Objective Projection On Remaining Games
I have a computer model I call OAP - “opponent average performance”, which uses only 2019 statistical data, no preseason rankings, recruiting talent or anything subjective to measure and predict performance based on your statistics as compared to your collective opponents’ average statistics. In all 49 FBS vs. FBS games last week, it was 65% ATS and the projected spread was even closer to the final margin than Vegas in 47% of all the matchups.
I’ve been a die hard Michigan my whole life, and give you this preamble to highlight the concern, dare I say legitimate panic, that I’m feeling by looking at the numbers right now. At the risk of stating the obvious, if this team doesn’t raise their level of performance on the field, we are heading towards an absolute dumpster fire of a season. Neg away for the upcoming nut punch if you want, but if the team doesn’t improve, and all their future opponents keep performing at their current averages, here is how the remaining games are currently projected:
Michigan 29 - Rutgers 15
Iowa 22 - Michigan 14
Illinois 30 - Michigan 28 (!!!)
Penn State 31 - Michigan 17
Notre Dame 36 - Michigan 17
Maryland 31 - Michigan 24
Michigan State 25 - Michigan 15
Indiana 27 - Michigan 26
Ohio State 45 - Michigan 14
I don’t think that the season will play out like this, I think this team can raise their level of play, but I do feel like it shows how bad we have performed this season to date.
We are playing like a 3-9 team right now. I hope this post ages poorly.
For reference, here are the picks from week 4: https://cfbstatnation.com/week-4-review-oap-picks-vs-vegas/
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
I don't think losing to a program that lost to EMU at home is a real threat to beat us, and I doubt we'll lose to both MD and IU, but I can easily see them losing every other game on the schedule.
So, anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5.
8-4 strikes me as sunnily optimistic.
Unfortunately, at the moment there are signs Harbaugh may be following the general trajectory of the other UM alumni football heroes it's hired. Kipke started out very well with the program Yost had built over the previous three decades, but things completely fell off a cliff in his sixth season in '34. Alumni hero Oosterbaan coasted on what Fritz Crisler had built and won a NC in '48, but gradually coasted into irrelevance by his last season in '58. Hero Bump Elliott succeeded Bennie, and his 10-year record was mediocre at best, with the exceptions of the '64 and '68 seasons, and his last season finished with the 50-14 pasting by OSU.
When Harbaugh was hired, it's fair to say that the vast majority of the fanbase assumed we were getting our version of Bear Bryant—the player hero who comes home and elevates the program back to elite levels. What I've been fearing since Harbaugh was hired is that it was equally possible we were getting our Johnny Majors.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Thanks for your input.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
I can see 7-5; 8-4. Losses vs osu, psu, and ND. I think MSU is a winnable game, it’s late in the year, home, and they aren’t great either. However if we played them this weekend, we’d probably lose. Iowa will be tough, again, we are going to have to improve to beat them. Hopefully we go 1-1 between Iowa and MSU
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Rutgers should be a comfortable win.
Indiana, Maryland, and Illinois should be a wins. Probably competitive into the 2nd half, but we should win. If we lose one of these games then something very bad is going on.
Iowa and MSU are tossups at this point IMO. I think we go 1-1
PSU, ND, and OSU are going to be losses. The question is how bad will they be?
So I have 4 more losses which puts us at 7-5 for the season. Could be 6-6 and could be 8-4. But 7-5 is most likely IMO.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
yet, we still have a shot at going 11-1.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
We should only practice for the OSU game for the rest of the season, then kick their asses as a 4-7 team.
Just for fun.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
If we get good at whatever it will take to beat OSU:
1. Stopping a strong offense from scoring points
2. Scoring points
then we will probably be good at things to beat the rest of the teams on our schedule
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
seconded.
hell, I'd take 2-9 headed into that game as long as we win
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
The meltdown this weekend proved that everyone who says "OSU is all that matters" are full of shit.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:21 PM ^
While I certainly believe “OSU is all that matters” is hyperbole the Wisconsin game cause room for panic that we can’t even hang with OSU. We don’t look sharp in any area besides punting.
Another point of “OSU is all that matters” I believe most were saying multiple wins in the B1G would be great but it’s moot to win most B1G games and have another clunker vs OSU (see 2018). Unless we fix things fast we won’t have to worry about winning most B1G games.
