The Insane Second Half Schedule
I know this is sort of obvious, but I haven't seen it discussed in its own thread, so here goes.
If Michigan were to win out, it would have to beat the teams with the following rankings:
#1, #2, one of #3-#5, #6, #7, #10
If you assume each of those games is a toss-up (probably charitable), the odds of winning out are <2%.
It's gonna be a fun year, but this schedule is just too hard to win a championship from.
October 10th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Sack up. Win the game.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:18 PM ^
Logged in to rec.
October 10th, 2021 at 7:55 PM ^
We're not gonna win a championship. Let's just try to enjoy winning as much as possible.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:12 PM ^
Absolutely this. If this team can win four of its last six games, this will have been an excellent year. This is far from the most talented Michigan team. But it is tough and wins games that earlier more talented teams might have lost. It could have a legacy of turning around the program and helping develop a culture where the players expect to win, even when they may not have the most talent. That would be a huge achievement.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:15 PM ^
Hopefully one of the four includes the Buckeyes
October 10th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
That would be preferred.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
Very well said, as is the comment about "Let's try to enjoy winning as much as possible". Nothing wrong with having fun watching your team win football games.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
I want a win at Penn St in a White Out Game sooooooooooooooooooo bad!
October 10th, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
Frames Janklin will have pre-, half, and post-game excuses available. Just saw his post-Iowa interview and it was beyond annoying
October 10th, 2021 at 9:23 PM ^
I’m not a fan of Frames and don’t know what he said, but if it was anything along the lines of ‘if our qb doesn’t get hurt, we win easily’ - i would agree with him 100%. That game wasn’t particularly competitive until the injury
October 10th, 2021 at 11:17 PM ^
That's the game I care least about.
Obviously want to win at MSU. And want to beat OSU at home sooooooo badly.
But if those two things happen, and we take care of business against the other three (NW, IU, Maryland), then the PSU game is irrelevant (assuming they lose again which they will).
October 11th, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
The Penn state game is going to be day time. Because it's so late in the season michigan would have to agree for it to be a night game. Which shouldn't fucking happen.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
If you assume we aren’t winning a championship then you can’t believe we will beat Ohio state. If we’re good enough to beat Ohio state then we are championship material
October 10th, 2021 at 10:11 PM ^
I mean ohio might not be playoff worthy - beating Rutgers and Maryland by a gazillion points doesn't make you a cfp contender and the one good team they played so far they lost to.(Oregon lost to unranked Stanford BTW)
Could easily imagine us losing to Iowa in the conference championship or getting stomped in a semifinal against Georgia
October 10th, 2021 at 10:54 PM ^
Oregon only has 1 loss still.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^
True don't know why I thought Stanford was their second loss
October 10th, 2021 at 8:58 PM ^
There will still be dozens of idiots bitching when we finally lose.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
Thank God the team doesn’t share your lack of confidence.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:51 PM ^
Mackbru, you're probably right but I'm gonna believe until we don't because it's fun. Optimism is the addictive substance for fans.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:32 PM ^
I'm shocked at how many upvotes this loser mentality is getting. Agree that we should enjoy the winning, but declaring for certain that we're not gonna win a title? ESPN gives us a 28% chance of winning the division and an 18% chance of winning the conference CHAMPIONSHIP.
That's the championship we all want anyway. So gtfo with this we're not gonna win a championship stuff. This is a great team. Enjoy the wins by appreciating the quality and effort of team and keeping the same confidence they players have that they can do some special which they totally can.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
Remember when Tressel won his first natty against Miami? Lots of ugly wins that barely qualified with great special teams and a D that got better as the year went along. When the liar beat Bama I gave them a 1% chance of doing so. This team seems immune to accept the fact that they could lose which a refreshing change of pace. OSU is making it look easy against teams they should blow out. We steamroll Rutgers like we should have and the same could be said for us. Nebraska played Oklahoma much tougher than Texas did. I actually have Nebraska beating Wiscy and possibly catching Iowa by surprise.
October 11th, 2021 at 1:52 AM ^
Why not us? Of course we could win a championship.
October 10th, 2021 at 7:55 PM ^
Nobody is going to shed a tear for us. All of the top teams in our division(MSU, PSU, OSU) will have to do the same. Just go out there and ball every week, everything else will take care of itself.
October 10th, 2021 at 9:16 PM ^
I went over and looked at Iowa's weak West schedule left and it's RIDICULOUS when compared to what any team in the East has to go through. Total BS that a half-way decent team in that joke West division gets an automatic pass to the conference championship game
October 10th, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^
It’s like complaining about your state’s sale tax to another state…we know what it is, no use of complaining about it. Just play ball!
October 11th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
If enough people complain about Iowa's scheduling, then it can change in future years, even how the divisions are put together...
...unlike sales tax which will not change no matter how much we complain about Iowa's scheduling.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
Considering that murderer's row, I would not be shocked if the 2d place team in B1G East gets the #4 seed to the playoff (if they only have one loss).
