Movement In The Top 25

Submitted by Mr. Elbel on November 6th, 2022 at 12:49 AM

Crazy week of football is mostly behind us, with USC and UCLA among others still playing in the night cap. The changes to the top 25 CFP rankings will be dramatic, to say the least. Much speculation is being made already with regards to the top 4, of course. But looking down the rankings, many teams should be gaining or losing a lot of ground. 8 of the top 25 lost this week, with another 2 or 3 winning in ways that could drop them in the rankings or at least hinder their ceiling.

I know, I know, beat Nebraska. But the top 25 has been a part of college football for forever and it’s interesting, so if you’re interested, enjoy. Here’s the rankings from last week, with the game and record result from this week, and some commentary:

1. (8-1) Tennessee L 13-27 to Georgia (between this and Bama losing, I think they drop to 4 or 5)
2. (9-0) Ohio State W 21-7 over Northwestern (ugly win, they might drop to 3. hopefully Stroud’s Heisman odds drop even more)
3. (9-0) Georgia W 27-13 over Tennessee (clear #1 now)
4. (8-1) Clemson L 14-35 to Notre Dame (finally exposed in a way that affected the record, could still be in top 10 though)
5. (9-0) Michigan W 52-17 over Rutgers (could be as high as 2 now)
6. (7-2) Alabama L 31-32 to LSU in OT (should be out of the playoff, but… ya know)
7. (9-0) TCU W 34-23 over Texas Tech (waiting for them to have their game like Clemson did today)
8. (8-1) Oregon W 49-10 over Colorado (could jump into top 6, but still needs luck to push into top 4)
9. (7-1) USC vs. Cal (winning 20-7 at halftime)
10. (7-2) LSU W 32-31 over Alabama in OT (could also jump into top 6)
11. (8-1) Ole Miss bye (teams that lost ahead of them may not fall far enough to break into top 10)
12. (7-1) UCLA @ ASU (winning 28-10 at halftime)
13. (6-3) Kansas State L 27-34 to Texas (should be out of top 25 imo. lost to the only 3-loss team in top 25 entering into this week)
14. (7-2) Utah W 45-20 over Arizona (everyone who won from here down bumps at least one if KSU falls all the way out)
15. (7-2) Penn State W 45-14 over Indiana (oof this makes Illinois losing to IU look even worse)
16. (7-2) Illinois L 15-23 to MSU (speaking of making Illinois look worse)
17. (8-1) UNC W 32-29 over UVA (I was at this game. UVA was winning at half and would not go away, but they are bad. Would not be surprised if UNC drops a despite the W)
18. (6-3) Oklahoma State L 16-37 to Kansas (good Kansas is back I guess, OSU continues its descent)
19. (8-1) Tulane W 27-13 over Tulsa (Cincinnati isn’t walking through that door for the G5 this year)
20. (6-3) Syracuse L 9-19 to Pitt (‘Cuse has really fallen flat lately, and will be out)
21. (6-3) Wake Forest L 21-30 to NC State (Wake could in theory stay in at 24 or 25 with so many loses ahead of them)
22. (7-2) NC State W 30-21 over Wake Forest (will get to move up a good bit this week)
23. (6-3) Oregon State L 21-24 to Washington (making room for some new teams, kick your FGs kids)
24. (6-3) Texas W 34-27 over Kansas State (will likely get the biggest bump this week outside of ND. could find itself around the 15 or so range)
25. (7-2) UCF W 35-28 over Memphis (will stay in top 25 but barely)

With possibly 6 teams dropping out, new faces next week will likely include Notre Dame (6-3) who could climb quite high despite their up and down season, Liberty (8-1) who held on for their first ever win over an SEC team in Arkansas, Kentucky (6-3) who bounced back against Missouri after getting embarrassed by Tennessee last week, Washington (7-2) who could just swap spots with Oregon State, Cincinnati (7-2) who despite falling off this year extend their home win-streak to 31 games, and Coastal Carolina (8-1) who beat App State on Thursday.

Blinkin

November 6th, 2022 at 5:46 AM ^

I think you have your answer already. Clemson never should have been in the top 5 and probably not the top 10, but the committee has their biases.  My other theory is they deliberately wanted to publish rankings that were likely to change in later weeks so they could hold people's attention.  

The truth right now is that Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State are the 3 best teams in the country in some order. Then there's everyone else fighting for 4.  The committee doesn't want to admit that because it would make for crappy TV. 

mackbru

November 6th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^

Illinois will no longer be consider a quality opponent for us. Really we’ll only have PSU and OSU, which is not enough. Should have kept UCLA, which would give us a good shot of making the CFP with a fairly close loss to OSU. It’s Michigan’s own fault. Now OSU is an elimination game. 

Durham Blue

November 6th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^

UConn has a chance at home for a high quality win against #23 Liberty next weekend.  And it would make UConn bowl eligible.  If that happens then one of our three non-conference opponents is actually pretty decent.  But otherwise, yeah, the middle of the B1G is devouring itself which isn't helping Michigan's cause any.

JHumich

November 6th, 2022 at 1:09 AM ^

I would guess... 

  1. Georgia
  2. Ohio (should be Michigan)
  3. Michigan
  4. Tennessee (should be TCU)
  5. TCU
  6. Oregon
  7. LSU
  8. USC
  9. Alabama
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Clemson
  12. UCLA
  13. Penn State
  14. Utah
  15. UNC (should be Texas)
  16. Texas
  17. NC State
  18. Notre Dame (should be about 3 lower)
  19. Tulane
  20. Illinois
  21. Kansas State
  22. Liberty
  23. Kentucky (should be Washington)
  24. UCF
  25. Washington 

JHumich

November 6th, 2022 at 1:32 AM ^

I hate SEC bias and don't think the SEC is actually very good this year. ACC are worse. My actual opinion:

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Ohio
  4. TCU
  5. Oregon
  6. UCLA
  7. USC
  8. Tennessee
  9. Penn State
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Utah 
  12. LSU
  13. Alabama
  14. Texas
  15. Tulane
  16. Kansas State 
  17. Clemson
  18. Washington
  19. Illinois 
  20. Liberty
  21. UCF
  22. Coastal Carolina
  23. Oregon State
  24. Notre Dame
  25. UNC

gmoney41

November 6th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^

I agree.  Sec isn’t that good.  Alabama struggled in half of their games including against a shitty Texas.  LSU still isn’t that good.  Tennessee was never in that game and would lost every time to Georgia.  Alabama dropping 49 on them is hilarious.  Oregon losing 49-3 automatically disqualifies them for me.  You can’t be a playoff team and suffer an ass whooping like that.  No matter when it happens in the season. 

gmoney41

November 6th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^

Lose 49-3 anytime in the season and you are disqualified in my opinion.  Early season loses don’t matter my ass.    Hell Tennessee is done in my opinion.  That loss to Georgia was embarrassing.  They were never in that game.  Why anyone would want a potential rematch in either game is beyond me. 

UMinSF

November 6th, 2022 at 1:25 AM ^

,,,and then there were 4. We're one of the 4 remaining P5 teams.

Sure, our schedule hasn't been especially daunting, but 9-0 is still pretty damn great.

I'm enjoying every win, every week. So much fun to be undefeated!

Go Blue!

 

ESNY

November 6th, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^

TCU vs Tenn is interesting. TCU should be ahead by being undefeated but their only two good wins took serious hit yesterday with Oklahoma St and Kansas State loosing and likely both being out of top 25.  That means they have zero top 25 wins

 I expect Texas or Baylor to make this moot in a week or two though.