Let's Talk About Tomorrow's Game v. Villanova

"I predict you will die a horrible, horrible death."

My God, that's terrible!

"Oh wait, that was my prediction for the previous team.  Now let's focus on you...

I predict you will die a horrible, horrible death."

.... Thanks.

House money.  I fully expected to lose to TN because we can't win 2 games in a row.  I fully expect to lose to Nova, not because of them but because we can't win 3 games in a row.  I am open to being most  pleasantly surprised with a win.

I hate Jay Wright for being so damn good, and Villanova gives me hoops PTSD. I didn't expect the team to win two, so I didn't bother to complain about our bracket drawing UT, Nova, and Arizona. Now with the potential to have to play all three, I'm annoyed.

But, I'm an eternal optimist. Good guys by 10!  . 

72-69 UM wins.  They have no answer for Hunter in the post.

Watching in my basement. 

Go Blue.

I don't expect to win, but it sure is nice playing with house money and feeling like we've already exceeded expectations. It sure won't be our guys feeling the pressure tomorrow

Hunter scores 45 in a close win. Many, MANY large man crotch-grabs are caught on CBS cameras

I had the privilege of seeing Nova in person recently and they were very consistent, didn’t make many unforced errors, and played tight defense (maybe taken with a grain of salt given they were matched up with Butler, who isn’t having the greatest season). What they don’t seem to have is anybody who is going to able to hang with Hunter in the post. If our guards can defend Gillispie and maybe Houstan hits his first three, I’m optimistic of our chances.

Also, I have a lot of respect for Jay Wright, how he comports himself and how he appears to run his program. In many ways, he’s like a younger, better dressed Beilein. 

I am currently in San Antonio for business and need to return to Ypsi Thursday evening. If staying an extra night was an option, I would have taken it.

This is not a great defensive matchup for UM. The team just has a hard time guarding 5 out while keeping its most effective offensive lineup on the court. I think the key will be what percentage of its 3s Villanova makes. Above 33% or so, and it'll be hard for UM to win. Below that, and UM's size may be able to dominate the game. 

Also, the guards have to avoid foul trouble because we're thin there and Gillespie, in particular, is great at drawing fouls (and the whole team has to avoid fouling in general, because 'Nova's free throw shooting's off the charts). Hopefully Jones is ready to go (though they should not risk it if he in fact had another concussion in the Tennessee game) because I fear Gillespie will be able to work Frankie in the post (they do that thing Wisconsin used to do of inverting their guards and bigs).

I have absolutely no idea how to predict this game. I thought Michigan would lose to Tennessee, but was very pleasantly surprised. I'd like to be surprised again. In reading about the teams, I'm struck by several things:

• Size. Michigan is significantly bigger. Can we get the ball to Dickinson and Diabate in the post? If so, I think that's a clear advantage for Michigan.
• 3 point shooting. This is the game where I think Houstan's play kills us, or massively helps us. If Houstan can hit the three, along with a combination of Dickinson, Brooks, Jones, and Williams, we could theoretically crush Nova. Healthy 3 point shooting along with Hunter and Diabate having lots of room to operate inside, could turn the tide.
• On defense, Collins has so much more speed. I'm wondering how Juwan will capitalize on the very different strengths of Jones and Collins.
• Randomness of the universe. Tennessee just lost it with 3 point shooting, and that killed them. I don't know how much of that was randomness, and how much was Michigan's defense. But if I remember correctly, Villanova killed us in the National Championship Game with their 3 point shooting. I'm hoping that Diabate's and Collin's speed, along with Houstan's improvement on defense, significantly negate their outside game. Brooks has been the glue that quietly holds things together. but if Nova snipes us to death from the outside, I just don't see Michigan winning.

Last time we played Nova in San Antonio, it was ginger hellfire raining down from the rafters all night.

Time for some revenge!

I'll break down each side for Villanova and how Michigan can attack

Villanova offense:

It all starts with Collin Gillespie. He is like a combo of Brunson and DiVincenzo from 2018. He does the Brunson thing where he drives to the post, jump stops, then kicks or tries to score with post moves. Plus, he can pull up from anywhere and work off screens to get shots. He has a size and physicality advantage over Collins, Jones, or Brooks so I think he'll be looking to score out of those post ups. However, if Michigan tries to help, Villanova has shooters at all positions, so we must be mindful of that threat. Villanova is generally big 1-3 and small compared to Michigan 4-5, so they will attack Diabate and Dickinson with speed and Jones/Collins, Brooks, and Houstan with size/strength. They run lots of ball screen offense and take excellent care of the ball. Interestingly, they haven't been good against zone defenses so Michigan will try to throw that out against them. Overall, they're incredibly well coached and disciplined, but don't necessarily have the same level of raw or NBA talent that 2018 team had.

