MSU HC Tucker calls himself a 'horsesh*t coach'
Here's a link to the quotation, via Twitter.
Obviously, I enjoy this because it's MSU, &c. His self-critique seems accurate, too, because he personally helped to coach the DBs.
One sub-topic I'm interested in hearing about from the board, putting aside the football aspect of it, is how helpful saying this about oneself can be.
On one hand, I like frankness and willingness to take responsibility. I really dislike it in others and myself to not be honest about what happened and attempt to rewrite the past, often to feel better. Though on the other hand, I do think there is truth to some ideas that we listen to the things we say about ourselves and that negative talk can harm your output and growth. Is the solution maybe to be honest about the situation but not describe it in absolute terms about yourself? Something like, "I made this mistake, but I am capable of better."
September 20th, 2022 at 12:49 AM ^
Did he slap himself?
September 20th, 2022 at 12:59 AM ^
I think this is a reference to something I'm missing, but just in case it isn't, I don't recall seeing that mentioned anywhere.
Edit: Just saw the GIF. That is nuts.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:26 AM ^
John L. Smith was the gift that kept giving. Four losses to Michigan in four seasons.
September 20th, 2022 at 2:49 AM ^
And it's so hard to choose a favorite. Braylonfest? Ripping their heart out in EL?
As a Michigan native I'm partial to the 2006 blowout in Ann Arbor, where they showed Jeremy Bonderman's ALDS start against the Yankees on the scoreboard after the game got out of hand.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Yes! This was my first Michigan game so I share for your fondness for its memory
September 20th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Remember that '06 game like yesterday, because I was on a flight back to Detroit from Newark with a bunch of Yankee fans.
September 20th, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^
And so many one-liners from that loser! John L was a dude!! Every bit as useless as a coach that Booby Williams was, but far more entertaining...
September 20th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
John L...so misused in East Lansing. Need proof? Just look at his post-MSU successes at noted powers Fort Lewis and Kentucky State.
September 20th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
I still watch replays of that game they blew to ND, John L Smith was truly a national treasure.
September 20th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
And he kept giving after -- his catchphrase at Arkansas was "Get Your Piss Hot" - which is such an undervalued phrase
September 20th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
What’s up with that??? Apparently “hot piss” is a thing:
September 20th, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
They were all so much fun. 2004 is obviously the most memorable, but 2003 and 2005 wins in EL were so awesome as I remember how much shit-talking their fans were doing those weeks leading up to those games, especially in 2005 when Michigan was struggling and Stanton's September heisman campaign was in full force.
September 20th, 2022 at 6:41 AM ^
That's the first thing I thought of too. Good ol' John L.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:06 AM ^
Idk a thing about position coaching or player development, but I watched nearly the whole UW game and thought there were definitely some weird game theory choices.
- They went for 2 when it was 22-6, which makes sense. Classic Brian point about finding out if you're down by 14 or 15 earlier. They got that one, and then UW put up another 7 to make 29-8. At that point MSU scores another TD to pull to 29-14 but Tucker goes for it again, which makes no sense. You're down 15 - kick the extra point to make it 14, getting to 13 down has little value. Instead they failed and were back down 15 again.
- With something like 14:40 left on the clock and down 3 scores (36-14), Tucker goes for it on 4th and 6 from his own 24(!). Wtf. They fail and turn it over in downs, this sets up the goal line stand - interception - UW field goal sequence that makes it a four score game and essentially put it out of reach.
Struck me as odd in both cases - the first is just dumb, IMO, and the second felt strangely desperate. Given what they did the rest of the quarter, a punt there and a stop might have been the difference between never quite making it close and really taking that game to the wire.
September 20th, 2022 at 4:31 AM ^
This is the kinda shit that works when they play us. It wasnt your superbowl tuck tail and take your L.
There is a couple decades of bad breaks coming their way. It starts with a buyout of 7 years and $63 million+.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
That $95 million extension Tucker signed does not prove he is a great coach but rather a great negotiator. He had 4 years and $25 million or so left on his original six year deal, which was double what he made at Colorado. Somehow, he frightened MSU into giving him $95 million. As though he had proven himself to be the equivalent of Nick Saban. A year and a half later he is a self proclaimed horseshit coach.
September 20th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
He didn't negotiate anything. Fan boy Matt Ishiba had such a raging hard on for a guy who beat Michigan in his first try, and overtones from LSU possibly showing interest, Ishiba made him an offer he couldn't refuse.
