Managing Joe Milton Expectations

Submitted by Nervous Bird on September 20th, 2020 at 8:23 PM

Like many of us on this site, I almost hyperventilated when I read the Joe Milton to Cam Newton comparison. The 247/Michigan article referenced Devin Gardener, Matt Leinart, and Urban Meyer (ugh) in projecting potential greatness from our new signal caller. While I'm quite hopeful that our 2020 season results in a similar fashion as Cam Newton's first season starting for Auburn in 2010, I'm thinking that we may see our team on the same trajectory as Texas with Vince Young in 2004 and 2005. 

Vince Young as a college quarterback was a dynamic athlete who was rather raw as a passer. While Milton is not as dynamic of a runner as VY, he is less raw throwing the ball. Still, this is his first year starting since high school (Cam started in JUCO for a season), and I don't know if we can expect a Newton-like season. However, if he can build through the season as a starter, as VY did in 2004, we may see a phenomenal bowl game (like VY against us) that portends a proceeding season for the ages. 

I'm willing to endure some struggles to reap some hefty rewards. We have a very young team on offense this year. Instead of Cam Newton, I'm thinking Vince Young, and I would be very pleased if Milton's college career ending just as Cam and VY's ended.

Nervous Bird

September 20th, 2020 at 8:45 PM ^

I don't disagree. But, if we are classifying "big games" as the National Title, ala Newton, then I think we should be hopeful but not expectant for 2020. If we are classifying "big games" as The Game, then again, I think we should be hopeful, but not necessarily expectant for 2020. Further, I think Harbaugh has won some "big games" in his tenure. I do not discount the hurdle that was MSU in the years preceding Harbaugh's arrival. Having won 3 of the last 4 is "big" to me. I also do not discount the powerhouse that Wisconsin has been for the past decade. Winning games against them count as "big". Sometimes, I think we forget the state of the program before Harbaugh arrived. We've struggled against OSU, and some really good teams on the road. But, save for one season, we struggled against EVERYBODY everywhere for the better part of a decade. 

Joined: 08/11/2018

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Qmatic

September 20th, 2020 at 9:38 PM ^

The “Big Games” remain road games vs ranked teams and of course OSU. Harbaugh has only lost 5 home games in 5 years. 2 were extremely fluky losses to MSU, and the other 3 of course were to OSU (somehow the only close one was where O’Korn was QB). We have mollywhopped teams like ND, Wisconsin, and Penn St (twice) at home. While looking like shit each time in Madison and Happy Valley. 

If Harbaugh didn’t have that stain on his tenure I think we would all be frustrated not beating OSU, but if that was the only hurdle, it would be different. We have to win games at Penn St, Wisconsin, Iowa, and now Minnesota. If we can’t do that, we will never go into Columbus and win.

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mitchewr

September 20th, 2020 at 10:11 PM ^

Exactly. We're all over here wondering when Jim is finally gonna take down OSU when the reality is he can't even manage to beat the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, or Penn State on the road. We want the team to go out and win marathons when we're still struggling with a brisk jog around the subdivision.

Joined: 08/29/2016

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East German Judge

September 20th, 2020 at 10:20 PM ^

The inability to win road games is not only against ranked teams, but against ANY reasonably decent team is a fact.  We need to stop making excuses for him, new qb, qb is a transfer, new offense, etc. 

This is now year 6, these players are all his, the excuses must stop and the wins must come.  He is paid like a top 5 coach and he has unparalleled resources. 

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Qmatic

September 20th, 2020 at 10:29 PM ^

Aside from 2016 OSU and 2017 Wisconsin, all of our road losses fielded a team that didn’t even look close to what they look like at home. The Penn St and Wisconsin ass-kickings, along with coming out insanely flat vs ND, Iowa, and this year at Penn St where we come out so poor and make a comeback but run out of time. We aren’t losing games on the road in close well-played games. We constantly look like shit.

Joined: 01/09/2013

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Gulogulo37

September 21st, 2020 at 12:44 AM ^

"The “Big Games” remain road games vs ranked teams and of course OSU. "

No. When the media was really pounding Harbaugh's road record against ranked teams, someone here looked at other programs and basically any program besides the elites like OSU have terrible road records. OSU was barely about .500 IIRC. This was like 2 years ago so maybe it's changed a bit. Not saying Harbaugh has been great, but winning road games vs ranked teams consistently means we're in the playoffs consistently.