Villanova defense:

Villanova is an okay team defensively but they do a couple things that may give Michigan some trouble. First they switch all on-ball screens. It is going to be difficult for Brooks and Jones to get any openings for their midrange games. Second, they help down on post-ups and drives. They will leave open shooters and live with the results. It is absolutely imperative for us to make outside shots. They will front and double the post to try to limit Dickinson's impact, but he will find himself with a mismatch for all 40 minutes. He must take advantage by scoring himself and distributing to open teammates. I would like to see us basket cut off his post ups more, particularly with Williams and Diabate. My other note is that we will have lots of opportunities for offensive rebounds, and we must take advantage. They unfortunately do not foul much, but perhaps that will be different with Dickinson.

Overall, this looks like a matchup where neither team can guard the other. Villanova has advantages at nearly all positions when they have the ball, but Michigan has the biggest single advantage in Dickinson (who will be the best player in this game). Villanova has a short bench, and so it would be a bonus for us if they have some fatigue or foul issues. I think this will play out similarly to their game vs Purdue from earlier this season - both teams will get what they want offensively and it will come down to which team makes the big plays down the stretch. I give Michigan a chance, and I think this will be a signature moment for either Dickinson or Gillespie. Let's hope it's Dickinson.

1) Hard to pick against Villanova. Jay Wright is as good a college basketball coach as you're going to find in this country, and his teams are always so good, fundamentally sound, and able to make their shots. There is a non pipe-dream scenario where Michigan wins this game, but its going to collectively take the entire team's best shooting game of the season. I.e. if there is ever a time for Houstan to break out of his slump and start hitting 3's, this is it. If he goes 0-6 from three again with two total points, Michigan is toast. Because Villanova is going to hit 3's.

Everyone needs to contribute and find a way to put points on the board. I know, I know, no shit, Perkis, you have to score points to win, but that is especially at a premium against Villanova. Highly unlikely that you're going to catch them on an off-night. 

This Villanova team is not as good as the one Michigan played in the title game, but this Michigan team is also not as good as it was in that game, either. My guess? 75-68 Villanova. Michigan threatens a couple of times and Dickinson gives Nova a handful of problems, but when Michigan cuts the lead to a possession or two, Nova goes right back down the court on the next possession and hits another crippling three pointer or two. 

That being said, Villanova has all the pressure. No one expects Michigan to win. This is house money for them. I doubt Jay Wright allows pressure to play much of a factor with his team, if at all. But you never know? 

2) Not in San Antonio. Will be watching from my couch. 

Game is on TBS if I'm not mistaken.  At least in my location.

Double Gillespie when he posts up inside, and force their big men to shoot threes.  Can't let Gillespie beat you, because he will.  Offensively, I think we go for 75, with Hunter and Caleb (open 3s) being a real problem for them.  

Way too many 'Nova fans here in the DMV.  Need a Michigan victory badly, and I think we're going to get it.

No clue.  I thought we were good and then we sucked.  Then I thought we sucked and then we were all of the sudden good.  Don't know which point guard is starting or whether our regular starter is even available.  Houston never makes threes and then makes all the threes.  Moussa can't make an open layup to save his life but is all about the clutch free throws.  I have no meaningful impression or expectation of what is going to happen in this game.  It is actually a bit liberating.

I’ll admit I was very skeptical that this team could make it past the first weekend, but here we are. The matchup has pros and cons for us. It will be tough for Villanova to guard Dickinson, but also tough for him to guard anybody on the three point line on the other end. I see the game unfolding as us trading twos for threes and I think Villanova pulls away. Regardless of what happens, I’m proud of the way the team has responded. They certainly won’t quit tomorrow. I’m hoping we can bother the Villanova shooters enough to pull it out. 

In a twist, they focus a ton of energy on Hunter, and Moussa and Houstan both go off and score 15+, with Moussa grabbing 5 or 6 offensive rebounds. Hunter has 6+ assists. He also scores in low double digits.

Nova shoots a ton of 3s and hits at a decent, but not spectacular rate (33ish percent). 

Frankie gets the majority of PG minutes and neutralizes Gillespie to a large extent (side note, my son is named Colin and it bothers me to a huge degree that Collin Gillespie has 2 Ls in his name. Let's add a 3rd one for tomorrow's game).

The only thing keeping this from being a comfortable UM win is the turnovers. Nova forces 15 turnovers which leads to too many transition buckets. In the end, UM squeaks out a thriller, 76-72.