I know everybody is in panic mode over here, so I thought this would warrant a new thread.
But Matt Dery, a pistons broadcaster just tweeted that he talked to an NBA executive who told him that he thought trey should stay.
I really like Trey Burke. Read @freepwolverinesarticle about him considering NBA. Just talked to an NBA exec who says "Trey should stay".
Linke here: https://twitter.com/#!/deryNBA/status/182574927608692736
From
The first 20 picks or so in
The first 20 picks or so in the NBA draft are based on need, meaning the teams pick a guy at the position of their biggest need. PG is not the biggest need for many of those teams, and there are a couple elite PGs who will be drafted there. The rest of the first round and the entire second round is largely best available. Not many needs are filled by those guys anyway, so teams pick the best player left. Since this is such a deep draft, there will be a lot of those guys above Trey.
This is in response to the peopel saying that this is a PG-light draft year. That's true, but it doesn't matter, especially since the NBA is so deep at PG right now (a big reason Darius is in the D-league).
Disagree strongly
Looking at the top 20 picks from last year, I can't identify a single pick that is clearly based on positional need (i.e. passed on a superior talent), mostly because the teams drafting in the lotto are terrible and there's huge uncertainty with most players.
But most teams are clearly drafting based on overall talent. Derrick Williams (blocked by Kevin Love), Enes Kanter (blocked by Jefferson/Favors/etc.), Brandon Knight (Stuckey/Gordon with a huge hole at C) are just a few of the clear examples of where a teams went talent over position.
Most teams don't rely on rookies to have huge contributions, so drafting them based on need would be silly. It happens, but it's not the norm.
That said, SOME teams will say 'we want a young PG' for whatever reason, and it could be enough to bump Trey a little higher than he might otherwise go. But like you said - there's other PGs ahead of Trey so it's unlikely he goes real high.
For sure...
You nailed it. The NBA is so deep with quality PG that I can't see an average PG like Trey making an NBA roster. When I say average, I am basing it off his NBA skills. Burke lacks the size, strength and passing ability to be a quality NBA PG this early in his career. Stay in school another year and work on improving everything about your game or else Burke will be nothing but a NBADL player or playing overseas.
"This is Michigan!"
Burke is #72 on ESPN's big
Burke is #72 on ESPN's big board and #68 on nbadraft.net's. In other words, he's projected as undrafted and would be lucky to be drafted at all
Potential
The NBA draft is driven largely by potential, which is a function of age. What more can Trey really do? He's 5'11 and that's not going to change. I don't think his draft position can go up other than by virtue of a weaker overall class, and it may go down with age.
It may go up if he shows
It may go up if he shows better decision making than: I'm gonna jack up 5 straight 3's against a 13 seed in the last 5 minutes and hope one goes in
perhaps
Overall, he proved to be a pretty good decision-maker, especially for a Freshman. That last bit - the benefit of the doubt - will be gone if he makes the same kind of decisions next year. The NBA draft is ALL about potential.
Show he can defend a faster
Show he can defend a faster player, for one.
Eating is murder.
true
He could learn defensive technique a la Douglass. But, he's not going to get appreciably faster or more athletic. Age has the opposite effect.
Not at 19.
Not at 19.
yeah
He won't be walking with a cane next year or anything. My point is just that I wouldn't expect his athleticism/quickness to improve.
Realistically, all he can gain is a better overall understanding of the game, demonstrate even better decision-making, and kick his shooting up a little. He's just so polished already that I can't see him improving that much in the eyes of scouts. I think he has more to gain than to lose in terms of their overall assesment. But this IS a deep draft. I don't think it's a simple decision at all.
Speed and age
With training and good health, speed improves through your mid-20s: Tyson Gay ran his fastest 100 at 25, Asafa Powell ran his fastest 100 at 25, Donovan Bailey ran his fastest 100 at 28, Maurice Green ran his fastest 100 at 25, etc.
Mat, he can dominate like CP3 did his sophomore year
Burke has the talent and he will have the talent around him next year to put up 7-8 dimes and get close to 50-40-90 next year. That's a top 5 pick. Point guard is one position where you can dominate at the college level (and nba level) without overwhelming physical advantages. If you want to dominate at the next level then learn to dominate at the one you are at first.
