Let’s talk about Georgia

My biggest reason for hope is that Hutchinson and Ojabo can absolutely wreck an offense with the way they're playing right now. If those two manage to take over the game then Michigan can absolutely win.

In general though I think it's a lower probability chance that they pull it off (say 35-40%) because Georgia is just plain more talented at most positions. I think a lot of the 'they didn't deserve to even be in the playoffs' is less bravado about thinking Georgia isn't any good and more wishing that Michigan had an easier semifinal opponent.

I'm with you that it's all house money at this point. Win or lose I'm just enjoying the ride of rooting for this team.

Wonder if it would be worth hiring Mullen or someone on his staff as a consultant for a month.

I think we match up extremely well. I think both teams play a lot alike. Establish the run and incorporate offense based off of that and what the defenses are giving you and or their vulnerabilities. They can be ran on but not necessarily right up the gut all day. We need to open up the playbook as we have this year. JJ’s mobility will factor into this game for sure. Cade and Bennett are a lot alike in their arm strength, statistics, game management style and both try to avoid crucial mistakes. I am worried about their tight end and the middle of the field against us. Ross was particularly lost in the Iowa game with his coverage, more of a run stopper linebacker. I think it will be a very close game and it’ll come down to game changing turnovers and cashing in in the red zone with touchdowns. 

Hope:

• They seem to be unsettled at QB
  • Our DEs will feast on whoever is back there
• We've faced some darn good Defenses already and done pretty well
• We have finally weaponized our RBs in the passing game
  • Our RBs are the 3 best left playing football (yeah I said it)

Concern:

• Damn that's a lot of 5 stars on the other side
• Georgia is a team that has something to prove now
• I think they may have the horses to take away our run game
• Don't love the 7:30 Kick (not sure why but late games always make me nervous)

Probably already stated in this thread, but the biggest thing for me is the mindset Georgia comes out with.  Is Saban taking them to the woodshed going to send them into a tailspin or going to light a fire under them?

Anytime you're playing a really good team coming off an emotional high or low it always seems to be a bit of wildcard of what you're going to get.  Frankly, I think with the layoff and the stakes at play it seems unlikely that Georgia is going to free-fall.  Therefore, the first 15 minutes of the  game will be key.  Much like we were worried last week against Iowa about an emotional lull after OSU, Michigan correctly went into the bag of tricks early for a spark.  I would not be surprised if Georgia does something similar.  

The short version is I expect a pissed off GA team early in the game.  That is not a death sentence by any stretch, it just means Michigan needs to be prepared for Georgia to have an aggressive game plan out of the chute and we should be ready to counter both offensively and defensively.  This game cannot morph into one where we are chasing a multiple possession deficit if we want a shot to win.  TL; DR version: If I am Harbaugh I shoot my shot early against Georgia much like they did with Iowa - if we can get Georgia chasing the game like they did against Bama they may have another meltdown.  

Harbaugh has had some pretty good offensive games when given time to scheme for the opponent.  He had Bama confused in 2019, until Shea's inability to hit a pass caught up to them.  His power running game has built it's chops on messing with linebackers.  Gattis' pass schemes have used the running threat to get players open all over the field.  I have confidence that Michigan will nickel and dime these guys down the field, like they've done all season.  Throw in the odd bomb and some trickery as necessary.

UGA likes to run 2-deep all game, so there probably won't be much of the deep stuff.  But if Michigan can move the ball 4-6 yards/play by finding the easy holes in pass defense and staple runs, those safeties will have to move up at some point.  And when they do, that's when Wilson, Sainristil, and Johnson beat them deep.  The OL, and scheme, has kept Cade clean all year by taking the easy stuff every defense gives up.  Georgia will give it up, too - the alternative is speed getting past you...  These guys won't roll over like OSU just did, but they are not 'generational'.

Defensively, MacDonald cut his teeth in the NFL stopping NFL schemes.  Georgia runs NFL schemes, with very little (if any) of the 'college crappe'.  Maybe coaches also play the 'they didn't want you' card?

I think they're beatable.  If nothing else, if they do win, they will know they just won a battle that leaves them sore the next day.  Either way, this game will not be a cake walk.

It will be a tough game.

To be the best, though, you have to beat the best. So, it's fine that we have to beat two SEC teams to win the title. So I'm ok w/ the seeding and the matchup.

My guess is that it will be lower scoring (teams will be rusty) and a lot will hinge upon how much Georgia really wants to play Alabama again. To be honest, they might not (really) want to, so perhaps their effort will be lower than expected. 

What give me hope:

• Literally the entire nation thought Ohio State was on a direct path to the playoffs/CFP championship game after the whoopin' the put on MSU.

• The ''golf clap'' celebration when the team saw they were #2. To me, that shows that there is a TON of fire in that team - and the disrespect levels are real.

• The possibility of Georgia looking ahead to Alabama. 

• Our defense and their offense. I think that is a wash.

