Michigan in the homestretch in basketball - Big 10 Seeding

Submitted by StephenRKass on

Michigan is in the home stretch of the basketball season.

Remaining games:

  • @ Minnesota
  • @ Rutgers
  • vs. Purdue
  • @ Northwestern
  • @ Nebraska

It is brutal to end with so many road games, but that's life, and they have the chance to prove themselves. Interestingly, I think it is easily in the realm of possibility for Michigan to win their remaining road games, and lose at home to Purdue.

Northwestern is likely to lose to Purdue. If Northwestern also loses to Michigan, Michigan would be ahead of them with an 11 - 7 record, by virtue of head to head record.

Minnesota is in a free fall. It is very unlikely for them to win @ MD and @ WI. If we beat them tomorrow, we will pass them as well.

Michigan State is always tough. However, with the loss of Harris today, I can't see them beating Wisconsin (at Breslin) or @ MD.

The ball is in Michigan's court. Win 4 of their remaining games and lose to Purdue, and they still end up in the top 4 seeding, with a double bye.

It is impossible for Michigan to pass up Purdue, Wisconsin, or Maryland. However, Michigan is peaking at the right time. We just saw them beat Wisconsin. I don't think, with a double bye, that it would be impossible for Michigan to win the Big 10 Tourney. If all our starters plus Duncan Robinson are hot, and Xavier and Donnal can give guys a breather, we can manage even in a short tourney where depth and exhaustion become critical.

If Michigan somehow won the Big 10 Tourney, and lost only to Purdue, their record would be 24 - 10. And that would lead to a pretty high seeding in the NCAA Tourney . . . 4 - 6.

Yeah, and if pigs had wings, they would fly. Still, I think this scenario is quite realistic. The keys:

  • Stay healthy
  • For 5 starters plus Robinson to stay hot
  • For Donnal and Xavier to be able to contribute 10 - 15 minutes a game.
  • For the team to really work together on defense.

Wilson and Wager are really coming into their own. Rahkman has played some great defense. Walton is finishing his career great. And Irvin "appears" to finally be out of his slump.

jmblue

February 18th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^

Win 4 of their remaining games and lose to Purdue, and they still end up in the top 4 seeding, with a double bye.

That's a solid enough plan, but I'm greedy - I don't want to concede any game. Purdue is almost certainly our toughest opponent but it is at home, on Senior Night.

jmblue

February 18th, 2017 at 10:12 PM ^

We've got to be ready for that trip to Lincoln at the end of the season.  The most dangerous games to play are against losing opponents, where a loss kills your RPI.   Nebraska has been an enigma, winning at Maryland, IU and OSU while losing most of their other games.  That game and Rutgers are the two we've got to get.

 

J.

February 19th, 2017 at 2:57 AM ^

That's not how the RPI works.  The RPI considers your home, neutral, and away records, and who you played, but not which games you won.  There is zero difference to your RPI if you win at Minnesota and lose at Nebraska or if you lose at Minnesota and win at Nebraska.

In fact -- given that you were going to play both of them anyway -- from a purely RPI standpoint, it's more damaging to lose at home vs. Purdue than it would be to lose at Rutgers (!).  This is one of the reasons that the RPI isn't well-regarded by statistical-minded analysts.  Michigan is currently 14-3 at home, 2-0 on neutral courts, and 1-6 on the road.  Home wins and road losses are worth 0.6; neutral site wins/losses are 1.0; home losses and road wins are worth 1.4.  So... that's an adjusted record of 11.8-7.8, or 0.6020.

Now, let's compare what happens.  If we beat Purdue but lose to Rutgers, we add 0.6 to each column, for a record of 12.4-8.4, or 0.5962.  On the other hand, if we lose to Purdue and beat Rutgers, we add 1.4 to each column, for a record of 13.2-9.2, or 0.5893.  The adjusted winning percentage makes up 25% of the RPI, so Michigan would gain 0.0017 RPI points by losing to Rutgers (vs. Purdue), if you assume they were going to lose one or the other.

TL;DR: For teams that are over .500, the RPI punishes home losses more than it rewards road wins.

StephenRKass

February 19th, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^

Lactose intolerant. Sorry to hear that. I am so glad to have no food allergies of any kind. My daughter has celiac disease. Food allergies are not fun.

I do like my coffee various ways . . . sometimes black, sometimes with cream. Coffee is just a good drink imhe.

Maize in Cincy

February 18th, 2017 at 10:09 PM ^

They could go 4-1 and just as easy 1-4.  The game tomorrow will provide some clarity.  If they can go on the road and keep up the intensity/focus on a fairly quick turnaround I think you are right.  If they lose tomorrow that's a bad sign.  I wouldn't say Minnesota is in a free fall though.

