M #1 in SP+
I was a bit surprised by this, but Michigan is now #1 in the updated SP+ rankings. Strength of Schedule is considered. The defense still has the potential to be the best since '97 (or at least 2016). The offense has a LOT more weapons than either of those teams did. November will be difficult, but the potential is still there.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
This makes me happy
September 24th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
Underrated
September 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Am I the only one who thinks this week's win in genuinely being underrated by the media? Rutgers was close to being ranked, has a solid rushing attack, and a great defense. We won this game soundly and they only scored on 1 big play. But now it's just "it's just Rutgers, Michigan still hasn't played anyone"
September 24th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Much as it pains me to admit it, Rutgers isn't a bad team this year. They're probably going bowling and could even have a 7 or 8 win season with a little luck.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
If Rutgers was in the West division they seem like they would be up there with Wisconsin as favorite to win the division.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
I think there were also many people over-valuing Rutgers based on a 3-0 record. The reality is somewhere in the middle, they’re certainly not “Rutgers” anymore but I don’t think they’re that great of a team either. Probably finish between 6 and 8 wins (haven’t looked at their schedule to make a real guess) but they’re a team Michigan should handle easily and we did. Onward
September 24th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
I can see Rutgers winning 6-8 games. Rutgers isn't bad but the Big Ten doesn't seem very good top to bottom. Excluding Rutgers, you've got UM, OSU and PSU in the top tier and then Wisconsin and Maryland are probably decent/good. After that, it's a lot of teams that aren't very good (Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, MSU, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa).
September 26th, 2023 at 6:13 AM ^
Yeah I gave them losses to UM, OSU, PSU, and Maryland in my head. Maryland will put up points and I don’t think Rutgers can keep up in a shootout so ceiling was 8. I know they beat NW already but idk their other crossovers but I think they’re better than MSU and Indiana. So that gets them to 5, and just leaving their two remaining cross-overs and a non-conference game to get in that 6-8 range.
September 24th, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
He has a point though. I listened to half of the game on the golf course, watched the other half at a bar after the round. I left the bar thinking “wow I really didn’t think Michigan was just going to kick their ass like this.” When I turned on the radio after the game the host and the callers were acting like they lost. It was kind of weird. Then I thought “I will just hit up MGoBlog and they will be happy.” Then I came on here and everyone was pissed off here too. Rutgers almost beat Michigan at the Big House 2 years ago. Like it was highly in doubt late in the 4th quarter. This was just a routine ass-kicking of a decent team.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
This is one of those wins that will probably look better at the end of the season than it does now. Rutgters looks like a team that can win enough games to go to a decent bowl game.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
Highly doubtful.RU won one big ten game last year.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
Well weak schedule aside, we've beaten everybody 30-something to 7 with no game being competitive in the 2nd half, so that kinda checks out.
Crazy thing is how sloppy and unfocused we've looked on offense, yet we're still hammering teams. Once this team really clicks, I think we'll have something special
September 24th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
I dont think we're as good as last years team but everyone else in the country is worse so yeah we might be the best team in the country this year despite losing some key players especially on the OL.
Id be interested in seeing the raw sp+ score, im guessing it's lower than last years even though we're ranked #1 right now.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
All the tinkering with the offensive line led to a slow start in the running game. That's the only part where we are behind last year's team. But it seems like a reasonable expectation to assume that the run game will improve dramatically once we solidify the starting five.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Sure, and I'm fully confident Harbaugh and Co will the team running at full steam come November, but last year's team was pretty great, Im not sure we're better than last year anywhere on the field. A lot of guys went to the NFL, no shame in not being quite as talented this year.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Wait a second, so you are saying that JJ this year is not better than JJ last year and W Johnson this year is not better than W Johnson last year and M Graham is not better this year than M Graham last year. I could go on. I get saying this team has not played as good as last years team yet but saying they are not better anywhere on the field is some major bpone.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
Expecting this year's team to be better than last year's isn't really reasonable IMO, but as the other poster was saying that doesn't mean we can't go undefeated. The jury is out but a lot of units look worse so far.
Mason Graham isn't Mazi Smith. Will Johnson didn't even play half of last year and has been injured this year.