What concerns me:

• Their defense and our offense.
• The need to play ''the perfect game'' in back-to-back games. 
• SEC bias

Went looking for early Georgia takes, and unfortunately landed on their Fansided 'Dawn of the Dawg' site -

In the first 2 sentences:

1.) Playing in the 'Captial' One Orange Bowl; and

2.) 'Michigan stayed at No.2, and Cincinnati stayed at No. 4, becoming the first Group of 5 schools to make the playoffs'

I did not read further.  Thank you MGoBlog for existing.

I watched their game vs. Florida, so that gives me a lot of hope.  If Florida were a towel, they bathed themselves in oil and stuffed themselves into a metal can in a hot garage.  Then Georgia walked in and just watched them self-combust.

The best thing about this matchup is Georgia's tendency to start slow and let the other team fail enough under the pressure of Georgia's superior talent to allow Georgia to pull away at some point.  I believe they have also had issues with pass protection this season.  Michigan is designed to perform well in situations like this, so that is some hope.

My biggest concern would be either a complete inability to run the ball on offense or Georgia finding a chink in our defensive armor that has not been discovered/fixed yet and ruthlessly exploiting it before we can adjust.  For example, Bennett seems like a bit of a scrambler, and if he is able to run for 10-12 yards every now and then, that could sustain them.  Nebraska was able to get our defense to mis-shape itself repeatedly with alignment hijinks, misdirection and tempo.  I assume Georgia will try quite a bit of that as well.

See my problem is I've watched a Georgia game, but it was Georgia Alabama, and I saw all the things Georgia did wrong.

If I watched their season of dominance prior to that, maybe I'd be substantially more afraid of them, but I'm pretty convinced they're a paper tiger. We'll see.

My biggest concern is the 4 week layoff which could break Michigan's momentum. It works both ways, the rest and refocus will do them a lot of good. The same 4 weeks for Georgia does allow them to cool off after the beating they took from 'Bama.

If I were a Georgia fan, I'd be more concerned about Michigan brings as a complete team than what Georgia brings to Michigan.

Am not trying to be overconfident about this matchup. I really like Michigan's chances. I favor Michigan a 55% chance of winning.

Kentucky Tennessee Arkansas and Florida were all top 20 rush offenses nationally. Florida was the only team from that group to average more than 2.5ypc, but they get yards from Richardson/Jones. It’s going to be very difficult to consistently gain yards on the ground against them. Fortunately there’s more than one way to move the ball.  It’s going to be fun to watch 

It is a down year for Clemson and SEC, but Georgia schedule is not soft by any standard. It will likely a game of attrition, and special team play might determine the outcome. 

I personally prefer a thread where you are asking for our opinions to reserve your opinion. You already set tone of this thread by calling fan bravado. Having said that, I like the topic. Here is my take and I am a football idiot.

1. I was very surprised how one dimensional Alabama was on offense. Bryce Young was amazing. Without him, they had no chance. And their WR was amazing also. Too bad, he might be out for the next game. We will see. Regardless, Alabama had a rough time in many games and they rode one thing that worked for them -- Bryce Young. He saved Bama. I will not surprised at all if they lose to Georgia if they come back with the same.game plan. Then again, Smart does not seem to be very smart and Saban is a great coach.

2. Georgia had all year to plan for Bama and this is the best they came up with? Bama beat them with two guys and they couldn't game plan for that. Bama has been the thorn on the side and Georgia delivered a dud. I do not have high hopes for Smart against Harbaugh just for that reason. You couldn't game plan against your main obstacle for the whole year. Now should we expect Smart to put together a great game plan with 3.5 weeks against a hot Michigan team. Advantage Michigan.

3. I will leave the Xs and Os to smart people. I am not that good at that. What I see is that Michigan does not rely on one person on offense. They have many ways to beat a team. If Georgia could not game plan for over the top against Bama and could not make adjustments at half time, I have good feelings about our offense.

4. It seems Georgia will work towards stopping our run. We had trouble running the ball against a few teams. Georgia can replicate that and even have better athletes. But, give Harbaugh 3.5 weeks, I have confidence that he is going to fix whatever trouble they had on running game against Iowa and a couple of other teams. I expect new counters and will not be surprised if we end up running the ball better than anyone else against Georgia. 

5. Cade is a key personnel in this game. If he can be play his absolute best, I think we will do even better than what Bama did against them. If he struggles a bit, I expect Gattis to come up with ways to mitigate that. My confidence in our OC is skyhigh now And that could be the difference in this game. 

6. It seems Georgia is going to get their best WR back. I have high hopes that our secondary will do well. Georgia is not close to what OSU can do. We did really well. So, I will be surprised if we at least don't contain their offense somewhat.

7. Just about their overall schedule, teams can only play who is on their schedule. Georgia did way better against them than what we did. We needed a 4th quarter comeback against PSU, NEB. Georgia dismantled everyone. Edge on this should go to Georgia. But, we played a great game against OSU and Bama's offense is not OSU's offense.

Overall, I give edge to Michigan for shat they have done so far this season, especially against OSU.