The key seems to be keeping Mo and DJ out of foul trouble in the first half.  If they pick up early fouls they have to play scared and the whole team seems to follow their lead.

jmblue

February 18th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^

IIRC, we were down about 10 in the second half and then he hit two threes in a row to jump-start the run.  I think it was Manny Harris who delivered the dagger at the end.

The other Minnesota game that jumps out at me is from 2011 (I think), where Zack Novak hit a big 3, then stole an entry pass to Ralph Sampson III (who had a huge height advantage), throwing it upcourt to Darius Morris for the clinching layup.

EDIT: Found it.

 

stephenrjking

February 18th, 2017 at 10:51 PM ^

I don't want to get carried away with optimism (just call me "Equivocating Eeyore") and there's a long way still to go.

But this post immediately brings to mind the inevitable scene of MSU fans thoughtfully debating whether a run to MSG in the NIT is better than a hypothetical Michigan first-weekend NCAA tournament exit. 

And it makes me smile.

MGlobules

February 19th, 2017 at 6:21 AM ^

it's a fan's irrational lot to believe their team should win every game whereas guys get the flu, get hurt, and even just plain f up like the rest of us. There's four games, by my count, that we shoulda won this year, but probably a lot of teams can say that most years. I think taking on the D in a new way this year kinda muddied the waters, but may pay off down the stretch. 

stephenrjking

February 18th, 2017 at 10:48 PM ^

This is about where this team has, at other times, pivoted from burgeoning success to an embarrassing, hopeless loss. One step forward, one step back, etc etc.

Hopefully not this weekend, as this is a very winnable road game against a decent team. If Michigan wins, I'll still be thinking about the possibility of a headscratching loss coming down the pike, but this would be a pretty significant win. 

Let's not get too optimistic, though. A 4-1 record involves either upsetting Purdue (quite a stretch) or going 4-0 on the road only a week after winning the first true road game of the entire season. There's a lot that can still go wrong here.

StephenRKass

February 18th, 2017 at 11:01 PM ^

Yep, none of us really know. Some how, I am believing that the light has gone on, and Michigan is going to play tougher. The Illinois "white collar" term stung. But I also think that just playing has really helped Wagner and Wilson. And Wilson is healthy. And Walton is taking charge of the team. And Irvin got his stroke back. And Rahkman seems to have really embraced junkyard defense. And Robinson is playing better D, and so is Donnal. And the game is slowing down for Xavier, and he is getting in some quality minutes. So while I don't know, I am believing that the team has turned a key corner.

stephenrjking

February 18th, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^

They've definitely played better. Maybe the OSU game is more just a blip in an otherwise good run of play (that loss at MSU wasn't embarrassing or anything) rather than a continuation of weak play from earlier in the season.

But I tend to think that the team still basically is what it has been: A good but streaky offensive team that lives and dies by the long ball, a team that is improving defensively but still very shakey. That, to me, is a formula for a couple of relatively frustrating losses down the stretch. 

I'd love to be wrong. A Michigan team that wins 4 out of 5, does some damage before bowing out in the semis or the final of the BTT, and screams into the NCAA tournament riding a red-hot Derrick Walton is a team that a lot of other schools would be terrified to play against. And that is on the table. I'm just not sure this group of players and coaches is actually capable of being that team.

J.

February 19th, 2017 at 3:24 AM ^

Michigan does not live and die by the long ball on offense.

In 7 B1G wins: Michigan is 61/150: 40.7%, or about 9/21 per game.

In 6 B1G losses: Michigan is 57/152: 37.5%, or about 9.5/25 per game.

(In their non-conference losses, Michigan made 14/26 vs UCLA, 10/27 vs. Va Tech, and 2/26 vs South Carolina).

On the other hand, here is the breakdown for 2-point shooting:

In 7 B1G wins: Michigan is 126/214, or 58.9% -- about 18/31 per game.

In 6 B1G losses: Michigan is 92/187, or 49.2% -- about 15/31 per game.

When Michigan's offense is playing well, by spacing the floor, not only do they get good looks at 3 point-shots, they also open up the interior for cuts and the pick-and-roll.

However, even when they're not playing well, Michigan's offense hasn't been that bad.  They've been held below one point per possession twice this year -- a win vs Texas, and the awful game at South Carolina.  In the losses to Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State, they were between 1 and 1.02 points per possession -- but the losses to Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, and UCLA were all over 1.1 points per possession.  Against UCLA, they scored 1.3 points per possession and lost by 18!

Yes, the offense is streaky, within the course of a game.  Basketball is a game of runs.  But, it does not "die by the 3."  The best indicator of how well Michigan's offense is playing is their 2-point percentage.

In reply to by J.

MGlobules

February 19th, 2017 at 6:34 AM ^

that the Beilein offense, if he has all his dream players on the floor, involves every player on the floor being a threat, not because they're all NBA players but because they know the system. If the guard play works out next year we may see something like that.

