Phaedrus

January 22nd, 2024 at 8:30 PM ^

It's so weird how this guy is never right and yet, year after year, his predictions are treated as if they have any more merit than anyone else who watches a bunch of sports. He gets the obvious stuff right and everything else is just a random guess. It's like if someone became famous for their annual NCAA BB bracket even though they never demonstrated a higher success rate than random people off the street.

Joined: 09/02/2019

MGoPoints: 6532

LeCheezus

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:44 PM ^

Draftology is basically the NFL equivalent of college football recruiting.  It's a way to generate clicks while selling hope to fans of poor teams, selling "filling in that one position to take us to the next level" for fans of middling teams, "how do we stay on top by drafting right" to fans of good teams, etc. In other words, another way to "win the offseason" to quote that dumbass Buckeye tweet the other day.

Mock drafts are very similar to recruiting rankings - a bunch of opinions that get averaged together and treated like they are measurable data, while not taking the opinions of the actual people to whom they would matter most - in the NFL, all of the front office personnel and in CFB coaches/position coaches.  That's why I always find it funny on draft day, inevitably someone will go much higher or lower than expected, and someone will chime in with "He was a consensus late first rounder and he went at #10, wow!"...but, according to whom?  Mel Kiper and Todd McShay?  Don't you think if those guys were scouts worth anything they would be working for an NFL team?

Joined: 06/11/2017

MGoPoints: 9852

MichiganExile

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:16 PM ^

As a Hawks fan I endorse this. Also as a Hawks fan it is my job to point out that John Schneider loves trading his first round picks for a haul of late picks. Maybe that was a Pete Carroll thing though, so this draft will certainly tell us some interesting things about the new direction of the organization.

Joined: 01/12/2009

MGoPoints: 12384

samsoccer7

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:19 PM ^

If JJ goes anywhere in the first round, and I believe he will once he gets his pro day and testing results and teams interview him, he will obviously have made a great decision to leave.

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 11868

907_UM Nanook

January 22nd, 2024 at 7:20 PM ^

2 weeks ago, right after the Title game. Mel insinuates JJ's a game manager & should no way go in the 1st round, says best case 2nd round. Makes more of a case for the 4th round (Prescott & Cousins).

https://www.youtube.com/live/lwCR9akMpLw?si=MztYnoXT4zYb3cap&t=720

And I tend to agree - based on JJ's actual performance/numbers that he should go outside the 1st round. I'd prefer he sit behind a solid pro starting QB & learn his 1st season. Similar to some great young QB's like Mahomes, Rodgers, Love, etc.

Joined: 04/01/2018

MGoPoints: 15237

Phaedrus

January 22nd, 2024 at 9:08 PM ^

I think J.J. needs to sit a year because he's not fully developed physically. This is the main reason I thought he needed to come back for another year. He's a young QB and he didn't show up in college with much muscle on him.

For his NFL career I hope he gets to sit for a year for this very reason. He clearly has the type of frame that can bulk up so he's not prone to injury and I think he's almost there. . .but not quite.

FWIW I also suspect that Sherrone's choice to run 30+ times in a row vs. Penn State had as much to do with J.J. getting injured in that game as it did with strategy. He got hit hard a couple times before we went 100% run and Sam discussed how badly he was injured vs. Maryland and how he didn't practice for Maryland.

Joined: 09/02/2019

MGoPoints: 6532

Harball sized HAIL

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:20 PM ^

I predict that for the 30th something year in a row the majority of ESPNs draft coverage will feature the stupid look on Kipers face when his picks are farther off than if you had a blind dude in the studio throwing darts at a board.

Joined: 10/05/2018

MGoPoints: 11757

Gob Wilson

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:25 PM ^

Seahawks may trade Geno Smith if that is the case. Drew Lock is the current backup and played very well while Geno was injured this past season. If drafted by Seattle, it would be nice to see the Hawks give JJ some time, with JJ learning the system from Lock. I'd like to seem him in Seattle. 

Joined: 11/24/2012

MGoPoints: 1916

PopeLando

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:27 PM ^

I refuse to give Kiper any validation, so…did he back up this prediction in any way? 
 

Top half of the first round seems pretty optimistic considering the other players in the draft.

Joined: 08/01/2015

MGoPoints: 68293

1VaBlue1

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:39 PM ^

I will not be taking this bet.  I think he has as much upside along with a higher floor than either Penix, Williams, or Maye.  I can see Penix and Williams flaming out.  Penix because he can't handle pressure (as we all saw so clearly) and Williams because he can be a turnover machine when pressured against good coverage.  The arm is strong, but he doesn't think so well on the move - he's used to flinging it downfield to WIDE OPEN athletes that can out-athlete everyone else on the field.  That is the basis of Riley's offense, and it won't work in the NFL...

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127087