T
I like the comparison in some ways.
Paul is slightly undersized (listed at 6'0 or 6'1) and has no real holes in his game. He came in polished, and looked really good right away. That's where the similarities to Burke end though.
Paul was a 5-star recruit with offers from UNC and everyone else, a top 20 national recruit. His talent was evident and obvious, even though it was (like Burke's) underrated. Burke's not in the same ballpark.
Given his polish, Paul didn't improve from freshman to soph year. His stats were almost identical and his FG% actually went down as defenses focused on him. I suspect Burke will be similar.
While college production isn't that important, if Burke hits 47% of his 3s and 84% of his FT, I'd agree with you that he could be a lotto pick but...he won't. Come on...he's good, but he's not CP3 and he never will be. Nor is Hardaway Kobe Bryant.
It also may go up
It also may go up if he has McGary, Stauskus and GRIII to deliver the ball to and another year to get better at delivering it.
If it's all about potential, and he's rated about 70th, he needs to convince the NBA he has more potential. He'll have the personnel to prove that (again) next year.
There's always school?
So you're saying a Michigan degree may come in handy... You know, the forgotten factor when it comes to the basketball "student athlete's" career options....
I can say this completely unselfishly: STAY IN SCHOOL Trey!
Stock can go up...
Trey height is what it is, but he can work on his strength, work on his ball handling, shot selection and getting others involved more. This is what is key for an NBA PG. Burke is a good college PG, but is far from being a NBA quality PG. Marcus Taylor, Anthony Roberson, Patrick Mills, and look at Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe was a the #18 overall pick by the Oklahoma City Thunder and traded to the Clippers. Eric played one year with the Clippers and now is playing in the NBADL this year. Bledsoe played at Kentucky and left after his freshmen season. Eric is 6'1" and a better ball handler and has a quicker first step than Trey, he is out of the NBA after on year.
Stay in school and improve your game. The NBA does not wait to develop its players, it is a business and will continue to move forward.
"This is Michigan!"
Family
When kids leave for the NBA, it's almost always the family. I don't know if that's the case here, but the odds are highly in favor of that being the case. Someone gets in the family's ear about how their son could be in the NBA making millions, and it often makes them suspend reality.
In this case, Burke is definitely not a sure first-rounder, and maybe not even a sure second-rounder. Sadly, if the pattern holds true, someone in the house just sees millions of dollars, and is sure that even if he isn't drafted, he is still good enough to play in the NBA.
If Burke left, it would be a disaster for him. He has the tools to be a great college player, but is flat-out not an NBA point guard yet. He would be playing, night after night, against guys just as good and fast as he is, but four inches taller. In addition, his signature move won't work against a 6-4 NBA PG, and would get swatted away on a regular basis.
This is a kid who needs to stay in school, and either develop enough game and enough reputation to at least get a few million guaranteed, or get a degree that allows him to choose between TV or coaching.
I like that executive
He's a fine man, and I've always thought so. I like his team, too. They're really good at...stuff.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra
He said he is coming back, he
He said he is coming back, he would not be a first round pick. Why is this even a worry? Relax everybody.
We are haunted by Darius Morris
I include myself.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra
Darius was a sophomore and if
Darius was a sophomore and if anything that proves as a lesson to Trey why you don't leave early.
I'm not arguing that he should leave
I'm just saying that we've all seen the film The Michigan Basketball Player Who Left Too Early and thus have a reason to be anxious about this.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra
Manny Harris and Donovan
Manny Harris and Donovan Warren haunt us as well.
i said the exact same shit
i said the exact same shit about DMo last year, except i was far more vehement.
did not end well.
This is home...
I'd like to say something important.
No shit.
Yep, that's Simba made out of a pineapple.
ESPN Insider Draft Rating
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/results/players/_/id/19759/trey-burke
Second RD/Undrafted - #12 PG prospect...
'Cause I Bleed Blue...
how old is that info
the only date of analysis goes back to November. He could have gone up in the eyes of scouts.
that lists him at 6'1".
that lists him at 6'1". must've been a stretch armstrong ruler.
All that will happen is Trey
All that will happen is Trey will get input from the NBA underclass committee (I don't know what it is called). They will tell him that he is projected as a 2nd round/undrafted prospect and he will make the smart choice and return to Michigan.
