Initial grades of the 18 UM players at the combine. Who is going to be the "steal" of the draft?
This link from the NFL has the initial grades of the 18 UM players.
https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/all-positions/michigan/
I think, Michael Barrett is ranked too low. He will be an excellent special team and above average occassional LB. He does not have the size but should have decent speed. Someone will pick him up in the last round and he will stick around for many years.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:49 PM ^
How do these numbers translate to overall rankings?
February 27th, 2024 at 4:52 PM ^
You can check it here:
https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/all-positions/all-colleges/
Crazy that Nabers is the highest and graded higher than Harrison!
February 27th, 2024 at 4:54 PM ^
Thank you
February 27th, 2024 at 4:54 PM ^
I'd love to go back and look at past years' and laugh at how wrong some of them are.
February 27th, 2024 at 7:40 PM ^
Impossible. Harrison is the best wide receiver to grace a college field in the last 20+ years according to all who are paid to speak about it on TV. None are better , including the handful of generational talents that preceded him at Ohio State and the other handful on their roster or coming in now.
February 27th, 2024 at 7:55 PM ^
When I watched Vance Bedford discuss the college playoff previews with Sam he commented on Marvin Harrison Jr. He said something along the lines of Harrison being immensely gifted as a receiver and possesses all the physical tools you could dream of, but he was not coached well and his route tree was not diverse at OSU.
That suggests to me he may need some seasoning before he can be productive at the NFL level (Jameson Williams is an example I can think of). If Nabers is a similar athlete but with more refined football IQ, I can see why he would be ranked higher.
February 27th, 2024 at 11:05 PM ^
Upon what are these scores based? Film study and listed metrics?
February 28th, 2024 at 9:33 AM ^
Colson has the highest LB grade, but on the same section of the site they rate him as the fifth best LB prospect.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:53 PM ^
You can also click on their name and it tells you what that translates to NFL-wise. JJ's says "will eventually be a plus starter".
February 27th, 2024 at 6:36 PM ^
JJ "lacks a plus arm"? What am I missing here? I thought that was a strength of his.
February 27th, 2024 at 8:01 PM ^
I don't like Zeirelins analysis either. And if you read Penix writeup he makes no mention of his exceptionally accurate deep ball
February 28th, 2024 at 8:33 AM ^
And according to this scale JJ is considered significantly less of a prospect than Bo Nix.
If Bo Nix is selected ahead of McCarthy I will five lemons, not just one like last time.
February 28th, 2024 at 9:55 AM ^
Ha! I'd be careful because it seems like there's always a GM who loves the shiny object. As I recall, Mrs. GrowOld was the total badass when it came to lemons, so you'll want her to be ready to pinch hit, just in case.
February 28th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
Josh Allen has a plus arm, Joe Milton has a plus arm. Being able to rocket the ball 70-yards downfield with ease basically. Also probably one of the most useless metrics scouts use. Accuracy, pocket presence and intelligence are the more important factors.
Unless a QB cannot make NFL throws the arm strength argument is always dumb. And if he cannot make NFL throws, then he's not gonna be an NFL prospect. So this argument is always dumb.
February 28th, 2024 at 4:49 PM ^
There are a lot of people, and I mean a lot, who think JJ is not good. Merely because he doesn't have Penix numbers. People can't comprehend that JJ can be good and still not put up huge numbers because his team had a 60/40 run/pass mix and didn't need him to throw for 4900 yards.
The idea that someone one can't do something just because the didn't need to is an amazing logic failure.
Here's a fair write up:
February 27th, 2024 at 4:53 PM ^
GRADE
- 8.0: The perfect prospect
- 7.3-7.5: Perennial All-Pro
- 7.0-7.1: Pro Bowl talent
- 6.7-6.9 : Year 1 starter
- 6.5-6.6 : Boom-or-bust potential
- 6.40-6.49: Will become good starter within two years
- 6.30-6.39: Will eventually be plus starter
- 6.20-6.29 Will eventually be average starter
- 6.10-6.19: Good backup with the potential to develop into starter
- 6.0-6.09: Traits or talent to be above-average backup
- 5.80-5.99: Average backup or special-teamer
- 5.60-5.69: Candidate for bottom of roster or practice squad
- 5.50-5.59: Priority undrafted free agent
- No grade: Grade not yet available
- J.J. McCarthy 6.39
- Junior Colson 6.37
- Roman Wilson 6.35
- Kris Jenkins 6.30
- Zak Zinter 6.24
- Trente Jones 6.21
- Mike Sainristil 6.20
- Blake Corum 6.15
- Trevor Keegan 6.11
- AJ Barner 6.10
- Braiden McGregor 5.98
- Cornelius Johnson 5.96
- Josh Wallace 5.89
- Jaylen Harrell 5.86
- Drake Nugent 5.69
- Michael Barrett 5.67
- Karsen Barnhart 5.64
- LaDarius Henderson 5.64
February 27th, 2024 at 5:02 PM ^
So we are projecting zero of 18 players becoming good starters within 2 years? Was this made by Big Ten assistant coaches?
February 27th, 2024 at 5:07 PM ^
Surprised Kris Jenkins is not in the category "Good starters within 2 years" or higher, but also surprised Trente Jones is that highly graded.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:08 PM ^
Sort of a weird scale.
Instead of "average" => "good" => "great" its "average" => "plus" => "good"
We have 5 "plus" starters, which I translate as "good starting caliber pros" but not neccesarily "great."
February 28th, 2024 at 12:28 AM ^
Technically, I'd bet most would say 1 or 2 of them would be good starts within 2 years. But there's no individual "lock" for that, so it'll be based around many of them having a good chance at it.
