The most efficient teams through week 8 (Opponent Adjusted)
Another week of college football has concluded. Let's take a look at team efficiencies through week 8. Parker (@statsowar) is a great follow.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
One thing that passes the eye test for me: Clemson isn't that great.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
No, they're not at all but I also don't see a team on the rest of their schedule that can beat them.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
ACC Championship, maybe, but otherwise you’re right.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
Clemson plays at Notre Dame at night in two weeks. They're favored but I think it'll be closer than you think, Notre Dame definitely has a shot in that game.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
I think it's really unlikely ND wins, but you're right ND has a solid defense so Clemson is likely to struggle. It's just hard to see a ND win without lots of turnovers.
Edit: I am surprised by ND neutral defense efficiency metrics.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
And Sparty giving Stanford a rim job
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:24 PM ^
They're a tree. Wouldn't it be a limb job?
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Louisville has a pulse, and is pretty close to them based on these efficiency numbers. South Carolina isn't terrible earlier. I wouldn't pick them to lose but if they're as mediocre as we think, they'll have a close game or 2 still to play
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
One thing that passes the eye test for me: Clemson isn't that great.
Yea. There's a lot of talk about the elite 6 teams of which all 4 CFP teams are likely to be comprised: 2 B1G, 3 SEC, Clemson. This graphic shows that Clemson does not truly belong among the elite 6 but that...Illinois? does!
Looking at the B1G, we see:
- Sparty at the rear with Nebraska & Northwestern right by their side.
- Then Indiana & Rutgers are the next pair.
- Iowa is extreme but on par with Purdue & Wisconsin.
- Maryland, Minnesota, & Penn St form a trio of 'pretty good'
- ...then a little gap to Illinois
- Then a huge gap to the Big Two.
Utah looks best in the Pac-12, but might not win the conference. Is Oregon St really the 2nd most efficient? ...ahead of UCLA, USC & Oregon.
K-State looks to be in front for the Big XII...ahead of...Texas Tech? Both are ahead of TCU, Texas & NTOSU. Curious.
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
Depends how predictive this model is. It might be biased against teams like Clemson, who can pull out games but, not pretty. I'd personally bet on Clemson to defeat Illinois on a neutral field. Or in Champagne, for that matter.
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
Not the Clemson team I saw yesterday. Their offense wasn't very good. Syracuse just needed a pulse on offense to win that game and they didn't.
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^
But Illinois? Clemson has been playing down to poor competition for a decade and people have been underestimating them and writing them off.
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^
Illinois against a team that cant pass and the best offensive player on the field would be the Illini RB. Yep.
But like pollsters some have no idea what is going on in the college football world. Illinois is smothering offenses and running it very well. Much like Clemson that plays in the Atlantic Big Ten West they are the best of a bad group of teams.
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
How on Earth did Illinois lose to Indiana? That one is a huge head-scratcher.
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
Minus-2 in TOs and 8 for 81 yards in penalties. If I recall there was a terrible officiating moment near the end that was impactful as well.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
Clemson only wins in Champagne if they can bring the refs they had yesterday
October 24th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
Does Illinois really have a better defense than Iowa? Yeesh, I'm slowly moving from the "Good for you, Illinois" category to "I missed you when you knew your place."
October 23rd, 2022 at 5:00 PM ^
Ridiculous that an AP voter voted Clemson #1.
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
Until Clemson starts losing to the Wakes, BCs, NC states and Syracuse's of the world in 50/50 games they will be a top 5 team. They are so close to losing 2-3 times a year but stupid good luck Nebraska marches on! They are like last years MSU every year.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
Sparty = .75 × Colorado + .25 × Michigan
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
I'm not much of a statistical wizard but if I read this correctly we're good and State sucks.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:47 PM ^
You are in fact a statistical wizard. Congrats!
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Tuck working hard to make MSU look like Colorado.
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
That’s an insult to Colorado
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
So are we saying Indiana has the second most pressive win in the entire country?