October 10th, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
Welp, may as well just quit. Thank goodness for Hockey and Basketball.
October 10th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
In other words, we play in the big ten east…just like well everyone else in the big ten east.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:08 PM ^
If you assume each of those games is a toss-up (probably charitable), the odds of winning out are <2%.
Please enjoy Michigan football
October 10th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
“I know this is sort of obvious..” this is how all classic threads should start?
October 10th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
Obviously, I dearly hope UM wins all 3 of their remaining brutal games (@MSU, @PSU, home vs The Great Evil.)
The pragmatist in me says UM will lose at MSU, win at PSU (UM is gonna expose PSU) and lose to The Great Evil, thus finishing the regular season 10-2.
If UM finishes 10-2, I will be happy. A 10-2 Michigan team makes one of the six major bowl games. I can live with that, especially considering we weren't even ranked at the beginning of the season.
#GoBlue
October 10th, 2021 at 9:14 PM ^
"The Great Evil"
I haven't heard that one before to refer to them, I think I'll adopt it. Good one!
October 10th, 2021 at 9:28 PM ^
10-2 with losses to both rivals and possible bowl L given Harbaughs history… would not sit well with the fan base despite surprisingly pleasant results so far into the season.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:06 PM ^
I prefer the name "great Satan." Go blue and win out please!!
October 10th, 2021 at 10:37 PM ^
I think it's more likely that we beat MSU and lose to PSU than vice versa. At this point 10-2 would be a decent result, 9-3 disappointing.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:00 PM ^
Yes, but if you think some of these masochists will be happy you're severely overestimating the mgoblog rank and file. Or at least that large whiny subset who feel blue after a win and piss maize in (secretly happy) expectation thereof.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:13 PM ^
A 11-1 Michigan that gets to Indianapolis and wins likely makes the playoff.
(admittedly, if that loss is to anyone besides NU, IU or Maryland, it means U-M needs help to get to Indy).
So there is a theoretical alternate path beyond "win them all."
October 10th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
"If" UofM goes 11-1 there is a solid chance of making the playoffs even if we miss out on Indianapolis.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
That scenario is not solid. It would be subject to a lot of factors, and would be very uncertain.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
It's possible, but I'm far from certain of that.
All this is possible: multiple SEC teams, a 1-loss Oregon that defeated OSU, an undefeated Cinci, a 1-loss Notre Dame, a 0-or-1 loss Big XII Champion. There's going to be a lot of potential traffic out there for the B1G to get a non-champion in.
October 11th, 2021 at 4:31 AM ^
And don't forget the 3-loss Alabama team that will get the 4th seed.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:34 PM ^
How do they win the West, and get to Indy, if they lose to either Penn St or Ohio St?
October 10th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
We wouldn’t without help
October 10th, 2021 at 8:59 PM ^
5-1 but losing to PSU: U-M wins the East (what I presume you meant) if PSU loses another game. U-M wins any tie-breaker at 8-1 (over either OSU or MSU) due to a head-to-head win. PSU would be 7-2 or worse.
5-1 but losing to OSU: if OSU loses twice otherwise, U-M wins. U-M would also win a 8-1 3-way tie with OSU and MSU due to overall record and head-to-head win over MSU.
Path 1 is considerably more likely than Path 2 (in terms of additional needed results). But there is a path.
October 11th, 2021 at 1:38 AM ^
A three-way tie between Michigan, MSU, and OSU is highly unlikely, but if it were to happen, I don't think that Michigan would necessarily win.
Overall record is the 7th tiebreaker, and the last tiebreaker before random draw. The 5th tiebreaker (and the only one likely to be decisive) is the combined conference record of cross-divisional opponents. So you'd combine the conference records of NW, Wisco, and Nebraska (for Michigan), NW, Nebraska, and Purdue (for MSU), and Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue (for Ohio State), and whichever one is highest is the rep. Coincidentally, there's a lot of overlap, but you'd have like Ohio State's odds since both Michigan and MSU would be dragged down by Northwestern.
Of course, this assumes all three teams are 8-1 in conference play, with the one loss being to each other. If one team beats the other two but picks up a random loss, they would obviously have the combined head-to-head tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker formulas for anyone who's interested - https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
October 10th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
If UM finishes 11-1, and that one loss IS NOT to Ohio State, then yes, I would expect Michigan to be in the B1G championship game. I see OSU giving PSU and MSU a loss. If UM defeats MSU or PSU, then the B1G East comes down to the winner of UM/OSU.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
While it hasn't had it's own thread (there is a reason for for this - keep reading), it has been discussed at length in numerous threads that, statistically speaking, the odds of winning out and therefore having a potential stake in the CFP and thus the NC Game are, in a word, remote. Not zero, of course, but quite low indeed. That brings me to the point - this was implicitly deemed unworthy of a separate thread by virtue of those discussions.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^
When I went over the schedule before the season I figured 7-5 or 8-4, so this season is all gravy. Just excited to see us line up against NW at this point.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
Username does not check out