Potential is one thing but so far I would take last year's RB room, OL, TEs, DL, & secondary over this year's. The only place where there seems to be obvious improvement is at QB.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^
Sorry but your take is insane -- not to say guys don't regress occasionally (see Patterson, Shea) but that is not the norm. This team is loaded with more experience, more depth and the same or better top end talent as last year's team
RB -- Basically the same room except everybody is a year older and we added Cabana (yes, Corum coming off injury, but he looks fully back and great) -- how in the world is this year's RB room demonstrably better?
OL -- No argument here, Olu was a special and underrated player that this team misses
TE -- Also fair, although I disagree -- Loveland is proving again to be a contested catch merchant and will be the best TE and might have the best TE season since Jake Butt -- Barner looking very solid as well
DL - Mazi is a loss -sure you say Mason isn't Mazi - but Mazi had 0.5 sacks the entire year -- Mason + KG already have 2 combined on the season + Kris Jenkins with another year and 20 pounds >> Kris Jenkins last year -- and no real loss in production from the edge spots (depending on your view of Okie), everybody returns a year older + addition of Stewart
Secondary - Push in my opinion -- this was Johnson and Moore's first real games of the season -- they will be elite. Sainristil is also amazing and is already showing to be better than last year. Only downgrade is Turner for Wallace - but I'd say 4 of your 5 starters will be better this year with some additional depth and potential rotation pieces by the end of year (Saab, J. Hill)
September 24th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
Great analysis. I'd just add that you can't underestimate the importance of cohesion on the o line, and that certainly contributes to our sense of the running game not being as strong. Can it happen still? I'd be curious for opinions.
I've complained about our schedule. But now that we know what we've got another month to tweak assignments doesn't seem like such a bad idea, especially where the o line is concerned. I think we can still land in the playoff with a chance to win it all.
September 24th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
It seems like Seth agrees with you that Mason Graham isn't Mazi Smith. Mason Graham is better than Mazi Smith.
September 24th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
This team could and should be better than last year.
JJs experience alone will elevate this team.
The defense is better across the board. Which is remarkable when you lose a 1st round DT.
My biggest concern is watching skill players not put everything they have into picking up the blitz or downfield block.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Having a healthy BC makes this a better team compared to end of the year UM last year
September 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Are we worse than last year in week 4 though? We're worse than last year's team as it looked in week 12, I'll grant you. But in 2021 in week 4, we sludged our way to a tight win over Rutgers. And in 2022 week 4 we had a tight win over Maryland in which we had to regain the lead even after Maryland gifted us a TD on the opening kickoff.
I'd argue we're actually ahead of recent years taking into account the fact that the last 2 teams peaked later in the season.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
Idk possibly, Maryland is a much better team than rutgers though. Those tough games last season, Illinois too, to me felt like those teams were playing out of their minds to challenge us and force the best out of us. Today's game felt like we were playing a high school team but gifted them a couple plays. Just my opinion.
Looking around the country, ohio doesn't look nearly as good as last year, Georgia same. I just really think last year's team wins a national championship most years, and this year's might have a better chance against less competition.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
Idk possibly, Maryland is a much better team than rutgers though.
I would compare Maryland and Rutgers to Brian's frequent descriptions of safeties. Maryland is that safety who makes big plays and is exciting, but also busts just as often as he makes a big play. Rutgers is the boring safety who isn't as athletic but is always in the right position and makes solid tackles. Michigan is the safety who makes big plays and is always in the right position (Rod Moore).
I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers beats Maryland. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers gives Ohio State a hard time. Notre Dame was running the ball down their throat and they don't have a running QB.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:01 PM ^
Michigan's score last year after four games, 25.3. Their score this year so far is 26.7.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
It is easy to be critical of Michigan because we are so focused on them as we watch every play.
I couldn't help but notice how confused the Iowa offense looked last night at Happy Valley. Cade looked terrible and I kind of feel sorry for him.
No doubt that Michigan has more to work on and yes, it will be really fun to watch when they really click.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
I can’t seem to find enough compassion to feel sorry for Cade. His accusations about how arbitrary the QB competition was last year and how M doctors mismanaged him showed a shocking lack of ownership for his own play. Then we hear from multiple sources that he was a divisive personality in the QB room and didn’t help JJ at all because he saw JJ as a threat to him.
no. Cade can live with the consequences of his anti-team, entitled, insecure behavior.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
More or less same feelings for me - I was actively rooting for him to succeed until that article dropped a few weeks back. Now I'm totally indifferent - not rooting against him, simply not caring at all.