I could see Trey being a late first round pick if he stays for 3-4 years, but not this year. I think it is a lot of hoopla over nothing.
EDIT - Michigan Guy beat me to it on the 2nd round/undrafted aspect.
Having the number 1 recruiting class means nothing without good coaches to mold the players into champions!
Thats
exactly what I said about D. Morris
I am not saying anything this time
Sigh
Go Blue!
Burke is a different story
Burke is a different story from Morris though.
I don't have time at the moment to look it up, but I would think that players under 6' tall who are drafted in the first round normally have 3+ years of college experience.
I'm thinking Ty Lawson, Iverson, Nate Robinson off the top of my head (though I don't know if Nate was a first rounder).
There is a big difference in the NBA's eyes between a freshman PG who is 6'4" and one who is 5'11". A guy who is 6'4" will get drafted on "potential" while a guy under 6' usually has to prove it over time before getting a shot with a 1st round pick.
Having the number 1 recruiting class means nothing without good coaches to mold the players into champions!
I appreciate the NBA exec
I appreciate the NBA exec confirming what every rational person in the world already knows.
I think we should wait to
I think we should wait to worry until after our Final Four run next year
I will say this
Coach Beilien had better send Bacari and the boys on the road to start looking at some more recruits now that we have three scholarships open and Burke threatening another. One of those dudes better be a highly ranked 2013 point guard b/c if we're lucky enough to hang on to Burke for one more year, barring injury thats likely it.
2 schollies?
Even with 3 people leaving, I believe we only have 2 schollies open because of the 2013-2014 recruiting class. If we take 3 more this year, then we would have to count on more attrition before next year.
Having the number 1 recruiting class means nothing without good coaches to mold the players into champions!
Yeah - we should see if
Yeah - we should see if Derrick Walton is still available.
An alternative thread title
An alternative thread title could be: "Everyone calm the fuck down"
Seems like we need a PG in the '12
class anyway. Burke not staying 4 years. ... Maybe 2. Now with Bundy leaving we need some depth asap. Any options?
Also, Just wondering what the three defectors saw in Michigan a few short years ago that now doesn't exist. Makes me wonder about the recruiting process and reasons kids pick a school .... or is the choice all basketball related. Very short sighted.
Go Blue !!!
Dave Brandon: Detailed and thorough investigation proves that Freep report was intentionally misleading.
For two of 'em
For two of them, the answer is clearly playing time. Not sure what Evan's reasoning was.
Good to hear
but NBA execs were telling Morris the same things last year. He just chose not to listen.
Except
that I've seen projections that Morris will be drafted in late 1st round. Ditto with Manny Harris.
I've seen nothing on Burke that he's a draftable prospect this year. If he's 6'2", I'd worry but he's too small to be drafted. Even then, he isn't a freak athlete like Boykins, Iverson, etc. to compenstate for his height. Burke really struggle against hard hedge which he'll see every night against a more athletic bigs.
Just some more info on the topic
Chris Balas @Balas_Wolverine
Benji Burke, Trey Burke's dad, tells us they're hearing Trey'd go 18 to 24 in the draft. They have submitted paperwork to test the NBA water
-Those who stay will be champions-
One really has nothing to do with the other...
But I remember when Darius Morris was going to go roughly that high.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra
Who are they hearing that
Who are they hearing that from? An agent who just wants to sign him? Because that's crazy high and will not come close to happening. I like Trey, but he should be smart enough to know that's not true.
is this the same person who
is this the same person who gave Manny Harris and Darius Morris the same exact range? Because I'm pretty sure it's an MSU fan at this point.
Agreed
Agreed, says everyone else.
Intensity is a lot of guys that run fast.
I'm not
I'm not a fan of this computer's trackpad...
Intensity is a lot of guys that run fast.
That's a perfect slogan!
"Trey should stay" somebody go write that in chalk on every square inch of sidewalk on campus.
I know from experience dude. If you know what I mean.
Matt Dery
From my humble basketball knowledge, I don't know why he would be considering leaving?
Its smart for him to get his game analyzed by a committee so that he knows what all to work on during the offseason and the upcoming season, but he doesn't look anywhere remotely close to a first round pick, he might not even get drafted with the talent that is going out in this non-lockout year.