rockydude

September 25th, 2011 at 1:44 PM ^

I don't think that the game was close because Illinois is bad, I think the game was close because WMU is good. I know I am probably pumping up WMU in part, being a homer, but they really impressed me. I think they could beat several teams in the Big Ten this year, were they given the opportunity to play them.

I guess while I am at it, I should also say that I think SDSU is pretty darn good, and will win some conference games this year. 

After really impressing me against MSU, ND came back down to earth a little, but still beat Pitt. Pitt is an odd team in that they tend to lose some easy games but win some tough ones. Let's just wait and see how good ND really is.

 

Overall, I think Michigan has beaten some very good teams already. Our cupcakes this year weren't nearly as easy as some might suggest. I think our #19 is legitimate so far.

Drill

September 25th, 2011 at 5:28 PM ^

This year, "could beat several Big Ten teams" really doesn't mean much with how horrid the Big 10 is this year (especially at the bottom).  Tons of teams could beat Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, probably Penn State, possibly Iowa, probably a Persa-less Northwestern, apparently almost Illinois, which (mixed with OSU's performance against Toledo) means possibly even OSU on a lucky day.

Logan88

September 25th, 2011 at 2:01 PM ^

Illinois is not in our division, they are in the Leaders.

I think MSU will finish second in the Legends division (our division). Their defense is playing lights out right now.

My projections for how things will shake out based on the first 4 games of the season:

Legends

  1. Nebraska
  2. MSU
  3. Iowa
  4. Michigan
  5. N'Western
  6. Minnesota

Leaders

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Ohio State
  3. Illinois
  4. Penn State
  5. Purdue
  6. Indiana

 

justingoblue

September 25th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^

As for your standings, Nebraska is good, but MSU just got blasted by a team we beat and Iowa does not look good at all. Pitt running a poor mans Michigan offense (though Graham is better than any of our backs) put 27 on their defense and should have done much more. I wouldn't be surprised to see us put up 35+ on Iowa this year.

justingoblue

September 25th, 2011 at 2:29 PM ^

They not only lost, they got destroyed. The first good defensive line they faced completely caved their offensive line (53 yards rushing not counting -24 from their number 3, 4 and 5 rushers) and we have a solid D line. I'd say that us holding pretty well against ND and Sparty getting blown out the next week is highly relevant, but that's just me.

glewe

September 25th, 2011 at 4:41 PM ^

If you don't recall, for 3 quarters, we got destroyed too. The difference is that MSU got destroyed for 4. Away, not a big and entirely memorable game.

I'm with Tom from AA here. MSU is going to be one of our most challenging games on the schedule. I think you make a good point about their OL, and we do have the advantage there, but that is not going to be the determinant of the whole game.

justingoblue

September 25th, 2011 at 5:24 PM ^

I don't think MSU is an autowin. My initial comment was to the poster who still had us finishing in fourth place in the division behind Nebraska, MSU and Iowa. They have weaknesses (like we do) and they're not world beaters. I think their season will end up speaking for itself.

Also, I think it's fine to look at common opponents, especially when the games are two weeks apart and there were no glaring differences (ND still lost the turnover battle) or big injuries. I'm not saying that since 2010 SDSU laid a beatdown on 2010 Navy that 2011 Michigan would do the exact same, these are the same teams a week apart.

Logan88

September 25th, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^

MSU also held ND to 275 total yards of offense in South Bend, allowing only 3.6 ypc on the ground. That is the same ground attack that shredded our defense. A lot of people only look at the score of the ND-MSU game and assume that ND dominated but that simply wasn't the case.

Personally, I don't care who MSU has played, they are only giving up 172 ypg to their opponents. That is tremendous defense even if you are playing FAU and CMU. I think many posters are simply allowing their hatred of MSU (and the frustration of having lost the last 3 meetings) to cloud their judgment re: Sparty. Yes, they can't run the ball for sh*t but their defense and passing offense are both very good.

jmblue

September 25th, 2011 at 3:22 PM ^

But - having watched that game - I think that yardage total is deceptive, too. ND's offense lost two possessions because of the kickoff return and the fumbled punt.  From what I saw, they moved the ball quite well for three quarters.  In the fourth, they sat on the ball.  Before their field goal at the end, they were just having their QB go down to center the ball.

MSU probably is a good defensive team, but the ND game is the only one of their first four that offers any kind of insight and I don't think they played as well that day as the stat sheet suggested.  FAU and CMU are two of the worst teams in the country (WMU beat CMU by 30 points) and YSU is a bad FCS team.

Logan88

September 25th, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^

Iowa's conference schedule is VERY favorable. That is why I picked them to finish ahead of UM.

Iowa's B1G schedule:

  1. @PSU - Iowa OWNS PSU--they have won 9 of the last 11 meetings
  2. Northwestern -- Conversely, Iowa struggles with N'Western...odd
  3. Indiana -- blowout win for Iowa
  4. @Minnesota -- Minny is turrible...Iowa should win (but they actually lost in 2010!)
  5. Michigan -- tough game for both, but in Iowa City, I think Iowa wins a close one
  6. Michigan State -- Iowa has fared well against MSU in Iowa City
  7. @Purdue -- Purdue is not as bad as IU and Minny...but they are almost as bad
  8. @Nebraska -- definite loss for Iowa

Should win: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue

Toss-up (Iowa favored): PSU, Michigan, MSU

Toss-up (Iowa dog): N'Western (crazy...but look at the history)

Should lose: Nebraska

You'll notice: no Wisconsin, no OSU, no Illinois and they play the 3 worst teams in the conference in Indy, Minny and Purdue. I think Iowa will finish 5-3, possibly even 6-2 against that schedule.

 

freernnur5

September 25th, 2011 at 3:08 PM ^

While for some of those teams history may favor them, Iowa has fallen hard as opposed to last year. First off they lost a lot of defensive linemen to the NFL. Secondly, how many running backs have been kicked off the team? Lastly while Vandenberg is ok I think Stanzi was a better quarterback for them.

 

In their system it is all about running the ball and the QB playing management and with their running back situation all messed up that really hurts them. I think they will finish 4th behind us and MSU. 

Logan88

September 25th, 2011 at 3:33 PM ^

Vandenberg has been very good in Iowa's first four games:  63% completion, 274 passing ypg and 10 TD's to only 1 INT. Will those numbers hold up over an entire season? Perhaps not, but he has been outstanding thus far.

Iowa's defense is not up to their usual standards (~24 ppg) but their offense is chugging along quite nicely. They are currently 3rd in the conference in ppg at 37.8.

bluebyyou

September 25th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^

The game next week between Wiscy and Nebraska will tell a ton about both teams.  Wiscy has played four weak teams to start the season. It should be interesting watching Wiscy against a real D.  I watched the second half of the WMU - Illinois game.  WMU gave Illinois everything they could handle.

freernnur5

September 25th, 2011 at 3:09 PM ^

That defense is scary good (and always has been) and the offense finally seems to be producing somewhat. This is a very good team. In my mind, the winner of LSU v. Alabama wins the SEC and makes the NC game. 

That is unless all the SEC teams murder each other and no one emerges unscathed to make the NC game.