Latest S&P+ projections
Bill Connelly released his latest S&P+ projections a few days ago. They have Michigan projected at 18th overall, and peg the Wolverines for 4.3 wins on average (over the 8-game schedule).
Michigan is rated closer to Iowa (#22) / Nebraska (#25) / Indiana (#26) than to OSU (#1) / Penn State (#6) / Wisconsin (#7), and neck and neck with Minnesota (#17).
Is this a rebuilding year, or can Josh Gattis and Don Brown outperform (statistical) expectations?
September 24th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
There is 0 data on Michigan’s most important player, Joe Milton. So this has no predictive value in my eyes.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^
Exactly. The one thing we have most needed in recent years is elite QB play. If Joe gives is, we will contend. If not, well, we won't. I'm excited about the possibility. The Minnesota game coming right out of the chute on the road will be big.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
Bingo. My guess is that offensive projection is based largely on the loss of the QB and four OL. If the OL can be most of what they were last year (plausible given the depth of talent still available), and Milton can be a big upgrade over Shea (also highly plausible), the offense could be much better than last year.
His projections probably also don't take into account the new OC last year who seemed to not know what he was doing for half the year and then figure it out in the second half. The stats just see the average of terrible and good for a meh overall season, but it's likely the coaching will be good all year.
If only Nico had stuck around though...ugh.
September 25th, 2020 at 7:08 AM ^
The biggest factor in offensive projection for S&P+ is returning WR production.
It's true Milton is a big wild card. Doesn't make sense to say any projection about Michigan is totally meaningless though. Good reasons to think they could outperform projections. First would be Milton. 2nd, I don't believe he has any 2nd year OC element. 3rd, I believe WR returning production is a percentage of returning yards, but WR and TE yardage was so low this shouldn't be a high bar to clear in terms of total receiving yards.
September 24th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
In my mind, the Harbaugh pattern is established and very predictable. Beat teams with inferior talent, regardless of location. Beat teams with roughly equal talent at home, lose to teams with roughly equal talent on the road. Always lose to teams with clearly better talent. Add that up for this season and you get 6-2 with losses to Minnesota and Ohio State. Maybe COVID affects some of the home field advantage both ways, but if I were betting I'd be on 6-2.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
You think Minnesota has the same level talent as Michigan?
B1G recruiting rank
2017 #12
2018 #7
2019 #10
I just don't get the worry about this game. Especially with no crowd.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
Hopefully you're right. Having a returning QB and 1000 yard receiver as the very first game of the year gives me some pause. Certainly better to have no crowd than this being a night game with a full stadium.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
Its because PJ Fleck is an amazing coach and puts together a great staff and gets more out of his teams where ever he goes than those before and after him.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
I agree with the talent assessment but to the previous point, whatever combination of talent and coaching Minn has, I buy the S&P assessment that Michigan certainly isn't a much better team. Pretty close, so given Harbaughs struggles on the road, fair to think they'll lose.
That would be the best road win in the Harbaugh era, by S&P+, I'm pretty sure. By a lot too. 2018 at MSU is probably currently the best? Maybe 2015 PSU?
Maybe the lack of crowd makes a big difference though. But if that's the case, the Wisconsin and PSU home games start to look iffy. It would be a shock if Michigan won all three of those (Minn, Wis, PSU). So 6-2 seems like a fair, if not, optimistic projection.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:21 PM ^
I bet you predicted a win over Wisconsin too last year because our talent is ranked higher.
September 25th, 2020 at 7:12 AM ^
There's that and there's also going 11-2 last year with wins over Penn State and Auburn.
September 24th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
I'd certainly consider it a rebuilding year. I don't think there's anything controversial about saying that Michigan has more to replace this year than most.
On the other hand, the reality of the situation is there's little difference because the years Michigan is supposed to be really good and the years Michigan is supposed to be rebuilding, so I expect the norm. 2 to 4 losses is par.
September 25th, 2020 at 7:16 AM ^
On offense, yes. But it's also year 2 with Gattis. Also, it's really not a rebuilding year on defense besides at CB, though CB is definitely worrisome.
September 28th, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^
and DT, and potentially at safety too if they have to move Dax to CB.
September 24th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
When was the last time we weren't in a rebuilding year?
September 24th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
The answer just might lie in the latter part of your username
September 24th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
Probably 2018 when we entered the Game as road favorites, touting {edit} nearly the best offensive S&P number Harbaugh has had at Michigan with pros all over the defense except at DT.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
I heard wait till next year a lot that year too.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:11 PM ^
I think you had the wrong 03 in mind. I was thinking 1903 - the third consecutive ‘point a minute’ Yost team. That was decidedly not a rebuild.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
Not at all. After the doom and gloom for a couple of weeks after ND which was mostly, "if this team with a five star QB, best WRs ever, experience OL and killer D can't win, Harbaugh isn't the guy", we laid waste to the big ten and it was entirely, "this is the year". Until The Game and it wasn't but people were never saying wait til next year.