I have a mortgage with United Wholesale. On one hand....gross. But on the other, I view it as my way of helping Sparty keep their version of Hoke under their employ.
September 20th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
while painful, we can always hope the 2021 loss to MSU might help Michigan in the long run by locking in a (hopefully) OK but not great coach at MSU.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
Have to disagree with you Guinness. You think Tucker's guys were not out there whispering rumors and fanning flames? I'm sure they were working overtime. And why not? It worked. But then Tucker and his guys knew MSU was weak and could be frightened.
September 20th, 2022 at 5:35 AM ^
On that strange decision to go for two, I thought Tucker was just confused about the score. 29 is an unusual total and he couldn't handle the arithmetic under pressure.
Down three scores in the 4th Q is a time to be desperate. I suspect there's very little difference between going for it and punting.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
And up to that point, all their best plays had been on 4th down.
September 20th, 2022 at 6:15 AM ^
They went for 2 when it was 22-6, which makes sense.
Later in the game that would make sense, but the second quarter is too early to be chasing points.
It seems like he just goes for 2 whenever his team is down a lot of points.
September 20th, 2022 at 6:40 AM ^
Agree completely. I don’t think you ever chase in the first half, especially the way that game felt. Lots of big plays, complete opposite of a rock fight.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
Eh, does it really matter though? If you think you have close to a 50/50 chance, which any decent college offense probably has, the expected points earned is the same. Probably better if you have a #collegekicker.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:34 AM ^
When it was 22-6, it was probably still to early to be going for two. I realize that it was a difference between two scores and three, but statistically the chances of succeeding on a two point play are not 50% (historically they are closer to 33%, while kicking is closer to 95-99%).
Coaching wisdom is that you only start going for two later, when you are running out of time. and can reasonably assume the opponent can be held to not scoring again.
Of course there are other considerations: if your offense is on a roll and the opponents defense is exhausted or disorganized, then going for two may make more sense.
September 20th, 2022 at 6:30 AM ^
He used that same strategy against Michigan last year that worked because of K9
September 20th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Yeah I think he's been so successful chasing points early (mostly against us) that he's been convinced to just go for it everytime. And to his credit, I've watched a lot of their games and it works way more often than it should. But the odds gotta revert to the mean at some point.
September 20th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
@The Homie J
Chasing points and being ultra-aggressive does indeed work for him.
That game Saturday had two phases: the portion when both teams ran their standard offenses and employed typical game theory (during which Washington was clearly superior) and the part where MSU went for everything while Washington played less and less aggressively. Tucker gets that you need to move on to phase 2 ASAP against superior competition.
September 20th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
Against us last year, it was pretty straightforward. Down 30-14 late in the 3rd quarter, I think most coaches would go for two if they score. Then, down 30-22 in the 4th, it's a no-brainer to go for it.
His decisions in the UW game were weirder.
September 20th, 2022 at 7:33 AM ^
The NCAA two-point conversion would have two brief resurgences: One in 1970, when two-point attempts saw a still record-high conversion rate of 47.1 percent, and PAT kicks were successful just 88.3 percent of the time; and one final time in 1974, when two-point conversions' expected value of .928 points just barely outpunched PAT kicks’ expected value of .901.
NCAA numbers are more situational, but most coaches should be going for two more often.
It is more fun to go for two and do you really think you were going to win if you kicked?
September 20th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
I wish I could upvote this more. EV is an great way to look at the decision.
One factor for a team would be their red-zone/short yardage numbers. I don't know enough about MSU to say for sure, but I'm thinking that Michigan without Haskins, for example, would adjust their confidence for 2-point conversions down.
September 20th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Small differences in expected value are worse than general game theory for deciding on 2 point conversions. EV calculations are based off of very large sample sizes, and in most NCAA games you're scoring 3-5 touchdowns, so the sample size is small. 2 point conversion rates usually hover at just under 50%, there is a very solid chance you will underperform that ~< 1 point EV for a 2 point conversion on a per game basis. Those numbers are (usually) opponent independent, so you will probably have a higher conversion rate against the Hawaii's than against the Alabama's of the world.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:31 PM ^
Yes, the variance for 2pt conv is much higher so there is a solid chance you underperform ~1 pt EV, but there is also a solid chance you perform well over 1 point per attempt and against a better team on the road, that's variance that you like. When you're the underdog you want to increase variance.
I think he's smart about this.
