MBB's Recent NCAA Tournament Success (and B1G's lack thereof)
As everyone already knows, Michigan has made it to five Sweet 16's over the last five NCAA Tournaments. In this timeframe, Michigan has made it to two Elite 8's, one Final 4, and a Title Game, pending the conclusion of this tournament.
In the same span of tournaments, the rest of the Big Ten COMBINED has made it to six Sweet 16's, two Elite 8's, one Final 4, and no Title Games. What's even more astonishing is that of those six Sweet 16's, four of them belong to Purdue. If you Ignore Michigan and Purdue, the Big Ten's performance in the tournament has been downright embarrassing (NSFW).
Michigan (and to a lesser extent Purdue) has singlehandedly kept the Big Ten afloat with post-season aspirations recently. Not "Mr. March" Tom Izzo. Not the OSU Empire. Not 2021 Big Ten Regular Season Champion* Loyola-Chic... err... Illinois.
The B1G has had some really good teams over the last few years too, but can't seem to get over the hump. I know it's been discussed at length, but to quote Kenan Thompson from SNL, "What's up with that?!"
I don't know about y'all, but I'm hoping for a Michigan-Purdue Title Game.
If you look at the last 6 tournaments, no B1G team except UM and Purdue has made the Sweet 16 more than once.
The sparty reign is OVER. In 5 of the last 6 tournaments, they have exited in either the 1st/play-in or 2nd round. We need to make sure recruits know this full well and this is not negative recruiting, but just the facts.
Plus, you can't think Izzo has that many years coaching left. He might be eight years younger than Coach K, but you have to think his apoplectic demeanor takes a toll on his health.
Anyway, love to see that the national media is starting to pick up on this as well...
I don't think it matters. Even without the results, Izzo's still got that status as a GOD among college basketball and the media. They'll slobber and have orgasms over him even when he puts up a 15 loss season. At one point this season, Sparty had lost 9 of 11 games and then once they beat Purdue on a late 3 pointer to end regulation, the media immediately started acting as if the previous 4 weeks had never happened and MSU was now among the Big Ten elite. It was ridiculous.
They'll pair up Izzo against coach K and act like it's some evenly matched, Bo vs. Woody, epic showdown you're about to watch when in reality, the coaches aren't even in the same time zone. And what is the all time record, 3-13 against Coach K all time?
Recruits are still going to go to him because Izzo can't take a crap without the media fawning all over him.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s extremely satisfying watching MSU get knocked out early, not having to watch Izzo constantly whining to the refs and acting like a complete fool, while the media gushes over him. I can’t stand him. But Izzo is a good coach- his longevity and tournament success support that. He’s also a huge turd.
MSU is going to have a strong team next year. Depending on who they have return, objectively, they will likely be the preseason B1G favorite.
We badly need shooters next season. Hopefully Juwan gets one in the portal, Houstan returns and improves, and Collins dramatically improves his shooting.
They have no good players, how would they be favorites? Michigan was better this year and might get just about everyone back with better recruits coming in.
AJ Hoggard is going to be a problem. He has no shooting ability now, but bc of his size, can get to the rim whenever he wants. If he is able to develop a shot and limit TOs (which he did with consistency the last several games of the year), he is going to be a frighteningly good college PG. Even if he can’t shoot, defenses will have to collapse against him bc of his ability to get to the rim consistently, and he can kick out to open shooters.
If Brown and Hauser return, that leaves them with Brown, Hauser, Christie, Walker, Akins — all of whom are good shooters (MSU was 2nd only to Purdue in the B1G in 3PT % this season at 0.378; Michigan was 9th at 0.339 for reference, and we lose our best shooter in Brooks). Christie looked good early on, and then struggled more against B1G opponents. An off-season of bulking up, and he is going to be a really good player and he’s not hateable, I would love to have him.
Saying ‘they have no good players’ is just dumb. It’s ok to despise MSU and Izzo, while objectively noting they will return a lot of upperclassmen next year, and will be a good team.
None of this means that nobody can compete with them, but they will likely be B1G favorites with all of the talent likely leaving Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, and potentially Michigan (Dickinson? Diabate? Houstan?). All would benefit from another year in college, but that’s not important for a league that drafts on potential. Hopefully they all stay bc of NIL potential, but I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 2/3 leave.