Good news is this team is very talented on offense. I hope they realize the potential and right this ship.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Where is the Dr. Mantis at? I really hope he is ok.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
I think a model based only on 2019 statistics is probably pretty worthless at this point considering how unrepresentative the nonconference games are in the grand scheme of things. The three teams that will definitely be able to exploit our DT issues are Iowa, ND, and OSU. If Gattis can get the new offense clicking (and that's a big if) 9-3 seems like an absolute best case dream outcome. I'm thinking more like 7-5 right now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
Well no shit Sherlock. If the team continues to play the worst game it has played in the last 5 years, then this year aint gonna turn out too good. Thanks for your ASSistance.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Did you miss last year's OSU and Florida games? And this year's Army game? If it was one damned game, it wouldn't be a problem.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Did you miss my post? I never said anything about it being one game. But this was as bad as we have looked in 5 years--even worse than any of the games you listed (although they were really bad too.) The OP seems to be stating a fairly obvious conclusion--we are going to have a really bad year if we keep playing like that.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
There is a real chance that we lose the following games.....
Penn State, Notre Dame and definitely Ohio State.
Ok chance that we lose the following games....
Iowa, Maryland and Michigan State....
It's going to be a rough rough year.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Going in to the year, I predicted 3 losses. I am now adjusting that to 6 based on the awful Gattis hire.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
What an awful hire. Maybe next time we can hire someone with even less experience from a school even more known for having control issues with assistant coaches..... lol
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
I think UM beats Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana. I think Iowa, MSU, & Maryland are coin flips. I think UM loses to PSU, ND, and OSU. So, I'd say 8-4 at best and 5-7 at worst with 6-6 most likely. I think Iowa will win, but we find a way to get up for MSU, and improve a bit by Maryland and win that one. ND and OSU kill us and we lose a close-ish game to PSU.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
Respectfully, if your model thinks we're going to lose to Illinois, it needs some work or it's not very useful this early into the season
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
Neither is our offense, but we keep using it.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
Staee will be our for blood after what happened at their place last year. Only way Michigan wins is if Lewerke is hurt again. Players look lost and no one seems to care. 8-4 would be a miracle at this point. I think Michigan finishes with a losing record.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
It's 12 45 in the PM - time to read and post about Perspectives!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
Nothing ever warrants a nut punch, but just know I'm looking at you with a very furrowed brow at the moment.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:08 PM ^
I crunched the numbers are we are going 0-12 in 2020, sorry guys
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
Rutgers is a win. 40-25 ish
Iowa is a similar team to Wisconsin similar Style but I don't know that they'll be able to line up on the offensive line in Ann Arbor and push us around enforces into poor Gap discipline the way Wisconsin dead and they don't have Jonathan Taylor I'm not sure anybody has that kid. Hopefully we get by this game I'm not terribly nervous about Iowa even though they're good.
Illinois is a win even if it's an ugly win. It will probably still be an ugly win.
5-1 at the halfway point 4 and 2 if we lose. Iowa
Notre Dame is really good but I expect a similar game to when we played them last year it's a home game toss up. Will probably lose a boring ugly game though.
Basically this year we'll lose to Wisconsin and Notre Dame and possibly Penn State or Iowa probably not both which means we'll go into the Ohio State game 8-3 ish. We could get upset by somebody else but who knows we could pull our s*** together to at least last year's level and do better than eight and three. I don't know but I'm going to going to go out on a limb and say this team gets it together enough to be an ugly 8 and 3 when we play Ohio State. Almost definitely a loss to the Buckeyes but you just never freaking know with a rivalry game like that. So you'd be looking at 8 and 4 with losses to Wisconsin Ohio State Notre Dame and somebody else probably Penn State. With ugly wins over Michigan State Army Illinois and basically everybody else unless of course we get upset by somebody like Maryland or Indiana. So I predict 8 wins 4 losses losing to Ohio State beating Sparty only because it's at home in an ugly low-scoring game because they can't score either or even beat Arizona State in East Lansing. It's bad... also I think one way or another Harbaugh is done after this year.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
Nah, they'll talk about how much better our academics our and extend Harbaugh for 10 more years.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
7-5. Losses to ND, PSU, and OSU.
ND and OSU are going to light us up, both score 40+ with OSU maybe going for 60 again.
MSU and Iowa are coin flips.
Win the rest.
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
Yeah, I'm glad this model worked out recently, but the fact it seems to be based on 3 weeks of data and doesn't try to take into account for relative opponent, location, etc. makes it a step above dart-throwing and picking chalk.
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
Why do we need to start being objective now?? The irrational posts these last few days should suffice just fine
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Okay so if we don't play better we'll lose. Got it.
September 24th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
We'll beat Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois. Probably. A loss in one of those wouldn't surprise me.
We'll lose to Iowa, MSU, PSU, OSU, and ND. At best, we'll go 1-4 in those games.
Maryland looks 50/50.
We'll have to run the table in the games in which we are favored likely to make a bowl game.