OT: Does luck exist?
If it does, I'm one hell of an unlucky person.
Would this make it hereditary? My father has welcomed me into his world of gambling over the weekend. Specifically, poker.
Last night, we traveled to Talking Stick, a casino/resort of sorts located in Scottsdale, Arizona. He won some money, lost some money, but ended last night in "the green".
He thinks he is just a straight boss when it comes to both Hold Em' and Omaha High/Low, claiming that he would make upwards of $50k a year from poker alone if he were just MORE LUCKY.
Luck, to me, is intangible. It's happenstance. Probability. IMO, no one person could consistently remain luckier than another. It would be lucky to flip a coin and land heads ten times in a row, but I guarantee you it will happen eventually if you flip that coin long enough.
My father, on the other hand, cites a time when my grandfather was in Ohio stadium with a friend. They announced that someone's vehicle was on fire in the parking lot (for some reason) and my grandpa's friend turned to him and said: "You know that's my car".
So, he's unluckier than the tens of thousands of others in attendance? How many other people turned to someone and said THAT'S MY CAR ARRRRRGGG WHERE'S A POOP COOLER?!?!
To me man, it's just a hunch. Maybe his car was susceptible to explosion given it's condition. For the record, it was in fact his car that was on fire.
Nonetheless, what say you on luck?
"Luck is something invented by weak-willed men to explain there failures." -Ron Fucking Swanson
Ah, but can one prepare for luck? Everything happens just the way it should. Natural disasters, planes going down, etc. It's extremely unfortunate, but you were not born with bad luck nor did you acquire it along the way.
... in fact, that is one of the key tactical skills to have. Being able, on a moment's notice, to shift your plan to take advantage of an opportunity will let you get a lot further than you'd think.
Well then you're taking advantage of an opportunity presented to you. It's not really a tactical skill (preparing for luck).
November 21st, 2014 at 10:43 PM ^
Ok, ok. I think I see what you're saying. Essentially, you can use preparation as a tactical skill in order to almost sway your fortune, and in turn, take advantage to create better outcomes that will end positively more often than not.
Idk. Seems like the equipment needed to find out would be too expensive.
I had daily encounters, as did my family & friends.
Too bad this was all before reality shows, we could have our 15 minutes.
to the fact that patience has a hell of a lot more to do with winning in poker than any form of luck. If you don't have the patience to set at a hold em table and wait for the cards to run in your favor, you probably shouldn't set down. If the same number of people play the same number of hands, all woud have the same probability of winning the same amount of pots. That is a very simple fact. The ones that win consistently realize when and when not they should participate past the hole cards and keep a running meter in their heads as to the odds, i.e., 13 in every suit, how many left after the flop, counting what's shown and what's in your hand. Those that stay with a less than a 50% chance of hitting the card they need are depending solely on luck, but pot odds play a role as well. If you're in a position to make 12,000 by betting only 1,000, then pot odds would override the easier decision of whether to stay or not. If there is one diamond left on the river to hit the A high flush you are waiting on and it hits, you are a lucky s.o.b. If not, you are a stupid s.o.b., and shouldn't have been in the hand. Point I'm making is some things are worth a gamble, not the same as making wisest decision based on circumstances, whereas others like betting 1,000 to win a 50 pot makes no sense at all.
I think, by the impression your writing gives, is your dad has played a lot of poker and has a pretty good feel for the game. This, reading people, is more important than understanding odds because everyone can do that. But without incorporating that into his game, he will always be at the mercy of wheter the cards are running for him or against him that particular evening.
No disrespect whatsoever. I value your opinion a lot actually; I wanted a gambler's perspective. He actually prides himself in online play (Bovada is the site he uses), so odds and patience/timing are very imperative to his success.
It's actually the more successful gamblers that happen to have a stronger faith in concepts of luck...I find that interesting.
But they are still playing the odds. They might say they were lucky to find a table full of people with no clue as to what they were doing, but the same odds of finding a like table apply to everyone who gambles, even those that the successful ones take advantage of, but whoever keeps preaching being prepared is fully aware of that which he speaks.
A game like Hold 'em is more than just "luck" because you are playing against other people. A good player, who plays the odds, will win more hands on average than one who doesn't. A good player, who can read his opponents tendencies, will win even more hands (or lose less) on average.
But there are no breaks! Each person can shape the way the earth will unfold itself every day, but no one catches a "break". You create odds. But luck will never show favoritism towards these odds; they play out as they will.
There is no such thing as luck, only chance and probability.
I had a premonition you'd say that. Maybe just a lucky guess though...
luck is only for the lucky
I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird, and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.- Franklin D. Roosevelt
I busted a mirror and got seven years bad luck, but my lawyer thinks he can get me five.
- Steven Wright
Good luck doesn't exist. Bad luck does.
One cannot exist without the other.
A fair coin will be tossed twice and a fair die with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be rolled twice. What is the probability that at least one head will be tossed and at least one number greater than 1 will be rolled?
(A) 35/144
(B) 1/2
(C) 25/48
(D) 9/16
(E) 35/48
Reminds me of how the RSA SecurID fob always made me want to calculate probabilities - what are the odds that there will be digit showing up twice among the 6 digits being displayed?
After not getting in a car accident for 14 years, I got in 2 in 3 days this week (neither were my fault). I pondered whether the first accident caused me to be tentative, drive differently, and get in the second one, but there was nothing different with how I drove. Sometimes people are going to rear-end you while they're on their cell phone or run a blinking red to your blinking yellow and plow right into you and there's nothing you can do about it.
Things you think are impossibly rare actually happen fairly often, you probably just don't notice it. Another example is a very geeky one from probably 9 years ago. I used to play World of Warcraft, and there used to be a talent for warriors called sword specialization. This ability gave you a 5% chance to get an extra swing (double damage). That extra swing could also chain into another 5% chance to get a third swing, and so on. A friend of mine once had this chain 6 times for 7x damage. That's 1 chance in 64 million.
It was a moment like the scene from Pulp Fiction where the guy missed all six shots from close range and Jules thought it was divine intervention. I told him that God didn't make your sword swing 7 times, it's just really rare, and of the billions of sword swings that happen in that game any given day, I'm sure it happened probably 100 times a day, but the people didn't care; they probably just said "whoa, that's a lot of damage" and never bothered look in their combat log to realize what happened.
+1 for the Pulp Fiction reference. That's one of his favorite Tarantino movies. He should know better.
"Fortune favors the bold." - Latin proverb
"Luck is the residue of design." - Branch Rickey
Combining the two, if you plan well, you'll get more opportunities; if you also have the conviction to take advantage of the opportunities you get, you'll be lucky.
You create better odds for yourself. This is one of the better responses I've seen, thanks.
To me man, it's just a hunch. Maybe his car was susceptible to explosion given it's condition. For the record, it was in fact his car that was on fire.Average, unremarkable car in random place spontaneously igniting = bad luck But if the car's condition was that it had Michigan tags, University of Michigan pennant flying, bumper stickers with "OhHowIHateOhioState" and "Happiness is Crushed Buckeye Nuts" and the like, unattended, in the parking lot outside of Ohio Stadium, on game day against Michigan, "surprisingly" just burst into flames, well, I would call that something other than bad luck.
I was playing with my father's friend and his douchebag son who I hate, who thinks and acts like he's a better player than I am.
My swing was a little quick from the top, came over it, and hit it 10 yards farther left than I wanted to where there is a tree lined creek. My ball hit the tree, ended up in the fairway,perfect angle to the flag cut on the right. I ended up beating the prick by 2.
I don't care what that was, I'll take it.