February 28th, 2024 at 12:07 PM ^
Bear in mind, this is from the same think-tank who said Aidan Hutchinson had arms that were too short...
February 27th, 2024 at 5:09 PM ^
You've done the Lord's work @TruBluMich. Thank you.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:19 PM ^
Zinter is underrated. Barner can exceed his ranking with a team that has a power run game.
February 28th, 2024 at 9:30 AM ^
Yeah, wasn't he kind of the consensus top guard in the country before he got hurt?
February 28th, 2024 at 12:32 PM ^
On the Lions Podcast, they mentioned that Holmes loves to pick people like Zinter for many reasons...Skill...Talent...mentality...but injured which causes them to slide in the draft as some teams shy away from injured players...
They noted that before his injury he was rated as the highest IOL in this class, but the injury may cost him in the draft. With that being stated, IF he is there at 73 (top of the 3rd round) it would not surprise them that Holmes scoops him up and laughs all the way to the bank... A starting caliber Guard picked at the top of the 3rd round would be a steal...
Not to mention that a certain coach holds the 69th pick in the draft and is in tune with Zinter and what he can do...
There is no way Zinter goes past the top of the third round.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:20 PM ^
My heart tells me they should all be rated at least 7.0
February 27th, 2024 at 5:35 PM ^
Thanks for doing this, TruBlu!
This confirms what many of us saw. A group of very, very good - but not necessarily elite - players who took advantage of their relative experience, teamwork, and great coaching to win the championship.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^
With a group of absolute sophomore stars to fill out the roster.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:44 PM ^
Wonder where Brock Purdy scored on this scale. Guess they missed that one. Guessing they will miss a few here too.
February 27th, 2024 at 8:24 PM ^
6.5-6.6 : Boom-or-bust potential
This is a bizarre descriptor for a score wedged between Year One starter and starter within two years. Sounds like something that should be off the number line altogether, or an asterisk applied to a score.
February 27th, 2024 at 10:14 PM ^
i wish mcgregor would have stayed
February 28th, 2024 at 6:28 AM ^
So, according to this scale, there are ZERO players in this entire draft class (not just Michigan) who are Pro Bowl Talent or better. Something does not compute.
February 28th, 2024 at 10:02 AM ^
Furthermore, there are 9 players who rate as "year one starter". This is the perfect example of the biggest issue I see with draft evaluators (in all the sports). Missing on Brock Purdy and Zac Wilson is gonna happen. Perfection is not possible. But there's some basic math involved in player turnover of a given sport that should be considered. In a league of 32 teams each with 22 starters, you're gonna need more than 9 new starters from the draft.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:52 PM ^
Feels about right to me. Guessing Zinter's injury lowers his grade - otherwise I'd have him right there with JJ at the top.
I think Barrett could carve out a nice ST career for himself like Matthew Slater did with the Pats. Overlooked and underrated but incredibly valuable to his team.
As far as steal goes, I think it'll be Sainristil. He will be much more than an average starter.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:20 PM ^
There's nothing about Zinter's injury that will effect him probably even into training camp. Zero reason why it would/should affect his grade in any way.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:56 PM ^
Yet it already has for many pundits. Pro Football Focus' Brad Spielberger told Isaiah Hole today or yesterday that before the injury he would have been the first guard selected. Now he's dropped down boards. Whether that ends up being true, I dunno, but the at least from a pundit perspective it is affecting his stock.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:01 PM ^
Dropping down the board is different than a grade though at least imo
February 27th, 2024 at 6:03 PM ^
Semantically, sure. But one leads to the other. A dropping grade drops you down the board.
I'm not arguing they're right. Just that the take is out there.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:52 PM ^
Seems a bit harsh. Lacks a plus arm?
Overview
Enigmatic quarterback lacking the measurables and splash throws associated with early round quarterbacks but possessing elements that require more study and consideration. McCarthy lacks frame thickness and a plus arm. He’s fairly poised in the pocket but is average as a pocket passer. His ball placement and timing need to improve to help mitigate an average operation time due to a windup release. McCarthy doesn’t seek to play out of structure but is fairly consistent at making positive plays when it happens and ramps up his focus late in games and on third downs. He is confident and seems to have the ability to take slights and digest it as competitive fuel. McCarthy should continue to improve as a passer, but he fails to stand out in many of the areas that tend to be predictive of top-level success in the NFL.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:06 PM ^
Drew Brees and Tom Brady didn't have plus arms either. You know who did? JaMarcus Russell.
I'll take accuracy and the intangibles all day in my QB.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:32 PM ^
I've read a bunch of scouting reports claiming J.J.'s arm strength is a weakness. Have they watched him play?
February 27th, 2024 at 5:38 PM ^
These are public-facing scouting reports, used by zero people in the NFL.
In other words it’s click-whoring ragebait garbage. They’re planting outrageous takes so rubes can get all upset and go, “Look at this nonsense!”
February 27th, 2024 at 6:03 PM ^
Only thing I can think of is they think he needs to wind up/get his body into the throw for that plus arm strength to show up rather than being able to easily let it rip with a standard, quicker release.
February 27th, 2024 at 9:29 PM ^
I can only assume it's due to the lack of deep balls he attempted this year, because his velocity on mid balls has been great.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:54 PM ^
Interesting that Barnhart and Henderson grade out the same. Feel like Henderson has more power and is about equal or better than Barnhart in other facets... to my untrained eye anyway.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:58 PM ^
Trente higher than I expected
February 27th, 2024 at 5:02 PM ^
I mean, that Trente grade is kind of interesting. I know Brian spent 3 years wondering why he wasn't on the field.
February 27th, 2024 at 5:05 PM ^
Trente only wins big games. He’s like an elite closer. He also happens to have the highest GPA on the team. Total legend.