Looking ahead to Nebraska
Next weekend will be under the lights in Lincoln. I'm expecting to get Nebraska's best effort, so I was watching them a bit last night against northwestern. A few thoughts based off their game last night, and their schedule so far:
- They run the ball a ton, and they use the option. Requires discipline to defend.
- They ran for over 400 yards against northwestern last night (northwestern is in a down year, but that's still incredible).
- Against MSU, they ran 50 times for 194 yards. Martinez also threw 34 times for 244.
- Against Oklahoma, they ran 38 times for 95 yards. Oklahoma contained them well on the ground. Martinez threw for 289 on 25 attempts.
- It seems to me that discipline will be the name of the game for the UM defense next week. Discipline to bottle up the option and discipline to not suck in on play action to get beat over the top. Martinez will make mistakes.
- Oklahoma's offense was balanced against Nebraska's D: 35 runs for 194 yards, 34 passes for 214.
- MSU ran 30 times for 71, and threw 23 times for 183. Despite Nebraska massively out-gaining MSU, Nebraska turned it over twice and gave up a punt return TD.
- If UM's offensive gameplan is more Wisconsin than Rutgers, I don't see Nebraska's defense hanging on. That said, I think their defense is better than we probably think. I doubt UM will steamroll for 300+ yards on the ground.
- I think we generally have a negative perception of Nebraska, but I think they are going to be tougher than we expected at the beginning of the season. With the added factor of the game being on the road, in front of a juiced-up UTL crowd, I expect another close game.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^
Nebraska is a really dangerous team and a lot better than their record. Brainfarts, bad luck and coaching game mismanagement has cost them a bunch of close games in Frost's tenure.
And we know for sure....nobody will out-hit them and Scotty's mom will be there providing support for her son.
Definitely a dangerous game....need to get up early.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
They had the ball and most of a minute, needed to go 30 yards to kick a field goal to beat msu in soul crushing fashion at the end of the game. They didn't even try.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
I am with you emotionally. I think they tried for one play (which failed) and then they looked at field position and time on the clock. They had time to pull it out only if they had predetermined to run a ferocious 1 minute drill otherwise a late score would have been mostly luck.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:49 AM ^
As long as we dont let them out hit us, we should be ok .
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:52 AM ^
It will be tough, because unless you are Bama, every game is tough. People don't realize how hard it is to win, week in and week out. I remember an article about 7 - 10 years ago about Nick Saban and how he said you can really only get your team fired up and emotionally invested in about 4 games a year, so you have to be very careful with lesser opponents because when you are the better team, it's typically every week you will get an emotionally invested and fired up team to play against so you better have a very good game plan to compensate for the emotional imbalance. I like how this team is treading. The fact that it's a night game on national TV should help with the focus.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
Night game on National tv has not thus far helped the focus for road games. That’s not even a Harbaugh criticism as many teams struggle with that.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:20 AM ^
Literally the only two games we won last year were road night games
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
I detest Nick Saban, but damned if he isn't a GREAT college coach. Ignoring his advice is for the foolish among us...
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
You mean to buy Aflac?
October 4th, 2021 at 7:01 AM ^
Give Coach Prime his blue jacket.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:59 AM ^
Definitely a team not to overlook. They’ve played a tough schedule and played it well. The record doesn’t do their team justice. Trap game high alert for sure. Just win, take the bye and get ready to beat the Sparty ass!
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Definitely going to be a tough game. The Huskers have gotten better at limiting their mistakes. We had our difficulties against the option playing Rutgers; hopefully that's cleaned up. Having Josh healthy will definitely help with that.
The team took it to another level against the Badgers; the game against Nebraska is going to be similar to that, mentally. If we can contain them defensively, I see us breaking open a close game in the second half. I think we are just beginning to use the offensive weapons we have at our disposal.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
I watched a quarter. I agree with your assessment. I will add that I am worried about soft coverage against them. Martinez did not look good throwing past 10 yards. But they throw short combined with option play. I hope MM comes up with a good game plan to confuse them. Like OP said, discipline is going to be the key.
On offense, I am not too worried. They are not the vaunted black shirt D of the past. I expect our running game to work. This will be a great game to test the edges. Our coaches have surprised us this week. I hope that continues next week.
Field position will be key and getting up on them early will be important.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
I can 100% assure that the coaches will surprise us next week.
Good or bad remains to be seen.
I liked what I saw against Wisky from the sideline and both sides of the ball. I think Nebraska is a better team than Wisconsin however and will be a tougher challenge.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:10 AM ^
There are very few “easy” games, based on what we are seeing this year across the CFB landscape (Bama excluded), which I think plays to Michigan’s advantage. Every game in the NFL is a battle. Macdonald and Harbaugh should have each side prepped accordingly.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:17 AM ^
*Macdonald and Gattis...
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^
When you say “another” close game are you referring to 2nd half Rutgers, given nothing else has been close…
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
In fairness Wisconsin had the ball at the start of the fourth quarter down 20-10. The game felt in control, but it wouldn’t have taken much to make things uncomfortable in a hurry.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
It was close to close.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Close adjacent, if you will.
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
Both games were close when they started
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
Yeah, Michigan hasn’t been all that dominant this year, they’ve been tied with every team they played.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:21 AM ^
Have the chance for back to back road wins since I can’t remember….where the hell is WD with the Superguide?!?!?
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:28 AM ^
Harbaugh’s first year in 2015. Beat Indiana and Penn State in back to back weeks on the road.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
If only he hadn't have been purged from here...