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
The Mouth and the hOrns of that there beast...
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
Poor damn Colorado.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Their former coach working on giving them some company down there.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
We are going to have an epic showdown vs OSU.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
MSU is worst than Stanford and they won 11 games last year. Wow.
OSU, Georgia and UM are in a league of their own. Surprised to see Illinois close to Alabama. LSU is playing better ball off late. We know purple man can coach.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
What do you get when you induct a New Englander to the Bayou family?
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
Always funny/absurd/pathetic.
Crawfish Kelly such a fraud.
At least he didn't kill a student there - yet.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
I'm surprised they did not have to use a logarithmic scale to fit Iowa's offense on this chart.
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
I posted this in another thread, but being Iowa-related it's apropos here too:
https://twitter.com/ramzy/status/1578487248797908993?s=20&t=xw6RQvHzN-xIQIH973m96A
(If it's not obvious, and it is, I don't know how to imbed a tweet.)
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
I was hoping Jedd would do better at Arizona. Illinois is starting to be a concern.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
Yeah. Brent is doing well. I guess he will have some great seasons similar to Wisconsin. QB play has been his problem for a long time and I don't see him changing that recruiting or game planning strategy.
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
It's Bert.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
:) I really don't know how I typed that. Can't blame auto spell.
October 23rd, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Illinois beat Iowa 9-6 at home I'm not too concerned about them. The only thing to actually be concerned about is the fact that it's the game before osu
October 24th, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
Lost to Indiana and beat Iowa in a field goal/punting contest.... Is IL that much better, or is the west that much worse?
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Bret beilema deserves the ap coach of the year award already.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
Still a little premature. Lots of B1G West coaches have looked great through October, then watched their teams fall apart in November. In the last few years, Brohm at Purdue, Fleck at Minnesota, and Chryst at Wisconsin all had their teams in position to win the division and blew it down the stretch. Let's see if Bielema can get to 9 or 10 wins this year before we say he deserves awards. I wouldn't be shocked to see Illinois upset in one or two of their next three games.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
Is the idea here that the most efficient team has the longest slope line in +x and +y? It's a great graphic, BTW.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
No, the idea is to be as close to the upper right of the graph as possible. A too high or too low of a slope suggests that one phase is much better than the other.
the issue with the graph is that the axes are not equal. According to this we are the most efficient D and OSU is the most efficient O, but OSU’s offensive score is much higher than our defensive score. Due to the hash marks on the graph, it doesn’t look as far apart as it should.
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
I am not cackling with knowing glee about Illinois sitting on Alabama's spot.
October 23rd, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
Can the fancy stats adequately control for the stank ass nature of the big ten west? I mean who is the best offense that illinois has played? Minny rb cleared 100 yards on them with only 15 carries in a game when Morgan was knocked out and Indiana qb threw for 330 (granted on 50 attempts) but he only threw for 200 on our d with similar attempts.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
I'm not chalking up Illinois as a loss yet myself--I think there's a strong chance we do to them what we did to Iowa. But I do much prefer when Lovie Smith's facial hair was the main event vs the Illini.
The plus is that we potentially can take care of two ranked teams in consecutive weeks (then a 3rd in the B1G CCG) right when it matters most. That could be enough to vault the Wolverines into a #1 seed.
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:01 PM ^
They are opponent adjusted, but important to note that this is not a game prediction model. Something like SP+ would be the better way to look at it from a "who will win this game" perspective.
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
We play well balanced, complimentary football.
Our offense helps our defense stay fresh through ball control and generally having the lead in the second half - allowing the D-line to pin its ears back and pass rush, but our run D is solid as well early in the game.
I'm not sold on OSU's defense. They've played nobody that can run it down their throats or threaten them with a decent ball control passing game. Their offense is, well, stellar when they can pass all over the field to their first round NFL wide receivers. They still have the sense of a soft team.
I like UM, again, on a cold, blustery day - this year in the toilet bowl.