Joined: 03/16/2010

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rs207200

September 21st, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^

QMatic, spot on!!

The focus should not be on beating Ohio State. That’s too big of a jump from where the program currently is at. At the end of the day, if you can beat Ohio State, that means you’re a top 4 team and have an excellent shot at the national title.

Instead, Michigan needs to address two hurdles first before worrying about OSU.

 

1) QB play. QB play has been very poor every year under Harbaugh (even Ruddock season, taken in aggregate, was bad). You cannot win without great QB play. Last year’s playoff teams had arguably the 4 best QBs in CFB. Hell, even friggin Bama couldn’t handle not having a top flight QB (and their backup was light years better than Shea). 
 

2) Win games on the road vs ranked teams. While it’s tough, you should be able to go 50/50 on ranked road games. Harbaugh is closer to like 1-10 or something. 
 

When Michigan consistently has great QB play and can win 50% of their road games against ranked teams, THEN you can start to worry about OSU.  

Joined: 04/26/2011

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Lakeyale13

September 21st, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^

The mere fact that our QB play is "serviceable and decent" is a huge problem.  I am totally for giving coaches time to recruit their guys and develop players, but it is ridiculous that Jim Harbaugh after 5 years hasn't recruited and developed a single QB to be better than "decent".  That is 100% on JH.

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LabattsBleu

September 21st, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^

Its simple for me: winning a big game means something meaningful...

a rivalry game is meaningful...but not as much as winning a championship of some kind.

Never mind winning the B1G conference, they've never even won the B1G East....And they finished 2nd once in the last 5 years...

Sure feels like they've hit Harbaugh's ceiling at 10-3.

Joined: 10/06/2012

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murderwolflives

September 21st, 2020 at 5:37 PM ^

meant this to go in reply to thad but it posted at the end so apologies for reposting but wanted to share specifically here

I was going to take exception to the statement this is a young team and then i found this useful link:

https://mgoblog.com/content/depth-chart-class-redux-0

Really we do have a young team

22 True Freshmen

17 RS Freshmen

25 Sophomores

11 Juniors

and only 9(!!) seniors

Baby MurderWolves ha

Joined: 09/21/2020

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 20th, 2020 at 8:36 PM ^

Even if Milton has put it all together, is there high or medium or low confidence in Bell/Johnson/Glies/Sainristil/Roman/Henning/Eubanks/Schoonmaker?  That seems like a medium quality group to catch lasers from Milton; Nico is a huge variable who would make a big difference with his ability to bail out any deep throw for a QB needing a safety valve.

Maybe Johnson picks up 80% of Nico’s void and Roman puts a lot of pressure on safeties in the B1G; Giles and Sainristil can work the under routes; perhaps Eubanks and Schoonmaker have high TE potential as pass-catchers as a third option in the passing game.

But when it’s 3rd and 12, Milton needs at least 1 option to make the play. 

Joined: 11/01/2012

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 20th, 2020 at 8:55 PM ^

Bell is a high-quality route runner and the two slots (Giles and Sainristil) should be much better with a year of Gattis tutelage. Overall, the group will be solid and tear up a lot of B1G secondaries. I just don’t see an NFL-level talent who can separate from Wade when necessary or make the big plays at Minnie to give Milton the confidence to throw open a guy on a regular basis.

QB gets a lot easier when a guy knows a speedster will turn around a safety to create 5-yd space or a throw 3’ above the outside shoulder is very catchable compared to fitting in a tight window. A guy like Worthy will create even more space, but who gives Milton high confidence this year?

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Stringer Bell

September 20th, 2020 at 9:05 PM ^

The whole reason Gattis was brought here was to get guys like Jackson and Sainristil open through the system.  Nico is a great talent and has a lot of size that makes him attractive to the NFL but he rarely got separation from whoever was covering him, and most college QBs aren't capable of putting the ball in the right spot to let a guy like Nico go and high point it.  Jackson and Sainristil (and maybe Henning and Wilson) are gonna be more productive because they're better fits for the system with their speed.  And hitting a guy open in the middle of the field is probably the easiest thing Milton will be able to do at this point.

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Blue Me

September 21st, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^

You raise a good point.

While DPJ has great top end speed what he never had were the ankle-busting quick feet of a Sanristil. Sanristil was getting open by five yards on underneath routes. 

Jackson has the same sort of ability. It says something that Nick Saban kicked away from him in the bowl game. 

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