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
Nebraska has been a tough luck team this year. They gave Sparty all they could handle before losing in OT. They made their own luck Saturday destroying Northwestern. They will be a tough opponent. Like how Michigan is playing now, including how hard Michigan plays. Hope everyone including Blake, who took a big shot Saturday, is healthy. Beat Nebraska, Go Blue !
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:37 AM ^
I have to admit Nebraska has been improving as the season as gone on. I do expect this to be a tougher game then I thought it would be when the season started.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
Nebraska scares me a little bit. But how the hell did they lose to Illinois.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
They have improved each week. They will be a challenge.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
They made two critical mistakes in a game that was closer than it probably would be now: the safety on the punt return (which in addition to the two points is essentially a turnover) and the scoop and score touchdown Illinois got right before the half (which came right after the only Illinois turnover).
That's nine points in a game they lost by eight.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:40 AM ^
I worry for Martinez health.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
Good point. Running QB up against some guys who can bring some vicious but legal hits. Ouch.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Nebraska may end up providing a larger challenge for Michigan than Wisconsin given their offensive capabilities. Add in a night road game environment and a team/coach desperate for a signature victory and the stage is set. No question that Michigan will need to play well in all three phases of the game. Definitely not a team to overlook.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^
They are better than their record. Should’ve beaten MSU, had every chance to beat Oklahoma, and should’ve beaten Illinois. They’ve got enough talent to beat Michigan, but their problem is that they are their own worst enemy and make stupid mistakes at the worst possible time.
But they’re going to come out fired up, and you can bet Frost will be coaching this game as if his job depends on it. This may be his last, best chance to score any kind of win of note this year, anything he can hang his hat on and prove to the new AD that he just needs more time.
They have a worse defense than Wisconsin but a far better offense, and they’ll have the home crowd at their back. Michigan will absolutely have its hands full.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
They have IA, OSU & WI left on their schedule. Not sure UM is their last chance at anything.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
I said last, best chance. Both Iowa and OSU are ranked higher than Michigan right now, and Wisconsin may not qualify as a big win by the time that game rolls around for Nebraska.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
If you’re in the B1G West any win over WI is big. So, that’s their best chance. The UM game doesn’t seem to be the last of anything for Frost. It’s a big game for him but it won’t save his job and it won’t lose his job. Big game for sure, but there’s plenty more. All Ws are big for him given his record.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
There is no “should have beaten Illinois” - Illinois is absolutely awful. You either beat them or you don’t. They could have beaten Illinois but crucially did not. They are obviously improved since that game but I am not moved by a single performance of theirs this year. They find a way to lose because they are a loser program.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
Nebraska will be the best offense we have faced so far. They aren't great but QB is dangerous. He will make plays. Hope he turns the ball over a couple if times. Will be a bigger challenge than Wisconsin. Looking forward to it.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
I don't know if it's the best offense, but clearly, the best QB. Contain him, and it will be an easy win.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^
Well, QB has alot to do with how good or bad an offense is. I give you plus 1 .
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
Going to be a big test.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:19 AM ^
If you haven’t realized it yet, Nebraska is very much NOT a doormat. A lot of the country wrote them off after week zero but they’ve been pretty good since then. This is going to be a really tough road game
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
I understand that Nebraska is feeling themselves right now. Seems like a better offensive team but worse defensive team that Wisconsin.
That said, a loss to Nebraska would be a big step backwards imo. Tough to win on the road twice in a row but... Force them into mental mistakes and they'll make them.
October 4th, 2021 at 7:06 AM ^
Tell them to stop feeling themselves. Don't they know it will fall off?
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:24 AM ^
Nebraska seems to be improving but I think we match up really well with them. Good luck running the option at Hutchinson. Martinez won’t finish the game if they try it more than a few times.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
What about away from Hutchinson?
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
And it is looking more apparent running it at Ojabo may not be such a great idea either. He's not the edge crushing cyborg that Hutchinson is, but he can still make some eye popping plays with his athleticism.
Honestly, I don't think Nebraska is going to have an answer for Hutch or Ojabo in this one. Michigan absolutely will have to play well, and they are going to get Nebraska's very best shot, it will be tough. But Nebraska is a team that likes to get to the perimeter, and Michigan has defended those plays very well this year. I think they'll struggle to gain consistent yards.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
If you ignore an absolutely heinous week 1 loss to Illinois (I know, I'm asking a lot), Nebraska has actually looked pretty tough this year. They're a handful of plays away from being 5-0 or 4-1.
Week 1: LOL
Week 2: Cupcake murder
Week 3: Pseudo-cupcake murder
Week 4: Tight loss to Oklahoma
Week 5: OT loss to a surprisingly good MSU team
Week 6: Cupcake murder (Northwestern)
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
I never hated Nebraska like others here, as I was 7 when they shared the championship with Michigan…meanwhile Scott Frost doesn’t annoy me like he does others - though his outhitting Michigan quote was funny.
As for Nebraska, their team fell apart against Illinois, but they are a competent special teams unit and a few plays from beating MSU and Oklahoma.
I watched them murder a downtrodden northwestern last night, and they look every bit like a team that is turning the page and finally getting to be what Frost wanted. Personally, I’d love to see Nebraska turn into a solid team in the division that can capitalize on Wisconsin’s bad year and boost an otherwise weak division
This will be a close game IMO, but I think Michigan should still win. I’m going with 31-20, with the game being close until the 4th quarter.