Mich-OSU Common Opponent #1: Iowa
With Ohio St’s game against Iowa last Saturday, OSU and Michigan have their first common opponent. Certainly, we don’t want to get too wrapped up into the details of transitivity (though I have a tendency to go deep into the weeds); however, we can still summarize general comparisons as to how each team performed against a common opponent. Click the links below to view each team’s FancyStats box score against Iowa per Bill Connelly:
FancyStats box score of Michigan vs Iowa
FancyStats box score of Ohio State vs Iowa
Overall, the OSU & Michigan offenses probably had what will be their least productive output of the season against Iowa. Because Iowa.
Total yards were 360 & 327; yards/play of 5.8 & 5.0. Not a terribly big difference.
Michigan scored a TD on 30% of its possessions (3 of 10) and also went 3-and-punt on 30% of its possessions. OSU scored a TD on 5 of 16 possessions (31%), and although the box score shows that OSU only went 3-and-punt on 12.5% of possessions, that low percentage is masked by the fact that OSU went 3-and-FG twice, so the offense went 3-and-out four times (25%) and 5-and-out another time. So overall, not much difference in their overall performance.
The big difference is in how each team got the production they did, as we’ll see below. Michigan had a better Success Rate (55% to OSU’s 44%), but OSU had more explosive plays (11.3% explosive play rate to M’s 7.6%).
RUN OFFENSE
Michigan ran for 193 at 4.7 per rush, whereas Iowa stymied OSU’s run game. OSU got only 79 non-sack rush yards at 2.7 a pop. It’s been a long time since the Buckeyes had as poor a day running the ball as against Iowa. As you can see in the FancyStats box scores, most of OSU’s rushing numbers are in the red while most of Michigan’s are green. (red = below average; green = hooray!)
OSU got stuffed (0 yards or TFL) on 33% of attempts; Michigan only 14%. OSU had 28% of rushes go for 5+ yards (below average); Michigan got 5+ yards on 44% of carries (above average).
Run offense against Iowa: Very strong advantage to Michigan
PASS OFFENSE
This is where OSU had its success. They threw for 281 yards, 8.5 per pass attempt (including sacks); Michigan threw for 134 yards for 5.4 per pass attempt.
Michigan and Ohio St attacked Iowa via the pass very differently. Michigan liked to dink and dunk their way down the field to avoid the risk of disaster with a young QB (zero INT), and also contributed to the good Success Rate listed above (55%). OSU was a bit more aggressive (resulted in one pick, and one or two other opportunities for Iowa to get a pick early in the game), but, as was shown above, was also more explosive: Stroud averaged 14.3 yards per completion compared to Michigan’s 8.6 YPC. Even if we remove the 79-yard TD pass, Stroud still averaged 10.9 YPC, so the difference wasn’t due solely to one big play.
I’m sure if Michigan played Iowa at the end of the season (or even now) they might be more willing to throw downfield more often than they did when McCarthy was still settling in as the starter. But based on these numbers, it’s a somewhat strong advantage to OSU.
Pass offense against Iowa: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio State
RUN DEFENSE
Both defenses stuffed Iowa. Duh. Michigan allowed 66 yards for 3.3 per carry; OSU allowed 97 yards at 3.2 per. We’ll call it a wash. Look at both box scores for Iowa’s rushing stats: lots of red. Perhaps Iowa rushed slightly worse against OSU (stuffed 31% to 25%, and got 5+ yards 23% to 30%), but that’s not enough to declare a significant advantage.
Run defense against Iowa: Both were about equally effective
PASS DEFENSE
Iowa threw for 215 yards (including sacks) for 6.1 per pass attempt against Michigan. OSU stifled Iowa for 61 yards and only 2.1 YPA.
OSU generated more pressure (55% pressure rate to Michigan’s 37%), more sacks per dropback (17% to 11%), and got three interceptions.
I am curious to know what Michigan held Iowa to through three quarters. If we removed Iowa’s passing numbers that came in their 4th quarter drives that were rather meaningless, I’m sure Michigan’s pass defense numbers would look a lot better. However, OSU didn’t allow any of those late drives to Iowa. So I’m torn midway between wanting to remove Iowa’s 4th quarter passing against Michigan, and keeping it as is; a middle point is probably most appropriate.
Pass defense against Iowa: Strong advantage to Ohio State
TL;DR
- Run offense against Iowa: Very strong advantage to Michigan
- Pass offense against Iowa: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio State
- Run defense against Iowa: Both were about equally effective
- Pass defense against Iowa: Strong advantage to Ohio State
After Saturday, OSU and Michigan will have three common opponents.
There will have been six common opponents when Ohio State and Michigan meet.
It’s also worth noting that each common opponent also has the opposite home/road scenario. Every common opponent Michigan plays on the road, OSU has at home. And vice versa.
October 28th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
avatar not checking out. OP is so normal. would have a beer with. what is the world coming to?
October 28th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
I see you XM. I'm sure we'll connect sometime/somewhere.