I like Michigan’s potential next season and we will improve too. We are in dire need of at minimum, one shooter from the portal. It’s no secret that we struggled this year when we shot poorly.
Yep, one thing MSU rarely has to worry about a quality players leaving early for the draft. Most end up under-developing and quickly fall off NBA draft radars so MSU gets them for upper class years.
Walker is really good. I think him, combined with Akins and year of development from Christie and they'll be pretty good. Their issue is they have no big. Hall is good, but his efficiency dropped off big time with more minutes towards the end. I wouldn't say MSU is the favorite, but they'll be up there for sure.
They had good players this year and weren’t a great team.
Not sure what changes next year…
March 22nd, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
He was an arguably great coach once. Now he is merely good-at-best and definitely on the decline as he goes into his "golden years" as a coach.
I've always heard officiating was a big (B1G?) reason. Certain teams play a physical style that B1G refs let them get away with, but that doesn't fly with the non-B1G tournament crews.
Its also about friendly whistles (Liddell crushing Jones but getting ticky tack vs Moussa 20 ft out) its a crutch that doesnt help these teams. Illinois is just a mess altogether.
MSU-Wisc-OSU
All get the treatment in season but we all know they will shit their pants in the tourney. Ill be honest the regular season in the big ten is mostly just BS. From the 89 team, to the Fab 5 to now you see who is truly the better team on neutral courts with the ref shows out of the equation.
I thought I’d been told refs cycle through a lot of the leagues so there isnt much truth to the big ten ref problem. Am I incorrect?
I have no idea either way, but there definitely does seem to be a disconnect between the success of "physical style" B1G teams during the regular season and their performance in the tournament.
Looser officiating in conference could be directed by the B1G ("you're not turning our games into foul fests"), tighter officiating in the tournament could be directed by the NCAA ("you're not letting teams get away with mugging in our tournament"), it could be subconscious...idk...
I briefly checked to see if there was any data to support this, sample sizes are incredibly low, but MSU FTR on the season was 28.3 (#124) so not bad. Against Duke the FTR was 37.5, so a pretty big uptick. Similarly OSU on the season was 29.1, and against Villanova was 38.5. So in those games they gave up a lot more free throws than normal.
This line of reasoning doesn't hold when you look at Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa though.
Iowa State bullied Wisconsin right off the court. Tennessee tried to be physical with Michigan and found out that doesn't work. I'm not sure the "Big Ten plays too rough and the refs are different in the tournament" argument holds up.
I think some teams (MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa) have traditionally used hustle and muscle to beat people. In the tournament you have to have some skill. When I watch those teams play (other than Wisconsin's one run to the championship game) you do not see 3 to 4 skilled players that work as a team. There is typically 1 or 2 skilled players the team has to ride. Any team at any level can scheme around 1 or 2 skilled players.
A great example was Michigan against Tennessee. Caleb Houstan didn't score a single point. Brooks, Hunter, & Diabate stepped up and picked up the scoring slack. Jones went down, and although he didn't have as big of scoring game, Collins played really well.
Who did Wisconsin have other than Davis? Who did MSU have other than the freshman wing? Who did Iowa have other than the Murray brothers? Those teams don't have someone else who can step up.
For as good as the Big Ten is overall, most teams still lack depth of talent.
I can see the "hustle and muscle" argument for Purdue (not so much this year though) and Wisconsin but definitely not Iowa. They are the polar opposite of that. Fran McCaffery is a legitimately excellent offensive coach and develops good scorers. But they never have the toughness to gut out a defensive slugfest when the shots aren't falling.
MSU is in its own category. Izzo recruits very well, on paper, but a lot of his players don't seem to develop for a long time, then emerge as good players as juniors/seniors. On top of this, Izzo just isn't that good of an offensive coach, but MSU gets around this by pushing the tempo to steal some cheap buckets. Play good transition D and you beat them.
I think it comes down to adaptability. A successful tourney team can't be one-dimensional. It has to have the ability to win in both a track meet and a grind-it-out battle. Not enough Big Ten teams have that in them.
If that SUV doesnt rollover we are Kansas the last 40 years.
From a talent standpoint not tourney results*
...and friggin Fab 5 banners hanging in Crisler Center.
I think there is a coorelation to how the Big Ten refs let a lot go and then come tourney time the game is officiated very tight. Very seldom do you see guys foul out during Big Ten games. Come NCAA tourney time there is foul trouble and guys fouling out all over the place.