Given that we can't outright cheat like the top 6-10 perennially dominant teams--and given the losses to injury and the NBA--I think we achieve at about an appropriate level. Maybe we can do a bit better, but there's a ceiling there. A lot of fans just don't accept losses, period, but given the constraints, I think Belein gives us fun teams to contemplate. Yes, some players fail to light it up, or take a while to, but I believe that goes for most recruiting and most schools; outside of Ann Arbor, the pundits revere his ability to find players. If you look at the way fans dogged GRIII, or Chad Henne for that matter (to look at another sport) you have to recognize that there's. . . a lot of anonymous meanness finding a home on message boards. (And this is of course not criticizing Stephen King, whose post brought your response.)

In a way it doesn't matter, because we're going to see what Beilein can do with at least a couple more years here, and I'm wishing the program all the luck in the world. 

In reply to by J.

stephenrjking

February 19th, 2017 at 5:14 PM ^

Good post, I stand corrected.

I'm not one of the guys who thinks Beilein's system is bad or overrated; just that there are games it isn't working well. You're bettering me with facts.

Michifornia

February 18th, 2017 at 11:03 PM ^

We could easily win 2 out of the last 5 or even yes SWEEP all 5????  I think we can win 4 or 5 and punch our ticket.  Playing well right now.  Just gotta keep the momentum going.  Irvin's game was a fluke so I'm hoping he still tries to play a defense first role and only cut to the basket.  Let Walton, Mo, MAAR and Robinson take the bulk of the shots.

We play with any kind of intensity, we have a legit chance to win each of the final B1G games.  Should be interesting.

GO BLUE!!

allintime23

February 18th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^

I think at worst we go 3-2 with two wins in the conference tournament. This team can be a dangerous match up again come march. If we make the sweet sixteen some how JB will have earned his pay. Walton sure stepped up and really turned around the season.

URNotGuilty

February 19th, 2017 at 12:21 AM ^

Hoping for the best, but I watched OSU v NEB n MSU v PUR today and every one of our games. Purdue will be hard to stop in the low post, with 2 tough low post players. Nebraska and Minnesota can play with anyone, and improbable shit happens: Nebraska was down 5 with 25 seconds left and won. Assuming we take Rutgers, lose to Purdue. Minnesota NW Nebraska, are road games, of which, we have won 1 all season. I just dont see us winning three consecutive tough road games, and four total. I'd be happy with 3-2, elated with 4-1.

Ty Butterfield

February 19th, 2017 at 1:04 AM ^

A lot can still happen. Team has been playing better but I think some of us are a little skeptical and keep waiting for the bottom to fall out. Michigan could still miss the dance and it sucks to be still sweating on the bubble this late in the season. Beat Minnesota and I think they will win enough other games to get in. Lose
to Minnesota and it is not all over but really puts Michigan behind the eight ball. Still, seeing Michigan get in the dance and Staee in the NIT would be beyond awesome.

StephenRKass

February 19th, 2017 at 1:48 AM ^

That's fair. It really is the lot of a Michigan fan. Why get your hopes up only to have them dashed. I don't blame you at all. That really is how I have rooted quite often. Honestly, that's how I feel about Michigan football vs. OSU. Until the football team, you know, actually beats Ohio State, I won't fully believe.

However, for some odd reason, I am "all in" for the basketball team.

  • There are six legitimate threats to hit the three point shot. And Donnal takes threes on occasion as well. This doesn't allow teams to cheat by leaving anyone on Michigan open. With six scoring threats anywhere on the floor, Michigan can weather one, maybe two guys being "cold," and just feed the hot hands.
  • There are two very agile big guys (Wagner, Wilson) who are able to create. Watching Wilson drive the basket a couple games ago was incredible. They are not easy for bigger but slower guys to defend. Wilson has gotten better as he has healed up from some kind of ankle sprain.
  • In addition to the bigs, I am very comfortable with Walton, Irvin, and Simpson driving to the basket. And Walton has really excelled in taking over a game.
  • Robinson has gotten better at defense. He can cut to the basket. And he is such a strong 3 point weapon.
  • Donnal has finally started contributing on defense, without being a total liability.
  • Simpson has also started contributing. He actually is hitting buckets.
  • The sting of Illinois' comments (white collar team) has really brought the guys together. And there is some amount of shame in losing to OSU. And there is so little time left in the season, I just don't see play regressing. Michigan can't afford to lose if they want to go to the NCAA tourney They are letting it all hang out and playing hard.

Yes, we will know a lot more tomorrow. But if Michigan is able to win against Minnesota like they did against Indiana, or even win MORE convincingly, I think we'll know what we have for the balance of the year.