October 28th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
To both of you. One of my close friends is a big OSU fan and we meet every year for the game. My son has had a bet with him every year since he was 9 (now 17) where the loser had to where the other team's jersey for a photo. He was also a big Browns fan that named his dog Cleveland. I'm a Raiders fan so I trained his dog to answer to Oakland at the time since they were a long way off from moving to Vegas.
My old GM is a big OSU fan too and a couple months ago he asked me to come train his new purchasing manager at his new dealership in Ohio and on the last day, I wore one of my Michigan polos on the last day I was training their employee for the fun of it. We have a good time going back and forth over The Game.
October 28th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
That's how they suck you in.
Don't do it man. Don't do it.
October 29th, 2022 at 1:54 AM ^
This a great post Chuck. But I sense that you wanted to get this in before your game tomorrow in case you don’t blow out PSU the same way.
October 28th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
So run the ball and control the clock vs OSU, like last year!! I kind of think this team may be built to do that!
October 28th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
So we want it to snow for The Game.
October 28th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
Don't forget the flu ;)
October 28th, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
I refuse to squint that hard
October 28th, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
Open in new tab.
October 28th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
I have a real hard time with these kind of transitive property prognostications when it comes to M/OSU because of how different the coaches are.
Remember that half of Iowa’s points came in a last minute, garbage time drive, so as far as Harbaugh was concerned, the game was in hand early, and he was totally happy turtling and getting out with a W.
Day plays a different game. He wants style points and the offense is the offense, so he will readily run up the score when he can.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
I acknowledge half-wishing to eliminate Iowa's 4th quarter drives. That's why I downgraded OSU's advantage a bit below what the stats actually showed.
This season Day has regularly kept the starters in the game at least through 3 quarters, often into the 4th, and generally about a series longer than I anticipate seeing the backups. The first team played into the 4th quarter against Iowa to continue to work on things that didn't work in their first 10 possessions.
October 28th, 2022 at 5:57 PM ^
And injuries seem to be more of a factor this year? At least I thought I read that somewhere.
October 28th, 2022 at 7:36 PM ^
Hey man. I read your post here before noticing who posted it. As I was reading, I had a couple moments where I thought "eh, this guy's homerism is skewing his judgement". So to see it was you, well that was nice!
However it goes down, this November has the potential to be one of the best Games ever. Both teams are really good, and slight mirror images of each other. I'm glad it's the last game, so JJ has more time to get settled.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Yep. And we were playing on the road at Kinnick where we hadn’t won since 2005, Harbaugh was winless at as a player & coach, and clearly spooked by referring to it as “the place where top 5 teams die”. Once we got to a 20-0 lead, it was time to just sit on the ball and cede yards to Iowa with a bend but don’t break to eat up time. We play that game very differently if it’s at the Big House and it’s rocking with a lead like that.
The only thing you can reasonably compare is the rushing offenses.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
I agree. While worthwhile in potentially pointing out the strengths and weakness of either team, it doesn't really speak to how they match up.
W/R to the pass defense efficiency, as well, I think that's the biggest red herring. Knowles plays an aggressive style of defense, which is something that made Iowa, who is literally bad at everything on Offense, much more befuddled and pathetic. I think UM could have used this method as well to great effect. But it was quite clear that UM's plan was to sit back and make Iowa drive the field to score. That form of defense is actually the exact correct way to play OSU, who struggles pounding the ball in once the field gets shorter, as Iowa easily showed. OSU is just no longer a power-based Offense. They cut apart grossly inferior teams, but can't easily close the last 20 yards against a good defense. Meanwhile, an aggressive defense, as Knowles has tended to employ, isn't necessarily what's best against UM's diverse running game, as Manny Diaz was kind enough to show. However, Knowles is a much better DC.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
He wants style points and the offense is the offense, so he will readily run up the score when he can.
And to get Stroud the Heisman
October 28th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
Good content my (rival) friend!
After this weekend are you going to do the same comparisons for the PSU and MSU games?
October 28th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Thanks $0.05.
I intend to take (make) the time to do each of the 6 common opponents, and then a final summary the week of The Game.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
You are a very welcome contributor to this website.
October 28th, 2022 at 9:56 PM ^
I like what you're doing here. Would be nice to see you do this every week that there is a common opponent. And maybe somehow find a way to chart them overall as they go along. The only snag for me is that caveats apply that can't be accurately charted using this methodology. Will read anyway.
October 28th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
Thanks for this. Pretty interesting. I personally find more value in the comparison against Iowa’s good defense vs their atrocious offense. Both OSU and Michigan have very good offenses, and seeing how they played against a strong defense is informative because OSU and Michigan also have strong defenses. On the other hand, I’m less persuaded by the performance against Iowas offense, because what OSU and Michigan will see when they face each other looks NOTHING like what they saw against Iowa. My main takeaway from watching OSU this year is their defense seems a lot more discipline. How that holds up against Michigan will be fun to see.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
Certainly, we don’t want to get too wrapped up into the details of transitivity
Narrator: He got too wrapped up into the details of transitivity.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
That's also why I wanted to provide a summary; to not stay stuck in the details but use the details to establish a generalization.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
This blog is all about overanalyzing small, flawed data sets. That's all you get with football.
