Now we wait. In the meantime, your predictions for next years roster
On the game thread I saw several people speculating that Dickinson would enter the draft after this year. I don’t see that. And I hope that is not the case. Most years you have a really good idea as to what next year’s team will be, but with Covid rules next year is a complete crapshoot. Will any of our seniors return? Will Franz go for sure? Do we shop the portal? Obviously no one knows for sure what will happen but I’d like to hear from speculation.
My thoughts. Livers and Franz will go. I think this is obvious. I think Dickinson returns. I think Mike Smith will come back for another year. I don’t think Chaundee will. Brooks might, but we have young talent coming in and I haven’t heard anyone reliable suggest he would return.
PG: Smith/Collins
SG: Bufkin/Zeb/Portal *This is a big question mark. If Brooks and Smith both return, Zeb might look for more playing time elsewhere. Zeb is probably more of a PG, but if Smith is back he won’t see many minutes there. Can Bufkin come in and start right away? Do we look for a veteran in the portal?
SF: Houstan/Barnes *Dont get hung up on whether you think Houstan is more of a 4. He’s a guy who can hit perimeter shots which we will desperately need.
PF: Johns/Williams/Diabate
C: Dickinson/Diabate *In regards to the front court I could see Johns being the veteran starter but might only get 20 minutes a game. Diabate could back up the 4 and 5 and get 20+ minutes a game.
What are your thoughts?
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
Honestly, this seems like an exercise in futility. So many new variables and moving parts that there is no real way to make an even educated guess.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
I wouldn’t say that. Most would probably agree Livers and Franz are gone. It’s a question of who we think will return out of the other seniors and Dickinson, and then how we think the puzzle pieces will fit together based on that and the talent coming in.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
So is it a foregone conclusion that Nunez is gone?
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
I don't think so unless he is graduating early. I thought the reports were that he wanted his degree from Michigan so I would assume he sticks around next year.
So much of this requires us to speculate on things that we have little or no actual insight into:
Mike Smith - I could make an argument that he doesn’t have much of a pro career so another year at Michigan could give him a valuable masters degree to go with his undergraduate degree from Columbia, that it will provide him an opportunity to truly play big time college ball (not just on the biggest stage, but also in front of a full compliment of fans. Smith may have an entirely different life plan laid out and might make a completely different choice. One could go through speculation on each and every player on the roster.
That having been said, here is my shot.
If everyone wanted to come back, we could have 18 players (at least as I understand the covid rules). I think we would all agree that is extremely unlikely to happen.
Most likely is that all 6 freshman show up
Second most likely is that Livers and Wagner go pro.
Third most likely is that Jace Howard comes back.
That leaves us with nine players to speculate about.
Of the 3 sophomores beyond Jace, in order, I think most likely to come back are:
Dickinson - I think he has been great, but still has tremendous upside. I am hopeful he concludes that Howard and Michigan provide a path to realize that upside.
Williams - really want him to stay, worried about what path he sees to playing time with Johns and Diabate
Jackson - I think he is most impacted by what Smith, Brooks and Brown decide to do, but personally hope he stays and think he does if one or none come back.
Juniors - presuming that Wagner goes we have none
Two non-covid seniors (Johns and Nunez) - think they both stay for different reasons
Johns - hopeful his emergence in the tournament makes him feel like he has a real path to significant playing time
Nunez - think he wants his degree more than the chance for playing time at a lower level - but a great example of the amount of speculation involved.
4 covid seniors (presuming Livers is gone)
Davis - think he goes. If he stays, it will be because he wants a masters degree since his path to playing time looks more limited
the trio of Smith, Brooks and Brown - think the most likely scenario is that Smith stays and the other two leave. Brown has gotten his chance to win and I think if he wants another year of college ball, he will want it somewhere he has a better chance of starting. With Brooks, it is not clear what more he can do at Michigan.
That makes my most likely roster:
Collins
Bufkin
Barnes
Houstan
Tschetter
Diabate
Jackson
Howard
Williams
Dickinson
Nunez
Johns
Smith
and lineup
PG - Smith/Collins
SG - Bufkin/Jackson
SF - Houston/Barnes
PF - Johns/Diabate/Williams
C - Dickinson//Johns/Diabate
bench mob - Tschetter, Howard, Nunez
One of Jackson, Williams, Johns (in that order) as transfer risks that would make me sad (and having one transfer really would not surprise me).