I think the Big Ten is needs to take a look at how they want their refs officiating games going into the future.
Im wondering how long people will keep saying “January February Izzo” without a hint of irony. Theres still a few people out there who think its true!
Honestly its an incredible stat that Michigan has 5 sweet 16’s and the rest of the league has 6 combined when the league has been good! This isnt the late aughts when the ACC rolled the Big Ten in the challenge every year. Either John Beilein really injected this program with tournament super powers or theres something to the idea of Big Ten bully ball not translating to the tourney (or both a little A and a little B)
Also, success breeds success. With another sweet 16, Coach Howard is proving Michigan is the place to be if you want to keep playing in March (and hopefully April).
That should help keep the talent coming in and hopefully make the trend continue.
Part of it is tough matchups. MSU played Duke…Illinois played a vastly underseeded Houston….OSU got Villanova. Based on expected outcomes, the conference would have 3 in the Sweet 16. We got 2…underperformed sure, but actually not that far off of the expectation. Iowa and Wisconsin shat the bed, but Michigan was an unexpected success as an 11 seed.
But I mean…surely somebody else besides a Michigan can pull off an upset here and there right??? There was a lot of bitching about MSU drawing Duke or Illinois drawing Houston, but Michigan also got an underseeded favorite in its matchup, and a KenPom darling…and won anyway. All you can do is beat the team in front of you.
but let’s face it, those teams didn’t lose because of a bad matchup. They lost because they played like shit. Wisconsin was the best Bug Ten team by seed…playing at home…the fuck is your excuse? Iowa should have destroyed Richmond…what the hell happened? Illinois had a tough opponent but frankly they should have lost against Chattanooga with how terrible they were playing…why you suck so bad?
Theres always some element of luck involved, but it’s hilarious that all these supposedly better teams (who bitched about Michigan being overseeded at…11 lol) played like shit and lost.
MSU was lucky to beat the Davidson Fighting Fosters.
Yes, you can look at bad matchups in a vacuum but over the last 5 or 10 years I’d guess Michigan has most of the impressive ‘outperforming your seed’ runs for the big ten
I don't buy Houston as a world beater for the tournament in round 2 match-ups. Why do people think they're underseeded?
Houston is ranked #2 in KenPom and T-Rank, I think. But they don't have many Q1 wins because they didn't have many opportunities, so they're a 5-seed to the committee when Pomeroy and Torvik think they're a 1-seed.
Houston is down a couple players including their clear best, both having gone out right before conference play. Going 13-3 in a not deep league is not that impressive.
They're good and play hard but I think their seeding more closely reflects reality than the metrics. I did pick them to beat Illinois, but I don't think Illinois got particularly unlucky with the matchup.
All I know is I saw their Round 2 game and they're very good
I believe you out-pointed yourself here. So Michigan takes down a 6 and a 3. Michigan got no scheduling breaks-the other #6 seeds all lost too-except for Texas and Texas was no more of a threat than CSU. Not a single #6 seed made it to the Sweet 16.
This is hugely about coaching quality and style. The quality of the playing of the game as coached by John and then Juwan, while significantly different, is also quite different from the rest of the conference. And when you think about it, this applies to Painter as well. In simplistic terms the players of the screaming and yelling control-freak coaches clearly do not play as well under the increased stress of this huge one-and-done National stage. Give our coaches credit here-Michigan is most fortunate.
Yesterday, I asked if the Big Ten isn't as good as we think, or if it's that bully ball and inconsistent refs are poor prep for the tournament.
You pointed out something I overlooked, but should have thought of—b/c it's one of my great annoyances—the screaming coaches.
Yelling in the heat of the moment, I understand. Do it myself. But the non-stop whiners and screamers seem to me MUCH less about effective coaching than about insights into the divas' character.
Also, screaming has virtually nothing to do with teaching. Imagine trying to learn calculus or fire an M-16 or drive a car with the teacher yelling every time you made a mistake.
This.
I was really surprised watching Ill not making adjustments, poor player rotation, lacking simple fundamentals, shot selection, etc. There seems to be another level teams like Michigan and Villanova can get to, to maximize talent and efficiency. Really good tournament teams seem less wasteful with each possession.