And even after that loss, anyone with a sense of realism knew the next year would be worse. Only the most Cubs-like optimists could have said wait til next year. Given the losses from that defense (Wino, Gary, Bush, Long, etc), 2018 was always going to be a relative peak year. It was inevitable we'd see a drop.
This year isn't necessarily a rebuilding year either though, given the returnees on defense (ugh, if only that included Ambry though). If the OL mostly reloads instead of rebuilding (strong possibility), this has a chance to be a better, maybe much better team than last year. And that all depends on Milton.
September 24th, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
Then you were listening to irrational people because we were set to lose a ton after that year and did.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
2016 was not a rebuilding year. We lost 3 road games (the Orange Bowl against FSU is a road game) by a grand total of 2 points in regulation. (1 loss was in OT.)
Yes, Speight was a first-year starter, but he was a junior. Smith and Isaac were seniors. Chesson and Darboh were seniors. Butt was a senior. Cole, Kugler, Kalis, and Magnuson were all upperclassmen.
The defense was excellent, until it wasn't. But it was still pretty damn good. Holding OSU to 17 points in regulation at the shoe is a very different result than what we've seen the last two years.
We were ranked 7th in the AP pre-season poll. So the expectations were high. It was only a rebuilding year in the sense that Speight was a first year starter.
Harbaugh rebuilt in 2015. 2016 should have been the year. The football gods had other ideas.
P.S. We were also pre-season #7 last year, but Shea went golfing too much, or so people tell me.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
When wasn't the defense that year excellent? First quarter Colorado and parts of the the FSU game (which barely matters sans Peppers and some other players I think).
And yes, 2016 was not a rebuilding year but 2018 similarly wasn't either.
September 24th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
Well, the last few years we've been Top-5 to Top-10 in S&P+, and those seasons had fairly disappointing endings.
So maybe we start off with the "disappointing" ranking, and only go up?
September 24th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
That's how many of Michigan's best seasons in memory went (except maybe 2003 and 2016). 1997, 2006, 2015, 2018. The year prior to each of those years, Michigan was some combination of underachieving and unlucky so expectation were amongst the lowest for Michigan teams during that span. And then the teams ended up being some of the best.
With Milton the ceiling could be very high. Let's just find some CBs.
September 25th, 2020 at 8:03 AM ^
Michigan has recruited many excellent safety prospects in recent years. Move Dax to corner to mitigate the oppositions best WR. Hawkins is very good. In general, the defense will be excellent.
I expect the OL to be as good or better than last year...by mid-season they will be excellent.
With a year under their belt, the RBs will take a nice leap forward...they will be outstanding.
The WR position will be interesting. If Collins returns-the tea leaves are positive and the QBs can actually read a defense this group has a "sky" limit. The continued addition of speed is scintillating.
The TEs are good.
Play well and win.
September 24th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
On Offense, Michigan is replacing:
- Quarterback
- 3/4 of our top WRs
- Tight End
- 4/5 of our starting OL
On Defense, Michigan is replacing:
- 1/3 of it's DEs
- 1/3 of it's DTs
- 1/3 of it's LBs
- 3/4 of it's Secondary
All we have is hope that the people replacing them will play better than those who left. But that is a lot of hope! Otherwise, we'll see a drop off. And that should be expected tbh.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:09 PM ^
Definite drops offs at:
WR, OL, DB, LB - Replacements are either downgrades talent wise or lack experience
Probable upgrades at:
DE, DT, TE - Main starters are still playing, I think Eubanks is a better talent than McKeon
Totally wildcard:
QB - Literally, no one knows, probably not even the coaches.
In terms of defense, I expect our defensive line to actually be a lot better than last year. Height of their power Hutch and Paye with a veteran Kemp and a rising star in Hinton. Secondary is a concern but atleast we won't get run over like we did last year by Taylor and Dobbins.
Defensive prediction: Wash
In terms of offense, there are too many unknowns to predict. WR has less weapons but those weapons fit the scheme better. I feel fine about the OLine with Mayfield, Hayes, and Steuber. There will be some holes at center and guard though. Running backs should be the best Michigan has had for quite some time. And then there is obviously QB, which will determine how everything else lands.
Offensive prediction: Depends on JM.
Its a rebuild if Milton isn't ready. We are competitive with everyone not named OSU if Milton is either equal or better than Shea.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
I disagree about LB being a downgrade, unless you're considering Uche a LB. Cam McGrone was talented but pretty green last year. He might be vastly improved. I buy that he and Ross should be one of the best tandems in the country. I think that improvement and experience will outweigh the loss of Hudson.