Smith or Dickinson most likely to make a decision that makes me very sad (but I really think they stay)
Brown - most likely to surprise me in a good way
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
Win the game.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
I never liked the 1/2/3/4/5 breakdown of basketball positions. It seems as though the traditional 2/3/4 players have become "wings" that are more similar than different. Most "5s" play more like "4s" (shooting threes and providing some work on the perimeter). The evolution of basketball seems to have left traditional mechanisms for analyzing basketball behind.
Jalen Rose talked about this quite some time ago (also you can enjoy him roasting Skip Bayless).
To OP's question, I think it is premature to speculate. Not because of the ongoing basketballing, but because we have no idea who is coming back. Otherwise, OP seems reasonable. I would think Diabate would get more minutes later on in the season though.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^
There is still some validity to the traditional designation. Livers could be called a wing but definitely not a 2, because you need ballhandling at that spot. OTOH, Brooks is a wing but definitely not a 4, because you need size at that spot.
The 3 is the one that's become the most blurry.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
You are who you can guard :)
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
That makes Franz a twelve thousand, three hundred and forty-five.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Sure, but who's in goal?
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
Can Diabate shoot the 3? It's not mentioned in his hello post. His minutes at the 4 would seem to be very limited there if he can't space the floor.
You left out Tschetter.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
Can Diabate shoot the 3?
He can, but it's unclear if his shot will translate to the college game at this point, so we'll have to wait and see.
You left out Tschetter
Given our roster and his level of competition, I don't think Tschetter is going to see minutes until at least his sophomore or even junior year
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
From what I have seen, Diabate is working on this and has made significant improvement over the last year. Right now I would compare his shot to T Williams. He can shoot it comfortably but not sure it's at a level where you want him taking volume shots. But if he can get to even a 30% shooter level, he will be a handful because he has a relatively good handle for the big guy and great quickness.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Doesn't have to be stated the excitement of the 3 McDonalds AA's and Frankie Collins next year, but the guy that I am really intrigued to see develop here is Isaiah Barnes. His Simeon highlights show a guy with elite athleticism and slashing ability. He has a real Aaron Henry vibe to him.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
I read a report that Isaiah Barnes has improved substantially since he transferred to Simeon. (That's no surprise given that Simeon is known for having an elite coaching staff and developing players.)
I'm also very excited for him. I think the move to Simeon was smart because it accelerated his path on the development curve, raised his trajectory, and enabled him to be a contributor from day 1.
I was SUPER excited (and kinda surprised!) that he picked Michigan but I'm so glad he did. I think he has the game of a future pro - someone like Terrence Ross.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
If at least 1 of Smith, Brooks, and Brown don't come back, then Zeb will 100% see minutes. Also, I don't understand the people who see Houstan as a 4. Given our roster (Williams, Johns, and Diabate), I see the vast majority of his minutes coming at the 3
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
Agreed. While Houstan could swing to the 4 to soak up some minutes if someone is hurt or in foul trouble, it seems pretty clear that most of his minutes will come at the 3. Maybe similar to a slightly shorter Franz except he probably shoots more and drives a bit less.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
He’s Franz, but compacter, gunnier, and shootier.
So he is Livers =D
I think the reason people are slotting Houstan at the 4 is because that is what Livers plays and he seems like a natural replacement for him. But if we have Johns/Hunter/Diabate on the roster next year the 4 will be a bit logjammed. At the end of the day though the 3 & 4 spots in Juwans system are both wings and have enough interchangeability that I dont think it ultimately matters.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
100% chance someone or multiple someones tranfers out. It's the nature of the beast today
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
Weird thing is I don't think that is going to happen with this team this year. If Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, or Hunter Dickinson go anywhere, it will be to the NBA Draft. If Mike Smith, Chaundee Brown, Eli Brooks, or Austin Davis decide to take advantage of the extra year of eligibility for COVID-19 pandemic, I doubt it would be at another school as Michigan can keep any of them with no impact on their scholarship numbers. Brandon Johns has received significant playing time with Isaiah Livers out. Jace Howard probably needs no explanation.