There's a generation of middle & high school recruits that only know Michigan in the Sweet 16. #BlueBlood.
I've wondered this as well. I don't watch enough basketball to know what other schools are doing vs. what Big Ten teams are doing. Only stuff I feel like I've consistently heard is:
1) The Big Ten plays a more rugged, physical style of basketball, and the games are called as such by Big Ten refs, but are not done the same way in the tournament. No idea if that's true or not, but its what I've heard and seen on this board multiple times.
2) To win it all, you need superior/elite guard play. Again, I have no real data to back that up, but its another claim I've seen a handful of times on the board. Does the Big Ten, by comparison to the ACC/Big XII/Big East, not have the quality of guard play that you need to win a title? The Big Ten always has its share of great players every year. Does it just not have the right kind of great players?
Can't be recruiting. Several teams in the Big Ten recruit well enough to win a title.
If you consider B1G tournament teams are somewhat equal in skill and talent, then it comes down to coaching--Not matchups, not the refs.
Juwan Howard and Mark Painter are the answer here IMO.
Purdue looks deadly.... when they have a guy like Williams coming off bench. They aren't seeming to wilt this time.
Going back to Beilein, we shoot the 3's relatively well in tournament crunch times ( not necessarily the highest percentage) and have had good guard play, with an inside threat at center.
Do the new NCAA basketballs seem to bounce like a beach ball? I have never seem so many basketballs go in and out , rattle around the rim, or roll off the rim as I have in all the NCAA tourney games this year? Are differences in the Nike, Adidas and UA balls used by different leagues? ....and yes this is why we should dunk the ball instead of laying it up.
that all may be true. but if foster loyer found a way to beat msu in that first round game. it would make no difference. but it would have been magical.
That would be some heck of a title game. I think I speak -- or write -- for many that the odds of beating a damn good TN team was not great but Michigan did the unexpected and survived against all odds. Can the team continue to rack up another win and avenge its title game loss this coming Thursday against Villanova? I am praying that Michigan shocks the world yet again.
I watched all weekend as I was sick, had time to pay attention.
It think it's depth of talent and coaching. UM and Purdue have both. Ill and OSU are surprisingly poorly coached teams. Many BIG teams lack depth after their 'guy'.
Talented depth and good coaching will win you a ton of games in every sport.
While people have pointed out the "rugged" nature of the conference, along with its focus on beefy centers & forwards, a big thing is just the lack of absoulte top tier talent.
Go look at NBA drafts.
2021 -- Franz Wagner was the *only* B1G player taken in the first round.
2020 -- Jalen Smith, ditto
2019 -- Romeo Langford and Jordan Poole
...and so on.
Some years are a bit better in terms of B1G representation, and certainly a very good, winning collegiate player doesn't mean you get to be a 1st round NBA talent (e.g., Xavier Simpson comes to mind as just one example). But overall, outside of Michigan and occasionally one or two other B1G programs (depending on the year), the conference doesn't have top-tier NBA talent and that limits your upside.
I was going to say some version of this with less data. Basically I'd guess the basketball side is seeing something similar to football, where the overall population is shifting southward, and it's just harder to recruit top talent to the midwest. Juwan Howard may be able to break that trend, and before that I think John Beilein moneyballed some badly underrated talent. But the overall problem for the conference is still there, which I guess helps to explain something like the Rutgers/Maryland expansion.
The B1G had 9 teams in the tournament, but only 3 teams seeded as 4s or better. 2 B1G have made it past the first weekend, as compared to the 3 that would be expected based on seeding. I think the B1G as a conference has actually performed pretty close to expectations this tournament so far.
1. Most of this is luck due to the single elimination tournament.
2. Giant athletic players lead to better overall records, but single games are susceptible to hot shooting and upsets. The 3 point shot makes the game a lot more unpredictable.
Most on this board know more about b-ball than I do but it appeared to me that the referees let Duke pummel MSU in the last 10 minutes. Spartans were knocked to the floor several times (or an elbow push-off to the face) without a whistle. Duke may be a special case with ref treatment.
I like the comments for lack of depth for teams in the Big10 and also not playing too bad with respect to seed.
Coach K: Hey Bo, you gonna let me go out to State?!?
Bo Boroski: Hold my whistle!
Beilein/Howard/Painter are the best tacticians in the league, so makes sense we/purdue do the best.