loyola.  Go Ramblers when they aren’t playing Michigan!

Erik in Dayton did very well w the first reply.  

Nothing you said is incorrect.  The labor force participation rate is basically how many eligible workers (defined as the civilian non-institutional population over 16 so it excludes military and people in jail, basically) are actually working.  That metric is about 61.3% right now, down about 2% (or about 5 million people) from pre-pandemic levels.

This isn't necessarily the only reason for the shortage though.

I suspect just like there was a major shift in demand for the types of goods and services we buy (and hence have a major shortage of some things like lumber), we have also had a shift in the type of work we need people to do so it will take time and retraining.

So I don't think it's safe to say that if the five million people that haven't gone back to work entered the labor market, everything would be solved.

Yep.  It is a combination of Boomers retiring, Millenials not entering the workforce, and the number of people who have died from Covid.  In the US, 800,000+ people have died from the virus.  Many of those people had jobs.

AND, as another person pointed out, there are now 800,000 fewer potential employees (plus those who are permanently disabled by long COVID, or staying at home to care for others).

Two weeks!

Yeah that’s not what unemployment rate is at all.

We are watching the fall of Rome, part 2, but it's not because of the unemployment rate.

Just to be sure: I'm still getting a Turbo Man for Christmas, right?

But there’s plenty of his lovable sidekick Booster!

I have never "job jumped" in my 30 year career - in fact before the pandemic I feared I was nearing the age where I settle in & ride it out, as any "better" job would go to a younger person.

But after being furloughed & now seeing the labor market shortage, I'm actively seeking to job jump now. I love the company I landed with after my furlough, but as our industry was very hard hit by social distancing/quarantine rules etc, people had to take less or wait at home for unemployment checks or stimulus that may not come for weeks or months. 

Now we can get fairly substantial raises jumping jobs (I've been offered positions for more than my pre-pandemic salary). Yet as always, the place that hired you at the hardship rate doesn't want everyone coming for raises at once, so they're slow playing it.

Upshot is, I'd stay if they matched what I'm being offered, but I can't if they won't. Great people or more $?! There's the conundrum...

Co-sign this. I increased my salary by 50% in 2.5 yrs mostly by job hopping and a little bit by promotion. Left a job 2.5 yrs ago (after 8 yrs) and got 30% bump (in a lateral positional move). 1 yr later moved to another job, got 10-12% more (a level 2 to a level 3 jump in position). 1.5 yrs into that I earned a promotion for another 10%.  
can’t keep that going for too long because it risks getting that reputation. But…one or two moves in quick succession can get you a lot. Then you probably need to stay for at least 3 years to make sure you’re not labeled as a job hopper that won’t stick around.  But that’s the way it is now. If a company can keep you for more than 2 years it’s often considered a success. 

If YOU knew anything about labor economics you'd realize this started long before Biden took office. 

I didn't neg you HAIL, because we probably agree on the issues. 

But I didn't understand your point either! I've been an economy expert since before Biden, before Obama, since back to Clinton. 

I agree blaming Biden for any part of this economy is not just willfully stupid, but also wish fulfillment for Cult45 members. But when did people ever not freely venture opinions on shit they don't understand in the least?!

Too bad the most important person now isn't.