There are only three potential transfer candidates on the roster based on limited playing time this year: Zeb Jackson, Terrance Williams, and Adrien Nunez. I thought reports were that Adrien Nunez wanted to earn his degree so I would assume he returns unless he graduates early. I don't see Zeb Jackson and Terrance Williams transferring given the potential playing time opening up next year.
I actually think it is more likely we net more transfers in than out this offseason.
You could be right, but I think you're underestimating the chances of transfers. A lot of freshman seem to be transferring and I think it has a lot to due with the COVID year. They didn't get to experience a real year as a college student.
Also with Johns, even with his emergence, he's not neccesarily looking at any more playing time. If he proves to be better than Diabate he could play more, but he has to compete with him and Williams in his senior season. Stands to reason one of Johns or Williams will be getting very little PT and one of them could look to greener pastures. Johns being the more likely one because he's a senior and barely played to this point.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
Dickinson would look a lot more like a real NBA prospect if he adds an outside shot to his game, develops some more post moves to match the craftiness of Austin Davis, and works on his hands. Another year of development under Howard could see those pieces come together.
I don't see Brooks or Brown returning. Smith is the x-factor, because the PG position looks pretty thin without him running it back.
Regardless, I'm excited to see what Howard can do with 5* talent that can get NBA buckets.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
I'd rather see Eli come back and play the point than Smith. He's bigger, plays better defense, and takes care of the ball.
Let's not forget that his junior season was cut short and he might want another run at the gold. And maybe to get a year of grad school under his belt. He seems to be a smart kid.
I'd rather see Eli come back and play the point than Smith.
I would too but if we only look at probabilities I think it is Smith. He is already enrolled in For Real grad school at UM, out of Columbia which is a no scholarship league and his pro prospects are much dimmer than Brooks
It is looking more and more to me like Brown and Brooks have improved from possible returnees to likely pros. If they can get a nice contract overseas* there is no reason for either to return
*and I wouldn't rule out an NBA club taking a shine to either of them as well
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
Right on! I think he will develop his outside shot like Teske did. He has nice form on free throws.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
Dickinson's HS highlights showed him making at least a few 3's. Currently with his efficiency in the post both scoring and rebounding, there's not too much reason to shoot the 3 that much. I think seeing him doing a pick and pop 3 when the defense expects a roll would be fantastic though
Shooting - NBA values shooting so highly. I think Dickenson's development around the basket is inevitable - he's so advanced for a freshman already. He'll get stronger and craftier.
For Dickenson to become more than just a seldom-used backup in the NBA, he has to be able to shoot. To me, his stroke isn't too bad, but as a center who's not super athletic he has to take advantage of his height and shoot from above his head.
Guys like Embiid, Jocic, Kevin Love, Gasol brothers, even Joe Ingles (not really a big), and past guys like Duncan and Bird are almost impossible to block because of their high release.
Yesterday I noticed Dickenson get his shot blocked a couple of times - and that's against a pretty small - albeit athletic - college team. Juwan had a good high release - he should be able to coach him up.
Yeah, I agree with this. I see a path for HD to be drafted because of his size, but he would be a project for an NBA team. His stock would skyrocket if he develops (and demonstrates in games) a semi-consistent outside shot. I think he knows that and will return.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Predictions Based on Flimsy Evidence:
-Starting lineup next year of Mike Smith, Zeb Jackson, Caleb Houstan, Terrance Williams, and Hunter Dickinson (6th man of the year in the conference Brandon Johns)
-Michigan reels in one transfer, hopefully one who bolsters 3 point shooting (looking at you, Myreon Jones)
-Wagner, Brooks, Brown, Livers all gone
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
Mike Smith, Zeb Jackson, Caleb Houstan, Terrance Williams, and Hunter Dickinson (6th man of the year in the conference Brandon Johns)
No Diabate? I'd say Williams sees more minutes at the 3 then he does at the 4 due to Johns and Diabate
Williams at the 3 next to Johns/Diabate at the 4 and Dickinson at the 5 would provide 0 spacing
I mean Houstan would see starter minutes at the 3 and Williams would be off the bench. Johns can shoot and Williams can too but just hasn't had his shot fall
Johns can shoot but teams will be willing to leave him and his confidence in it waxes and wanes. Williams shooting is purely a hope at this point. I think it could come but it's no guarantee at all. If we could combine Williams confidence with Johns form we'd have one really good player.