At this point I hope someone else comes out of the West to face us in the B1G championship game, as I'd rather not hear the "bitter Cade" story ad nauseum for an entire week.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
There are lots of things in life I worry about. Facing Iowa with a revenge minded Cade on the CCG.... is not one of those things. Iowa may not get 25 first downs the rest of the season, let alone 25 ppg.
September 24th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
zero worries about facing Iowa/Cade - I just don't want to hear about it on every show/podcast leading up to the game
September 24th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
There is some truth to this.
I will be forever grateful for him having led the team to the Big Ten Title and victory over OSU.
Nothing he did was unforgivable but it sure was sour grapes.
Compare that with how Brady handled his QB competition.
September 24th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
I kinda feel bad for him, but also…he’s the one who was bitter for losing his job to a guy who ended up being the better option. And he’s the one who chose to go to the literal worst offense in the country who somehow kept all of its coaches in place…he could have gone anywhere else and been better off. Shoot, Illinois would have been a better option.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
The one thing I'm slightly worried about is that with our style/pace of play and the new clock rules, what is our offense capped out in terms of possible points? If another team's offense can be somewhat successful against our defense, I'm a little worried about how many points our offense can physically put up if it becomes a shoot out
September 24th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
This assumes we wouldn’t adjust our speed or are otherwise not capable of it.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
And supplanted Iowa as the #1 SP+ defense.
Go Blue!
September 24th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Iowa's defense was butt-sexed by the Iowa offense last night. They never had a chance... That OL - woof. The LT? Holy hell, that guy is worse than OSU's LT.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Cade had no chance yesterday. It was hard to watch. He was getting mugged every other play.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Yep. They were just worn down because Iowa's offense couldn't stay on the field. I just checked the breakdown on ESPN. Out of Iowa's 10 drives, they had:
- 7 three and outs
- 1 one and out (fumble)
- 2 drives of 5 and 6 plays each
How the fuck can you be that incompetent on offense?
September 24th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
OMG wow. That's ineptitude. Just checked the box score. Iowa had 76 yards total offense, 35 of which came on three Cade to Erick All pass plays. 4 total first downs. 0 points. I believe Brian Ferentz is due for a raise? /s
September 24th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
I still remember their game last year vs OSU. They lost 46-10, and the OSU offense, defense, and Iowa's defense all outscored Iowa's offense.
Even though they got bombed for 30 pts in the second half, I didn't blame that loss at all on the Iowa defense.
September 24th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
That was a weird and unsettling game to watch as a Michigan fan. On the one hand, it was clear that Iowa had no chance to beat the menace from Columbus, the Iowa offense had no chance to do anything at all. There wasn't even any hope that maybe they could keep it close and get some fluke points. On the other hand, Iowa had a defensive scheme that could stop Ohio State, until the defense wore down, and must have given some tape for Harbaugh and friends to build their own scheme for The Game.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
The 2021 defense was pretty good too, pretty close if not better than 2016.
September 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
No it was not.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
That was a top heavy 2021 defense, with Hutch, Ojabo, and Dax.
Michigan still had Vincent Gray at CB1, Josh Ross was frankly not very good (outside of blitzing), and this was not the 2022 version of Mazi Smith.
September 24th, 2023 at 2:22 PM ^
Did you forget about DJ Turner in both your paragraphs?
September 24th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
The 2006 defense was pretty good as well.
September 24th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
Our defense is more well-rounded this year, but we still haven't seen this team respond to a challenge yet. Still, defensively I see no real weakness, no Charles Woodson either. 2021 we didn't have the best corners but Dax and those defensive end + scheme more than made up for it.
Edit: maybe Mikey + healthy Johnson ~ Woodson. I was a teenager in 1997, so I glorify it too much, as we all should. It is difficult to see anyone in that light in today's game.
September 24th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Will Johnson might not be Woodson (because duh) but he's probably going to be thought of as one of the greats when it's all said and done.
September 24th, 2023 at 10:19 PM ^
Nothing replaces or recreates Charles Woodson. He was nearly god-like on a college football field. This defense looks damn good, but it will not replicate 1997's success by finding another Woodson.