What seems unique about M this year is the team leadership and their unity displayed on the sideline. I didn't see that with the other playoff team's sidelines. Those teams typically celebrated individually or in their position group, etc. This team dynamic is an intangible that would seem to translate well to the playoffs, not to mention QB pressure. 

Here's the thing. We really have no idea. Sure, we can look at the match ups and previous teams played, but both teams will have not played a game in almost a month. That has always been my reasoning for treating bowl games like exhibitions. How can you play an entire 2-3 month season playing every week with one week break, and then stop for a month or more and play again? Now, this def isn't an "exhibition", but it will be very interesting to see if there is rust, specifically on the offensive side for either team. I know they are college kids and there is the holiday break, but I still think it is so strange to have a huge layoff before starting a championship playoff. 

One thing I'm curious about is how much that way oversized highly touted nose tackle affects our inside run game.

As a side note, one play I swear they lined him up on the edge and the Alabama QB just decided to stroll past him for 10 yards, which, lol.

cade is finally hitting some deep throws; especially straight go routes. that is huge. if that continues, we have a great shot at winning. if hutchenson and ojabo wreak havoc, it could even be a bit easier for the W.

The funny thing if the shoe is on the other foot, and you're a Georgia fan trying to figure out this U of M team you have to go back to Penn State to have anything to feel good about.

So basically you either have to decide that M is going to revert to the mean and they'll look like what they were at the start of the season rather than what they've been recently, or you decide that the Big Ten is a joke, and Ohio State is no Kentucky.

I think Georgia fans are going with the second option, but um, I doubt that has a lot of basis in reality.

I think it’s a difficult matchup for us and GA is rightly favored. GA is the best combination of offensive and defensive efficiency we have faced. Their offense isn’t quite as good as OSU but their defense is better than Wisconsin. If you shave a few off the points we scored against a similar defense (WI) and combine it with the points a slightly better offense scored on us (OSU) we win. But that’s not really an accurate measure because the O and D are complementary. We held OSU’s scoring down in part by possessing the ball and scored a lot on WI in point by getting the ball back quickly through 3-and-outs. I actually think our offense (and play calling) is better now than it was when we played WI. But GA is a step up from any team we’ve played. So I think the most realistic expectation is that we lose. But this team has exceeded all reasonable expectations throughout the year — by a mile. So I’m not counting them out.

I'm not so sure how Smart is as a coach. He was thoroughly out coached by Saban when really he should have had ample time to prepare sicne he was blowing everybody out down the stretch of their schedule. 

Saban is the best to ever coach collage football, but the talent is equal between the teams and Smart laid an egg when he had the upper hand in time for game prep.

Georgia football is on every weekend in my house because my wife is a UGA fan. Their defense is very, very stinking good. I don't care about SOS, when you hold 12 games worth of opponents to 7 points a game, that is saying something. That's good. Their defense, while exposed last weekend (Bama does that to everyone when they are locked in), will be the best defense Michigan has played this year. Or even if you don't agree with that, it will be far and away the most talented. The OL is going to have its hands full with Jordan Davis. 

Their offense is good too, but they're able to score a lot of points because the defense consistently forces a lot of three and outs and otherwise stalled drives. That comes with only giving up seven points a game. You give a team that many chances, and they're going to score. Especially when your defense starts getting tired and Georgia's OL can just start overpowering you. Stetson Bennett has looked good this year but he's never been in a position, before last Saturday, where he had to dig down deep and be the guy his team needed to win. In his defense, he's never had to be that guy. My wife would probably disagree with my sentiment, but Stetson Bennett is just a guy. He is not CJ Stroud, nor does Georgia have remotely the caliber of weapons that OSU has. 

Smart would rather pound the ball down your throat and then beat you over the top with play action, but if you can get yourself into a situation where you force him to put the game in Stetson Bennett's hands, you have a real shot at winning. One of Smart's fatal flaws thus far is that he has not recognized when he's had a flat out better QB on his roster, and hasn't used him. His last press conference said he didn't even consider benching Bennett on Saturday. 

He let Justin Fields ride the bench and that cost him. He's letting JT Daniels ride the bench and that may very well cost him too. He's rolling with a former walk-on at QB. 

TL;DR version: Georgia is a more talented version of Michigan and will want to win in the same ways Michigan does. But there is a path to victory here for Michigan. Force the game into Stetson Bennett's hands, and the dynamic of the game changes drastically. 

Georgia is Wisconsin with a better offense. The one thing I’ve liked is that the gameplan has changed depending on the team we’re facing. They knew they couldn’t bludgeon Wisconsin to death so Cade threw more than he had all year, same with MSU. Against Iowa, they basically said, we’ll hit some home runs and then play it safe because the only way we lose is if we beat ourselves. I wouldn’t expect Gattis/Harbaugh to abandon the run or what got them there, but I’d expect to see more throws from Cade and maybe a lot more JJ than we might expect. 

Can we install a legitimate tempo scheme in 3 weeks? Serious question.

Bama was able to nerf Georgia's talent and depth by going temp and gassing their impressive yet...very large Dlineman.