October 28th, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
I enjoyed! Thanks Buckeye Chuck
October 28th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
i moved to ohio ~3 years ago for a new job.
almost all the buckeye faithful i have met are actually really good, down to earth, people. just quality genuine americans trying to live their lives. chuck here is one of them.
i still hate your stupid sports teams. go blue.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
OT, but what makes someone a "genuine American" and how can I spot and report the counterfeits?
October 28th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
I mean, it's defined in the dictionary as relating to people.
(of a person, emotion, or action) sincere
and how can I spot and report the counterfeits
ooohh good question. i think the CIA has more info on that than i do so maybe check with them?
October 28th, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
When my son is in the marching band he played at the Shoe. It was literally the only placed they ever played where people were throwing stuff and screaming at them. He vowed to never go back.
If they can't even show a modicum of respect to the band, then f 'em.
October 28th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
What's the intent behind using the word genuine here?
October 28th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^
There must be some non-genuine Americans out there as well...
October 28th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
the intent is to use the word as it is defined. words have meanings. i use words based on those meanings.
what's your intent behind asking me that? do you not use words based on what they actually mean? like, did you read my post and assign some random meaning to the word "genuine" and then do some mental gymnastics to come to some jacked up conclusion in your head based entirely on nothing, then think "omg he probably meant this fucked up thing that I just made up" and wanted to ask to be sure?
because that's kind of what it seems like.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Love it, BC. You’re one of the good ones on the rival team that is rational. If I see you down here in the 614 I’ll buy you a beverage of your choice. Still thoroughly dislike your favorite team, though.
Go Blue!
October 28th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Another thing to take into account is just play style. Michigan was breaking in a sophomore QB for his first road game. We were playing conservatively and to not turn the ball over. We wanted to get out in front, then control the game. OSU was not doing that. That's another reason why the transitive property does not apply in football
October 28th, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
I don’t understand repeatedly seeing this we’re conservative because we have a young QB take. We almost never throw the ball to any significant degree unless we have to. Who the QB is seems to have no effect on this.
October 28th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
In 4 BIG games, he's thrown 110 passes. Seems significant...
October 28th, 2022 at 10:45 PM ^
It’s not.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
The offensive styles are quite a bit different
OSU wants to throw bombs and quick striking scores, and they generally have the talent to do it. They'll go 80 yards in 6 plays in 2 minutes if you can't stop them.
Michigan wants to control the clock, and pound the running game, and they generally have the talent to do it. They'll go 80 yards in 14 plays in 7 minutes if you can't stop them.
This is going to result in shinier scores for OSU even if both OSU and UM were able to exert their will offensively against a mutual opponent. The real question is how well each is going to be able to exert against each other.
OSU/PSU should be interesting. Kind of expecting Frames to stack the box and leave his DBs on an island, given his apparent love for playing exactly the wrong defense against a given offense.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
OSU doesn't "throw bombs" very often. They have a short-to-medium passing attack that attacks open spaces and gets their playmakers into wide-open areas to eat up huge chunks. Then they try and run from that spread. They are a passing offense, and passing offenses never want to "throw bombs" or score quickly, because it's not sustainable or good for their defense. Good running teams are the ones that "throw bombs" more often, to try to do to keep the defense constrained and away from the line of scrimmage, where they're trying to run.
October 28th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
You mentioned the 3 picks but you didn't mention the 3 fumbles the Buckeyes got. Apparently Christmas came early in Columbus.
Which brings up another point, the Buckeyes got the Hawkeyes at home whereas Michigan played them on the road with their Kinnick powerup.
October 28th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
I did not mention the 3 fumbles; the 3 picks were mentioned specifically in reference to pass defense. Though one of the fumbles was on a sack.
Every common opponent Michigan and Ohio State have this season play in opposite home/road situations.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^
That's a bigger caveat with Iowa than anyone else. Although we'll see if Happy Valley has any magic up its sleeve. Not a white-out so that takes away some of the threat.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
I still think the fumbles are worth mentioning as they gave the Buckeyes short fields on 3 drives with the first being a very short field.
Although the teams common opponents don't have similar home and away venues it's certainly worth noting.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^
Fumbles (recovered, at least) are almost 100% based on luck. Doesn't seem to speak much to quality of the defense, and CB already mentioned they had many short fields.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
Short fields can come from bad punts or good returns but turnovers can be soul sucking for teams already at a talent disadvantage.
October 28th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
The Iowa defense wore down early at the Shoe. A lot of that had to do with the their pathetic offense and all of those turnovers.
The Buckeyes would have won comfortably anyway if that game was at Kinnick, but not by such a large margin.