JonnyHintz

December 5th, 2016 at 6:52 AM ^

Yup. Lewis lacks the ideal size that the NFL covets in corners. He's simply not big enough to be able to cover the bigger WRs of the league, which limits his value. His best position is going to be at nickel in the NFL, which isn't exactly a position that gets first round grades.

Jake Butt is an excellent receiving TE. But he lacks the blocking to be a complete TE and doesn't have the speed to make up for that deficiency. Both are solid players, but their intangibles don't measure up to the typical NFL first round grades.

A2toGVSU

December 5th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^

I don't think you know what intangibles are. All the things you mentioned, size for JD, speed for Butt, might keep them out of the first round. Those things are measurable. They are tangible. The intangibles are not quantitative measurments. We all know that there is a good chance those guys don't get drafted in the first round, and if they slip to the second or third, there is a great chance they both outperform those draft grades. Then, you can point to their intangibles: competitiveness, work ethic, and will to win.

Yo_Blue

December 5th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^

you'd be surprised that Jake Butt is projected in the 28 slot of the first round by draftsite.com.  Peppers is #5 to the Jets.  Taco is the 3rd pick in the 2nd round (35th overall) with Wormley 56th in the same round.  Lewis drops to the 3rd round to San Fran.

uncle leo

December 5th, 2016 at 9:34 AM ^

A great all-around type guy. But, is he really worth the #5 pick? If teams are looking to use hiim mostly as a linebacker, he's got some serious concerns about his ability to cover and tackle in open space. Re-watching some of the Iowa game, the dude flat out arm tackled over and over again and had a ton of trouble getting to the RB.

How many guys in the NFL really excel at that "everything" type game? When you get to the next level, you better be flipping exceptional at one specific thing. So at the end of the day, is a team going to be spending a top 5 pick on someone who's really good at punt returns? Kick returns are null in the NFL.

Michigan4Life

December 5th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

aren't the same as what NFL thinks.  Jake Butt is stuck in a deep TE class and isn't an explosive athlete like other TEs are (Engram, Howard, Leggett, etc.). 

Taco is likely going to be the first Michigan defender drafted and from what I've been hearing, he's almost a lock to go top 15. 

lhglrkwg

December 4th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^

I'm kinda surprise Cole is an option to jump to the NFL. He's been good, but I thought he'd need another year or two before the NFL was really interested

robpollard

December 5th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^

His quote, "All (that having a lot of) money makes possible is for you to stop worrying about money. Then you have freedom to live your life."



It's why college kids like Andrew Luck can come back for a 4th year -- the media prattled on about his love of architecture and his degree at Stanford, but he could come back b/c his dad is a well-off former NFL player/current big-time AD. He didn't have to worry about money.



So...with that in mind, hopefully Mo Hurst Jr has a good relationship with his dad, who I would guess made some nice money in the NFL. But for Cole, I have no idea of his money situation; I think more important is the fact he does not seem NFL-ready and does not seem like he'd be a Day 1 or even Day 2 draft pick, right now.

The financial reward is great and I love the life I have, but all money makes possible is for you to stop worrying about money. Then you have freedom to live your life.

Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/p/paul_stanley.html
The financial reward is great and I love the life I have, but all money makes possible is for you to stop worrying about money. Then you have freedom to live your life.

Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/p/paul_stanley.html

Lancer

December 4th, 2016 at 9:06 PM ^

Mo Hurst is NFL ready. I think he may be undervalued in the draft due to the limited number of snaps he gets. Next year, he will get more opportunities. Mason Cole is not NFL ready in my eyes and would benefit from an extra year.

The Fan in Fargo

December 4th, 2016 at 11:24 PM ^

I agree and am feeling optimism tonight. That's a first huh boys? I like this offensive line next year if... they land a few of these big fish recruits they are looking at. All I want for xmas this year is a kick ass running attack next season with young stud offensive lineman and running backs. That includes Najeee Harris. Please Jim make this happen!