Johns needs to keep finding his stroke and Williams needs to hoist a lot of shots over the off-season. What I really want to see from Williams is an ability to bully players down low and score more at the midrange. That should provide the spacing you are speaking of. That dive to the basket and the pass from Dickinson was pretty.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Nope. Everything is finally going to fall in our favor:
Smith, Brooks, Houstan, Wagner, Dickinson. Diabate, Johns, Brown and Zeb off the bench. We roll everyone by 50.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
Not sure why people are thinking Dickinson might leave. Until he develops and demonstrates a mid-range game and decent 3 point shooting he will have limited interest from the NBA. He does shoot FTs fairly well for a freshman big and has looked ok on a few scattered 17 footers during the season so I would imagine over time he will at least be able to get into the low 30s as a 3 point shooter and do more pick and pop but still it's a work in progress. His current skillset is just not that in demand in the NBA.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
This take on Dickinson developing a 3 point shot while at M is stupid and needs to stop. He'll be back next year, and then gone. He will dominate the paint next year as he should. Any 3 point shot he would take next year would be a disservice to the team. He can develop his outside shot with whatever NBA team drafts him AFTER next season. How many 3 point attempts did Kofi Cockburn have this year?
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
He may leave after next year, but that doesn't mean he will stick in the NBA unless he develops an outside game. Teske took threes as an upperclassman, and I think Dickinson (given his FT numbers) has way more upside.
Even in the paint, as the announcers pointed out every single time he had the ball, Dickinson has limited post moves and relies almost exclusively on turning the right shoulder.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
Limited post moves?
Hunter actually has a variety of post moves. But yes, he can expand his game further and reduce some of his tendencies.
But Hunter's polish and feel for the game is on another level.
Once Hunter feels more comfortable shooting from mid-range (which he has already demonstrated in various games), he'll be tough to guard because he'll be able to face-up out to 15 feet.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I agree with you as far as his NBA career. I look at it from Michigan's perspective though. It was stupid for Teske to ever shoot a 3 at Michigan, and it would be the same for Hunter. Teske was a career 27% three point shooter. That was never worth having his 7' body 23' away from the basket. It would be even worse for Dickinson who is ten times the post player Teske was, and would probably shoot worse than Teske's 27%. Again, I'm only looking at it from the team's POV.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
" It was stupid for Teske to ever shoot a 3 at Michigan"
What?
I firmly disagree.
Teske's percentage from 3 wasn't good but he could shoot well when he didn't rush shots. Him being able to step out to 3 created driving/cutting lanes.
While I agree that players should concentrate on doing what they're best at, they should also expand their games. Sometimes the threat of being able to do something draws defenders to you and opens things up for teammates.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
I stand firmly by my comment about Teske. The guy shot 24% from 3 his Senior year. When you're 7' and shooting 24% from 3, that's always a bad shot in my book. I understand your point about opening up lanes, but how many OREB's/possessions did we miss out on with him 23' away from the basket?
In college, if he can develop a consistent 15'-er from the free throw line/elbow it makes Michigan almost unstoppable. Teams would have to double him all the time - leaving wide open lanes and/or threes for others.
Imagine him at the high post, with deadly options to pass or shoot.
If they choose to cover him one on one he could put up 30.
The best part? It's gonna happen. He's got a whole year to work on it, can already shoot FT's, and he has a fabulous teacher.
Once he masters that he'll be ready for the NBA, where he can continue to expand his range.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
My thoughts?
We play Florida State on Sunday at 5:00 pm on CBS.
Google Kofi's draft status for an understanding of why Hunter may want to develop a three point shot.
Kofi will make an NBA roster IMO - and he cannot shoot AT ALL.
Kofi's gigantic and incredibly strong. He's slowly developing some inside moves, but probably won't ever be more than a huge guy who can bull his way to the basket or throw down an alley-oop or put-back. There's a place for that in the NBA.
DIckinson is a completely different player - his footwork is infinitely more developed, and he has a nice touch with hooks and little flip shots. His FT shooting is good, and he's got a decent stroke.
Most mock drafts have Cockburn at the beginning of the second round. Meanwhile, Luka Garza shot 44% from 3 this year and is not on anybody's 2 round board.