Agree with the rest though. So if the downgrades aren't large, which could be the case at WR and OL and Milton is a revelation, then we're in business.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:36 PM ^
Yeah I did consider Uche in the LB group. LB was definitely one I thought could go either way. I expect McGrone to be one of the best LB's in the conference but if factoring in the loss of Uche and Hudson I shy'd towards a slight downgrade or wash.
I really think if Milton is as good as Patterson (can be a huge playmaker but will also have terrible mistakes) then I think we can beat every team on our schedule except for OSU. If he's somewhere between Patterson and Speight, I think we are looking at a 3 loss season.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:38 PM ^
Yeah, I think of Uche as more of an edge rusher that usually played with three man lines so was only considering the 2 MLs and Viper. I'd agree that including SAM, it's a downgrade even though that depends on his replacement which we don't know much about.
I'm excited to see McGrone and Ross.
September 25th, 2020 at 7:22 AM ^
Worth mentioning I listened to the Gattis interview (I recommend 1.5x speed on YouTube) and the first guy on the OL he praised the hell out of was Vastardis.
September 25th, 2020 at 7:27 AM ^
3/4 of WRs sure but regardless of the reason, DPJ didn't even get 500 yards last year. Tarik had like 250. McKeon also had only around 250. Nico is a big loss though.
Both starting DEs back so that's fine.
What DT did we lose? Talking about Dwumfour who basically didn't play?
One of the replacements in the secondary is Dax.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
Hard to argue with 4.3 wins. Minnesota would be a lean to win at home but I have zero faith in this team playing well on the road. It will probably play out similar to the 2018 ND game. Michigan has some miscommunications on defense that give Minnesota an early lead. Michigan figures things out in the second half and starts to move the ball. As usual too little to late as Michigan can never make clutch plays on the road. Probably end up losing by 3-7 points.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
Dean Pelton,
agreed. Lots of mistakes early. Both mental and physical. Fleck isn’t like Franklin or Kelly. His kids are likely to maintain an edge and this game could be over early.
Afterwards we will all be so mad about how Harbaugh never has them physically or mentally ready to play on the road because that’s absolutely true.
I hope I’m wrong.
September 24th, 2020 at 8:37 PM ^
Bit it's 2020, the year of strange. Who knows what will happen... Could be a turning point.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
It's nice to see a S&P+ projection thread again! I think the projection of 4 wins is reasonable but I'm going to be an optimist and say we get 5 this year.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:24 PM ^
Seems about right, though I do wonder about that PSU ranking given the fact they are down Parsons and Hamlet, and those were by far the biggest parts of their defense and offense last year. They'll still be good but I do wonder how they'll play. Wisconsin should be good even without Taylor, though they aren't necessarily road warriors at UM.
September 24th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^
"I do wonder about that PSU ranking given the fact they are down Parsons and Hamlet"
When I look at the stats from last year's game and see MIchigan outgained PSU by over 130 yards, had a 15 minute advantage in TOP, and had 82 plays to their 54, I scratch my head at how we lost. Something was indeed rotten in the state of Pennsylvania.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:40 PM ^
Ugh, don't remind me. Other than a few big plays for PSU and some drops from M, Michigan dominated that game. I agree that Michigan should be favorites in that game at home and I'm surprised PSU is projected so highly.
September 24th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^
KJ made the whole difference for their O against the UM scheme/matchups. UM controlled the LOS and overall ball control.
Despite the roster changes to UM’s offense, I expect them to generate enough points and the D to shutdown their O on the road to deliver a 10+ pt win in the Big House.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^
Though Standard & Poors has a pretty good track record, 4.3 sounds low.
September 24th, 2020 at 8:17 PM ^
I think so too. 5 or 6 wins at least. I'll go 6-2. Lose the first and last and win the rest.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
Dude we're going to have a good year. Fresh start new quarterbacks loaded tailbacks talent across the board up front especially! We may even surprise ourselves...
September 24th, 2020 at 5:26 PM ^
I think PSU / Wisconsin are highly overvalued.
We're coming as underdogs. I like it.
Joe Man-of-Steel Milton is leading the way.
The team will race behind him. They will stumble, they will fall. But in the end, they will join him in the Sun.
September 24th, 2020 at 5:33 PM ^
Spot on with my prediction of 4-4, and then we beat Nebraska in the crossover to get to 5-4. Our true crossover will be Minny, but they’ll adjust to avoid the rematch.
Listen, I get the Milton hype, but I just have zero faith in first year starting QBs. Henne had a pretty successful run in 2004, but look at the team around him. I’m expecting a middling performance with some promise for the future (hopefully). Given our schedule, that likely leads to 4-4.
September 24th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
Harbaugh's only other first-year starter was Speight and he was solid. Patterson and Ruddock started other places before but were good their first year under Harbaugh although they had issues early.
September 24th, 2020 at 6:34 PM ^
I believe we can win at least .7 of a game.
September 24th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
I hope we get to 4.3 games played. First things first.