FrankMurphy

December 5th, 2016 at 11:42 AM ^

We're not losing Drevno this year. He's too smart to take the SJSU job. And I haven't heard his name mentioned in connection with any other jobs. He's not homesick enough to take an effective paycut just to be back on the West Coast. I know he'll get his shot and that he's not ours to keep, but I'm fairly certain that he'll be back in 2017.

RobSk

December 5th, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^

certain we take a substantial step back in the o-line next year. Assuming for a moment that true freshmen are very unlikely to help, we're losing three starters (RG, LG, RT). I think Onwenu is the only guy on the roster with a substantial shot to replace a player (RG?) and be roughly as good.

I wrote an absurdly long email about this to some friends recently. Probably firmly in the tldr category, but what the heck..Summary-

If Cole stays, and is at Center:

LT - Newsome

LG - Bredesen

C   - Cole

RG  - Onwenu

RT  -  JBB/Ulizio

If he moves to RT:

LT - Newsome

LG - Bredesen

C   - Kugler

RG  - Onwenu

RT  -  Cole

This, of course, assumes Newsome is healthy.

      Rob

========

Lots of good material on mgoblog, but some of the most interesting is how effective linemen (especially OL) are as their careers progress. Freshmen OL are rarely (very rarely) of any use whatsoever. In the last 5 years, Michigan has had two guys that were able to play any substantial snaps as true freshmen and be of value, and really, only one was a starter who was decent (Mason Cole). You're talking a lot of guys, and only two (the other is Ben Bredesen this year) were of any value. Bredesen filled in after multiple injuries, but was pretty mediocre to poor. Which (btw) predicts that he will probably be an excellent OL in the future, but he was not that as a freshman.  Why do I stress this? Because it is HIGHLY unlikely that any OL that we recruit for next year (and we're in on some excellent ones, though none are committed yet) will be of value in next years line.



For information's sake, there are currently 4 (!) guys committed to UM as offensive tackles. One 4* and 3 3*. I see no chance that any of the currently committed guys play useful snaps next year. None are as good as Cole/Bredesen.



This link is one I'm leaning on for some of the remaining talk.



Depth Chart by class



It just so happens that the only guys we have back next year that played substantial snaps are Mason Cole (average 4*, 2017 Senior), Ben Bredesen (very high 4*, 2017 Sophomore), and maybe Grant Newsome (high 4*, 2017 Junior). I say maybe Newsome because he had a knee injury this year that took him out for the year. Not just any knee injury, but one that had him *in the hospital* for 38 days. It's questionable whether he ever plays again, much less is an effective OL at the most important spot, left tackle.



Let's assume we get lucky and Newsome is healthy and back to full strength. We'd probably do:



LT - Newsome

LG - Bredesen (he played there this year)

C   - Cole

RG  - ??

RT  - ??



Who else is out there who might take one of the remaining (at minimum) two slots?



Tackles: We need to replace Erik Magnuson, who played RT. While not a great player, Magnuson is projected to go in the 5th round of the draft, so that makes him a solid to good college tackle.



    Juwann Bushnell-Beatty - JBB was a mediocre 3* project guy who is going to be a junior next year.  In 2014/2015/2016, he's been a non-factor. They tried him at LT when Newsome went down, but it was a disaster. That's in his third year in the program. There is literally 0 chance that JBB will be better than Magnuson (RT) or Braden (who moved from guard to play the remaining games at LT) was this year.



    Nolan Ulizio - Ulizio was a 2* tackle that Harbaugh grabbed in the month after he took over, so will be a junior. He has played mop-up time the last two years, and has never had his name mentioned in a UFR. The best thing I can say about Ulizio is that he's a big guy that Jim Harbaugh wanted on his football team. No other signs that you would ever want him as a starter on a big time college football offensive line. It would be an amazing upset if Nolan Ulizio was as good in 2017 as Magnuson or Braden.



 Patrick Kugler - High 4* who will be a senior in 2017.. It's conceivable that Kugler could replace Cole at center, and Cole could move to RT. Or Cole goes to LT and Newsome to RT. I think Newsome is a more natural LT.  I don't think Cole/Kugler/Newsome would be better than Cole/Magnuson/Newsome, so again, no upgrade here.