September 20th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
The thing about a 2-point try is that it's just far enough (3 yards) to make coaches nervous about running the ball. So it typically becomes a passing situation, but throwing into a crowded end zone is tricky, too. I'd be curious to see the breakdown in success for runs vs. passes.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:06 AM ^
Though I think the percentage points you lose with Haskins having graduated you make back up when you consider the current dual threat QB and ability to legitimately threaten with read options.
September 20th, 2022 at 8:29 AM ^
If you punt down 3 scores in the 4th quarter, you're giving up and you're telling your team that...
ESPN had it at 99.9% chance of Washington winning at that point (and it actually somehow went down to 99.8% after they failed). We make fun of James Franklin for a sad FG which lowers your chance of winning to make the score look more respectable, Tucker did the opposite of that here. He tried to make his 0.1% chance into 0.2%.
September 20th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
The fact that MSU's winning chances went up after failing to convert proves those ESPN numbers can't be trusted.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Eh, it's all negligible at that point.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Proven to me when the Lions were up 22-0 and their chances of winning was 95.9%
Yes, they won. But anyone who knows the Lions also knows that a 22 point first half lead would give them about a 50% chance of victory.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
This two point conversion talk is not why Tuck is a horseshit coach. He failed to give his team a chance to win long before, like when he approved the game plan. His lack of pursuing a more aggressive passing strategy early in the game doomed his running game. This resulted in an ineffective offensive performance until the game was out of hand and he was forced to change. No amount of two point conversions was going to change the outcome.
September 20th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
He also gave their DC a raise and is apparently responsible for coaching the DBs.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
I noticed that too. Some really bad decisions.
He pulled that shit all last season and it often worked. It’s a matter of time before we get an epic fail.
September 20th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
I don’t know, MSU lives with a horseshoe in their ass. Their luck over the years has been amazing except for the Dantonio 3-9 year.
September 20th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Squader - I completely agree - when they were down 29-8, it made no sense to go for two. If the sequence was - Spartan TD. kick the extra point - they are down 14. Do it again - they are down 7. And, do it once more - while preventing Washington from scoring - THEN, you have a choice - tie the game - or try a two point conversion for the lead.
That was a very poor decision, in my mind.
September 20th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Wrong... Let's assume they are going to get the 2 more TDs to potentially tie the game and a 2pt conversion is 50/50 while a PAT is 100% to make the math simple.
2pt successful - PAT - PAT = 50% chance you win
2pt failed - 2pt successful - 2pt successful = 12.5% chance you win
62.5% chance you win, assuming you get the next 2TDs.
PAT - PAT - 2pt successful = 50% chance you win (same as just going to OT)
September 20th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
Let's assume they are going to get the 2 more TDs to potentially tie the game and a 2pt conversion is 50/50
They're not quite 50/50 though, but typically around 44-45%. That's including surprise tries (like Oregon's swinging gate, or the one we ran against Rutgers in the 78-0) which probably succeed more often. Take those out and the conversion rate probably drops a percentage point or two.
September 20th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
PATs are also like 93% as well though. Math still works out that you end up with a ~10% better chance of winning.
September 20th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
Going for 2 was actually the right call when down 15.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/
If you get the 2 points - 2 TDs essentially wins the game.
If you kick the extra point - 2 TDs just gets you to overtime where your win % is still 50/50
Miss the 2 points, and it's still a 2 score game and you get 2 shots at another 2 point.
I would hope Harbaugh would go for 2 in this situation as well (and would expect him to with Weiss involved),
September 20th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
Disagree. Remember the situation here: kicking the XP puts them down 14.
Saying they should go for 2 there is the same as saying every team should go for 2 every time.
Instead, by missing it, he puts himself in position of needing another low-probability 2 point conversion just to make it to that dreaded overtime you were trying to avoid. Miss it again and you've worked your way into a loss all on your own.
On the punt - three scores with 14:40 left is not at all the time to go for it from your own 24 on 4th and 6, and I'd be embarrassed for Michigan if they did something that stupid. You're nearly guaranteeing the other team the points that will ice the game. If you kick it, get the ball back, and score, you're now in a two score game with something like 10:00-13:00 left on the clock. Keeping the ball there is hardly your last chance to stay in the game. And indeed MSU demonstrated that as they dominated the 4th quarter- if they hadn't handed UW that field position and 3 points, UW probably doesn't score again, which means it comes down to a single possession in a game where MSU tried two onside kicks.
If it had been 4th and 2 from their own 34? Maybe, I guess I could see it. 4th and 6 from your own 24 with a quarter to play is just dumb, IMO.