The Pistons wouldn't have any luck if it weren't for bad luck
Yeah, "luck."
Pistons have only moved down in the lottery with one exception - last year. Every other lottery, they've stood pat or moved down. Gotta be one of the unluckiest teams in lottery history.
Are we only talking basketball? I know a hockey team with no puck luck lately…
Well, they did get the top pick last year.
They also moved up from 2 to 1 last year, it's not like they almost made the playoffs and were supposed to draft 10th. So like, it was nice for sure, but not super lucky.
They technically beat the percentages in this lottery. Statistically they should’ve picked sixth, so they moved up one spot.
They were tied for the best odds of having the top pick with 3 other teams. Why should they have been 6th? Legitimately confused.
My guess is he’s assuming that because the Pistons getting the 6th pick was the highest percentage, they “should have been 6th”
Should have used “most likely.” By the percentages, the Pistons were most likely to get the 6th pick.
So 5th is technically a win.
No, the 6th pick was not the most likely. You're looking at it incorrectly.
While 26% is accurate it's still 26% and predicated on the 67% of it not being 1-5. So technically it's not a win since a pick of 1-4 was a 52% opportunity.
Correct, 6th was the most likely individual pick for the Pistons to attain, but the odds of getting better than that was collectively much higher.
That's not even close to accurate. They had a greater than 50% chance of picking in the top four and could not fall further than 7. I don't recall the exact percentages but they had less than a 30% chance of picking 6 or 7.
This is not a win, this is Detroit teams getting screwed in the lottery once again. Lotteries suck.
They had a 26% chance to pick 6th. As far as individual pick percentages, it was the most likely. 14% for pick one, etc, on down the line. On a pick by pick basis they were most likely to pick 6th.
Still the wrong way to look at it.
Maybe this example is easier: imagine they had a 5% chance to get each of the first 18 picks and a 10% chance to get the 19th pick. The 19th pick is most likely in this scenario, but it is not the weighted average "expected" pick. It would be unquestionably unlucky to get the 19th pick because there was a 90% chance of getting a better pick, even though it was the "most likely" individual scenario.
The actual lottery wasn't nearly as lopsided but the concept remains the same. They were slightly unlucky to fall out of the top 4 (had a 52.1% chance of getting top 4 pick). Getting top 4 was basically a coin flip and they lost it. They did avoid the worst case scenarios, even though those were much less likely than the best case scenarios that they also didn't get.
The Red Wings say "hello". Maybe it's an LCA thing.
Assuming Ivey goes 4, I think they'll take Sharpe.
I'd be happy with Ivey, Sharpe, or Sochan in no particular order.
I'm not sold on Ivey. If he was that undisciplined in college what will pro ball do to him? He has a ton of physical talent but I'm not sold on what's between his ears.
Why would the NBA be less disciplined? He had all the rope he wanted at Purdue because he was their best option. That won't be the case in the NBA.
If he realizes his full potential, he is the next Ja Morant. I would take him in a heartbeat if he is available at 5. I would stay away from Keegan Murray, he had was far too often shut down by competent defensive teams.
Are you implying 18-19 year olds in college are more disciplined than 20-40 year olds playing pro ball? Those 20-40 year olds having played college ball themselves mind you. So they regressed in terms of their discipline?
Or are you implying players are as disciplined and mature as they’ll ever be at 18 years old and he isn’t going to improve in that regard while playing alongside more mature players?
make it make sense.
Without wheeling and dealing, I believe you may correct Puti if Sharpe has a good combine. The dude can shoot, D and has a 49 inch vertical and elite height for a guard. There is too much high end potential for Sharpe not to be the pick @5. It's being widely reported that Weaver is liking Murray, but could be just a big smoke screen.
Silver lining here is the 4 teams ahead of them are arguably the most ineptly run franchises in the league so odds are good that one or several make a baffling decision and someone falls to us at 5.
Also, no idea for what but maybe package 5/Grant?
Thunder have one of the best GMs in basketball and are overall a really good organization. I think their rebuild will be coming to an end soon.
Agreed. Plus they have 17 first round picks over the next 5 drafts...that should help.
Without looking it up, I keep going back and forth on if this is hyperbole or not, because I know it's something ridiculous like that, but 17 is so many.
Lol, it's a shame their rebuild is going to end soon with all those 17 first round picks coming up, lol
What? Oklahoma City is one of the best run franchises in the league.
As long as they dont take Murray or Davis I'll be happy. I also like Duren but 5 is just to high for him.
i like murray a lot. 5 may be a bit high tho.
Murray can be the steal of the draft, he does so many things well. Like Sam said this morning, does he have enough 'Dog' in himself? Also, can he play 'D'? No one knows, he played in Iowa.
High pick to help Franz (and Iggy and Moe)!
My thoughts exactly!
Actually I'd argue that you will not see either with thr team next year. That first pick is going to be a big which means you'll probably see MO gone. No upside in having Iggy. They will bring in younger talent.
Of course we get the 5th pick in a 3 player draft. So we need TWO teams to overthink and reach to get one of the top tier players in the draft. Was really hoping to pair Cade with either Paolo or Jabari Smith. Not sure anyone else really excites me in this draft.
Even the top three have some concerns. Cade was easily a better/safer prospect than anybody in this draft.
3-player draft?
Holmgren is odd but I'll be patient with that one. Banchero doesn't strike me as a future All-Star. I can see why people like Smith. Outside that list I think Ivey has significant "bust" potential.
I think this is a good draft to use up "bad luck" and fall from 3 to 5.
If Sharpe is still on the board I'd say roll the dice. He could disappoint but there's significant upside.
Just really like the idea of pairing a bigger wing/PF (especially one that can shoot) with Cade and taking pressure off of him. By the time the draft rolls around, I'll have talked myself into believing Sharpe and/or Duren are the most talented players overall and we would have drafted them even if we had the #1.
Agreed on Ivey. Never trust a Boilermaker n the NBA.
This could be a blessing in disguise for the Pistons. I think both Sharpe and Ivey can be really good and there's always somebody below pick 3 that outperforms his pick. Just gotta find him.
All good. Diabate should still be available.
Now that we know we won’t get Chet for the second time I guess I’m free to just observe his career without any pressure. Im rooting for the young man and think he could be a star but I guess it’s a small consolation that the risk of him not hitting that ceiling won’t be on our shoulders
Remember when Emoni Bates was ranked higher than Chet?
In 2020 when there was very little sports still, wasn't there a nationally televised game between Chet and Emoni? Chet dominated the game, and I think that was the first blow to the "Emoni is the next Lebron" narrative, and it just went downhill from there.
I kind of feel for Emoni. He got too much put on him, too soon with the "Next Lebron" tag and it affected how him and his team moved. At the end of the day, he's still crazily talented and think he'll prove that in the NBA at some point.
To me it was Ivey, Smith, Paulo, Chet, and then everyone else. As long as we were top 4 we’d get a top group guy. Of course we’re 5.
I will admit that I don't get to watch a lot of Arizona Wildcat basketball, but the few times I have, Mathurin stands out to me, to the point where I think he would be a top (3) pick. He's usually in the 6-10 range in mock drafts.
I'm rooting for Mathurin to the Pistons at 5.
I saw him in the NCAA Tournament and he was impressive. Liked his motor and heart.