That's it. Nobody else recruited as a tackle. Ben Bredesen has played LT briefly, and it didn't go well, so they swapped him with Braden to his natural position, guard. So either one of the two guys above takes over as RT, or it's a freshman.



Guards: We need to replace our RG, Kyle Kalis. This year, Kalis was a good to very good RG, consistently among the most effective run and pass blockers according to the UFRs and to PFF.  He's projected to go 6th round.



   David Dawson - Dawson will be a senior (2013 middling 4* recruit) who has basically never played meaningful snaps. Given our line play in 2014, the fact that he couldn't crack the line in his sophomore year is pretty scary. I don't think it's as clear that he would be a disaster as JBB, but again, he's going to be a senior, and he doesn't ever play. This indicates something about his skill relative to the guys who are playing.  Expecting him to be an upgrade over Kalis is not reasonable.

 

   Mike Onwenu - Onwenu is the best news here. He will be a sophomore in 2017. He's an absolute monster physically, and was a high 4* recruited by every major program, much like Bredesen. He's actually played some as OG and on the d-line occasionally this year. Best case, I think it's possible that he's as good as a sophomore as Kalis was as a senior. It's REALLY hard to imagine him being better in 2017 than Kalis in 2016, though it's easy to imagine him far surpassing Kalis in 2018/19.



 Stephen Spanellis - High 3* who will be a sophomore in 2017. Very, very large. Not highly regarded, but is a Harbaugh guy. It would not be awful if Spanellis played, but it would mean the ceiling for RG was lowered substantially from Onwenu. I can't imagine Spanellis being a superior RG to Kalis in 2017, or anywhere close to as good.



Patrick Kugler - High 4* who will be a senior in 2017 - Kugler has seen more snaps in replacing injured guys in non-garbage time than Dawson, but he is another guy who hasn't really played in 3 years in the program. He was highly regarded, but just never beat anyone out. If he was going to be a superior RG to Kyle Kalis, then why didn't he do it this year?



So IMO, rational best case (where a freshman isn't magically excellent) in 2017 is this:



LT - Newsome

LG - Bredesen (he played there this year)

C   - Kugler

RG  - Onwenu

RT  -  Cole

 

I just don't see any chance for that line to as good as 2016, much less significantly superior. We're replacing 3 seniors, 2 of which will surely go to the NFL with 2 promising sophomores and a not at all promising senior in Kugler. Could this line (with 2017 recruits replacing Kugler/Cole) be better in 2018 than the 2016 line. YES. But not in 2017.



Also possible:



LT - Newsome

LG - Bredesen (he played there this year)

C   - Cole

RG  - Onwenu

RT  -  JBB/Ulizio



Eeek.



If you see Dawson beat out Onwenu, then things are even worse. If Newsome is done, and we need to replace two tackles, then we're taking a flyer on a true freshman, and things are MUCH worse.

bronxblue

December 4th, 2016 at 9:25 PM ^

Cole I'd be surprised if he left, as centers aren't in high demand and he's not necessarily an elite option at either guard or tackle.  Might as well stick around.  Hurst could go pro, but I'd like to see where he grades out at.  From the little I've seen, he's a top-10 tackle, but that might mean 3-4th round, which isn't a sure thing.  

JonnyHintz

December 5th, 2016 at 6:58 AM ^

The thing is, versatility is in high demand. Cole has shown he can play tackle, guard, and center, and play them all pretty well. With the NFL rosters limited to such a small number, an OL that you can plug in at any position and have him be competent is a HUGE advantage. Even if he's just a backup, there's immense value in a utility offensive lineman for any NFL team.

Night_King

December 4th, 2016 at 9:36 PM ^

If Hurst comes back he's going to make himself an early round guy. Maybe late 1st/2nd rounder. He was fantastic in limited snaps. Always the first one off the line and into the backfield.




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Gucci Mane

December 4th, 2016 at 9:46 PM ^

Hurst wants to come back. Have talked to him personally. He loves Michigan and knows coming back he could play himself into first round next year as he will get many more snaps.